GoldFinger1969

RBC's year-end gold valuation charts, commentary, ratios, etc.  Interesting....gold's average price is up 8 straight years in a row ! 

EDIT:  I can't post a PDF.....Mods, can you add that format option ?

On 1/2/2023 at 9:50 PM, Rod D. said:

My father-in-law fits that profile. Not a coin collector, but he knows what he has.  Guessing there are a lot of people like that. 

Lots of people though think the stuff they have is very valuable and it isn't.  Or it was at one time, and then it fell in price.

Didn't we have a dealer here post about some elderly gent who came in with stuff he paid thousands for...hoped it was worth tens of thousands.....and it was worth MAYBE $500 ?  That kind of stuff.

On 1/2/2023 at 9:41 PM, Sandon said:

   Many people likely wouldn't respond to a survey asking whether they own valuable coins due to security concerns.  

The government statisticians, demographers, and survey affiliates know how to do it.  You either pay the people for the information and you assure confidentiality.

You could also do it via internet and/or regular mail.  You make a good point on the security issue but the Fed asks about detailed financial information -- and gets it.

On 1/2/2023 at 9:37 PM, Rod D. said:

Good question. I’m not sure if he bought them in the 70’s or 80’s. He is 83 years old.  Not a coin collector, but has a shoe box of silver and gold coins buried in the closet. I was just starting this hobby when he showed them to me.  

Well, assuming he didn't buy them from a dealer in the last 42 years, he got them sometime between 1972 and 1980.  That's when the government did the GSA Morgans.

On 1/2/2023 at 9:35 PM, RWB said:

Nobody in the "coin business" has ever paid for objective scientific measurement unless they expected a profit. Back in his early days, Wally Breen was bought and sold like a common street tart.

Well, that is what a trade group like PNG or ANA or others are SUPPOSED to do.  This hobby/business needs some datapoints and it is up to them to get it.

What do they do all day, the ones making a nice living from donations, dues, endowments, etc.?   Can't sit on your butt all day talking about how you are going to "educate the public" or reduce "fraud" or enhance "security" at shows.

Time to provide useful information so folks like us don't have to speculate about whats, ifs, buts, this, that, estimates, anectodal stories, dealer says this, dealer says that, this article, that article....and we turn it into a 12 page thread. 

On 1/2/2023 at 8:39 PM, RWB said:

That could be good. Sadly, none of those organizations have even the barest qualifications for designing or performing such research -- and they never had. American numismatics has little with respect to academic rigor. The closest it comes is the "rigor mortise" from persistent repetition of falsehoods.

They could hire a professional survey group to do a representative sample of households....like 10,000 or so.  That should yield statistical significance (they can talk to researchers at the Federal Reserve Board who do the Household Net Worth stuff, formerly known as the Flow Of Funds Data.  ).

Something like this:

Is anybody in your home a coin collector ?  How active are you/they ?  If you are NOT a coin collector, do you have some valuable coins that you saved, inherited, or are considering passing on to your children or heirs ?  Have you inherited any coins or do you expect to ?

What is your approximate family income, on average, in the last 5 years ?  What is your approximate financial net-worth, excluding primary residence ?  What is your age ?

Questions like that can be asked and answered in 5 minutes and yield very valuable information. 

On 1/2/2023 at 6:54 PM, Rod D. said:

Small sample size (1): my father-in-law has 5 GSA CCs in his closet. Original envelopes with his name and address.  Only got a peek at them once-10 years ago. If he passes them on to his children there is a 33% chance…

Fingers crossed! 

How old was your father-in-law when he bought them, Rod...or how old is he now ? 

On 1/1/2023 at 10:06 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The same could be said for almost every coin ever produced, as time goes on more will surface, granted GSA Morgan's will be more plentiful than most.

Right...there's ALWAYS more coming out....but a few dozen a month against an existing population of millions is one thing for something like small U.S. denomination coins.  When you get a few hundred a month against a population of hundreds of thousands for certain Saint or Morgan dates/mints....it can impact pricing.

High Reliefs and common Saints from Europe over the last decade has been a steady trickle of coins...but steady...it adds up to pricing weakness.

