GoldFinger1969

On 12/25/2022 at 3:22 PM, VKurtB said:

Are you certain of this?

Pretty sure....Saints better known....see lots more supply at LCS and coin shows and on-line....anecdotal commentary from various sources says Saint-Gaudens collectors outnumber LH DE collectors since so many LH DE's are virtually unobtainable in MS and super-expensive for various years/mints.

Key is at what numerical level are the Type Collectors (the middle group) satiated....Registry Collectors for each super-competitive....it's the Investor Collectors who go for coins like the 1904 Liberty DE and 1924 Saint DE that will tell you how many serious collectors (non-bullion) there are.

Thought we could use a thread on Liberty Head Double Eagles.  Definitely fewer collectors of this older type of DE compared to Saint-Gaudens but as I've hit most of the research and writings on DEs, I have segued into the Liberty Heads.

Don't own any (yet) but hope to.  The Carson City's are super-tough to find and very expensive.

If anybody knows of a total surivorship source for the coins in total, please post it.  I think I have only seen Bower's 2004 Red Book estimates and you'd think there's something more up-to-date.

On 12/25/2022 at 8:42 AM, World Colonial said:

Garrett is a financial promoter first and a collector distant second.  This is how he writes his articles for Coin Week, which I presume are the same ones on his site.  In every article of his I have ever read he's always measuring the "health of the hobby" by the price level.  If Garrett gets his wish, the traditional collector is going to get priced out of many coins they previously could afford. Yet just like forum members, I also already know he's going to claim how the "leftovers" will still supposedly be so interesting.

I get where you are coming from, but isn't a (slowly) rising price level better than a FALLING one or a flat one for decades ?

Look, I don't really care if my coins go up or down in value and I guess you can say it's in my best interest if gold and coin prices are flat for the next 10-15 years while I accumulate them and then they miraculously triple in price during my Final Year.  

But I don't think that will happen. 

On 12/25/2022 at 8:34 AM, World Colonial said:

I think ESPN airing his games when the NBA wasn't playing had something or a lot to do with it.

They mentioned "The Last Dance" on ESPN and that probably helped with all the people who grew up with Kobe and LeBron.

Was reading some old CDN Newsletters and there were some interesting long-term charts showing how the $2.50, $5, and $10 gold pieces tripled and quadrupled in a few years leading up to the 1989 bubble.  

I presume those highs have never been eclipsed, even with a much higher gold price ?

The UP AND DOWN WALL STREET column in this week's BARRON'S noted that the Aaron Judge 62nd Home Run Ball went at auction for $1.5 MM this past week -- down from 50% from what was offered (presumably a serious offer) by a private deal right after the home run was hit in early-October ($3 MM).

A Michael Jordan rookie card is under $200,000 down from $720,000 back in 2021.  NFTs aren't in the news anymore, neither are tokens, and crypto is for all the wrong reasons. 

This is a real good article -- with a link within to the inflation of asset prices in other tangible stuff -- which describes a bit of what happened to coins and currency but more so with collectibles, sports cards, NFTs, art, etc.  We basically shut down the economy, gave people free $$$, and they spent it on all that stuff plus PCs, iPhones, Amazon, etc....since they didn't have to go to work and couldn't go out, eat out, do movies or theater, etc.

https://allvintagecards.com/has-jordan-fleer-rookie-hit-rock-bottom/#:~:text=And%2C since that peak in,latest pricing at around %248%2C000.

Looking at the price bubble in Michael Jordan 10/9/8 cards -- dragged up by the 10's, free $$$, stay-at-homes, and easy money in RobinHood and crypto -- it's no wonder that the card for a guy who retired over 20 years ago got so hot.  When I was collecting in the 1980's and 1990's....aside from Mickey Mantle, nobody cared about guys who retired 20 years earlier in MLB or the NBA.  

