gmarguli

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

I don't see how the Mint would be in a position to know the "correct" number.  A few but only a few of the coins had limits too low, such as the 2019-S ERP ASE but it's an outlier.

It's hard to know the "correct" number when so much current demand (maybe most of it much of the time) is from speculators and flippers.

I think we could come up with pretty good estimates of demand for a lot of the coins. This is especially true if they were honest with themselves. Commemoratives that appeal to white men (50K), to all Americans (100K), to the woke (10K), or that feature women/women's subjects (12.5K). 

Or perhaps the mintage could be set at 2X or 3X the amount sold to dealers through their bulk program? 

Or perhaps the Mint set a number and after a month the remaining mintage gets sold to the bulk dealers. Require these dealers to buy the remaining coins or get kicked out of the program? 

1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

All US Mint products take "share of wallet" from previously existing coinage.  If the supply collectively is "limited" and the collector base or financial inflow is increasing, it isn't noticed.

But in a stagnant market which is the reality I read for US coinage collectively until the last year, not only are buyers mostly losing money on their Mint purchases, the flood of US and world NCLT elsewhere is also depressing the value of their existing collections.  Many of the buyers are buying one or the other (NCLT or everything else) but many buy both.

I question how much of a relationship there is between NCLT and "classic" coin collectors. I don't know too many collectors that collect new stuff from the Mint that also spend significant money on classic coins. Usually they stick to cheaper classic coins. 

20 hours ago, Hinkle said:

Who's out there doing these.

Regretful Biden supporters who finally realized what they have done?

Seriously, since using US coins for advertising purposes is against the law, probably no one officially related to the Trump campaign. 

2 hours ago, RWB said:

As noted elsewhere and now corrected by the US Mint:

"In a message released Friday, May 28, we made reference to a global shortage of silver. In more precise terms, the silver shortage being experienced by the United States Mint pertains only to the supply of silver blanks among suppliers to the U.S. Mint."

Gee, I wonder what would have happened if the US Mint had offered $1 more per blank? Think that they would have been able to buy hundreds of thousands more as they outbid the other buyers? And then they could have easily passed that extra $1 in cost off to the customer?

Come on, we all know that they intentionally under-produced these to create demand. 

14 minutes ago, Just Bob said:

Good point. In your opinion, is the OP's coins market acceptable?

No. 

14 minutes ago, Just Bob said:

 

Interesting. Most people seem to lean toward "intent" as their determination of AT/NT. Just so I am clear, do you judge between AT & NT based on whether or not the coin was in mint packaging or not? And, by "mint packaging," I mean burlap bags, paper envelopes, cardboard and paper mint sets, etc. Does this mean that you consider Wayte Raymond album toned coins to be AT? What about coins toned in paper rolls? 

I understand that intent can be difficult, if not impossible, to prove, or even determine - except in the case of certain Ebay doctors - but, most people that I have talked to are forgiving when it comes to what they perceive as "accidental" toning. And, sometimes, TPGs seem to be, as well.

I agree with your assessment of the likely cause of the toning on this coin, but I am more in the "intent" camp. A week of sitting in sulfur is definitely artificial. Decades of resting against a paper or cardboard surface seems more like the natural toning process to me.

If you can't tell the difference based on the coin, intent is meaningless.

It's either market acceptable or it's not. 

This is a wonderful fix. Before people would spend 30 minutes trying to get an item that was going to sell out and leave frustrated that they didn't get it. Now people will only need to spend 3 minutes trying to get a item that will sell out before they can leave frustrated that they didn't get it. 

5 hours ago, Jason Abshier said:

Most average joes don’t have money to buy 100 coins to send in bulk like that ... if I were to buy 1 alone raw myself and buy few more raw coins and send them in at same time big dealers are sending in bulk submissions chances of me get 70 on my one little measly coin is a long shot ...

 

if 40 of them do come back with 70 grade , why such high prices for something so common ? The average Joe now has to pay 3x-4x for a common coin with a 70 grade seems like a it becoming more common to get that grade only in big bulk submissions 

Have you submitted any modern coins to the TPG? I get 70s all the time when submitting a single example.

