GoldFinger1969

I still see the 1908 NM/"Wells Fargo Discount" when folks try and sell the coins as commons for a given grade and think they can get 1924/27/28 money for it.  They can't.

Even the 1924's have gone begging lately compared to similar 1927's and 1928's because of the higher pop numbers.

On 8/24/2022 at 9:25 AM, DWLange said:

Zadok is correct that one had to go through an authorized dealer. Direct submissions by collector members weren't possible until the mid-late 1990s.

Thinking about that....it could be difficult if you lived in a rural area or just didn't have a LCS that you knew and trusted.

Who would want to drive 1 hour or more away to submit coins through some dealer you never met before, right ?

Jeff Garrett has written several pieces in 2021 and 2022 saying that our hobby has definitely seen an influx of participants and/or $$$ chasing the same number of coins (hence higher prices):

https://rarecoingallery.com/articles-by-jeff-garrett/the-rare-coin-market-is-hot-heres-how-you-can-make-it-work-for-you/

On 10/28/2022 at 9:03 AM, J P M said:

In the old days weren't the dies engraved by hand 

The Janvier lathe basically "shrunk" an individual's engravings to a much smaller size.  The engravers couldn't produce quality and size necessary to "fit" on a coin.

Reminds me of that guy that Fonzie used to help Ritchie get a fake ID in Year 1 or Year 2 of "Happy Days"....engraved and wrote so small that nobody could read the letterings without a magnifying glass ! 

On 10/28/2022 at 9:03 AM, J P M said:

In the old days weren't the dies engraved by hand and now days done by machine ? That would also change the look a bit. 

Oh yeah....the 2009 UHR came with a booklet detailing how they created it with lasers and CNC and all that new stuff.

I have extras of that booklet, if any of my friends here want one PM me and I'd be happy to send you one. 

On 10/27/2022 at 11:22 PM, VKurtB said:

Just to tie this back into numismatics, the Chief Judge for the ANA Exhibits, Joe Boling, is a retired Colonel in the U.S. Army, and he is packing heat at EVERY show where it is legal to do so, which means “not in Illinois” (and a few other gawd-forsaken states).

Can't private security at a show carry ?  Elected officials have armed security.

Bowers & Merena.......wow. 

I wonder how many Double Eagles are in those old collector sets.   If issued after 1974, they couldn't have been cheap.

On 10/26/2022 at 12:21 PM, EagleRJO said:

GoldFinger, modern coins are struck with a much higher force/energy than older coins (including a much higher production rate using modern machinery), particularly when compared to older bullion coins. I have seen a table with these force/energy comparisons which I think is around somewhere and I will try to find that and post it so you have that for the future.

Please post it. 

I thought that the 2009 UHR was struck with 65 metric tons of pressure; the MCMVII HR and the 1907 UHR were each struck I believe with 170 tons of pressure on the medal press.

Roger's books have the details but I'm away from them right now. 

Anybody covering their eyes or face is immediately suspect.  I hope the cops followed up on these people.

Anybody trailing folks like this -- their best ally is their smartphone and taking pics. 

On 10/25/2022 at 5:58 PM, EagleRJO said:

Idk about that. I know I'm likely in the minority here, but I think modern 1-oz gold eagle coins, of which I have several, have sharper detail and a better strike than the older bullion coins. 

They do....but an MCMVII HR is like land:  they're not making any more of them.   The strikes on most years of the Saint-Gaudens series are well-struck even by today's standard, but you were using technology from 100 years ago that was early analog whereas today it is laser etching and digital.  That metal press though from that time (which struck the MCMVII's) still packed a punch comparable to today's, maybe even exceeding it.

On 10/25/2022 at 5:58 PM, EagleRJO said:

Particularly the 2021 1-oz eagles with the remake and enhancement of the Saint obverse and flying/perched eagles on the reverse. Absolutely amazing coins, although I have looked at and will likely add at least one common date Saint if I can get it pretty close to spot just to have one in my collection. But that's just me.

The 2021's are nice. 

https://www.usmint.gov/coins/coin-medal-programs/american-eagle/gold-proof

I thought this might get some activity but it looks like the starting asking price, plus the fees, pushes the coin too close to $48,000:

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1250691/1907-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-MCMVII-High-Relief-Flat-Edge-NGC-MS-65

It's an MS-65 and flat-edge (no fin, as Roger would say  ), a unique combination, but buyers at this level tend to be very savvy and price-knowledgeable and I think the total cost to get bids would be $40,000 give or take.  I'll have to check HA to see where the market is for this particular coin and grade. 

