GoldFinger1969

On 4/13/2022 at 9:28 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

The solution to this problem is for our government regulators of the airline industry to fine the airlines.  Not small fines… large fines.  Solved.

Cancelled flights ?  If the airlines can't do that, or overbook, then the price will go up across the board.

Airlines are a very unique industry, not affected by the normal supply/demand problems.

On 6/29/2022 at 9:05 AM, World Colonial said:

When did you buy most of your coins? I think the conclusion is somewhat or noticeably different if mostly after 2009 versus mostly before due to the (much) higher spot price.  For the CAC, I presume the populations were noticeably lower, but the spot price is a bigger factor.  The premiums aren't that large for higher grades proportionately but the much higher spot prices since around 2010 make it far less competitive as a collectible.  As an "investment", it's got the potential to appreciate due to both rising spot and expanding premiums.  That's what makes it appealing for predominantly financially motivated buyers along with its much better relative liquidity.  What I described also usually applies for other large size gold, US or world.

Aren't U.S. Small Coins post-1933 (maybe even a bit earlier) also very low in the high-end populations ?  I guess most circulated even though mintages were sometimes billions ?

On 6/29/2022 at 2:20 AM, Cat Bath said:

I've thought about that number a lot & think it is smaller. Maybe 250  (this includes "poverty sets" & higher) My saints average out around Pop 100 higher. Meaning there are about 100 "better" than the one I have.

This for a person on a blue collar salary. I'm guessing 500+ serious, wealthy collectors would all but prevent me from owning the coins I do.  Purely a guess from looking at populations & public registry sets.

Based on the number of Saints at LCS, Coin Shows, and online auction, I think it's 500 - 1,000. 

Now...I do NOT think they are all chasing the high-end...many might even be AU-58 or MS-63 buyers for coins that look nice.  A guy making $500,000 a year with a net worth of $5 MM can probably afford a $50,000 MCMVII High Relief MS-65.....but he also may be happy with an AU-58 or MS-63 and save 30-70%.  The guy making a few million with a net worth of $30 MM is probably more price-insensitive.

Keep in mind that many coin collectors skew OLDER and they are at peak earning and net worth numbers relative to younger collectors -- or the same collector 20 or 30 or 40 years earlier.  Family obligations, mortage -- they all disappear once you are past 60 more or less.  More $$$ to spend on your hobby.

Most people, unless really dedicated to coin collecting, have enough trouble just saving for retirement.  

And today's MIRROR PROOFS which have been around for decades....which of the 3 methods are they closest to ?

On 6/28/2022 at 2:09 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, I assume so.  To my knowledge, NGC has consistently assigned higher proportion of 70's which accounts for the price difference.  Regardless, it's marketing and paying for the label.  There is a more noticeable difference in the label than in the coin with these assigned grades, much bigger.

I like NGC's modern labels.  They're colorful and sometimes relevant to the coin in the holder.

On 6/28/2022 at 11:56 AM, World Colonial said:

Not really, as it has nothing to do with collecting.  It's marketing.

Is he saying PCGS = California and NGC = Florida ?  I'm confused.

If it is the same TPG in both states and he's saying there's that discrepancy, that's unreal.  Still hard to believe even 2 separate TPGs could have that dichotomy.

On 6/27/2022 at 4:31 PM, VKurtB said:

I mean Saints. The MCMVII. Stunning. 

What about your hatred for gold ?  

On 6/27/2022 at 6:34 PM, World Colonial said:

My understanding is that CAC ignores "+".  Might be wrong about that but didn't see it in their pop report.  Under this assumption, I wouldn't assume that any "+" coin with a CAC sticker is a candidate for a 67.  It's presumably already "nice" for the grade.

I think you are correct....CAC ignores the "+" designation.  But wouldn't a 66+CAC be at least as good as a 66 CAC for a (lucky) upgrade to MS-67 ?  Happens alot for non-plus coins so I would think the "+" couldn't hurt.

