GoldFinger1969

On 8/14/2022 at 4:23 PM, FlyingAl said:

I have to disagree with this, because you just proved this statement false unfortunately. If you look at your scenario, this best time to buy was the mid 1970s (gold low premium low) and the worst time to but was 1989 (premium high gold low). The best time to sell is 1989 (premium high and gold low) and the worst time to sell is 1976-77 (gold low premium low). So the best time to buy numismatic gold is when the gold price is low and the premium is low. 

Here's some charts that provide more color.  As I said, it's not a situation where my statements are all right (or wrong) nor yours.  But buy and large, you want to avoid the big premium EXCEPT when bullion has based low for a while.

One thing I think we can agree on:  while Saints can go up-or-down based on gold movements (depending how much numismatic and bullion value the coin has), you can lose MUCH MORE from premiums disappearing than from the a drop in the price of gold.

On 8/15/2022 at 9:03 AM, Oldhoopster said:

I was given similar advice when I started collecting as kid 50+ years ago.  Read everything you can, ask questions, and look at as many coins as possible (at shows, local dealers, books, auction catalogs).  For some unknown reason, I actually listened to that advice and it has helped me over the last few decades in this hobby.

It's never too late to jump on the bandwagon

The information on many threads here and on other sites is invaluable.  The back-and-forth....as long as you can separate the opinions from facts, it's invaluable....look at all the information a Saint Double Eagle fan get from the RWB Saints Thread, interacting with Roger, hearing other experts chime in, etc.

Outside of a conference on Saints 40 years ago, I don't know how you would get all that information unless you had accumulated it over many years.

Same thing with other niche coins that I don't follow.  The internet brings together dozens or hundreds of experts all in one place that was impossible before the 2000's.

On 8/14/2022 at 7:11 PM, World Colonial said:

I buy fewer books generally (almost none now)

Unless there are new books coming out on Saints and/or Double Eagles, it's UNLIKELY I'll be buying new books on that series.

I would gladly buy a 2nd Edition of Bower's DE book if they ever do it....I have some Morgans and will probably buy more in the future so getting the 7th Edition (8th ?) might be worthwhile since I only have the 4th Edition.  I don't expect tons more information (except udpated prices) but would hope for a new chapter or two and updated paragraphs throughout. 

If I knew that, I'd run out and get the latest edition. 

On 8/15/2022 at 9:25 AM, Oldhoopster said:

Once they're discarded, you can't get them back.

True...but if you still think there's a chance somebody might want that information contained in the box, then take some smartphone pics on your phone and save them to a Coin Folder.  Back it up, too !  

On 8/14/2022 at 5:09 PM, World Colonial said:

I agree, at least once it moves past something like the Red Book.

I include the Red Book or any other book primers for beginners.

As an example, I probably consult Roger's SAINTS book every few weeks.  If I was more active buying, I'd probably check it more often.

40 years ago, you only had books or magazines.  Today, with the internet and message forums like this, you have lots more choices.  I still think books have value. 

On 8/14/2022 at 6:08 PM, Ohnoimbroke said:

I'm new to coin collecting. I have been collecting old graded star notes . I find myself looking at my stuff daily . Same box of notes , Now graded coins . Is that normal ? I can't seem to keep my hands off 

Enjoy them.  They're not investments, they're a hobby.

I like to look at my premium bills and coins every now-and-then, too. 

On 8/14/2022 at 4:23 PM, FlyingAl said:

I have to disagree with this, because you just proved this statement false unfortunately. If you look at your scenario, this best time to buy was the mid 1970s (gold low premium low) and the worst time to but was 1989 (premium high gold low). The best time to sell is 1989 (premium high and gold low) and the worst time to sell is 1976-77 (gold low premium low).  So the best time to buy numismatic gold is when the gold price is low and the premium is low. 

It's not a perfect correlation, Al.....I've posted the charts (I can do it again) and it's not perfect.  If anything, I think the relationship is stronger NOW than it was in the 1970's and 1980's when we were just coming off the fixed price of gold, fixed currencies, inflation, etc.

If you get a bubble or additional price rise in the numismatic coins like Saints and gold is flat or retreats, then that premium will rise and the gain in the price of the Saint is even larger.  However, that was the exception more found in the 1970's and 1980's.  Since the TPGs came into existence, it is rare to find numimsatic (or semi-numismatic as the 1924 Saint MS-65 is considered) coins go UP while gold goes DOWN or is flat.

I do agree:  if you can buy numismatic when the gold price is low and the premium is low, you are getting the Best of Both Worlds.  Then the rise in gold and a rise in premium are a tailwind -- THAT is what buyers experienced a few times from 1973-1990.

