GoldFinger1969

On 12/15/2022 at 10:29 PM, VKurtB said:

I know you finance and markets guys are steeped in the “efficient market theory”. I don’t subscribe to it. I am a proponent of the “insane market theory” - i.e. the market is always nuts. 

I believe markets swing to excess and then mean revert.

We are seeing that now given that "cheap money" is ending and companies that were valued at $40 billion in the private/venture market are now worth under $2 billion in the public markets.

I think coins will be the best house in a lousy neighborhood of TINA, FOMO, etc. 

HOW IT WAS, 1990:  This was an article from early-1991 talking about the bursting of the coin bubble that I saved from the Chicago Tribune and was circulated to dozens of newspapers.

COIN MARKET EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK AFTER `CRASH OF `90`

On 12/15/2022 at 9:35 PM, VKurtB said:

Sandon, that’s what has me mostly on the sidelines now. I bought GSA Carson City Morgan’s for $50 in the late 1990’s. I still have the auction lists for them. Something’s out of whack. I don’t know which, but I suspect it’s now. 

Those same GSA Morgan's probably cost $750 a decade earlier. 

They collapsed in the early-1990's because MSDs doubled or tripled in a few months and quadrupled or quintupled over a year or so before the bubble burst.  PCGS MS65 common date Morgans reached at least $800, and MS64's at least $400.

On 7/13/2022 at 9:56 PM, EagleRJO said:

I was offering in the $350 to $375 range, and he didn't want to come down, Time to move on.

If you see a coin like this in this grade pretty frequently, then I agree waiting for the price to come to you makes sense.

It's when you are paying a premium price but a coin that you like doesn't come up for sale that often that you have a tough decision to make.  And sometimes a particular coin just has great aesthetic appeal -- like a Saint with GREAT luster, for instance -- that paying up a bit more makes sense.

I waited almost 5 years before pulling the trigger on my 1923-D Double Eagle. 

On 12/15/2022 at 5:19 PM, VKurtB said:

I put absolutely zero faith in anyone’s population census. 

It's just an estimate based on available knowledge to-date. 

Better than nothing. 

On 12/15/2022 at 6:22 PM, EagleRJO said:

The reserve did seem high, which seems to be happening a lot with gold coins.

It's increasing...gold and OTHER coins......the 2020 and 2021 staying-at-home Covid buyers are now working back at the office and/or don't have the $$$ they did 2+ years ago.   

Ebay is the worst, GC is seeing more (but I'd estimate for the stuff I follow maybe 20% tops have too high a reserve)...HA and SB and other top-end houses see the fewest.

On 12/15/2022 at 4:44 PM, EagleRJO said:

I saw this one at GC, with a minimum reserve of $3,750 ... https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1203462/1908-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-No-Motto-Wells-Fargo-Nevada-Gold-PCGS-MS-66-OGH

Yes...saw it......not a BAD coin but the price is a bit high.  Notice no bids.  At $3,200 it gets sold.

$4,000+ when you include fees is too high.

The 1910 is one of those coins I call a "tweener" -- it isn't super-rare but it's not common enough to survive in quantity enough to satiate Registry and Type collectors and move down to the Investor class (~30,000 or so).  RWB estimates about 16,000 survivors.

Nice coins !  

On 12/15/2022 at 3:22 PM, EagleRJO said:

I am still curious which coins you are looking to purchase?

Nothing right now, looking down the line at a 1908 WF NM MS-66.  Probably my next purchase in the Saint series.

Further down the line.....awaiting a drop in MCMVII HRs if estate sales increase the supply.  We'll see.....

I should have added (7) check out local coin shops (LCS) and (8) Attend coin shows from 1-day local shows to multi-day regional shows to Big Nationals like FUN. 

On 12/15/2022 at 12:58 PM, EagleRJO said:

Actually, for Morgans quite a lot of them were circulated.

I'll buy that....but still lots never saw anything but a bag. 

That was the recurring theme for decades....the minting of Morgans was seen as a favor to silver state politicians.  They circulated out West in the hundreds of thousands, but there were almost 87 million MSDs, even more than the Saints which at least got used in trade settlements.

On 12/15/2022 at 2:55 PM, EagleRJO said:

I noticed that the reserves and list prices on eBay have become ridiculous, and I have completely abandoned looking for coins on eBay, at least for now.

