GoldFinger1969

On 7/26/2022 at 9:43 AM, EagleRJO said:

I have been looking for certain coins through online auctions with Great Collections (GC), Heritage Auctions (HA) and eBay but have not had much luck yet.  Particularly with raw coins, which I haven't even seen on GC and HA, and it's pretty much overpriced poor grade or cleaned garbage for raw coins on eBay. For slabbed coins eBay or GC (at a typ. 10% buyer premium) are an option.  But I just realized that HA charges a 20% buyer premium on most of the coins.  Thats adding $400 to a $2,000 coin for say some early year double eagles I am interested in buying.  So, HA is a no-go as overpriced imo.  Any other decent places to find coins to bid on or where you can make offers even if it's to be bid.  Particularly raw coins which I prefer, for other than really expensive coins which I do plan to get slabbed.  Like maybe iCollector.com, but it looks like they are at a 15% premium, and I haven't heard them mentioned on the forum.  Any recommendations or suggestions to check out, particularly for raw coins, would be appreciated.

Keep in mind that you pay up for the convenience of being able to buy with a few keystrokes, as opposed to driving around town or out of state or attending a far-away coin show.  You save expenses and time, which in some/many cases can be well worth it.

Now, a $400 premium on a $2,000 coin is a bit excessive....sounds like a generic common, which I agree the TOTAL cost should be just over $2,000....not $2,000 plus another $400.  Sometimes these auctions have the total price, including the bp (buyers premium), at or just above the common retail price.  Other times, it's way over.  Depends on the coin and availability and how many are interested in it.

I don't see too many low-MS graded Saints on GC or HA because sellers don't want to sell at a price that when you add in the BP the total cost to the buyer is about what coins like that should trade for....they might lose $$$ on it.....you see more Saints (and other coins) which are high-grades where the markup can be more easily digested for a hard-to-get coin or a really nice premiuum coin where the seller is more price-insensitive if he/she likes that particular coin.

On 7/26/2022 at 8:26 AM, EagleRJO said:

I usually don't like slab coffins, even though it's needed sometimes, but this one for a Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle seems cool.  Also, for earlier double eagles does it matter if it's with or without a moto?

Not bad, I still prefer the actual NGC or PCGS.

The 2009 UHR's graded by NGC had a nice bearded side portrait of ASG on the label.

On 7/25/2022 at 10:45 PM, EagleRJO said:

Still having trouble finding deals like that.  LCS are pricy here in NY due to COL, and no coin shows in sight.  If you guys see any of those Saints close to spot, a heads up would be much appreciated.

I think -- I have to check my records -- that when I say $30 over spot, Eagle, I mean actual cost and NOT adjusting for the 3% less gold.  So in theory that might add another 3% to the cost.  Again, from my perspective, since I value the (lower) grade and the holder, I'm OK with paying a total of $75 or so over spot.

If you look at the prices quoted in BARRON'S each week, some raw gold coins trade for a 5% premium to gold and others are flattish.  So IMO, a 5% premium isn't unreasonable especially if it's pre-1933 gold.....graded....and in a holder.

Anyway, that's me....everyone has their own likes and dislikes and buying limits. 

On 7/25/2022 at 10:40 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

That bad, huh? I deeply miss @MAULEMALL!

Borrowed from a classic line from "Get Smart" that I haven't seen in decades but never forgot ! 

On 5/27/2022 at 3:40 PM, Morpheus1967 said:

Ah, but it was Tommy DeVito (Joe Pesci) who shot Spider.  Both times.  

Hey...Hey.....don't give away the storyline.  Some of us haven't seen the movie....still. 

On 7/25/2022 at 7:46 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

@MarkFeld:

First and foremost, I appreciate the honor you've accorded me by acknowledging, i.e., honoring me with a reply. I had to consult a concordance to locate and provide an accurate transliteration of the "ancient landmark" quotation, but will clear my calendar of pressing matters to attend to your request. The pleasure is all mine.  🐓 

I got as far as "First and foremost...." 

QA's writing style and off-beat observations sometimes may confuse some as "trolling" but he contributes worthwhole information, informative posts, and good insight.  And then there's the Roosters......

That guy with the penny was just out of Bellevue......rude, nasty, couldn't even listen to reason.

On 7/25/2022 at 7:36 PM, EagleRJO said:

Where do I find these MS graded Saints for bullion price or close to it for some of the more common year/mints?  That would be around $1,670 to $1,700 [0.9675 oz x $1,725 current spot = $1,669], or only slightly above that as you noted.  The MS graded Saints I am seeing now are in the $2,100 to $2,200 range, or more, both thru dealers and auctions that I can see on GC.  Some help there would be much appreciated.

You may need to go to a LCS or coin show.  I bought an MS-63 1915-S which trades like buillion for maybe $30 over spot.

Remember, buying in a holder with a grade -- even a low one -- will add $20-$30 to the cost.  Worth it, IMO. 