RWB's PRICE GRIDS:  The price matrices at the end of every coin chapter in the book are an invaluable source of information (kudos to Roger and HA). 

For those of you who have an interest in Double Eagles (Saints or Liberty's) and are relatively new to the forums, just wanted to expound a bit more on stuff I have talked about with Eagle and others regarding what I consider the difference in a big price move vs. a bubble.  Eagle and DiamondSlayer may find this useful.

Now, it may be a matter of semantics but I'll use the 1924 Saint which is as common a gold coin as you can find.  This coin sold for the mid-$200's in MS-65 quality (which may have even been MS-66 or more today) in 1976 and 1977.  By 1980-81 the coin was selling for over $1,250 with the premium to gold even higher than it was before (gold peaked in early 1980).

By the mid-1980's (even though gold had backed off and was in the $300-$400 range), the MS-65 was up 10-fold from the price a decade earlier.  Now THAT is a bubble ! 

The price for a 1924 MS-65 Saint peaked at just over $4,000 in 1989....then fell to $1,500 by 1991.  Gold went down a bit but not by that much.

It's counterintuitive, but when the premium is HIGH and the gold price LOW...that tends to be when it is best to buy numismatic gold.  However, you still might make more money on a big sustained rise in gold by buying pure bullion coins.  You still make $$$ with the numimsatics, just not as much. 

On 8/14/2022 at 10:17 AM, DWLange said:

If it's any consolation I have to periodically log out and sign in again at the home page before I am recognized on the Chat Boards. This only happens to me with a mobile device. Using a desktop computer seems to maintain my identity.

Do you think maybe you can create a "sticky" for BOTH the Newcomer and U.S. Coins section where we can post the solutions to this glitch, Dave ? 

Or maybe post an email address that folks who can't login can contact someone at NGC -- or one of us -- for help ?

On 8/14/2022 at 5:47 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

One thing I was always aware of... Red Books have collector value. The first edition (1936?) rather expensive back when, is probably worth  a good piece of change. The last Red Book I bought after a prolonged interval skipping the 1970's and 1980's, was the one devoted to the recovery of gold coins and bars from the S.S. CENTRAL AMERICA in late 1980's  into the early 1990's, after everything was docimented.  They described coins and bars they never knew existed.

The price history from the past is tough to replicate on these books.  I have the 1970 Red Book because it pre-dates the rise in gold/silver of the 1970's.  Amazing to see the prices for the coins I have interest in like Saints. 

On 8/13/2022 at 9:26 AM, cladking said:

Yes.  I think that's exactly what happened. Logging out didn't help.  Mebbe the ranks haven't so much thinned as many are stuck in limbo. 

I wonder if maybe we should have the Mods post a sticky and/or email where they can find the work-around.

I still don't know why this glitch happens after a while....it's very tricky.  But the Incognito Window or Tab seems to work as long as I kill the existing window, open a new Incognito, and then login.  If I try  and login without killing the old tab, I get the registry page with a big picture of my avatar.  Gotta open a NEW tab and then the login comes in....hit the X to kill the popup and your login AND password should be filled-in automatically....hit the STAY LOGGED IN box and you should be set. 

On 8/13/2022 at 1:07 PM, Sandon said:

 A population of 1,500 (if it were that low) isn't particularly small for such a coin. For every collector who specifically wants and can afford an 1860-S, there are probably hundreds who want and can afford a 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cent, 1916-D "Mercury" dime, or 1893-S Morgan dollar, to name a few.  Tens of thousands of each of these coins exist, but they command high prices even in worn grades that increase over time. 

They do ?  In circulated condition ?  Must be lots of demand there from lots of collectors doing pennies and dimes right ?  I'm not familiar with those series at all but I know lots of beginners start out with them (I thought because they are easy to collect and affordable).  Because tens of thousands in circulated must mean lots more in the other grades, higher and lower.

As for Liberty DE collectors relative to 1,500 of the 1860-S's.....if we assume that there are no more and probablye FEWER Liberty DE collectors than Saint DE collectors, the numbers I've seen are 500-1,000 for serious registry collector types....and maybe 25,000 or so for type collectors.  But I would think anybody lookign for a type Liberty would look to a 1904 or 1907 Liberty where more quantity in higher grades exist.  But the 1860-S has a certain appeal, as our friend DS posted eaerlier.

On 8/13/2022 at 2:24 PM, VKurtB said:

In Depression Era Kansas? Surely you must be high. 