On 6/27/2022 at 6:34 PM, World Colonial said:

That's not even close to rare for any coin in this grade, even ignoring other grades.  Look at the TPG data and you'll see that other than Morgan and Peace dollars, it's only common Saints and Liberty Head double eagles that virtually ever have this many among pre-1933 US.

True, but the high bullion content and the large number of fans of the Double Eagle series imply much higher demand for the coin at all grades especially top-condition coins, right ?

And the % jump from lower grades might be LOWER for Saints/Liberty DEs than what you see for U.S. Small Coin series (I'm not familiar with their price gradient so I'm speculating).

On 6/27/2022 at 6:34 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, I get that.  I also assume that there are many more not sent in still eligible. There might be 25,000 upscale type collectors of common US gold coinage (12 coin set), maybe.  I don't believe there are this many for US coinage as type collectors generically.

Agreed. 

On 6/27/2022 at 6:16 PM, World Colonial said:

Just looked up the pops for these dates. Even with a CAC sticker, none of the counts are low in those grades: 286, 725, 605, and 358.  Maybe some duplicates if someone cracked it out of the holder for regrading and sent it back to CAC.

What about the counts for the 66-plusses ?

Those aren't HUGE pops....in other words, they are somewhat rare in top condition.  Keep in mind that you have about 500 serious collectors (maybe more) who want top or near-top condition coins where they can afford it (and these people generally have the $$$).....throw in a minority of the 25,000 Type Collectors who buy upscale and that explains the prices for what might appear to be a "plentiful" coin in the condition.

The Total Populations for these coins are of course much larger.  Hence why even in top condition these coins are less than an MCMVII which has a total production of just over 12,000 and 8,000 survivors today (estimated).

On 6/27/2022 at 4:31 PM, VKurtB said:

I mean Saints. The MCMVII. Stunning. 

Outside of recent specially produced UHR and HR coins, I don't recall any other U.S. or foreign coins in the last 100 years that are HR with that special design to the rim.

Maybe some foreign coin I am not familiar with.

On 6/27/2022 at 3:33 PM, VKurtB said:

To me, the most compelling are those with the very sharpest knife-like rims. 

You mean Saints or coins in general ?  What exactly do you mean by "sharpest knife-like rims"....you mean no dings or dents on the rim ?  

Or are you talking the MCMVII where the fields rise up sharply to the rim ?

On 6/27/2022 at 2:31 PM, VKurtB said:

High grade seems to be the key. Mundane hole filling is the path to losing money. 

But even then, even the highest-graded coins can't esacape the mid-single digits returns over most time periods.  Look at the 1933 Double Eagle and the 1908-S Norweb Saint (which David Akers said might be the most attractive of any Saint).

Sunday GC Saint-Gaudens Results (final bids rounded; all TPGs PCGS unless listed NGC):

• 1928 MS-66 OGH CAC.....$5,700
• 1928 MS-66.......................$4,000
• 1928 MS-66+ CAC............$8,600
• 1927 MS-66.......................$3,400
• 1927 MS-66+ CAC............$7,300
• 1924 MS-66.......................$3,500 (3 sold basically identically)
• 1924 MS-66+ CAC NGC did not get any bids at the asking price of $7,000 w/bp.
• 1924 MS-66+ CAC PCGS also got no bids at about $6,800
• 1924 MS-66 CAC...............$5,200
• 1924 MS-66 CAC...............$5,900 HALF DOME COLLECT
• 1923-D MS-66 NGC ..........NO BIDS @ $6,800
• 1908 NM MS-66 NGC........$3,400

On 6/26/2022 at 10:41 PM, zadok said:

..."total return starts to decline over time"...true but not as drastic as a recessive stock market crash...somehow a 5% dividend on a stock that has dropped 50% isnt very sweet....

Yes, but as you know, the coin market has had some doozies in the last 42 years.  

Nobody on these Forums should be relying on YouTube when you have this place for information and advice.