On 7/25/2022 at 6:12 PM, World Colonial said:

I see your point when attempting to measure relative value for anything else, but no one would have bought gold back then at this theoretical price since it was much higher than the cost of buying Saints or $20 Liberty.

Buying gold was more expensive than buying gold coins ?

Newmont Mining getting blasted as the cost of gold mining continues to rise.  Cash and total costs are on the rise, and after a decade-plus of shareholder destruction on gold-plated (no pun intended) large CAPX projects that did nothing for their share prices, expect investors to balk and more going forward.

Bullish for gold and price support long-term.

https://news.yahoo.com/newmont-reports-earnings-miss-amid-134335505.html

When the crytpo bulls like Michael Saylor of MSTR need to base their support on Ugandan gold, that just makes me MORE bearish on crypto and BitCoin, regardless of what gold may or may not do:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/uganda-s-gold-discovery-what-it-could-mean-for-crypto

On 7/25/2022 at 3:04 PM, EagleRJO said:

Seems like to me the charts would be a better reference in general, even for current pricing, as they would even out bidding anomalies from say individual auctions where 2 people really want a coin, to the opposite end where maybe there is no reserve and less than anticipated interest.  So, the charts would smooth those out and also fill in the usual gaps for particular years/mints/grades as long as they are using reasonable valuation metrics.

No......you want to see ACTUAL SALES because it is unlikely to have outliers unless it is a very scarce or rare coin.  For instance, with 1924 Saints in MS-65 going for about $2,400.....you're not gonna see 1 auction only for $3,000 or even $2,800.

The chart will have an ending point or trend that reflects the most recent sales prices which MAY be multiple, liquid sales of the coin (good) or only 1 or 2 sales (bad).

"Parliament early this year enacted a new mining law that, once signed by the president, will pave way for the creation of a state mining company.   The company will compulsorily acquire a 15% stake in every mining operation and investors will be required to sign a production-sharing agreement with the government. Previously investors were given mining production licenses on a first-come, first-served basis."

So the government will get 15% for free PLUS the upside via the PSA.  The foreign investors get the downside, plus some photo-ops. 

One gold mining trade publication went so far as to suggest the Ugandan government may have been confusing metric tons with ounces in its projections: 

The World Gold Council was asked for comment about the Uganda discovery and the plausibility of its numbers. The Council doesn’t typically comment on media reports of gold discoveries, but added:  “In the absence of formal ore reserve/resource declarations, we would not expect these ‘discoveries’ to contribute materially to mine supply in the foreseeable future.”  

On 7/25/2022 at 12:41 PM, EagleRJO said:

IDK about it being 15 to 20 years, but it's not going to be any time soon.  They have to first investigate and map out potential deposits, perform and analyze drill testing, re-map potential deposits based on the drill testing, perform more drill testing, etc. and then build the infrastructure needed to process and refine the gold.  They just don't have the capability to do that on their own either, so they would have to get some of the big boys involved which is more time.  I just don't see it as being another episode of the Discovery channel's Gold Rush .

Uganda isn't the U.S. or even Argentina.  NOBODY has extensive business operations there. 

Do they even have ROADS leading to the area ?

Who's gonna drive the equipment to and from the pits ?

Do they need an environmental study ?

Will the World Bank or IMF be involved ?

Will private property rights be respected ?

Is this a Production Sharing Agreement or a straight royalty deal that work differently if gold trades for $1,200 an ounce vs. $2,400 an ounce?

What are the CAPX costs ?

What are the cash costs ?

It will be 15 years before any substantial gold comes out, I'd wager.  

On 7/25/2022 at 11:14 AM, VKurtB said:

Bre-X? That really didn’t involve a Head of State, but now that I think of it, I’m not sure if this is better or worse. 

Is Idi Amin in charge of this mine ? 

On 7/25/2022 at 8:50 AM, zadok said:

i have read hemingway havent read the other

Well, since you are on a thread created to discuss Saint Double Eagles, and since you do have some of the coins, might I suggest getting the magnus opus and reading it ?  

On 7/24/2022 at 2:09 PM, VKurtB said:

Let’s take a look at the word “fleece”. It can unfortunately be accurately applied to at least a sizable minority, if not the outright majority of all numismatic transactions that take place in this country, the world, and particularly, over the Internet. Does it apply here? I dunno. Does the fact that you’re getting coins from the last 100 of Column A or the first 100 of Column B matter to you? I know for sure it does NOT matter a whit to me, but I think maybe it might matter to our hosts, given their proclivity to create special designations. Now, the Mint. They can’t even fairly distribute coins available in the hundreds of thousands. What Chance do they have with 100? No, this is the proper bailiwick of professional auctioneers. The buyers will determine the market. I will be on the sidelines. 

Fleeced would apply to the thousands of dollars my father spent on tin-plated coins commemorating the president, WW II, Korea, etc.

Probably spent close to $3,000 buying coins which might have $100 worth of metal on them.  I'm letting the company sweat the money he/we owes them so they don't try any telemarketing again with my father or our family.

