GoldFinger1969

On 11/12/2022 at 9:55 PM, EagleRJO said:

@J P Myou are correct, many of the prices in the NGC guide have not been updated recently. I think part of that was the huge jump in coin prices going into the end of last year and continuing thru earlier this year, which NGC prolly thought was an unusual price rise which it was. PCG$ jacked their guide prices, with there being some significant differences. Many coins are coming back down, and I am starting to see the PCG$ guide prices adjusted down while NGC prices are just holding steady.  I think there will be a little more of that same pattern as prices continue to drop until NGC might jump in to drop some prices too.

I've NEVER found them accurate.  The charts with trendlines going back a few years -- useful for longer-term (3-5 years) price movements.

But for accurate pricing of a few weeks to a few momths ago....up to 1 year....best to see actual completed (auction) sales.  

On 11/12/2022 at 4:23 PM, Crawtomatic said:

Are you saying there's been a run-up in PCGS prices vs. NGC for the same/similar coins?  I used to watch that kind of thing in the past for good crack & resubmit for profit opportunities.  If there's a wide margin between NGC & PCGS in the same grade some of the bidding could be from crossover potential.

Unless the gap is very wide...persistent...and nobody else sees it....I think dealing with illiquid items like coins it's tough to arbitrage the difference.  It's not like trying to sell a stock and seeing it sell for 10% higher on another exchange and you can hit the SELL button for either exchange in seconds.

The one thing I can think of is that this is another pandemic-related buying surge in what is affordable luxury.

The folks bidding on these Morgans or Large Denomination Currency bills can't move up to something like gold coins. They are too expensive ($2,000 and up).  Hence the big % increases for stuff under $1,000.

I'm sure that has something to do with it....HOW much I don't know.  But other Morgans have seen big % increases.

I thought some 1964-D's were struck but subsequently destroyed.  And isn't there a rumour that one was displayed at one time in the LBJ Library ?

It's amazing how often Argentina is mentioned in RWB's Saint DE book compared to other South and Central American countries.

Back in the early-1900's, the U.S. and Argentina each had about the same per-capita GDP.   Today, the U.S. has about 7x the GDP per-capita.   Somehow, Argentina after 1900 was an economic stronghold.  But decades later Peronist and Socialist policies retarded their growth and prosperity.

110 years ago, however, Argentina was a frequent destination for U.S. exports and imports and thus gold.  Roger includes a quote from an Argentinian official who claims at one point they had tens of millions of U.S. Double Eagles in their vaults.

Rooster !!    20 French Francs, right...what gold size is that ?

On 11/11/2022 at 5:48 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Mirror-like polishing and camera/lighting/background skills. They don't look like that in-hand under normal conditions.

But they do have that Deep Cameo look of super-reflectivity. 

On 11/11/2022 at 5:37 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

[The "High-Wire" jammies are my personal favorites. True, Roger was disinclined to accept my made-up term, but that's life. You win some; you lose some.]

I'd probably like to get -- if I could afford it -- the "Flat Rim" version only because it's rarer.

On 11/11/2022 at 9:05 AM, Hoghead515 said:

Ive been to Lookout Mountain. We were working down at Jasper TN years ago and we took a trip there. Very cool place. 

Lookout Mountain....home of Roscoe Tanner, a hard-serving tennis player of the 1970's.  Never forgot that cool name. e.

On 11/11/2022 at 5:26 PM, RWB said:

There are no HR "proofs." I referred to the pre-HR pieces that were supposed to be melted - but we don't know much about them except they evolved into the MCMVII HR coins.

I do agree with you....but those 5 Newcomer/Barber coins are still out there.  And the NGC holders still say "PF" on them.

FWIW.....

On 11/11/2022 at 5:16 PM, EagleRJO said:

Supply side is fairly steady, so it's really the demand side I am watching.

There were so many sharedholder-destructive, value-destroying CAPX projects and M&A pursued by the publicly-traded gold mining companies from 2000-2018 that supply should be restrained from the mining groups.  We'll have to see about central banks, though I think they might be net buyers now that crypto has imploded.

On 11/11/2022 at 4:00 PM, VKurtB said:

I hear you and I understand you, but neither the ‘08-‘09 shock, nor the 2020 post-COVID shock and its inflationary response has caused gold to go up sustainably. It makes it really difficult for me to be bullish on metals. 