And if we don't have an answer -- unlikely -- we can at least direct you somewhere that does. 

Keep in mind....even though a long holding period can help you make $$$ especially if the purchase period was in a low-price time....as you extend the time period without any dividends/income coming from the coins...the Total Return starts to decline over time.

That is why those ridiculously cheap Saint-Gaudens DE prices didn't generate such spectacular returns to the present.  After a great run caused by scarcity value (small coins) or removal of artificial price controls (gold)....many coins went up-and-down for decades after 1980.  That was the case with the Saints after a 50-year run of rising prices up to 1980.

If you purchased some of those coins in the 1930's or 1940s (or even later !) but cashed out around 1980 (admittedly a peak after a golden decade)....your return was closer to 18% a year on some of those ultra-rare Saints.

Great post, CB !!    

Lots of MS-66 Saints up for auction tonight with active bidding over at GC.........

On 6/26/2022 at 10:01 AM, zadok said:

...p.s....u mention silver/gold commemoratives...i own no commemoratives....

I own them as gold/silver bullion substitutes.  Modest premiums paid, but sometimes I paid up for a PF70 and paid well over the bullion content.  The Saint-Gaudens silver commemoratives, for instance.

On 6/25/2022 at 4:55 PM, silvergold1700 said:

It’s a beauty.  Definitely can see the quality difference from MS-65.

Thanks.....excellent luster on the coin, showed it to some vets at FUN 2020 and they liked it, too.

Looked at some 66+ and CAC coins but the price jump was $1,000 or more. 

On 6/25/2022 at 4:57 PM, RWB said:

Think of them as a long-term investment in personal enjoyment, history, finance and numismatics. If you'd spent them money on a snow blower, it's be useless most of the time.

Unless you live in Alaska....

On 6/25/2022 at 4:54 PM, silvergold1700 said:

No budget, but I see coins as an investment, so I don’t want to buy anything that has a high premium which might drop.  

Do NOT look at them as an investment.  This is a hobby.

You should look at the premiums to underlying metal content in historical context.  They are in fair value right now I would say -- not cheap, not expensive.

On 6/25/2022 at 11:49 PM, zadok said:

...and yet the increase in value of my coins over the past 4 decades has surpassed the value of all the dividends in my portfolio by more than 200%...investments do not have to produce dividends or realize income to be highly successful....

I think you're an outlier.  Actually, I KNOW it. 

Given when you bought and your excellent knowledge, if anybody could generate those returns, it would be you.  Congrats ! 

On 6/25/2022 at 11:44 PM, zadok said:

...understand the logic of ur thoughts on returns on coins but just doesnt mesh with my experiences...if i were to sell my collections today there is only one coin in the entire collection that i believe i would lose money on, its a coin that i knowingly paid multiples of its realistic value for but i simply wanted the coin n bought it regardless of price...i do not understand where u arrive at the 50% expected return on most collectors coins?...r u saying that most coin purchases r made at or near twice their real resale value or that u believe that coin values have decreased by 50% in the past few decades?...the auction results dont support that premise...most of my close collecting friends certainly believe that if they sold their collections they would realize gains n not loses n the couple that have sold their collections in recent years have realized substantial gains, one of over 200% that i am personally aware of....

I disagree that losing 50% of one's purchase price is expected.  Maybe CB meant after inflation, opportunity cost vs. owning other assets, etc.  He'll have to clarify for us.

But most collectors are not as savvy or as smart as you, Zad....nor did they start in the time period that you did.  So the returns you have are definitely an outlier.

I think I am ahead on my 50% of my collection....down on the other half.  I have lots of commemorates for gold/silver so those are very volatile in price.

The one thing that helps is if you are smart or lucky you can make 200% or 500% or 1,000% or even more on your winners.  But you can only lose 100% (and probably less) on your losers. 

There is so much money in private equity firms, I would not be SHOCKED if a firm decided to spend a few hundred million on numismatics, art, NFTs, baseball cards, etc.

Surprised, but not shocked.