On 7/24/2022 at 10:34 PM, VKurtB said:

I suggest we lighten up until the supposed Ugandan deposits are proven or disproven. If there is ANY truth to it, gold right now carries a HUGE downside risk.

Sounds like Bre-X all over again.  

Even if the ore is legitimate, it'll be 15-20 years before an ounce ever comes out. 

On 7/24/2022 at 2:11 PM, World Colonial said:

It doesn't factor into hardly anyone's decision on how much to pay.  It can't because 99%+ have no clue how much the marginal cost is.  They have no reason to care either. 

Restrict supply, price eventually rises.  If you said no more gold would ever be mined after this month, the price would double in a week.

On 7/24/2022 at 12:19 PM, MarkFeld said:

As you said, it’s the moderator’s call, but I have no idea what part of a libel test you think hasn’t been met.

Libel and slander and defamation involve 3 tests:  1....the person must be a PRIVATE figure (otherwise a much higher standard ensues for a public individual, i.e., Donald Trump, Joe Biden, your local elected officials)......2.....the statement must be MATERIALLY FALSE and the individual saying it must know it was such........and 3.....the statement must cause lasting harm to the individual.

I don't know if any of those 3 are met, and we are NOT dealing with an individual, but an entity:  the U.S. Mint.

Can you defame or slander the Mint ?

Doesn't the Royal Mint themselves release photos of the place in their annual reports and other marketing materials ?

What are they afraid of with some non-closeup photos ?

On 7/24/2022 at 11:36 AM, World Colonial said:

Nope, don't agree with this either. This is also the same argument silver bulls have made, for years.  Someone also recently used this argument (on another website) for US housing. The cost to produce something doesn't determine the price, at least for anything that isn't an actual essential which gold isn't.  It may be true for food crops like wheat, corn, rice, etc. which are staples actually needed for survival but not for anything else.

Marginal cost of production CERTAINLY matters, as do lots of other variables:  state of other asset classes, inflation, economic turmoil, Central Bank sales, etc.  If the ESG folks get their way and the cost of production for gold rises to $2,500/oz., I can assure you that will impact the price of gold (over time).

Even oil, far more liquid and traded than gold, tends to approximate the marginal cost of production over time.  But it takes time to get there as we saw in 2014-15 and 2019-20.

And again today.

On 7/24/2022 at 11:36 AM, World Colonial said:

The price of gold is psychologically determined, like the monetary value any other (financial) asset.  All "reasons" are post-fact rationalizations. Inflation doesn't buy anything, people do, and they do it because they are bullish (on whatever it is) regardless of the supposed reason.  It's this kind of cause-effect reasoning that leads those who believe in manipulation to claim that gold (and silver) is manipulated lower.  Since inflation supposedly has to lead to (much) higher metal prices and we have the worst inflation since 1981, therefore prices are supposedly manipulated or else one or both would be much higher.  Wrong, people have agency (they aren't robots) and can act (and do) contrary to how any of us think they "should".

Most people believe inflation is coming down sharply -- the embedded expectations in instruments like TIPS shows that going out 5 years.  If inflation were persistent or about to accelerate, PMs would likely be much higher.

On 7/24/2022 at 11:29 AM, Coinbuf said:

If you did use a rolling avg then you would see that the price of gold is much higher, the problem is that you keep using the spikes (1980, 2011) as your basis for your conclusions, that is the wrong way to go about it.

Using moving averages eliminates price spikes, CB.  And I said use LOWER pre-spike prices for gold, I don't care.  The point is the recent price is not some blow-off measured from 2020 or 2012 or 1980.

On 7/24/2022 at 11:29 AM, Coinbuf said:

Lets try this, gas is roughly 2X what it was a year ago, is that expensive or cheap to you?   I think you would have a tough time selling your theory if you try and justify that gas is cheap because its only 2X higher to most people.   Yet you want to claim that gold is cheap because its only 4X as expensive. 

A doubling in price in a little over a year is far different than something being 4X as expensive over 40 years.  One represents 50-100% annual appreciation which is unsustainable, the other represents about 3.5% annual appreciation which is certainly not unreasonable.

The fundamentals for gasoline and oil clearly changed in the last year.  Not so for gold, so if the price had mysteriously doubled in the last year or two, I'd agree with you.

I hope EagleRJO is OK with the way this thread has moved.  Since we discussed pricing for some gold coins he was looking at, we sort of segued into the price and valuation of gold.  I hope that is OK with him and others...if not...we can continue the debate in the Gold Price Thread which is somewhere on these forums. 

While I am here.....

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GC*0/technical-analysis

https://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html

I'll try and find a site with long-term monthly moving averages.

On 7/24/2022 at 7:22 AM, MarkFeld said:

The thread title sounds libelous to me, so I will be reporting the post. 

It's harsh but I don't think libelous.  Doesn't meet the 3-pronged libel test.

Might be unfair or an exaggeration.  But definitely not libelous.

That said, it's the NGC Moderator's call.