I'm not bullish on metals per se, though many people I respect think that the underinvestment of 2010-20 in commodities, metals, and oil will allow for a secular bull market in the 2020's.  I do think gold is undervalued -- whatever that means -- to the still artificially high shenanigans in BitCoin and crypto.

While most risk-assets did well the last few days, gold did, too. 

That rich-black color...how do modern gold (proof) coins get that color ?  Is it just mirror-like polishing ?

On 11/10/2022 at 8:51 PM, Sandon said:

My coins are stored in safe deposit boxes

Check them regularly....catalog/inventory them if possible....if the bank certifies what is in them (unlikely), worth even paying for it.  Not sure insurance can covere a SDB loss since no proof there.

Visit quarterly, you should be OK. 

On 11/9/2022 at 1:28 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

True, but non-cryto, Elon Musk is worth $200 billion.  The $800 billion dollar loss he suffered?  No matter. Just charge users a nominal fee.  Nice.

That is the market cap loss suffered by META (Facebook) shareholders the last year or so.  Not a personal loss by Zuckerberg or Musk.  Zuckerberg has probably lost about $100 BB give-or-take.....Musk has probably lost $50 BB off a much larger fortune (assuming his Twitter stake is valued at cost).

Why Sam Bankman-Fried didn't take something off the table is beyond me.

On 11/11/2022 at 4:32 PM, VKurtB said:

Bama is crimson, of all types. Nittany Lions are blue.  My wife and I are starting to wonder how we’ll handle a bowl game between the two. A serious possibility. 

Not a good year for the Crimson Tide. 

On 11/11/2022 at 4:30 PM, VKurtB said:

Weren’t Major League Baseball umpires wearing FTX logo patches? I love that. FTX is as stupid as MLB umpire Ángel Hernández. By the way @GoldFinger1969, I feel your Mets fan pain. As a Phils fan since 1964, I enjoyed our little run, but the Mets deserved a better fate. 

The playoffs are a crapshoot.  I personally think 3 WC's are too many.  Hard to believe MLB offered the MLBPA a 4th WC.  Do that and sub-500 teams are getting in.

Proof (?) High Relief Intrigue: / From an old Heritage Auction non-sale.  I include Breen's comments because even if his facts sometimes didn't pan out, some of his statements here may have been independently verified.  I highlighted the interesting sections:

"...As Walter Breen said in 1977, "Proofs were evidently made on several occasions for presentation purposes, from more than one of the pairs of dies used for this issue, with two different edge collars, and in several different finishes."

The earliest appearances of proof High Reliefs trace their origins to the collection of Chief Engraver Charles Barber, whose controversial role in the production of Saint-Gaudens' design is well documented elsewhere. The first auction appearance of the issue was in the Adolphe Menjou Collection (Numismatic Gallery, 6/1950), lot 1846. According to the lengthy lot description, the coin was obtained from "the widow of a gentleman associated with the Mint in 1907." The cataloger further states that two High Relief proofs were purchased from the lady, and these were "the only two proof specimens that have come to our attention."

One year later a proof High Relief was offered in the ANA Sale (Jim Kelly, 8/1951), lot 770A. In his lot description Kelly offered considerable information about the identity of the gentleman associated with the Mint:

"Acknowledged as the most beautiful United States coin, it has always been very popular with collectors as well as noncollectors. However, with all its popularity, there has always been a mystery surrounding Proofs of this issue. Only one specimen has been offered at public sale, Lot No. 1846 in the Menjou Sale.

"With due respect to the cataloguer, I believe I am publishing for the first time the correct history and number of these coins struck. Mr. Newcomer, the famous numismatist, purchased these coins from the Barber Collection. Mr. Barber was one of the head engravers at the Mint during this period. There was a note with these coins stating that 'There were only five pieces struck on a medal press.'

"I am indebted to Mr. Wayte Raymond for this information. He purchased all five pieces when he bought the Newcomer Collection."

The fact that the coins came from Barber's collection should dispel any doubt about the coin's proof status. As chief engraver of the Mint, Barber would certainly understand the criteria for a proof coin, and he knew the circumstances of the coin's production better than anyone else. Breen points out the fact that there are considerably more than five specimens of proof High Relief double eagles known today, but Barber may have meant that only five specimens were struck at the particular time when this group of coins was created.

