GoldFinger1969

On 7/22/2022 at 2:16 PM, EagleRJO said:

I did lump them together in terms of what I find appealing, but my question for now is really specific to the early 1900's Indian Gold Half Eagle since that would be first on my add list.   I am getting the feeling that I should hold off on getting that coin for a while.

Don't rush in....read about the coins...study the population data vs. various grades.....check out some current auctions on HA and GC as well as past sales.

The coins are ALWAYS AVAILABLE so make an informed choice for a coin you won't regret weeks or years later. 

On 7/22/2022 at 1:27 PM, EagleRJO said:

That may be why I don't see lower grades on the larger dealers' sites.  But if I look at that 1911 half eagle in XF grade (and other ones that are early 1900's) dealers are asking for a little over $700 (more for a TPG slabbed one).  But spot value would be about $424 for that coin, with a weight of 0.242 troy oz and a current spot price at about $1,750 an oz.

So, does that mean prices for those coins I mentioned even in XF or AU grades will not really be affected by spot prices that much? 

They'll be affected, but it's not a 1-for-1 deal.

Remember, fractional gold is easier for more people to buy than 1 ounce coins.  This and the "volume discount" we see whenever you buy something in bulk means you'll pay MORE for the fractionals.  Whether you buy a $2.50 Indian Head or a 1/4 ounce American Gold Eagle you'll pay more than a larger coin in the series with more gold, assuming the grade is the same and the population doesn't change much resulting in condition rarity (which might be the case for the Indian Head).   I can't speak to the specific premiums on Indian Heads for various grades as I am not familiar with them that closely.

The more the numismatic premium, the less the gold price (unless it's a BIG MOVE) will impact it.  Check out the prices for the MCMVII High Relief Saints, which are over 6x the spot price of gold in AU-58 or higher condition.

Populations matter along with grades; when there are tens of thousands of mint state coins that supply dwarfs collector demand and it has to be bought by the gold investment crowd and they are looking to pay bullion prices or close to that.

Keep in mind that when you buy a Liberty or Saint you are buying 0.9675 ounces of gold, so the price should reflect that 3% discount in gold quantity.  A circulated common pre-1933 gold piece with no numismatic value should be a bit less than a common modern gold bullion piece.

On 7/22/2022 at 11:03 AM, EagleRJO said:

I don't collect sets of gold coins due to the cost, but I really like some of the ones produced over time, so I have a handful of them.  Some of the ones I really like are the gold half eagles and double eagles, and I think the early 1900's $5 Indian Gold Half Eagles (see pic) in particular look really nice with no edge and the sunken relief, as well as the early 1900's $20 Saint-Gaudens Gold Double Eagles.  So I am looking into adding one or both early 1900's XF/AU gold Half Eagles or Double Eagles when the price is right.  I am not sure if historically the price for these coins are significantly affected by the spot price of gold, which is pretty low now, or if the price is more affected by collector demand which seems to still be high now.  It seems like current prices are a little above RB/NGC book values, so waiting for a while may be better even though spot prices will likely go back up, but I'm not sure.  Any insight would be appreciated.

First, you've come to the right place, Eagle (great name, no wonder you want Eagles and Double Eagles !  ).

Second, you should read the "Roger Burdette Saints Book Thread" if not the book itself.  I would also recommend the books on Double Eagles by Bowers and the Gold Coins 1907-33 book by Akers (covers Indian Heads and Saints).

Third, I have posted charts for MS-65 and MS-63 Saints vs. Gold bullion prices (I'll try and track them down or repost them as I am travelling right now).  The current premium is not dirt-cheap but it's not at elevated levels, either.   Ironically, while not a perfect relationship, if you go back over decades the time to buy Saints and other gold coins -- if not bullion itself (the best play) -- has been when those premiums are HIGH.  Sort of like buying cyclical stocks when the P/E's are high (because of depressed earnings) and not when they are low (because the cyclically boomed earnings are about to get slammed by a recession).