Given the loosened grading standards for a 70 and the near perfect quality coming from the Mints, a significant portion of coins will grade 70, regardless of whether you submit 1 or 1,000. 

2 hours ago, Jason Abshier said:

That’s what drives the prices up on modern market it is what it is . There are dealers even with “pre sale” MS70 and PF70 guarantee! Prices for some issues are already sky high it cuts out the average Joe never even had a chance to buy the coin raw and send it in himself for grading (of course the average Joe would get a MS69 or PF69) VS a big time dealer that’s keeping the grading companies busy slabbing coins . Someone always bites the bullets on 70 grades building registries each time a hot coin set coming out of the mint with a low mintage you’re always gonna be up to challenge against the big shot dealers  

1) The "average joe" had every chance to buy this coin. Do you think the dealers had some special way to grab all the coins? 

2) Pre-sale of MS70 is not unusual. Look at the grade distribution of recent issues. Somewhere between 40%-60% will grade 70. Anyone with a small quantity of them could safely pre-sell 70s.

3) If you think that dealers get the 70s when others get 69s, I suspect you haven't submitted many moderns. Order 100 Christa McAuliffe or Law Enforcement commems and submit them bulk to either NGC or PCGS and I bet at least 40 of them come back 70. 

Counterfeit.

5 hours ago, Morpheus1967 said:

Then why aren't they posting the mintage on their website?  It only says product limit.  

No idea, but here is a Coin World article where it is discussed. 

18 minutes ago, Alex in PA. said:

Okay g, if you say so I believe it.  I guess, on second thought, we should not expect too much from the Mint.  What puzzles me is some of the EBay 'Flippers' aren't listing an amount on hand.  You know, where it says 2 sold 8 left.  

It's on the Mint's website: In addition, the Morgan and Peace Dollars will be included in the Mint’s recently launched Authorized Bulk Purchase Program. This new program is structured to better meet marketplace product availability on the initial on sale date by expanding the distribution of Mint products. No more than 10% of products with limited quantities will be distributed under this program.

And that's a setting on eBay. As a seller you can set it to list the actual quantity (12 of 50 left) or no mention of how many left (12 sold). However, you can easily find out how many they have. in the order box, just type in a number. Put 50 and if they have 50, it's OK. If they have less, it should say enter a smaller quantity. 

10 minutes ago, MarkFeld said:

You CAN report an item you haven't bought - you just can't leave feedback about the seller. I frequently report counterfeits and scams.

And how many actually get removed? 

I reported numerous counterfeits in the Medieval coin section and not a single one was removed. Sad thing is that some sellers have a bunch of feedback saying the coins were counterfeit, but eBay does nothing.  

5 hours ago, Conder101 said:

Eventually, in fact eventually I would expect it to drop below issue price.  But for at least awhile it's going to bring a premium in the aftermarket.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the premium start to drop in about 6 days when the next two go on sale and start drawing all the attention.  many collectors loose interest when the "next hot coin" comes along.

Fall below the issue price? Now that is crazy talk. Other than practically every product it sells, when was the last time a US Mint product fell below its issue price? 

I expect these will hold up a little better than average. Look at the Buffalo dollar. It still sells for a premium and there are a lot more Morgan collectors than Buffalo collectors. 

1884-Zs-Js Mexico 8 Reales. Minted in Zacatecas. Looks ~AU condition, but possibly cleaned. Common coin worth maybe $50 retail. 

1 minute ago, Alex in PA. said:

hey g, what happens if something goes wrong and the US Mint can't meet it's sales.  Will EBay get you a refund in October if you buy today?  Just asking.

If you pay with PayPal, you have 180 days to open a dispute. Some credit cards will let you open a dispute within one year of purchase. 

11 hours ago, Coinbuf said:

I had no interest in either and am very happy and stress free today.