Breen reports the coin in Kelly's description was made using edge collar 1, distinguished by the level bases of the M in UNUM. Research by proof gold specialist Dr. Robert Loewinger indicates that examples produced with this collar are of the Flat Rim variety. Only six Flat Rim High Reliefs have been certified as of this writing. If only one of the recorded submission events is a resubmission, the number of specimens certified would coincide exactly with the number Barber reports struck. Barber may well have given an accurate account of the striking of the Flat Rim High Reliefs in his note."

Roger said in his book: "....there likely are several High Relief double eagles that do qualify as specially struck coins. The Waldo Newcomer pattern inventory lists several examples he purchased from the Charles Barber estate that had slightly different dies and curvature. Although these examples have not been identified by modern researchers, these coins were specially struck and qualify as Proofs under most numismatists’ interpretation of pattern and experimental strikes."

Net-Net:  It appears that some specially-struck coins by Barber got considered "proofs" (probably would be PL today) over the decades.  The Newcomer collection apparently housed many/all of them at one time.

Does anybody know when the last time NGC certified an MCMVII High Relief as proof ?  Can I get that information off the NGC website ?

On 11/11/2022 at 1:21 PM, EagleRJO said:

I don't bother looking at daily or even weekly spot prices just by themselves. I look at trends for absolute values over time and try to identify low pivot points (not just price drops or spikes), based on how those values compare with historical prices and research of market indicators.  That has served me very well in the past, and what I continue doing going forward. Otherwise it's just throwing darts at a spot price board hoping to get lucky, which more often than not people get burned doing.

From a longer-term perspective after the 2009-11 rise in gold, you could make a case for the entire post-European Debt Crisis as being a consolidation period.

Gold has basically been in a $1,600 - $2,000 trading range for YEARS.  When we break out to the upside, $2,500 could come quickly.

Gold has gotten a nice bounce in the last 2 days as crypto imploded and the CPI allegedly cooled.

Slowing inflation = Higher Gold Prices !!     

On 11/10/2022 at 10:52 PM, EagleRJO said:

For those who don't know about the Registry Set that @Quintus Arriusput together with the complete 1899 to 1914 "French 20 Franks Gold Roosters" it is Ranked #1 on the PCG$ registry, and it is very nice. Since we were discussing gold coins and QA's Rooster set in this thread, I figured it would fit here sharing a link to that set so people can check it out if they want.  See the following link ... PCGS Set Registry - Rooster Roster Coin Album

Congrats to the Great QA !!   A fantastic achievement !!    

How did you get into collecting Roosters (you can answer this in Hogheads's new thread if you prefer) ?

On 11/10/2022 at 5:27 PM, VKurtB said:

I look at two types of time intervals when I give talks. January 1 to December 31 for as many years back that are relevant. And 1, 5, and 10 years ago from the date I am giving the talk. When I give a talk near the beginning of the year, they’re basically the same. 

Rolling time periods eliminates period bias.  If you were asked to compare precious metals/golds vs. stocks or bonds in 1980 and were told to use a 10-year time frame, it's going to be biased tremendously for gold.  Do the same thing in 1990 or 2000 or 2010 and the results are very different.

Rolling periods is like a best-of-7 sporting match.  A 1-period time frame is like a sudden-death playoff match. 

On 11/9/2022 at 12:58 PM, EagleRJO said:

I get what your saying as a valuation comparison metric, but it's just not how people think or the concensus as you see absolute comparison charts like those posted all over the place.

I am talking about absolute comparisions....the key is what time period do you use ?

Rolling time periods sees how you do by advancing the starting and ending periods 1 year each.  This eliminates selective starting and ending points.

The charts you cite are meant to be a 1-time snapshot.  You can't show the chart for dozens of time periods.  But professionals generally use rolling time periods to discuss risk-adjusted returns over time.

On 11/10/2022 at 12:52 PM, VKurtB said:

I remember one firm, I think it was Blanchard, but I won’t swear to it, that had an over the counter retail store in the Rockefeller Plaza shops. 

I remember there was a gold seller there in the 2000's, certainly 1999/2000 last time I went there regularly.

I thought it had 3 names in the title....wondering it it was Manfred, Tordella, and Brookes ?

Interesting about the Samaszko Hoard, the 2012 hoard found in a Carson City, Nevada recluses home after he died.

There were about 1,200 Saint-Gaudens DEs and about 300 Eagles found in the hoard.  Most were common dates or in worn condition so that they maybe sold for just over spot bullion.

Gonna try and track down the finest ones from that hoard since apparently NGC gave them a label.