On 7/22/2022 at 1:41 PM, RWB said:

The markup over spot might be similar, but the total cost is much greater at present due to the absurdly speculative price of gold.

For coins with numismatic value, right ?

I'm unaware of any excess premium for bullion-substitutes among Liberty's and Saints.

On 7/18/2022 at 5:43 PM, FlyingAl said:

I doubt he would remember it. Grading a coin is something simple, you just calculate all of the marks and how they detract from the perfect 70 grade, with a few added nuances like color or luster. You don't remember those marks, particularly after decades have passed. For example, I have seen a picture of multiple NGC slabbed 1933 double eagles. All I could tell you was that they all looked very similar. I would not remember a single one from another based on that few second glance. 

I get where you are coming from...but looking at an ACTUAL 1933 Double Eagle vs. pictures would definitely impress upon me all details and minutae.

I'd remember where it took place...who was there....what I was wearing...what I was doing right before and after....and then the coin itself.   But again, maybe that's just me.

The fact that a well-known "illegal" coin was shown...and then the Mint Director of Security talked to you....really stands out to me.  But then again, I'm just a regular guy and not a professional coin dealer/collector.

On 7/18/2022 at 3:42 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

There is evidently more to this than meets the eyes--and ears. Whatever the real reason may be, it should be fairly obvious the "gashed leg" example was not involved. I know nothing about the series beyond their exceptional beauty but the damage to the right leg would be my first and last point of departure. I don't know what was or was not of concern in 1977, but clearly it was on the mind of the Chief Mint Officer some 25 years later. Any gentleman involved in numismatics who is willing to disclose he has property which was apparently surreptitiously removed from a U.S. Mint facility knowing the risk of forfeiture is a consideration, only adds credibility to the observation he made with no axe to grind. A most satisfying answer which only encourages more questions.

But we don't know that.....I haven't seen anything that FW did not see the leg gash and/or looked closely at the obverse and saw nothing detracting there.

On 7/18/2022 at 1:31 PM, VKurtB said:

Asking Fred to recall enough details about the DE seen 25 years previously is asking A LOT. Keep in mind that ALL of them were illegal to have at that time, even the Fenton/Farouk specimen. That one had just been put into the special status by legal agreement. No one was even slightly concerned with “which one” in 1977. They were ALL contraband. 

If you had such a rare and "illegal" coin in front of you, and you were a coin collector, the thing I would do would be to look for distinguishing marks right away.  But maybe that's just me.

Barring that, Fred should have taken out his smartphone and taken some pics. 

On 7/21/2022 at 9:47 AM, RWB said:

Coin collecting retains the same pleasures of sharing information with others at club meetings, message boards, and through publications.

I wonder how active coin clubs are today compared to 25 and 50 years ago ?   I suspect activity is down alot...and I'll also bet that Zoom and other means of having meetings are on the rise.  My financial/investment group meets strictly by Zoom.

I've learned a ton from message forums, from the back-and-forth, even from what might appear to be petty disputes between stubborn individuals.  If you pay attention, there's usually some worth in any article, comment, or online post. 

Would be interested in polls of the various online forums as to how active the members are in the hobby and what coins they both collect and/or have interest in (you might have interest in a coin but not able to afford it).  I'm a bit surprised at the paucity of posts and threads (our group here excepted) on gold coins (Liberty's and Saints).  I think the SERIOUS collectors are simply not online and not posting (which makes our friend EC here a pleasant surprise).  Look at how few owners of MCMVII High Reliefs -- many of whom are NOT coin collectors -- post or talk about how they got their coins (many inherited, I suspect).

On 7/21/2022 at 9:47 AM, RWB said:

One of the pleasures of a hobby is sharing information with others. Each of us have differing levels and details of interest, and exchanging information is an excellent means of meeting others through those interests. Over time the emphasis of any hobby evolves as more knowledge is gained and technology advances enable different kinds of communication. Back in the 1920s, amateur astronomy was built around grinding your own telescope mirrors, flats, and building equatorial mounts. Today most telescopes are bought ready-built but hobbyists array them with cooled digital cameras, spectrographs and other devices that would have amazed professionals just a few decades ago. Yet under all the surface changes, the sharing of information and ideas remains central. Coin collecting retains the same pleasures of sharing information with others at club meetings, message boards, and through publications.  I hope we will all remember that.