What's this mean for coins ?  I think the fact that coins rose so much LESS and gold/silver also just moved maybe 20% during Covid bodes well going forward.  We didn't have a huge rise (like 1979 or 1989) so we don't have to fall much (and haven't) and won't need to tread water for a decade to burn off the excess.

The wind was at the back of all these frauds:  sports cards, NFTs, crypto.  As Warren Buffet says, when the tide goes out, we see who's swimming naked.  And it 'aint a bunch of buxom beauties, it's some real worn-out junk.  Now that you can get 4% in a money market fund and more going out a bit longer without ANY RISK, let's see how these things do now that borrowing margin costs money....the price of eating has gone up...gas is up....and you actually have to go to work instead of banging on a keyboard when government and/or company $$$ are sent into your checking account. 

On 12/24/2022 at 12:34 PM, samclemen3991 said:

I am not trying to argue with you Quintus but I use their web site almost every day.  I am about as computer literate as my dog and have no problems with their site.  What feature(s) are giving you so much trouble?

I think the relative scarcity of actual Rooster sales -- particularly recently -- is what is causing the search algorithim to have trouble refining the search.  There simply may not be enough sales of Roosters in the archives to do efficient searches.

He should probably email HA.

On 12/24/2022 at 3:45 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

It's all water under the bridge now.  My collection is complete.  For years, I always got zero results when I inquired, in all the appropriate categories, whether any gold roosters were available.  I tried it again now.  Maybe I will give it another shot later tonite.  I believe it is PCGS that lists auction results, but I, a mere individual, am not recognized, and the prices I see listed make no sense to me whatever. They do not align with what I have seen, what I've read, and to sellers who pay homage to the God who goes by the acronym FMV.  Why are results realized by HA listed and a request has to be made to see the ones from eBay?  I see in my notes where $2,280. was paid for a 1909 in MS-67, but why?  The same coin sold at HA for $400. Either few Roosters are sold (very likely) or few if any have been sold recently.

I couldn't find that MS-67 you cited.  I did find a bunch of other Roosters sold 7-9 years ago for a few hundred dollars each.  I seem to find lots more coins for Double Eagles and Morgans when I do searches, which makes sense since there's lots more past/current sales of those coins thatn foreign gold in total let alone Roosters solo.

It might pay to reach out to HA and see if you can do something to bring specific Roosters or ALL Roosters sold (with or without the Grade Filter checked off) up as a list.  Maybe they plan on expanding with this series, if there's enough $$$ in it for them.

On 12/24/2022 at 6:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

QA, your post is lacking in one area, don't worry, I got you.....  have not tried navigating the HA website on my phone but I'm inclined to agree with you in that it would be a worse experience when compared to a laptop or desktop, my preferred interaction. HA usually achieves higher than normal prices, so I'm surprised to read that rooster prices realized are low. In general I like the HA website and information contained within, albeit an outlier when it comes to prices realized fir areas I collect. If I was selling I'd be all in.

The descriptions on famous coin series and/or high-priced sales is fantastic.  Alot of it is cut-and-pastes from various books, auction catalogs, etc....but it's nice to have it online and I have spent lots of hours copying that stuff into Word/PDF formats so God Forbid the site or specific coins are lost/deleted, I have the commentaries.

On 12/24/2022 at 8:45 PM, bstrauss3 said:

I predict there will be an interesting, um, dynamic around CAC-Grading. With just 3 graders, there's an upper limit to the # of coins they can grade. They certainly seem to hope the riffraff (moderns) won't play, but that's the bulk of the business these days, I don't know how many caught JA's presentation to the LSCC last week, but there's an awful lot he said they don't know yet. This is not a grading service stepping out, fully formed, from the Oyster Shell like Venus. If everyone is expecting a miraculous cure for all the ills of today's TPGs, it will be a bumpy ride.

I thought as much.  What did JA say that was noteworthy ?

I wonder about the business model....dumping CAC stickering....presumably not going to pursue moderns...how many classics do they think they can grab from the established TPGs ?

