GoldFinger1969

On 1/14/2023 at 7:36 PM, zadok said:

...while ur comparing, compare the number of copies sold for each....

I have no idea of how many each sold but I'd be shocked if "1921" didn't sell alot more:  it's a broader economic study...it's not a narrow niche like SGDEs.........it cost 70% less than RWB's book....and I'm sure Grant bought a bunch to distribute to his clients since he runs a well-respected financial newsletter and was the original CURRENT YIELD columnist for BARRON's before venturing off on his own.

I actually applied for a job with him decades ago after subscribing to his newsletter.

On 1/14/2023 at 6:38 PM, RWB said:

Grant's book is heavily into the so-called "Austrian School" of economics founded on Carl Menger and Ludwig von Mises (pr: fon Mee' zez). This belief group avoids data, measurement, cause-effect and careful examination of facts in favor of a priori "logic." The result is usually a highly skewed and inaccurate presentation that reads more like a marketing pitch for some untested remedy for Alzheimer's than anything of meaningful utility. Grant's attempt is an good idea lost in his effort to squeeze a lot of conflicting data into a tiny economic construct. Certainly give it a read -- it's not dense and requires little thought. Just go past the hyperbole and twisted use of anecdote (like the NY $73 million stuff), and try to pull out something useful. (If you want factual material go to the first couple of chapters of my new book, Saudi Gold and other Tales from the Mint. This describes the various gold standards and how they worked - or didn't work.)

I'm reading the Liberty DE book and the 1921 book at the same time. 

Grant's book has lots of anectdotes, but it also has lots of facts.  The biggest problem is that modern NBER and BLS/DOC data didn't begin until the late-1920's.  So unemployment, GDP, inflation, and other data points are from various sources and often not comparable over many years.

I'm taking notes....jotting down little facts...and will do likewise with relevant passages from your book.  Then I'll compare and post here. 

Am I doing this right -- I clicked on the 1908-S which says it is CAC (far right column) but after scrolling through the TrueView... I saw the coin in the actual holder but no CAC sticker.

What's up with that ?

The reason I ask is beause David Akers said that the 1908-S Norweb Saint MS-67 CAC was the most beautiful Saint he had ever seen and the one he most regretted selling (not sure who owns it today).

It COULD be the lighting -- I know it can greatly affect photographic appearance -- but this is the most lustrous and reflective Saint I've ever seen, including the UHRs and HR's.

On 1/14/2023 at 1:30 PM, Cat Bath said:

Elite set made public.

https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/20-gold-major-sets/st-gaudens-20-gold-major-varieties-1933-patterns-1907/alltimeset/295475

Wow...I am not an expert on registry sets or scores -- heck, I'm not even at the Novice/Beginner level  -- but that is one DAMN fantastic accumulation of Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles !! 

Congratulations to our friend EC on a history-making collection. 

Hope some of the gold veterans and registry experts here chime in. 

On 1/14/2023 at 2:46 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

Not just the $500K coins have shot up in price the last couple of years.  As all ships rise with a rising tide, now, more than this, just locating desirable coins has affected collecting strategies in a big way.

The lower-priced stuff rose more during Covid....folks with stay-at-home paychecks and government checks spent it on stuff they could afford, mostly $50 - $1,000 stuff. 

Higher-priced didn't rise as much whether coins, bullion, or paper money.

I would like to have a Morgan and a Saint that are each worn so that I can hold them in my hand, if not carry in my pocket (good way to lose 'em ).

An AU common Morgan should cost $30 or less, but an AU common Saint is gonna cost ~ $2,000.

Better make sure the pockets don't have any holes.....

On 1/14/2023 at 10:28 AM, olympicsos said:

The time to buy Saints was before the pandemic.

I did....at FUN 2020.  A few weeks before the pandemic really hit. 

But...you could have bought Saints or gold for YEARS in the 1990's and up to about 2002 for an average of $350/oz.  

NOBODY wanted gold....remember the Internet Mania and gold falling to $280 ?  I bought some gold for clients back then...they claimed I was costing them money....a year or two later they were thanking me....5 years later they were ecstatic.

I believe even MS-65 Saints in 1999-2000 were only about $500-$600 or so.  I bet you could get MS-66's for under $1,000.

On 1/14/2023 at 12:24 AM, VKurtB said:

For numismatic dealers, the next move in gold is ABSOLUTELY ALWAYS “to the moon”. It’s part of their DNA. 

I'll bet they were OLDER dealers who were active in the 1970's.  And it's just a "matter of time" before we get another huge increase in gold prices because of all the money being printed or inflation that is being suppressed or government spending that is out of control....etc....etc....etc.  .

You probably remember the spectacular forecasters of that time -- like Howard Ruff of "Ruff Times" -- who still were being sought out decades later even after gold had ceased to be a good investment.

Gold having many years of flat or declining prices is actually GOOD FOR US because we can get coins that we want over time at good prices.

On 1/13/2023 at 6:50 PM, VKurtB said:

They were indeed, including literally EVERY dealer in the major show circuit. 

I don't know why (mostly) numismatic coin dealers would have been making bullion price predictions.  Idiotic.

Dealers to me would only be able to gauge numismatic demand for coins, like Saints or Morgans, if they are seeing RETAIL buying.  They aren't watching the gold market 24/7 -- and even those who do are mostly guessing. 