Does it cost anything to list at that price if no sale happens ?  If not, you can just keep it there for months or years and wait for the market to move towards you or pray for that One Dumb Buyer. 

On 12/15/2022 at 12:42 PM, EagleRJO said:

I am just curious which prospective purchase you are looking to make where that historical data becomes relevant?

I don't know about relevant but it's another tool I check.  Premiums at various times tell me if I am chasing hot money or buying closer to a bottom.

For Saints...when the premiums to spot gold get to be about 100-300%, it's time to lighten up and sell.  When they get to 500%, it's time to sell it all. 

Even if there's not much useful information for my buying.....I still like seeing what a given coin commanded over time knowing the underlying gold prices.  You can see the time periods when there were buying frenzies and if you're anywhere close to that today, exercise caution.

On 12/15/2022 at 1:08 PM, EagleRJO said:

For other than gold coins I have also noticed quite a number of reserves set above current values, and I just move on to the next one.  They typically don't sell, and the seller is then just left with the fees for listing the coin for auction.

The amount they are high is much worse on Ebay and especially with lower-priced coins.  You're more likely to get $600 for a $350 coin if there aren't many like it than you are to get the same price on GC let alone HA or SB.  Ditto higher-priced gold coins.

I did notice that unique stuff like modern commemoratives, 5-ounce silvers, etc....got bid up higher by the at-home Covid Crowd and especially if there were unique labels on them.   NGC had some nifty ones at that time. 

On 12/14/2022 at 11:17 AM, J P M said:

It is a nice coin 65 or 66 looking to me. Almost all the GSA coins have some kind of marks or dirt on them, I think they were all bank bag coins mostly.

I think virtually ALL Morgans were at one time bank bag coins.  Unless a great great relative got one direct from the Mint back in the late-1800's or early-1900's. 

I think I read where the "average" or median grade of Morgan GSA's was 62 or 63.  But many did grade 65-66 with an occasional 67 I believe.

On 12/15/2022 at 12:07 AM, VKurtB said:

All of it - U.S., world, renaissance, and ancient. CNG, Classical Numismatic Group, has two offices, Lancaster, PA, and the Bloomsbury neighborhood of London, England. Lancaster sits about 60 miles from Baltimore and Philadelphia. 

Hopefully we're both around when these collections become public.  I've always wondered if a super-scarce coin like a 1927-D Saint might be in someone's collection raw and thus uncounted in the population census.

On 12/14/2022 at 11:51 PM, EagleRJO said:

Why would anyone want to know what a Saint went for in 1986 or 2006/

Just knowing what they commanded at a certain point in time...maybe relative to the price of gold....before, during, or after a price spike or bubble.  I find it interesting to know and I do use it as a guide for current prospective purchases.

I find it fascinating to track the prices of a generic common Saint over time and see the premium soar and collapse at various times.  Let's me know if I am paying a "rich" or "cheap" price when I am considering pulling the trigger.

On 12/15/2022 at 12:38 AM, EagleRJO said:

On NGC?  Maybe you meant GC?  And I haven't been following anything other than half eagles periodically, and I am really more interested in raw half eagles anyway.  Are people setting too high a minimum?

First, yes....GC. 

Second, it's not as bad as Ebay with as many coins or the amount that is too high...but yes, the non-bids are out there.  And since GC has a pretty savvy clientele, I am kind of surprised folks are high.

For instance, I see Superb Gem MS-67 1924 Saints asking $17,000 which is what much rarer 1927's and 1928's command.  For a 1924 MS-67 Saint, you probably need to be closer to $12,000.  Also see 1908 No-Motto WF MS-66 OGH's asking ~ $3,700 when it has to be $3,200 and under.  That's about 20% too high.  Any Saint buyer spending that amount of money is going to know the market and not be that high except for a unique, special coin.  These are all pretty ordinary, not even CACs.

On 12/14/2022 at 7:57 PM, VKurtB said:

I’ll have more respect for that story when I experience it. 

Jimbo just re-submitted a MSD and posted about it here.....don't know if it's a clear-cut example of gradeflation, but he (apparently correctly) re-submitted and got an MS-61 up from an AU-58 with VAM designations.