As an astronomer, I heartily second your post !! 

On 7/18/2022 at 4:04 PM, Coinbuf said:

 I have never met Mr. Blay myself so I cannot say how old he is, but I'm very certain that he is not a kid.

What I meant was I think he was RELATIVELY young....in his 40's...and maybe started in his 20's or 30's.

I recall virtually all the coins were CAC.

On 7/18/2022 at 11:08 AM, World Colonial said:

No, long-time poster (off and on) on the PCGS forum.

I think going by all the CAC stickers that he was some guy in his 40's or younger which I remember since collecting pennies for a nice price stands out.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:22 PM, World Colonial said:

You mean like in Venezuela?  That's been a huge "success", crushing living standards or driving the population into poverty.

When I went to FUN 2020, all the Venezuelans I met blamed Hugo and Madero.  Venezuelans aren't stupid....they know they should be among the richest countries in the Western Hemisphere and they're at the bottom instead because of Chavez/Maduro, not U.S. sanctions.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:22 PM, World Colonial said:

I've also read reports the US is trying to get Venezuelan oil to market.  So apparently, supporting "democracy" was vital then but can be ditched now, as I haven't heard that Maduro is out.

Funds would be held in trust to buy Venezuelan people necessities, whereas Maduro wants to buy arms for Columbian and other South American leftists.  Only the U.S. can process the heavy sulfur crude that Venezuela produces.

Venezuela should be producing about 6 MM bbl./day....instead, they are are at best 1 MM/bbl.day.  The country has lost close to $1 trillion dollars in oil revenue thanks to those Socialist clowns.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:14 PM, World Colonial said:

That's my concern.  

Your concern should be authoratarian and dictatorial regimes.

Funny how the U.S. never has a terrorism or aggression or war problem with other democracies, right ? 

On 7/20/2022 at 2:26 PM, World Colonial said:

US has declared near total economic war on Russia and is directly involved in the conflict.  That's what the sanctions and arming one of the combatants represents.  It's not even a proxy war and it's an example of how US foreign policy has totally gone "off the rails" in the 21st century, risking direct war with the largest or second largest nuclear power.  As for "blinking", depends upon the timeframe.  I didn't anticipate this region as a "hotspot" (looking at the Middle East and Western Pacific for that) but now that it's started, longer term I expect it to turn into a wider conflict.

I see Russia and the Ukraine like Nazi Germany and Poland, 1939.  But unlike France and Great Britain, we're just sending arms and boycotts not mobilizing the reserves.

On 7/20/2022 at 2:26 PM, World Colonial said:

I've read that Ukraine has called for it, using Russia's FX reserves.  That's what I was referring to, not that I think they should pay it.  But I'll change my mind, as soon as the US pays reparations to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya, at minimum. 

I think there's a difference betwen naked aggression and a war of conquest vs. defensive wars aimed at elminating threats.  The U.S. was very clear for weeks or months or years before all of those situations and countries you referenced.  Putin (a dictator) lied about his intentions right up to the invasion.

I refuse to put a democracy in the same boat as a bloodthirsty kleptomaniac dictator who murders his own citizens.

That said....I think the U.S. will look to sanction Putin and his cronies rather than the Russian people, who are largely victims, too.

On 7/20/2022 at 9:39 AM, World Colonial said:

Every non-US entity cannot sell.  Due to US current account deficits, someone has to own these USD all the time, in the aggregate.  China can only "dump" it by either buying US based assets or goods/services or exchange it with another non-US entity who then has to hold it. Yes, exporters might not like it.  Many governments (not specifically just China) might decide to reduce their USD reserves (drastically) anyway.  It's better than having their FX reserves frozen or confiscated later effectively giving away their production for free.