I hope he has a better label than the preliminary one floating around on the forums. 

On 12/24/2022 at 8:45 PM, bstrauss3 said:

To those up-thread who say we need accurate, consistent grading, let me just point out that there's 30 years of history saying the market doesn't want it.

I'm far from an expert on grading standards so maybe I am out of my element....but if the major issue (not ONLY one, but MAJOR issue) that the advocates of technical grading have is that market grading leads to GRADEFLATION then I think that can be corrected sans having to re-do standards. 

I know WHEN market grading is alleged to have usurped technical grading -- early-2000's -- but I'm not sure HOW or WHY.  Was it just some coins overgraded and then others had to be given the same or similar grade lest you have inconsistency among coins ?  You tell me.

From what I have read from oldtimers or market veterans, it we were on a strict technical grading standard you'd have many coins graded lower on an absolute basis but their RELATIVE ranks might be unchanged for the most part.

1921 vs. 1922 Saint:  I think it is fascinating how historical, financial, and economic events can make HUGE differences in how gold coinage was minted....used....travelled....saved....preserved....from-year-to-year.  This is the background that I LOVE to read about with regards to Saints.   

You see that big change around inflection points like recessions or panics....wars....re-opening of foreign trade...etc.

In 1921, you were still suffering the effects of WW I and the Versailles Treaty.  In the U.S., an overlooked very steep recession caused by returning GI's hit in 1921.  James Grant has chronicled this unique recession ("The Forgotten Depression..1921: The Crash That Cured Itself") a mini-depression that was ended by allowing prices and wages to adjust rather than have fiscal or monetary largesse come to the rescue.

RWB and other estimates say that the 1921 Saint has about 175 total survivors with only 4 above MS-65 and 22 in total MS-63 and up.   As Akers has said, the 1921 has moved less than any other coin in the rankings over 80 years and in top condition rarity it is more rare than even the 1927-D. 

Contrast that with the 1922, only 1 year removed from WW I, Versailles, and the mini-Depression of 1921:  over 1,500 coins graded MS-65 and almost 60,000 MS-63 and above.  That's a HUGE increase over the 1921, even when you adjust for the increased mintage of the 1922 over the 1921 (1.375 MM vs. 528.5K). 

The 1921's remained "trapped" in the U.S. and were in sub-Treasuries ready to be melted in 1933-37.  But the 1922 was widely exported as economies bounced back along with world trade and plenty were brought back in the 1940's, 1950's, and 1960's during The Great Repatriation from Europe and South/Central America.

On 12/24/2022 at 8:00 PM, JKK said:

If you're right, which I don't concede but acknowledge is theoretically possible, then I guess whichever grading guide I read that in was incorrect. Guess you can't trust anything you read these days.

The GIST of your post was correct, sometimes we all pick up specific details that turn out to be off a bit.

Don't sweat it, JKK. 

On 12/24/2022 at 11:04 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

Everything on gold Roosters is spread thin amongst twelve sources. All my knowledge was put together piecemeal.  There was no other way to do it.  The French Red Book?  About as useful as an old 'phone directory: Dates and mintage (and out of date values.) Little else.  Varieties, errors?  Don't make me laugh!

What about auction catalogs or online descriptions with information from sales, like you see with Saints and other coins over at HA ?

On 12/24/2022 at 9:02 AM, l.cutler said:

It really depends on what you consider a collector.  I think what I would call "true collectors", it would be a much higher percentage reading the books. I have dozens that I use regularly, some are actually falling apart.  I doubt any of the "I watched a you tube video what is this worth" do or will read any numismatic books.  You can't even convince them to buy a redbook, they just keep coming back to the forums with "what about this one".

Some books just stand the test of time and even if the data turns a bit stale, the books are going to be looked at for years or decades.  I think of the Whitman Red Books which, especially if they have updated editions, have really good data even compared to the latest that you can get off the internet.