On 10/24/2022 at 9:08 PM, 6334cc said:

Again, thank you all so much for the insights. Even a 300 percent increase from 63 that would put a 70 at $105. If someone wants it that badly, more power to them.  As for myself, I decided the $475 would be better put towards fulfilling my dream of one day having a 1907 high relief $20 St. Gaudens.

As a newbie, let me inform you if you didn't know already that the US COINS section has a great thread on Roger Burdette's wonderful Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle book....there is also a separate thread talking about the MCMVII High Relief coin and another one talking about Saint/gold prices.

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, EagleRJO said:

If you watch the bidding on common date bullion coins at say Great Collections or eBay, like I have lately, you will see lower pre-bid numbers which shoot as you get closer to and at the last minute.

Yes, that's par for the course.  But let's see if they cross the $2K level as you said earlier auctions did.  A 30% premium for MS-63's and below for commons is very rich.  It's more than I paid for MS-65's pre-Covid for some popular common year Saints.

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, EagleRJO said:

Lower MS common date Saints have recently been going for around $2,200 to $2,500, and some over $2,500, but nowhere near the numbers you are suggesting they should go for. Those are mostly PCGS coins where in part I think those sold numbers are high because of their ridiculous values which they have not adjusted yet and some ppl blindly follow.

INSANITY, as Estelle Costanza once said. 

I don't think it's a PCGS Price Guide vs. NGC Price Guide.  These are common Saints with minimal or no numismatic value.  Even if you value the PCGS premium, it shouldn't matter on a common coin that will track spot gold 90% or more.  I'd definitely seek out the NGCs if PCGS coins are $200 or more richer.

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, EagleRJO said:

Let me know when you find some at that 10% over spot for lower MS Saints which with the slightly lower gold content of a Saint actually should then be around $1,750 to $1,800.

Will do...even Ebay might have some at that price because they want to get you on their mailing lists for pricier coins.

Gonna try and stop in at some LCS's and see what they are asking for common Saints. 

On 10/24/2022 at 9:08 PM, 6334cc said:

As for myself, I decided the $475 would be better put towards fulfilling my dream of one day having a 1907 high relief $20 St. Gaudens.

Clearly, a wise man and savvy collector.    

On 10/24/2022 at 12:25 PM, EagleRJO said:

There are quite a lot of common date lower MS Saints sold on GC and HA and all over $2,000 recently, more at HA as they have a higher BP.

So not the hammer price, but the TOTAL cost including the 12.5% or 20% tack-ons ?

On 10/24/2022 at 12:25 PM, EagleRJO said:

There are quite a lot of common date lower MS Saints sold on GC and HA and all over $2,000 recently, more at HA as they have a higher BP.

I see a bunch of quasi-bullion coins that have bidding ending in 6 days and current prices are in the $1,400 - $1,500 range with actual bids.  Some ending in 13 days, too.

Let's see how high they push the hammer prices which are at least going to have 12% tacked on.

FWIW, I never saw so many coins in my Watchlist on GC end with no bids.  Sellers are simply asking too much money. 

These coins are mostly MS-64's and 65's in commons, sometimes with CAC, but sellers are asking for about 30% over spot which when you add in the fees takes it to 40-50%.  Buyers are on strike.

I'll see what pure premiums (MS-63 and below) for commons went for, assuming they got sold.  I figure GC is more likely  to see such coins offered than HA which tends to focus on higher-end/numismatic coins rather than quasi-bullions (though there is an overlap in those definitions, for sure).

On 10/23/2022 at 11:36 AM, EagleRJO said:

All of the 3 LCS's around me have higher prices for common date Saints than Apmex. But I am keeping my eyes open and maybe a few will fall in my lap at 10% over spot or for around $1,800 to $1,850. You never know. 

When you see them for 10% over spot let me know. 

I wonder how many bullion-types are sold on HA and GC.  I never really bothered to look since they are pretty much considered worth the price of gold.  You'd think the price wouldn't go much higher than the spot price since you can get their equivalent at any LCS or local coin show.

The only premium embedded is the value of the holder...the grade (you know it's not a counterfeit)...and maybe the particular coin's appearance.  Otherwise, there should be lots of interchangeable coins which in theory should keep the price locked to a low level above spot gold.

He is a wonderful contributor here at these forums and although I have never met him all here who have insist he is a first-class genteleman.

Prayers for David, I hope he focuses on his health and then is able to resume his normal activities and wonderful posts here at NGC Forums. 

I know nothing of Bhutan coins, in fact I never even heard of Bhutan except maybe in passing over the decades where it didn't stick.  

