GoldFinger1969

On 7/11/2022 at 4:41 PM, physics-fan3.14 said:

The color on that coin is absolutely magnificent, and I'll bet the luster will blow you away when you see it in hand. It is a *very* attractive coin, worth a premium. 

I didn't see it in the photos, but I'll take another look closer, PF. 

WC, great points. 

I don't collect recent or post-WW II U.S. coinage or pre-WW II small-coinage....but my understanding from reading ATS was that prices for stuff like Franklins, GW Quarters, etc.....got slammed after 2012.  Huge declines that you didn't see in the bullion or quasi-bullion pre-1933 gold or silver stuff.

On 7/11/2022 at 1:04 PM, FlyingAl said:

Plain and simple for this coin I think: The owner and buyer thought it was a 66+, for which the price would be in the ballpark.

Or never submitted for CAC and it would get a bean.

Of course....I always wonder with 1 bidder if it isn't a friend or dummy account who backs out.

On 7/11/2022 at 11:14 AM, World Colonial said:

Sometimes the term is used interchangeably but to use it accurately, it has to be based upon net worth.  I have also seen it used as total net worth including primary residence or liquid net worth, but the source often isn't clear which one is being used.  I don't recall the definition ever being easily liquidated.  

I would use total net worth -- excluding debt (a house worth $500,000 isn't worth that in the calculation if there's a $400,000 mortgage on it) -- including INCOME streams.

Also, to be fair, a house can NOT be monetized into an income stream because you are living there.  If you sold it tomorrow you'd need to buy a new one or pay rent.  Now, if you own a $1 MM home free-and-clear....and you are gonna downsize to a 1-BR condo that costs $400,000....then I would say that $600,000 could be added to your (liquid) net worth.

Pensions -- even Social Security -- could be added as I said before.

On 7/11/2022 at 11:14 AM, World Colonial said:

what really matters is whether the owner is a "strong hand" or a "weak hand" which I'd use in two contexts.  First, real collectors are a lot less motivated to dump their collections in (anticipation of) a falling market.  That's what happened starting in 2012 in South Africa causing the price crash, though that market is a tiny fraction of the US.  Same thing in 1990 during the TPG bubble.

Well said. 

On 7/11/2022 at 11:14 AM, World Colonial said:

The US price level in particular is at risk of both in an extended bad economy.  The only reason so many (US) coins sell for the current and prior price is due to the belief that the owner can get most of their money back at resale.  I state this obvious truism because the prices of the highest grades (and sometimes lower) are (totally) disproportionate to the merits as a collectible.  If it ever gets to the point where the public has to (or chooses to) conduct a "fire sale", the prices of a noticeable proportion of particularly US coins will completely collapse and never recover, adjusted for price changes.  An example is the 16-D Mercury in the lowest grades.

WC, I don't see a bubble in today's coin prices.  Maybe longer-term demographic headwinds impact the prices for those most inflated but even these came down sharply from 2012-20.  Remember the recent rise in the PCGS 3000 index is in the context of a huge drop from 1989.  Sort of like the Japanese stock market. 

On 7/11/2022 at 10:39 AM, RWB said:

The persistent "coin con" is to believe the holder label and not the coin.

Hopefully...and most of the time I think it is true....the holder label and the coin match up.

Not always.....but how often did the dealer scribbles in the white areas of the 2x2 match up with the coin pre-1986, right ?

On 7/11/2022 at 11:39 AM, Cat Bath said:

That's why I don't get the registry ATS The UHR is not listed as a pattern.

https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/20-gold-major-sets/20-gold-major-sets/st-gaudens-20-gold-major-varieties-1933-patterns-1907/composition/360

The 1907 UHR is considered a coin ?

On 7/11/2022 at 10:43 AM, RWB said:

Pattern pieces are not coins and never were.

Right, but the 1907 UHR is a pattern even though they made a small number which were distributed and it was pretty much the final version before becoming the MCMVII High Relief.  These are also patterns but usually only 1 copy and no distribution and they didn't become the model for an actual released coin like the MCMVII HR).

They're closer to experimental models or die experimentations in a way.

And of course, some lone bidder makes ME look moronic by bidding $6K and winning the coin for a total of $6,750. 

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1144362/1923-D-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-NGC-MS-66-OH

It's a NICE coin, I just think the price is too high.

On 7/10/2022 at 11:11 PM, Cat Bath said:

Simpson had the best overall set I've ever seen.

Do you mean online or in-person somewhere ?

On 7/4/2022 at 2:21 AM, Cat Bath said:

They are giving Eliasburg credit for the 33 & we know Elite has one. The only other coins are the patterns. (Elite still private for obvious reasons)  See my curiosity? Possible candidates??? Judd 1776 PR Judd 1778 PR  Judd 1778

Judd 1779 PR

I must have missed that:  so they gave Eliasburg credit for the 1933 Saint.  But how did they score it not knowing the grade ?  Maybe default to an MS-65 where most of the survivors tended to be ?