The NYINC is less than 2 weeks away....January 13th-15th with a Jan 12th date for professionals and dealers only.

I'm really NOT into international coins....but I could have my interest piqued and go into NYC to attend and be willing to meet up with some of my fellow NGC Forum folks.  We could meet at the show and/or do coffee or dinner afterwards.

Any interest from folks coming into NYC for that weekend and/or who already live in the area and would be willing to meet up ?

https://www.nyinc.info/

A 1910-D MS-66+ CAC is for sale over on GC.....label says "Elite"......EC, I presume that is your coin ?

Are you in possession of or seeking a coin of higher value for registry points ?  

To me, the bigger problem isn't Market vs. Technical grading....it's GRADEFLATION which can happen under either regime (though less likely under technical grading).

On 1/1/2023 at 10:06 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The same could be said for almost every coin ever produced, as time goes on more will surface, granted GSA Morgan's will be more plentiful than most.

I think what Sandon implied and what we've learned from other coins is....those GSA Morgans were purchased in the 1970's by people like us, our parents, and MAYBE our grandparents.  Only the latter has completely passed on by now.

Many people still have these things in their attics, in shoe boxes in their closet, etc.  You COULD see a few thousand per month stream out into local coins shops or Ebay or whatever for the next decade.  These aren't like expensive watches or jewelry that kids or heirs will keep when they inherit them or just find them in their parents homes. 

Unless they are into coin collecting or have a sentimental attachment to them, they're gonna just want to get rid of them I would think.

I see lots of articles in my professional field of finance and investing talking about the implications of huge amounts of financial assets transferring over the next few decades..but......I've never see anything of that sort in our hobby.  We've never dealt with it before, but maybe the PNG or ANA or a dealers trade group should be doing a study on this rather than folks like us just speculating without any hard numbers or past precedent to guide us.

On 1/1/2023 at 2:00 PM, Standby said:

Thank you guys for all your help on this I appreciate it. I like this forum a lot although PCGS is a better fit for me. I don't know why and no offense to anyone here. It just seems to be buzzing with activity and I really don't understand why.

Probably the registry connection.  Yes, they are a bit more in quantity....I like to think we specialize in QUALITY. 

Seriously, they do have some savvy folks posting there -- as does CAC Forums -- but we have some great and knowledgeable people here, too.  And we have some specific threads on topics or coins that dwarf what's available over at CU or CT if those are coins that happen to be of interest to someone. 

On 1/1/2023 at 5:11 PM, Sandon said:

  Only a small percentage of "CC" dollars in GSA holders have been submitted to the grading services. Check the population data for ANACS, NGC and PCGS versus the numbers sold of these coins for each date, including the "mixed years" coins--the ones in the cases that don't include the word "UNCIRCULATED"--some of which were culled out due to "tarnish", which in many cases today is viewed as desirable (to some) "toning".  Many GSA "CC" dollars (hundreds of thousands, perhaps a million or more) are probably still held by members of the general public who bought them from the government sales c. 1972-1980 or their heirs or by collectors who bought them uncertified years ago and who aren't interested in the hassle and expense of submitting them to grading services.  Many of the uncertified coins are "baggy", but there are probably still a fair number of pieces that would grade MS 64 or higher among the uncertified coins.  

That's a real good point, Sandon ....it's easy to assume with 35 years of TPGs behind us that most GSA pieces would have been submitted by now but the numbers say otherwise.  Great catch.

Had to be hundreds of thousands of people who bought them....even if only TENS of thousands of them still have them in attics or buried with other junk.....you could be looking at 50,000 - 250,000 of these things ungraded.

I wonder if the dealers and investors active in buying/collecting realize that we could have YEARS of these things hitting the market in a few years, if not now ?   As these were purchased in the 1972-1980 time frame, you can expect to see them hit the market probably in the 2020-2035 time frame (when original buyers or inheritors from elderly parents) pass on.

I haven't seen ANYTHING regarding this hidden domestic hoard and potential supply.  Anybody else ?  

On 12/31/2022 at 8:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Sure seems salty when an '84-CC, NGC MS64* is being offered here on the marketplace for $700. Not sure if that's apples to apples though.