90% of the people who bought them yesterday had no interest, but they are very happy and have more money today as the coins are currently selling for $200+.

I was able to add the "CC" to my cart on the first try just as they went on sale. Got one error message when trying to check out. However, the next refresh showed my order had gone through! 

I then tried for the "O" mint and spent about 20 minutes trying to add it to my cart before I saw the message that they were sold out. 

On 5/21/2021 at 3:27 PM, MarkFeld said:

In the large majority of cases, I don’t think it’s necessarily about wanting the best coin or about ego. But rather, it’s a desire for confirmation of a coin’s quality (and thus, value) from a very highly regarded expert. Likewise, before buying NGC or PCGS graded coins, many collectors seek opinions from other collectors or dealers. They’re seeking reassurance regarding quality and value.

Shouldn't the collector just give up at this point and start to collect something else - perhaps rocks? At some point needing further reassurance just means you're a p***y!

And why stop at a CAC opinion? Let's start a service that gives an opinion on CAC stickered coins. And again and again. We can provide a dozen or two opinions on a coin so the frightened collectors can have a ton of reassurance without ever needing to learn anything, because god forbid they learn anything about grading the item they are spending their hard earned money on. 

21 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Maybe, but JA is synonomous with CAC and is well-respected, do YOU know who the graders are at the TPG who went over your coins ?

 

Do YOU know who made the brakes on your car? No, but I suspect you believe the car company hired competent people and you have faith that your breaks are going to work. What does it say when a person has blind faith that their 3000 pound car will stop without killing them, but they need a third opinion before buying a trinket for their hobby. 

21 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

And one thing that hit like a heat-seeking missile was this statement:   if you complain or dislike grade inflation in the coin hobby, you can't be against CAC.

Actually, no. The idea that CAC will fight so-called gradeflation is completely a marketing ploy. If we take a solid MS65 graded today and CAC likes it, they give it a sticker. However, if the TPG alter their grading standards and now that coin is considered a solid MS66, CAC will still sticker it. If they don't change their standards along with the TPG, they will be out of business. CAC must adjust to the TPG, not the other way around. In the CAC/TPG relationship, CAC is the leach. 

1 hour ago, MarkFeld said:

As mentioned previously, CAC doesn’t award stickers based on percentages, but rather A, B and C coin classifications. And there’s no assurance that each of those is compromised of the same percentage of coins.

But A & B get a green sticker. How will buyers know if it is an A or B? The horror!! Shouldn't A coins get a better sticker? Perhaps a blue leach? 

1 hour ago, Alex in PA. said:

I would like to present this scenario:  Dealer has a beautiful 1884 NGC MS 66 Carson City Morgan Dollar.  Dealer sends coin to CAC where it is rejected.  In comes Mr. Newbie and falls in love with coin.  Mr. Newbie asks Dealer "Has this been to CAC for a look?"   What do you think the dealer will say?

Look buddy, it's 800* 1200 bucks. Do you want it or not? 

*Oops, my bad. Didn't see it was a newbie asking. 

4 hours ago, thebeav said:

This is only going to ding the seller's stars for shipping time. A category that doesn't even belong in 'feedback' anymore, since the shipping delays started long ago.

Sellers only get dinged if they ship the package outside their stated handling time. I say 2 days handling time with a cutoff at 11 AM. So if you pay at 9 AM on Monday, I have to show that the package was mailed by end of day Wednesday. Doesn't matter is the package takes one day or one month to arrive to the buyer as long as tracking shows that I shipped within my stated handling time. 

2 hours ago, DWLange said:

My issue is with the duplicity, not the causes. If the USPS is unable to deliver on time it should not be altering the data to hide that fact.

There is no "on time" delivery for the package. Outside of Express Mail, it's all an estimate.

eBay is just updating their estimated delivery date. I'd be more upset if they kept the estimated delivery date knowing it was wrong rather than update it to a more likely delivery date. Would it make you feel better knowing the package should have been delivered 5 days ago or that based on its current location it'll be delivered in 2 days?