I have to look at those patterns, but the fact that no "coins" were distrubuted as with the 1907 Ultra High Relief makes these almost experimental patterns.  Do we even have the population numbers for these "patterns" ?  I'm sure it's in RWB's book but these patterns are so rare and since not widely struck/distributed you almost consider them like a 1st Draft or something on the way to the final Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle product.

On 7/11/2022 at 7:09 AM, JT2 said:

Whew so that was over now i come to this thing that i  hadnt been paying much attention too the big fat "+" sign.  When on gods green earth did we start with full on onslot of + signs.  Everytime i turned around well it is a  Plus ... heres your Plus sign...   When did this money grab hit us full on?  I mean when i firsts started we had  UNc, BU, Gem BU.. then we started with the 60, 63, 65.  nothing ever got past a 65 unless she was really special and i mean like wife special.  now we have 61, 62, 64, 66, 67......  if i keep taking about this they may star implemting half grades.. oh that is a 64 1/2 + * yadd yadda yadda............  

Nice review, hope you enjoyed the show, JT. 

But regardless of grading quirks today, I believe we are light-years better than the days of UNC, BU, Choice BU, Gem BU, etc.

On 7/10/2022 at 8:46 PM, MarkFeld said:

That occurs far from “Only on eBay usually”. Many sellers have coins listed at what appear to be (or are) very aggressive prices. Among other reasons, it can be due to greed, expectations that would-be buyers will counter-offer (regardless of what pice the item is listed at), a superior quality example, trying to break even, after having paid more than current market value or expectation of rising prices.

Good points, Mark.

I tried to negotiate with someone who had a nice 5 ounce silver commemorative that I wanted.  Prices were about $250-$350 going back over a year or so.  This guy wanted $600 for his coin.  I kept raising my offer close to $375 but he never countered.

Coin was still there months later.

On 7/10/2022 at 9:11 PM, Coinbuf said:

There are thousands and thousands of coins worth $50 (or less) in TPG slabs, value before and after slabbing is important but only one of the considerations.

I guess many of them -- if slabbed when prices were higher -- would have holders from 1989-1994, right ?

On 7/10/2022 at 7:32 PM, World Colonial said:

How many are there now?  10MM? $20MM?  The table below only goes to 1988.  Hard as it is to save $1MM, it isn't even close to rich.  Summary of millionaire materials (oregonstate.edu)

I have a link somewhere I'll look for, but if you go by total net worth (including primary residence equity) I'm going to say it's close to 20 MM households.  Liquid financial assets, probably 10 MM.

I could be off, I'll circle back......

On 7/10/2022 at 7:32 PM, World Colonial said:

That's what my mom told me, but she might be wrong.  I didn't confirm in the county records.  But keep in mind, it was a 4BR house which now has 4000+ SQFT of living space with a finished basement and then maybe close to 3000.  It was large for its day. 

Yeah, the houses on Long Island and the NY/NJ suburbs were closer to 1,200 - 2,000 square feet.  I think the house I grew up in was 1,800 (49' High Ranch).

On 7/10/2022 at 7:32 PM, World Colonial said:

My grandfather wasn't rich but one of the "working rich" per your definition at the time.  Nothing left of the family money on our side though.  On another note, when Ferdinand Lundberg published "The Rich and the Superrich" in 1964, there were about 60,000 millionaires which was rich at the time.

How many are there now?  10MM? $20MM?  The table below only goes to 1988.  Hard as it is to save $1MM, it isn't even close to rich. Summary of millionaire materials (oregonstate.edu)

Yeah, I don't know if millionaire would mean EARNS $1 MM...or has a net worth of $1 MM (including homes)...or a liquid financial net worth or easily-liquidated assets that comfortably exceeds $1 MM even if given a haircut.

You could also include PENSIONS which are worth millions for many public sector employees (and some private sector) if they are young enough and get a certain annuity for life.

I estimate the value of many teacher, firemen, and police pensions in New York State as worth about $1.5 MM - $2.5 MM.  Some as high as $5 MM !!

On 7/10/2022 at 6:44 PM, Nutmeg Coin said:

Only on ebay usually.  At those prices you may have what is called a "spam" listing.

Yup....I get asking a high percentage over market for a low-priced item.  I see silver commemoratives that should be $200 and someone asks for $350 and hopes someone needs it right now for a birthday, Christmas, etc.

But there's a huge difference in paying a few hundred bucks (or less) over market and paying THOUSANDS over market....for an item that is plentiful and always available.

On 7/10/2022 at 6:44 PM, Nutmeg Coin said:

I looked at it and the seller must have insisted on it since GC encourages much lower starting bids to have the market bring it up.

That also makes sense.

Look at this 1923-D Saint-Gaudens in what looks like an early or mid-1990's holder.

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1144362/1923-D-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-NGC-MS-66-OH

1923-D's in MS-66 sell for about $4,500 to $5,000 depending on the quality (assuming no CAC).  Why would someone ask for $1,000 - $1,500 over market (esp. a starting bid) ?  I mean, I know you can always get lucky but anybody buying a Saint-Gaudens coin generally and for this much money specifically is not likely to be uninformed.

This coin has been out there a few weeks at least, maybe months.  I've seen others getting no bids that were listed for OVER a year.

Why do it ?