If they are ungraded, they're probably MS60-62, say the experts.  No savvy dealer would sell them ungraded if they thought they had a Gem Quality coin.  Evn an MS-64.

I knew it was overpriced, just wondering by how much.  Usually, I see coins offered for about 25-30% above FMV.

GSA HOARD ON TV: I just saw a coinfomercial which was selling the 1881-CC and 1885-CC.....$1,400 solo, $2,500 for both. Brilliant Uncirculated condition (but no TPG grade).

I believe the plastic said UNCIRCULATED DOLLAR.

Isn't that a bit steep for ungraded Carson City GSA non-rarities ?

On 12/30/2022 at 10:50 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

@GoldFinger1969:

At the risk of being accused of bashing, I should like to politely remind the congregation here that in making a few basic inquiries on the West Side this past week I was thoughtfully reminded they were Number One, among other things (over 50 million certifications to date, was cited as evidence) and that price increases on submissions, etc., were in the works. It's a comfort to know that like the Duke and Duke Brothers of "Trading Places" fame (1983) they continue to make money whether the average collector wins or loses.  

They panicking, Quintus, they panicking !!!  

Saint-Gaudens Hoards By Date: More hoard tidbits for the next coins in the series for which I have hoard info:

1911: Until a substantial hoard of uncirculated examples were discovered in Europe in the early-1990's, the 1911 was thought to be scarce in MS63 condition, and MS64 quality examples were considered moderately rare at the very least. Today, though, there are many hundreds of choice and very choice mint state 1911 double eagles available to collectors.

Most 1911 double eagles apparently were shipped to Europe although it is unlikely any were shipped until after the year of manufacture. The overwhelming majority of authenticated and graded coins fall in the low to mid-uncirculated range – generally MS-63 or below. This is consistent with Heritage auction archives with nearly seventy-percent of offerings in this same range. The small quantity of high-quality coins likely came from pieces paid out by the Philadelphia Mint cashier and one or two bags that were relatively untouched after being received out-side of the United States.

1911-D: Several thousand coins from S/C America after 1972. A few bags of Uncirculated….larger amounts of Circulated.

1911-S Along with the 1909-D found in the MTB 1983 Hoard by Akers. David Bowers said in the 1970’s a Bank of America branch in Beverly Hills had 500 coins.

Review of authentication and auction archives show that of the available mintage of 757,580 pieces, approximately 450,000 were sent to Europe and 250,000 went to South America. The transfers did not occur immediately, but were made in large shipments a few years after production (RWB).

Several hoards of 1911-S double eagles are known among the repatriated coins. David Akers’ description of finding 1911-S coins in a large group purchased by MTB in 1983 echoes that for the 1909-D. In addition, Q. David Bowers relates that in the 1970s, he received a call from a trust officer at the Bank of America on North Beverly Drive in Beverly Hills, California. The “John Estate” was being sold, and investigation revealed a cache of gold coins had been hidden in a vault for decades.

Bowers visited the bank and among the coins shown to him was a sack of 500 1911-S double eagles. According to Bowers each coin was brilliant and lustrous. He purchased the coins, plus others. When these were subsequently advertised they sold out within four hours of the time the offering appeared! In his book, Bowers also refers to July 7, 1996, correspondence with gold coin authority David Akers, who indicated that he sold 500 1911-S twenties to one of his customers. This hoard was associated with approximately 47,000 double eagles discovered in Central America (reported by some to be El Salvador) in the early 1980s (the MTB/Stacks purchase).

1912: Small hoards first appeared in Europe in the late 1960's and 1970's including a group of 40 choice examples purchased by Paramount from a source in Basel, Switzerland in 1973. Twenty or so years later, a much larger hoard of uncirculated 1912 double eagles was found in Eastern Europe.

On 12/30/2022 at 7:05 PM, Mr.Bill347 said:

Glad you guys touched base on NGCx. I got home from a trip today, flipped on the Tele and what did I see? Mike the coin guy, hawking a 2023 Silver Eagle NGCX10 coin for $79.99. Mike stated after today, ahem, the price would be $129. So the big dealers are creating their own market with NGC creating a new entity just for them. I call BS!