Woman was a teacher....nice pension...single....moonlighted as a witch part-time for another paycheck...pending lawsuit against Toto and Dorothy.

She was probably rolling in dough !! 

On 8/13/2022 at 1:11 PM, EagleRJO said:

I'm just waiting for the downside of that price spike.

Don't quote me on this.....and I'm not 100% sure....but my experience has told me that sellers are a wee bit faster to RAISE prices when costs go up than to CUT prices when costs go down. 

I'll research this and report back......

On 8/13/2022 at 1:49 PM, RWB said:

The OPs question is clear and direct. Responses might not be.

Well, if you want my best guess...assuming active coin collector....going back 3 years or so.....and either purchasing and reading a book OR re-reading and/or consulting select chapters in a book already read (like I do with your book or Bowers & Akers books)....I'm gonna say 25%.

Miss Gulch was a miser who probably had a nice stash of gold.

I'd wager she had some 1933 DE's, too !

RECENT SALES:  A 1927 MS-67 went for $20,000 with BP over at GC.....a 1925 MS-66 went for $4,000....a 1925 MS-66+ CAC went for $5,700....and in the bullion section, a pair of 1923 MS-61 NGC sold for about $2,050 - $2,100 which is about a 15% premium to the then-price of gold......a 1916-S MS-66+ NGC went for $12,500....a pair of 1914-S MS-65 NGC at just under $3,000 but another sold for just under $3,500 even though it looked about the same at 1st glance....some details coins like a 1911-S and 1908 NM could be had for a total cost just under $2,000. 

On 8/13/2022 at 9:05 AM, zadok said:

...and all of which supports an addendum or a small supplement to the original edition...its not so much as to the time consumption its more a question of "how many copies will sell"...im sure HA knows how many copies actually sold, they may have given away to their big spenders as many as they sold??...if, n a very big if, there are 25,000 "serious" n even non-serious collectors of saints out there one would have thought the book would have been sold out, i doubt this is the case...as i postulated before im estimating that only 1% of collectors even buy books related to their hobby, so 250 copies?...now QDB's book on same subject probably sold 20 times that number, maybe more n there r several reasons for that, not the time nor place to go into that...as for the '33 saint, it probably would be better served in a stand-alone "novella" publication n would outsell the original edition, maybe u could entice vkurt to accommodate ....

I know HA gave out copies of either Roger's book or the earlier Morse Saints book to certain buyers at past auctions.  They may have sent it to their Platinum client list but they didn't advertise that if they did.  The book retails for $100 so I am sure they don't want to mass-mail it to a good chunk of their mailing list and/or buyers.

God, I sure hope more than 250 were sold.  You sure have many more than that who have outbid me on coins over the years ! 

On 8/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, Diamondslayer said:

I pulled the trigger yesterday. I just wanted to know what y’all thought.

If YOU like the coin, and the price was reasonable (neither a great bargain nor a rip-off).....then you got a good deal.  Enjoy the coin and don't worry about what you paid or what it is worth.

Congratulations ! 

On 8/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, Diamondslayer said:

I have been keeping an eye on the futures too. Fundamental analysis says that we are on our way to a major recession. Technical analysis says that we have enough room to break out from here. That is my opinion. This is coming from my outlook on the five year weekly chart and the year daily chart. This is just my opinion and in no way should be taken as investment advice. I am usually wrong, but that is the reason I trade options. This gives me the ability to mitigate loss or turn them into winners with adjustments to my trade. Again, this is not investment advice. 

Are you talking about the price of gold ?  Fundamental analysis of gold can take YEARS to kick-in (supply and demand here take that long to kick-in).  Technical analysis can be right -- or it can be wrong.  Unless you see a big move in the gold price and you want to FADE it (go the other way) because you think it is overdone....or if you think it's the start of a CONTINUED move in that direction (i.e., 1976-80, 2000-08, 2009-11, etc.) best to not try and predict the price of gold and just buy what you like at reasonable prices.

If you are usually wrong, you shouldn't be speculating with options, IMO.

On 8/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, Diamondslayer said:

Have I done something wrong? I am not able to ask anymore questions in the newbie section. I have the best account. Please keep me posted!

I see nothing you did to warrant any time-out or suspension.  Not sure what you are talking about.  Did you edit the post above with that inquiry because you couldn't post again ?

Your questions and posts seem fine to me.  We need more newcomers like you and Eagle to jump-start this place. 

On 8/13/2022 at 7:13 AM, EagleRJO said:

Spot was about $1,800/oz to start out the year and went up to $2,050/oz in early March, which is a $350/oz or ~20% increase, before coming back down.