(1)  Just as with the Gold Standared, the U.S. has to be the supplier of last resort.  This means running trade deficits to offset the capital account surplus.

(2)  There's a price for everything.  As my friend used to tell me...."there are no such thing as 'bad bonds' only bad prices." 

(3)  The dollar situation vis a vis Russia was about naked aggression, lies, and deceit.  The United States is light-years ahead of other countries in terms of rule of law, due process, and private property rights.  The U.S. hasn't confiscated Russian assets, merely frozen them.  Big difference.

I'd rather trust my assets with the Treasury's Office Of Foreign Asset Control than the Chinese Communist Party ! 

On 7/19/2022 at 9:49 PM, VKurtB said:

These sorts of unsure estimates tend to drive crazy newer people who dive in heavily all at once. “Investors” like certainty. They ain’t-a gonna get it in this field. If you can’t enjoy the journey more than the payoff, you’re not going to like coins. 

Look, the double-counting drives me nuts too.  You have to ask yourself what coins and in what grades are likely to be re-submitted and which are not.  The more of the latter, the more likely the total population is just PCGS + NGC totals.  The more of the former, the more you need to estimate the double-counts and subtract them.

That said....even having this information which could be cloudy or off is better than nothing, which is what we had prior to the TPGs.

On 7/19/2022 at 8:20 PM, World Colonial said:

Well, China has about $1T in UST.  Must be some way they can work something out with a third country to diversify their FX and sovereign wealth holdings.  They aren't the only ones either.  Problems is, everyone can't do it at once.

They've been selling for years.  And if everyone wants to sell dollars, I hope they like their currencies going up by 20-50%.

Their exporters also might have something to say. 

On 7/19/2022 at 7:37 PM, VKurtB said:

All I need is a stout pullback in Sterling and my next Europe trip will take shape. 

Pound down 15% in the last year.

On 7/19/2022 at 6:53 PM, VKurtB said:

I also don’t have any idea where PCGS Coin Facts pop estimates come from. It always seems so arbitrary and unreasonable. 

They probably use some kind of proprietary algorithim.  

On 7/19/2022 at 3:42 PM, VKurtB said:

With the euro similarly not participating in Russian gold transactions, things might be different. 

Euro has some major problems coming up, could impact gold like in 2011.

Stay tuned.........

On 7/19/2022 at 2:15 PM, World Colonial said:

As for gold, I'd be really surprised if the discount was more than minimal, assuming there is one at all.  Gold is a lot easier to sell than other commodities.

For us retail buyers, yes.  But if you want to sell TONS of gold, only a few buyers for that quantity are available.

On 7/19/2022 at 2:15 PM, World Colonial said:

You may know otherwise, but I read somewhere that Ural crude (the Russian one) normally sells at a "noticeable" discount to Brent.  No idea if this is true but if it is, might not be as much of much of a bargain as commonly believed.  Sure, Russia needs the cash, but their customers also need the oil at least as much.  So, it isn't like the buyers have all the leverage.

Urals normally sold at a $5 difference, give-or-take.  It's been over $30/bbl. since April.

On 7/19/2022 at 2:15 PM, World Colonial said:

There are many different grades of crude, but I don't know the number.  Presumably most who follow markets are aware of Brent and WTI but otherwise, suspect the public (and maybe the writers who report it) assume that all are the same when it isn't.

There are DOZENS of crude benchmarks, but only 2 key international ones:  Brent and WTI.  Most of the others are regional blends.  

Depending on the viscosity and sulfur content it sells at a premium or discount.

On 7/19/2022 at 4:37 PM, VKurtB said:

Roger seems to think the TPGS are some kind of locus of evil that needs to be atoned for according to his personal preferences. He is king and lord in his fiefdom. 

No, you and he just have a difference of opinion, as do many of us with one another.

We can respect our differences and still learn from one another.