I'm not as concerned with historical accuracy to the nth degree.  I think exhibits are mostly EDUCATIONAL and designed to SPUR INTEREST in our hobby.  That said, if something is clearly false or questionable, it shouldn't be in there.

I believe BillJones here had an exhibit at FUN 2020 which I found very informative.

Do you have a smartphone ?  Angle the quarter against something at 30 degrees....make sure lighting is not causing reflectivity....take a picture with normal, standard camera settings.

Should be much clearer than that above. 

On 1/13/2023 at 6:42 PM, VKurtB said:

Charmy’s and my taste in wines match well. But since my cerebral hemorrhage in 2009, my docs have me on an extremely low alcohol intake regimen. I have to be very careful with my intake. 

I thought wine was good for some health issues like blood, cholesterol, etc. (i.e, the French).

On 1/13/2023 at 6:21 PM, VKurtB said:

You should have been at my August 2011 ANA convention talk telling everyone that gold was extremely risky from that point. The collapse literally began two trading days later. It showed that the money supply and gold prices are/were utterly independent of each other - no relation whatsoever. 

I read your posts about that, nice call ! 

I think after a 6-fold run-up in 11 years smart investors should have been cautious.  But I'm also sure that the carnival barkers were predicting $2,000 and then on to $2,500 or $3,000...probably extrapolating (incorrectly) from the once-in-a-lifetime 1970's experience.

On 1/13/2023 at 2:38 PM, VKurtB said:

Gold has a very usual pattern. It goes up extremely fast and then usually erodes slowly over a long period of time. 

We really only have 2 time periods of big gold moves to study:  1973-80, following decades of price-fixing.....and 2000-11 after a 20 year time-out.  Gold didn't even move during the 1989-90 Coin Bubble.

So after a 20-fold rise in gold's price in 8 years, it paused/declined 20 years.  After a 6-fold rise in 11 years, it has paused over a decade and counting.   It moved in a 25-35% band in the 1980's and 1990's; it has moved in a 25-35% band since 2011. 

Gold will move when it does but IMO it has definitely waited long enough so that we can have lift-off at any time.

On 1/13/2023 at 1:24 PM, zadok said:

...velociraptor fast of just t-rex fast?....

Indominus Rex fast !! 

In general on a "ding" or gash on an MS-66.....we have our own EC here who owns the only 1933 DE.  It has that gash on the leg but not the face.  It's an MS-65.

I think you probably can't have a noticeable blemish that stands out to get Superb Gem (MS-67 or above)....but it CAN be there on an MS-65 or MS-66 so long as it's not in a critical area.  Prime field areas where it's easily seen detract more than lower edges of the coin like a big Saint or Morgan.  But this gets to the whole Market vs. Technical grading thing....I believe strict technical grading might (not 100% sure but might) prohibit a high grade.

I'm not as much of an expert on small coins where the same-sized ding is proportionately much larger.

On 1/12/2023 at 10:42 AM, RWB said:

I've heard that good coin photos can be taken with a shoe ....

By who, Maxwell Smart  ?  

On 1/13/2023 at 6:28 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Ugh.   I did manage to pick up a few small gold pieces a few months back when gold dipped under $1,700. At this point I'm not going to worry about, if I see a piece I like or that fits one of my collecting areas I'll just pick it up if priced fairly and I have enough mad money tucked away. 

Look, I don't think one should REALLY care if you buy gold at $1,700 or $1,900 or even $2,000 an ounce.

You DON'T want to be buying or have to be buying (chasing) when it crosses $3,000...whether that is next year or 2025 or whenever. 

Gold had a HUGE rise from 2000-11 when it went up 6-fold.  It's been basing and burning off the excess since.  It could take a few more months before a big up-move...or a few years....heck, MAYBE even a decade.  I think it will take less than that but it's possible.

When gold does move again, it will probably move very fast.

January 2023 Saint Sales (rounded off):   

A 1927 NGC MS-65 for $2,300

A 1911-S MS-64 CAC NGC for $3,030

A 1911-D MS-64 CAC NGC for $3,060

A 1911-D AU-55 (basically gold bullion ) for $2,045

A 1910 MS-63 for $2,250

A 1908 NM MS-63 for $2,060

A 1908 NM MS-66 NGC for $3,600 (1 bidder)

A 1908 NM MS-65 CAC for $2,880 (lots of bidders)

Back Over $1,900....

RWB, thanks for the help I just haven't had the time to do the conversion.

I'd love to see an exhibit on The Gold Standard, gold coins, Gold Certificates, international trade, etc. 

I can just see it now....Kurt being led away by armed security as he tries to take a hammer to the display cases !! 

On 1/12/2023 at 10:38 AM, RWB said:

No. It's not something I keep track of. It just crosses my feeble mind from time to time -- mostly after attending a coin club or show.

I think the intentions are good with these displays -- they're not looking to sell something, right ?  Sometimes people use dubious facts or stories in their narratives.

On 1/10/2023 at 9:08 PM, RWB said:

Do exhibit judges deduct of this kind of content, or do they ignore accuracy in favor of nice photos and clever content arrangement?

I don't want to see MATERIALLY false information....but a bit of storytelling, properly understood, and so identified, is OK.

Now....for an educational exhibit....since it's not supposed to result in a sale....since you're just educating and not selling a story that goes along with a hot coin.....I think accuracy is prioritized.

Can you give an example of a factually INNACURATE educational display that rubbed you the wrong way ?   The ones I saw at FUN 2020 and a local Barber Coin display in late-2019 were pretty good.