That's $250 or about 14%.  Throw out your calculator and get a new one.   

Also, that price was a spike up and it didn't last long.  Had we held $2,000-$2,050 for a few months lots of coins would have been marked up even more for a longer period of time.

On 8/13/2022 at 7:13 AM, EagleRJO said:

I saw about a 25% or so increase in the double eagles, maybe somewhat related to that,  and there was generally a 15% to 20% increase in other more expensive coins, even with one's not so much related to spot prices. Bubble, spike, etc. whatever you want to label it that is a rapid and unusual rise in the price of coins pretty much across the board for more expensive US coins. I''m seeing some signs of those prices coming back down to reality.

Whenever you get a rapid price rise you can see irrational pricing moves.  Some dealers are slow to raise prices, because they may have a relatively low cost-basis.  Others try and take advantage of the price rise and reap a windfall.  If a dealer needs to re-buy inventory at the new, higher price...that also impacts their sell prices.

I can assure you -- and some of our dealer friends can chime in with more specifics -- that had you seen that 1-month rise of $250 take place over MONTHS with a $30-$40 move per month, the price moves would have been LOWER and more gradual.  Some dealers and sellers who priced stuff when gold crossed $2,000 (the 2nd time in 2 years) may have thought we were definitely on our way to $2,200 or even $2,500 and priced accordingly.

Eagle, you and I are generally in agreement, just off a bit on timing and magnitude.  I agree with you on prices being more rationale of late.....if you check out my charts comparing Saint Double Eagles vs. Gold Bullion, the price of the coins always takes time to have the premium and/or price boost come out of the sellers/dealers asking price.

On 8/13/2022 at 6:43 AM, Diamondslayer said:

I know that there are numismatics that don’t believe in grading coins and that there are way more coins out in this world. But they are still pretty rare in my opinion. Especially a graded AU53. I like graded coins because it Is an opinion by a professional. 

You'll see many differences of opinion's on that -- by opinion's, I mean INFLAMMATORY back-and-forth  -- but I think most here would agree that unless you are an expert or have expertise in a particular coin, don't buy ungraded especially for Big Buck$$$.  So I applaud you. 

On 8/13/2022 at 6:43 AM, Diamondslayer said:

That is the reason I need y’all’s opinions too.  But don’t forget, I’m a newbie and I maybe wrong. That is why this post is in the newbie section.  

Hey, that's what we are here for....we ALL were where you are, learning and gathering information.

When I bought my original Saint Double Eagles, they were generic commons in MS-65 so the premium to gold was maybe 15-20% or so.  There wasn't much risk in the coin.  My most recent purchase was an MS-66 1923-D at FUN 2020 where the premium was much closer to 75%.  Other more scarce purchases I hope to make in coming years may see premiums to gold bullion of 100-500%. 

So I will spend lots of time doing DD before buying these coins, it is basic common sense.  If I overpay on a $200 commemorative or whatnot, no big deal. 

On 8/12/2022 at 11:49 PM, EagleRJO said:

There has been a very definitive price spike, in the order of 15% up to 25% for some,  starting around the end of 2021 to early 2022 which is just recently starting to come back to reality.

There was a very sharp 10% run-up in the price of gold in early-2022 in reaction to high-flying growth stocks getting slammed, interest rates rising, inflation jumping, and expectations of Chinese/Indian jewelry buying.

With prices having settled back down, sellers have moderated those price spikes of early-2022.

If anybody has Roger's SAINTS DOUBLE EAGLE book, check out the price matrices included for every coin going fro 1976 - 2015.   You can see how the coins moved up and down right at key inflection points like 1977, 1980, 1985, 1989-90, 1999-2000, 2008-09, and 2011.

On 8/12/2022 at 11:49 PM, EagleRJO said:

There has been a very definitive price spike, in the order of 15% up to 25% for some,  starting around the end of 2021 to early 2022 which is just recently starting to come back to reality.

Again, in 1980 prices had quadrupled in 18 months.  In 1990, they had doubled in a year or so. 

THAT'S a bubble. 

I see the 15-20% boost for prices you see, but I think it is a delayed reaction to the 2019-20 pandemic boost in interest in our hobby followed by the stimulus checks.  Originally, we saw all the cheap "junky" stuff that was lower-priced show the biggest increases.  Stuff like Big Denomination Bills in lower-to-mid grades, not the PMG-65 notes costing $3,500 or so.  Silver Morgans and commemoratives like the Saint-Gaudens National Park issues.

The NFT and digital crappola craze seems to have crested, I think maybe that money is going back to traditional stuff like art, antiques, coins, etc.