On 12/14/2022 at 6:19 PM, VKurtB said:

You DO KNOW both parents are hiding out in the Bahamas, too, right?

Visiting their son.  Hey, I have no love lost for a pair of West Coast professors and their spoiled son.

Both parents probably know that like Darren (Cosmo Kramer's intern at Kramerica, Inc. )....he's going away for a very long time. 

On 12/14/2022 at 9:45 PM, VKurtB said:

Most of the truly important collections that come to market are collected raw, and are only graded in preparation for going on the block. Kerry Wetterstrom, formerly of CNG, told me there are probably 20 or more “important” collections just in Lancaster County, all of them raw, and none of them known by many to even exist. I must say my more “downscale” experience from that area would bear out his report. Slabbing is just not very popular in that market. 2 of the next 3 ANA World’s Fairs of Money will be in Pennsylvania.

What is CNG ??

If what you are saying is true, considering that is just one nondescript county (not exceptionally wealthy our adjacent to a major metropolitan area, either).....you wonder if that could be true for other counties, too.

Or maybe PA just nurtured coin collectors better than other locales decades ago so more people collected in the state and therefore there are more of these "unknown hoards."  When The Great Transfer takes place -- the trillions of financial and tangible assets that will be passed from the pre-WW II generation to the post-WW II generation -- you'll get these collections coming out.  IF they exist. 

Any idea what kind of coins might be in those collections ?  We talking gold/silver or U.S. Small Denominations or even foreign stuff ?

On 12/14/2022 at 7:22 PM, RonnieR131 said:

 Sandon, on your #3 above, you said that many of your coins including some rare ones are ungraded and will probably remain so. I have two friends that think the same as you. One friend in particular, I suggested he get several of them graded just so people will know that there are more 'survivors' than previously known. He won't budge. I mentioned that any coin individually worth over 100k should be graded at least for insurance purposes. No, he won't budge. So, that's that. 

Interesting.....strange....but interesting. 

On 12/14/2022 at 6:47 PM, EagleRJO said:

The problem is historical data does change as time goes by, and is not fixed.  That's why I would use current GC , HA, Sacks and eBay sold data.

If someone wants to know the prices for an MS-65 or MS-63 1923-D Saint-Gaudens for 1986 or 2006....I don't think the HA data is going to change today vs. when RWB computed it. 

Historical data doesn't change unless the data itself does (don't know how that could happen here) or there are benchmark revisions as with government GDP and economic statistics.

CURRENT GC/HA/SB/Ebay data is the best for CURRENT pricing....I'm talking about the price for a specific coin in a certain grade 3 years ago or 10 years ago or 35 years ago (RWB's price grid goes back to 1976).

Most of those archives you cited don't go back more than a decade except for HA and even their stuff is very sporadic before 1995.

This hobby has lots of down-time when we are not approaching or closing a final purchase of a coin. 

Do any of you spend time -- besides on forums like these  -- doing stuff other than the acual buying/selling of a coin ? 

Here's what I do in between purchases:

(1)  Reading & posting on Forums, including this one (of course !  ).

(2)  Reading books on the coins I collect/enjoy.

(3)  Reading older articles from years ago or even decades ago for historical knowledge or relationship to contemporary events.  Many of them are on the internet.

(4)  Reading current or older auction catalogs.  Scanning and looking for them, too !!

(5)  Researching prices, recent and years ago, for major coin types I follow.  I do this at HA and GC.

(6)  Reading the coin descriptions at HA or SB on Trophy Coins which usually have lots of interesting stuff on the coin type involved (i.e., Saints or Morgans).  The information on higher-priced coins tends to increase the more the price does.

Alot of the information I have -- especially from the Internet (articles, forum posts, columns, etc.) -- I cut-and-paste and will save in Word & PDF format so I have it permanently on my PC and can share it with others and preserve it (articles and websites go down or disappear). 

I wouldn't say it's new research or super-important stuff.....more of a compendium....but it has lots of useful information and  some trivial that might be of interest to people looking for the backstory to particular coins, sales, coin types, the hobby, financial impacts, etc.

On 12/14/2022 at 3:01 PM, VKurtB said:

If gradeflation exists, I surely can’t find personal evidence for it. 

It's there, trust me.  And there are lots of posts here (and maybe threads) that talk about it.