GoldFinger1969

If someone wants to know the prices for an MS-65 or MS-63 1923-D Saint-Gaudens for 1986 or 2006....I don't think the HA data is going to change today vs. when RWB computed it. Historical data doesn't change unless the data itself does (don't know how that could happen here) or there are benchmark revisions as with government GDP and economic statistics. CURRENT GC/HA/SB/Ebay data is the best for CURRENT pricing....I'm talking about the price for a specific coin in a certain grade 3 years ago or 10 years ago or 35 years ago (RWB's price grid goes back to 1976). Most of those archives you cited don't go back more than a decade except for HA and even their stuff is very sporadic before 1995.

This hobby has lots of down-time when we are not approaching or closing a final purchase of a coin. Do any of you spend time -- besides on forums like these -- doing stuff other than the acual buying/selling of a coin ? Here's what I do in between purchases: (1) Reading & posting on Forums, including this one (of course ! ). (2) Reading books on the coins I collect/enjoy. (3) Reading older articles from years ago or even decades ago for historical knowledge or relationship to contemporary events. Many of them are on the internet. (4) Reading current or older auction catalogs. Scanning and looking for them, too !! (5) Researching prices, recent and years ago, for major coin types I follow. I do this at HA and GC. (6) Reading the coin descriptions at HA or SB on Trophy Coins which usually have lots of interesting stuff on the coin type involved (i.e., Saints or Morgans). The information on higher-priced coins tends to increase the more the price does. Alot of the information I have -- especially from the Internet (articles, forum posts, columns, etc.) -- I cut-and-paste and will save in Word & PDF format so I have it permanently on my PC and can share it with others and preserve it (articles and websites go down or disappear). I wouldn't say it's new research or super-important stuff.....more of a compendium....but it has lots of useful information and some trivial that might be of interest to people looking for the backstory to particular coins, sales, coin types, the hobby, financial impacts, etc.

It's there, trust me. And there are lots of posts here (and maybe threads) that talk about it.

You get a coin collector elected president !!

I don't know about the age-thing, but yes it is fraud and embezzlement. Charlie Gasparino of FBC and The NY Post nailed it by saying SBF is trying to deflect blame with his "I f***** up" admissions. No evidence of that, I would be surprised if they had any inkling of the illlegal activities. This was a LEGIT COMPANY doing ILLEGITIMATE THINGS...it APPEARED to be on the up-and-up as with that hillarious FTX Super Bowl commercial with Larry David.

Any reason why that coin was graded "BU" by NGC with no grade ? Was it one of those things where you get a bulk discount if you eschew a numerical grade and just go for a more general classification ?

I think that the HISTORICAL data shouldn't change that much on something like past selling prices. Using the HA archives is a very good source....had it been an amalgamation of Ebay completed sales and asking prices, that's another thing. The data in the price grids for every Saint should be 99% accurate/good even if a 2nd edition needs to be done. What MIGHT change is 2014 and 2015, the most recent two years in the grid -- and of course, we don't have anything for 2016 to the present since the book was published in 2018 and the data covers 1976-2015. Right, for things that are fluid and change -- like a population census. That can change over time from hoards, new finds, etc. But something fixed like average selling price shouldn't be revised back too much, unless you changed the method of computation (i.e., instead of using HA solo, also incorporating GC or SB).

Yes, and as I posted on another thread somewhere, I saw a glitch with a 1-year bump-up in prices on the NGC Price Graph for MS-67 1908 NM Saints. Just went from about $9K to $15K for 1 year and came down. No other grades moved like that, and gold didn't either. Yeah, wondering about 2 different 1908 NM WF Saints I had both MS-66, one from PCGS and one from NGC......also posted in another thread here. NGC coin went for 20% more. I think I saw rub and a mysterious band on the PCGS from the Eagles underbelly to the 8 O'Clock position but I am not sure. Usually, PCGS coins sell at the premium.

As an example, Roger has a matrix in his Saints Double Eagles book for every coin based on HA actual sales prices. It's very useful and would save anybody lots of time for price estimates except for the most recent price quotes (the data ends in 2015 in the book).

It DOES make sense that with the economy and work habits returning to normal -- and govt checks ending -- that people would drift away from habits they took up in 2020 and 2021. It will be interesting to see how many full-time coin collectors we eventually hold from the pandemic era.

Two things....first, it didn't help the grading strictness that right after the 2 major TPGs started operating in 1986-87...you had a HUGE coin bubble that took prices up 2x or 3x on the belief that Wall Street $$$ would be flowing into coins. The greater usage of electronic quote machines for dealers compared to 10 years earlier during the gold bubble didn't help, either. Second....it's possible NGC coins were bid higher than PCGS during the late-1980's or early-1990's. Whether that was true for all/most coins or just select series, I don't know -- I wan't into coins at the time. John Albanese jumped to NGC so maybe the strict period was associated with him (anybody know when he left NGC ?). I believe it was the early-to-mid 2000's when the PCGS premium came about. It may have been influenced by the premiums that Trophy Collectors were willing to pay for certain coins in select series (i.e., Saints) and this filtered down to other coins/series. Or....it may have been because NGC really was overgrading lots of coins. Or it may have been because NGC graded a few coins or series loosely and PERCEPTION took over. Again, I didn't follow this too closely but I read that this is when technical grading morphed into market grading. Maybe NGC took it more liberally than PCGS -- dunno. I will say this: most of the "gradeflation" threads I read NOW and in recent years seem to focus on PCGS. Maybe there were some legacy coins graded by NGC that were loosely graded but I don't think that's a problem now. Let's face it...if some people, especially Trophy Collectors with Big $$$, decide they WANT one TPG over another (for whatever reason, legit or not)....then prices will be higher for that TPG and it filters down to other coins and series. Rational or not.