But I can tell you that for modern coins, it's not unusual in the more popular series -- still relatively illiquid (i.e., 5 ounce silvers) to see a 50-100% jump from PF69 to PF70.  Sometimes sellers will ask (not sure they get) a 100-200% bump from the 69 level.

I would think that the jump from 63 to 70 could be larger, even for a very rare unique coin.  It really depends on how many unique buyers there are for a unique coin.  

It only takes 2 bidders to drive up the price to skyhigh levels.

On 10/23/2022 at 1:37 PM, Coinbuf said:

Without more information it is rather difficult to give you any information, not sure why you are afraid to share the coin type and date here, it is unlikely that providing that info would cause a rush to buy it before you can.  

People here have integrity, nobody is going to jump someone even if it's a coin that they might have interest.  Unless they were already bidding.  At least I wouldn't. 

On 10/23/2022 at 2:34 AM, EagleRJO said:

I think we discussed this in the thread I started about $5 gold half eagles a while ago, but in all the years I have tracked and invested in gold bullion I have never seen them being sold around spot. Only bullion bars seem to go for a little above spot, and modern gold bullion coins (Eagles, Krugerrands, etc.) a little above that.But if there are any available around spot presently about $1,650 to $1,700 from a reputable dealer or auction house please let me know because I have been looking. 😉

Let me clarify/be more specific:  when I say sell at spot, I'm talking give or take 5%.  At least that's what I last saw at my LCS and the shows I attended in 2019-20.  I got a nice MS-63 1915-S @ FUN 2020 for the actual price of spot, maybe $20 higher...throw in the weight differential, and that's what ?  4% over spot or so I guess.

Maybe because of Covid "premiums" are higher but shouldn't be 40-50%.  Maybe 10%, tops.  That's a fair price for illiquidity.

I do believe now and pre-Covid that buying through the auction houses (HA or even GC but not sure about Ebay) was going to result in a higher price.  You pay for the convenience of buying from your desk with clicks...even for random coins that are highly available, I guess.

On 10/21/2022 at 12:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I must say that crypto has held up so far with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spiking the last few weeks.  Let's see if it holds.

On the other hand....gold is down about 10% YTD and BitCoin is still down almost 60%.  Stocks are down about 20-25%...and even "safe" bond investments have had their worst year in a century down 16% by one measure.

Gold really has been a safe haven (besides cash) in 2022, hard as it may seem.  The historic rise in rates has prevented gold from rising in regards to inflation. 

On 10/22/2022 at 6:37 PM, EagleRJO said:

No, there was a significant price spike earlier this year for coins across the board, and particularly for gold coins like Saints due to the spot price spike which occurred around the same time. PCGS values went through the roof just based on the coin/bullion spike and have not come down to reality even though prices have dropped dramatically. NGC did not just knee-jerk price raise, and instead held off to see if it was just an unusual spike which it turns out it was.

Got it, thanks Eagle.  Surprised PCGS did that -- they must have thought that gold was going to continue to rise because inflation was going to increase.  That DID happen -- but gold got slammed by the rise in interes rates (it's still one of the best-performing asset classes YTD besides cash).

It's unusual that one TPG would jump the gun on prices and the other didn't.  Kudos to NGC for reading the market correctly.

On 10/22/2022 at 6:37 PM, EagleRJO said:

Like PCGS jacked up values for common date Saints to around $3,000 for an MS62 and unbelievably it's still at that level now. NGC values are still around $2,000 to 2,100 which is about what they have been going for at Great Collections and the present pricing for a random date Saint in BU or NGC MS62 at $1,950 to $2,000 through Apmex.

That's unreal.  Common dates MS-62's should sell right at spot bullion, which is still a slight premium when you account for the 3% differential in weight with a Saint.  

That's why I say that the LATEST PRICES on both TPG websites must be used with EXTREME caution.  The price charts over time are very useful but for prices in the most recent months you really have to check auction prices.

Still, I can't recall prices being that off as with PCGS's quotes for what should be a pretty easy-to-track coin price which is basically spot bullion.

On 10/21/2022 at 4:04 AM, Abdelziz said:

It's no secret that cryptocurrency has become a full-fledged financial instrument, beginning to resemble a financial bubble. The income is received by those who managed to invest initially.  People who buy a crypt for several thousand may not get a return on investment because the market is ""inflated"". As a result, the market may collapse, as happened with the real estate market in 2007.  A few months ago, I bought a small block of shares and left it on my wallet merchant.cryptex.net. I had some expectations, but they evaporated when I studied cryptocurrency in a little more detail and realized that I would not be able to get a good income with my capital.

I must say that crypto has held up so far with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spiking the last few weeks.  Let's see if it holds.