If you collect a more niche or obscure coin set, there might not be as many books out there to choose from, unlike Lincoln Cents or Morgan Dollars which have dozens of books each.

A book like RWB's Saints DE book has stuff that you just can't or won't find online as opposed to the books which just compile information that is out there but now it is in one handy easy-to-find location. 

On 12/24/2022 at 9:30 AM, bsshog40 said:

The TPG's are the ones that decided symbols can be used in certain circumstances not collectors. Let's say you are a grader at a top tpg, you have two coins that will grade at 67. One of them just stands out as having better eye appeal than the other but details do not warrant a 68. This is where the professional grader can give an extra opinion and add a * or +. Now of course, a knowledgeable collector can also see the difference in the coins but I see nothing wrong with having that extra symbol added by the grader. Would you rather see a grade of 67 1/2 or just a little star or plus? I think fractions would confuse collectors much more than a simple symbol. And then come the stickers but I'll stop at symbols. 

The problem is that because this is all subjective, there's a good chance if the next grade is worth alot more $$$ that the 66+ or 66* will eventually become a 67.

We've seen gradeflation without the modifiers even on coins that probably got looked at very closely, namely the MCMVII UHR Saints.

On 12/23/2022 at 7:46 PM, World Colonial said:

I agree.  It's the most logical explanation how he got bail at all. Still, if he swindled his customers to this extent, wouldn't surprise me if does the same thing to his parents, if he can find a way to get out of the country again.

Ellison and Wang have pleaded guilty.  They'll help nail SBF.

On 12/23/2022 at 6:25 PM, VKurtB said:

His parents are professors. People with law degrees who wanted to not scrounge for billable hours become professors. They did not buy a $250 million home, even near Palo Alto. That’s “hottest rapper in the world” real estate. 

House is appraised at $4 MM in Palo Alto. 

Must be in the slum area.

On 12/23/2022 at 9:06 PM, Hoghead515 said:

My problem is when I first started putting my set together I bought some very ugly toned coins I find as eye sores now. That was before I learned to have patience and pick ones I really like. I plan on selling them for whatever I can get out of them even if I do take a loss. Then using that money to replace them with ones I personally find more appealing wether they be the same grade or not. I may have to put more money with what I get to buy the new ones.  Not really upgrading. More like replacing some problem coins I should have never bought. I got in to big of a hurry when I first started. 

Happens to all of us in ANY hobby we pursue, Hog ! 

I'm into astronomy and like most beginners, I went out and bought a bunch of eyepieces with every possible focal length.  But while observing, you do 95% of your observing with 2 or 3 eyepieces, not 10 or 12.

I've got eyepieces I haven't used since the 1990's !!! 

On 12/23/2022 at 4:52 PM, FlyingAl said:

Very few collectors will choose a mirrored proof over an Ultra Cameo if they are offered at the same price. They are simply not as attractive, rare, detailed, desirable, or better. 

Aren't they each common to modern bullion ?  Could I tell them apart ?

On 12/23/2022 at 3:29 PM, VKurtB said:

This is so sick!!! The house that SBF bought for his parents with stolen account holder funds is now the security on his bail!!!!  Is this federal government the stupidest version ever or what? The stupidity is insane. All they know how to do is political persecutions. 

His parents make a good income, most/all of the house probably paid for by their own $$$.

You want to see a scam, check out the Butch Lewis Pension Bailout for union pensions. 

On 12/22/2022 at 9:04 PM, RWB said:

Wally's associations with shysters and conmen, on whom he was financially dependent, readily corrupted his original research and work. 

Didn't he make a pretty good liviing from being a dealer, author, and probably some paid appearances ??

On 12/22/2022 at 6:50 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

[As you may have heard, he has since been released on a quarter-million dollar OR bond 

Reportedly, quarter BILLION ($250 MM) bond.  But his partents only had to put up their home as collateral.