Actual prices are always best. Takes time but no substitute for actual sales. I do find the NGC (and PCGS, if they have it, can't remember) price GRAPHS useful for a quick-and-dirty look at the price movement going back years. The recent prices might be off but you can see the TREND clearly. But even that you have to take with caveats. I was looking at 1908 NM WF Saints in MS-67. I punched up the NGC price chart going back to like 2006, maximum or all or whatever. It looked like I thought it would....except....right around 2015 the price jumped from like $9,00 to $15,000 and stayed there for about 1 year and then dropped back down again. It looked like a square camel's hump "bump" in the price that stood out. No other price jumps for other high-grade 1908 NM Saints....could have been an outlier with 1 or 2 sales for whatever reason....could be an error in the data, I didn't explore further. Wasn't the market or 1908 Saints or the gold price or anything acting weird at that time.

I just see the same stuff listed for MONTHS if not years going unsold. It's like they are waiting for the market to move 50% in their favor....or....hoping somebody totally clueless happens to stumble on theirs and bid high. Another thing I've seen: market is $300.....they list it for BIN for $700....someone makes an offer for $500 and gets it at that price or maybe after negotiating $550 or whatever. Still a huge premium even though the buyer thinks he got a great deal and "saved" 30% or so. Prices can fluctuate on Ebay bigtime, especially for stuff that doesn't sell that often or is somewhat unique. I once bought a rare Sports Illustrated I wanted from the 1970's and paid like $80 for it. Then a few weeks later an identical condition issue went for like $15. I learned then that unless I really needed something or an item was rare and wasn't listed weekly or very frequently...don't chase !!

Really ? I wasn't aware anything CC had declined of late. What price range Morgans are we talking about that you saw the declines ?

Online, LCS, or coin show ?

We'll see if Powell is Volcker or Arthuer Burns tomorrow about 2:30 PM.

The spikes then were bubbles where the prices went up 500-1,000% as I recall. Prices than dropped 75-85% for the coins hawked by the telemarketers and gold/silver dealers.

Shouldn't the all-in costs for a seller on Ebay be somewhere between GC and HA ? I see more ridiculous ask prices on Ebay that are anywhere from 20% high for very liquid, frequently-sold items (i.e., popular Saints) to 50-200% over FMV or recent sales prices for less-actively seen coins/items (i.e., modern commemoratives or 5 ounce silvers).

FTW, did you end up sending in the coin for a grade ? Any more MSDs added to your collection ?

This is a really good thread with great posts, information, and back-and-forth. Even though I didn't contribute, I didn't want it to fall by the wayside so quickly. Maybe other Morgan fans here want to comment.

Check out the pair of MS-66 1908 WF NM Saints I posted in another thread, PCGS and NGC. If the weak feathers on the PCGS and the band towards 8 PM from the belly are NOT rub/wear, then it's very strange that the NGC would sell for 20% more than the PCGS coin. I can't tell if the feathers/band are rub/wear.

Nice coin....did you have to pay up for it if you were looking for this type for a while ? Carson City stuff is hot and has been for a few years now.

I see lots of gold coins on GC going without bids; buyers aren't just paying up. They will let the coins come in to them.

BTW, they are now up to the 7th Edition for the Bower's MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR book. Wish someone would do a 2nd one for DOUBLE EAGLES.

That is something that is Securities Law 101. Accounts must be segregated. Forget about "regulation of crypto" -- this is about basic custodial accounts. ANY business which takes monies has to adhere to this principel -- you can't take my downpayment for something and put it to another make-good. Instead of worrying about crypto itself, they should have been worried about the actual accounts. They weren't. It's aking to worrying about if my tech stocks are too risky for my age instead of....is my account being raided by the firm ? Yes, but even without the right structure there had to have been (or should have been) basic custodial recordkeeping audits. What about back-ups in case of a power failure ? In case of a cyber attack ? EMP attack ? Basic stuff. Yup....would have helped. You would think that the regulators -- who can regulate FIRMS if not CRYPTO -- should have been on this. Ditto the private investors. Fundamental principle of investing: custodial oversight is NOT with the firm making the investments (unless you trust a Big Bulge Bracket Firm like JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, etc.). Even those firms may use others to clear and verify trades, I'm not sure. But I know that most RIAs and small asset managers use firms like JPM Chase, Goldman, etc. to verify their trades. This way.....THEY are on the hook. If I open up "GoldFinger Asset Management" and I steal the money and am producing MY OWN statements, I can get away with anything for a long time. But if I clear through JPM Chase or Fidelity or Schwab.....THEY are on the hook and will insist the $$$ be held by them because the statements have their names on it and they're liable. That is how Madoff got away with his fraud. In fact, I am unaware of any material fraud or Ponzi Scheme where a big Wall Street firm was involved in clearing. There, the problem is excessive trading, risky trading, high commissions, etc. But no outright fraud. Self-clearing or clearing with a firm nobody ever heard of is 10 red flags.