On 7/6/2022 at 2:33 PM, World Colonial said:

As usual, I was the only "naysayer", even though this includes everything I collect.  Another example of me providing specific arguments and evidence contradicting (implied) financial hyperbole while everyone else writes in the abstract to disagree with me.

I don't recall seeing that thread but I would have been alongside you.  Also, others who agreed with you might have thought that you said it better than they could and thus didn't post.

If a thread disappears due to inactivity, I wouldn't assume others agreed or disagreed with the posts or others.  They may have missed it like I did or they may have thought they couldn't improve on anything you said/typed. 

On 7/10/2022 at 1:58 PM, zadok said:

...ive been heavily invested in oil/gas for decades actually still am, ditto tobacco n mining, but never bought any enron but one my 401k's did n doubled down n lost their butts, i just never liked their business style much preferred royal dutch...did exceptionally well in the fracking part still reaping residuals...did well on those storage tankers during the storage sparcity but u had to get in n get out at the right time for those, fortunately i gauged it correctly....

I owned RDS before....the European/British oils are too henpecked by the Greens overseas.  Both RDS and BP cut their dividends in 2020....Exxon and Chevron did not.

Royal Dutch had last cut the divvy almost 80 years ago during WW II during The Blitz.  They threw that all away.

On 7/10/2022 at 11:34 AM, World Colonial said:

I gave you the example of commercial real estate but let me draw an analogy with my grandparent's prior house, located on one of the best streets in Buckhead in ATL.  Built in 1940, they sold it in 1962 for $60K or so I was told.  It sold this year for about $1.1MM with 1.2 acres instead of the original six, long ago subdivided. 

Wow....$60,000 for any home in 1962 -- let alone Atlanta area or Georgia -- was damn pricey.  Homes in the NY area when my parents and relatives bought in the LATE 1960's were only $30,000 or so.

On 7/10/2022 at 11:53 AM, EagleRJO said:

I'm in NY, just outside NY City

Do you attend any of the surburban NYC-area shows:  Westchester.....Mt. Kisco....Parsippany ?  There's also some on Long Island but I've never gone.

On 7/10/2022 at 11:45 AM, EagleRJO said:

Thanks for the suggestions.  How about places/events where I can find raw coins that have not been graded/slabbed yet?  And what about rolls of older coins I sometimes see for sale on eBay, although I find it hard to believe someone hasn't already searched through the rolls to look for very valuable ones and then re-rolled the remaining common ones.  

Local, regional, and the national coin shows.  Where do you live ?

On 7/9/2022 at 1:46 PM, zadok said:

...does that mean i should sell or hold my enron?....

Never forget that Enron was a legit company...had real assets....the fraud hit years later once they spun off the tangible, real assets into what is today EOG Resources, a leading E&P fracker/oil/gas company.

EOG stands for Enron Oil & Gas (or at least used to). 

On 7/9/2022 at 9:29 PM, World Colonial said:

First, gold had a big run up to August 7, 2020 ($2072).  Someone might claim it was in anticipation of something but whatever.  The point is, it already rose a lot (from March) and it was (and is) very expensive historically (and has been for a long time) versus the things that people need and want to buy, especially other commodities.  While I think (and attribute) this consistently high price to a higher risk premium, in no way is it remotely "cheap".  So, given this historical relative valuation and run-up, why would anyone think it unusual?

No disagreement.....I would call gold "fairly valued" myself and certainly LESS OVERVALUED than cryptos, certain stock market sectors, and other non-liquid assets (art, high-end real estate).  But all assets, including those that are the playthings of the super-rich, tend to have some price inelasticity to them.

Let's see how they all handle quantitative tightenting and a Fed Fund rate closer to 4% from the conditions of the last 14 years. 

On 7/9/2022 at 9:29 PM, World Colonial said:

Second, gold isn't an inflation hedge like "metal bugs" claim.  It's entirely dependent upon when you bought it.  If you bought it in 1980, you're both underwater and had a huge opportunity cost.  Same story for 2011 but just less.  OTOH, if you bought in 1999/2001 or October 2008, you're up big.  My explanation for it?  Simple, people aren't robots but human beings, they have agency, and can act contrary to the expectations of "metal bugs". Nothing hard to understand about it.

Gold was the ONLY way to hedge or diversify in the 1970's as inflation soared.  That's why gold did well and new-trading in currencies (and falling Treasury bond prices) made the trading volumes more or less the same.  Today, currencies (and Treasury bond trading) dwarf gold.

On 7/9/2022 at 9:03 PM, World Colonial said:

So, what I am telling you is that there aren't (or weren't) 735 billionaires in 2021 versus 13 in 1982 because the country is that much richer.  It isn't primarily because of inflation either.  It's substantially or primarily because assets that used to be worth relatively nominal amounts in the past now sell for ridiculously inflated prices, like professional sports teams or commercial real estate.

No doubt general and asset price inflation impacts billionaire totals and other income/wealth levels.

But there is also REAL income/wealth growth, particularly from U.S. dominance of certain key export sectors where we can not only sell to Americans but service the global community.

The net worths of folks around in both 1982 and today certainly outstrips inflation and even stock market returns for many.