But wait there’s more….,Mike said if you buy one today, you will get one FREE NGCx submission, and up to five at $10.  makes me question who motivates this? I’ll not be interested, thank you very much, and if I see one for sale, I’ll scroll right on by!  it’s a scam! It’s kinda like NFTs non fungible tokens. Won’t even get you a cup of coffee. I see these becoming about as valuable as BGS Beckett graded coins, Happy New Year!

Hopefully, Bill, the rise in interest rates will put an end to the bulk of the NFT insanity and the excesses in hobbies like coins.

That said, there's been pricing excesses on these coin shows for years.  I've documented the 25-30% above FMV for gold and silver coins from Rick T.  At least he is telling a good story and if he gets people into this hobby who take it seriously, it might be worth it.  But $129 for that ASE sounds like gouging, even if $79 is pricey but within reason.

BTW..have these coin guys on TV been a mainstay on TV since the late-1970's or are they a recent happening ?  I think I've seen them on-and-off for about the last 10-15 years but I can't recall before that.

Franklin Gradeflation:  Just wanted to note for the record that I re-read the entire 2015-16 CU Franklin Gradeflation thread ATS a few days ago.  

The reason for the upgrades was largely NOT a re-evaluation of toning.... though there was a question if the toning was actually HIDING other flaws as opposed to generating positive views of the coin and helping the grade.  I believe most of the instances were in the 2010-15 time frame, with a few submissions before then when toning may not have been a plus, in fact, a negative for grading.  But the owners were experienced collectors, savvy about the market in general and very much so about Franklin Halfs, and were not "caught" by a change in how the market perceived toning on the grade.

The big factor, as we stated above, was that coins that were non-FBL were suddenly FBL and that's where the Big $$$ were generated mostly, not the re-grade higher with or without CAC.

On 12/29/2022 at 7:40 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

I like reading or going through short documents, a few pages, and perusing auction catalogues and the like on my desktop but I just can't do the phone or tablet thing for leisurely reading, I much prefer hard copy for that. I'll save everything I can get online to a server but I'll print quite a bit as well and organize it in binders. I spend way too much time in front of a screen at work, getting away for awhile is great. 

I'm actually with you, Mike.  I spend so much time Mon-Fri watching screens that when the weekend comes I want to read BARRONS and The WSJ in my hand with paper.

This is a book I already have and read and I thought it would be nice to have the same thing on my smartphone for research and quick commentary reasons. I was also going to re-read it and figured since there's no newer edition, may as well do a change-up and get the online/e-book version this time.

I'm thinking of getting 1 or 2 books in Kindle/e-book format.  Are they EXACTLY what you get in the print copies ?

Never got a Kindle book, but I do like reading book and other documents in PDF format on my smarpthone.

Has anybody bought any of the Michael Fuljenz Double Eagle books from the late-1990's or early-2000's ?

Wondering if they have still-useful information or are outdated.

On 12/28/2022 at 12:22 PM, Standby said:

I have a bunch of auction catalogs as well as reading auction lot description. I believe a ton of information can be extrapolated from them.

LOVE auction catalogs....historical information and still-relevant commentaries.  They're great historical talking pieces, too.    

You can also get lots of great information from multiple catalogs in the commentaries from high-priced or famous online auctions from Heritage.  I spent lots of hours punching up the "best" or highest-priced or 2nd-highest for numerous Saint-Gaudens DEs so I could gather information and commentary, including from David Akers.  If you CAN'T find a specific or dated auction catalog, you can get the gist of the key commentaries from the HA database for many coins.

On 12/28/2022 at 12:22 PM, Standby said:

BTW I demand nothing of anyone ever especially amongst fellow collectors. Why be so pompous. That's a major turn off and likely is part of what thins the crowd. Nonetheless we must tolerate others dispositions if we are to be civil.

If we all agreed with one another.... how would we learn, right ?  Totally agree....for the most part, I think the civility here is excellent.  Things CAN get heated at times, but that is to be expected.

When in doubt....follow the maxim.....criticize the coin....not the person.