GoldFinger1969

We have some experts on Peace Dollars, and Roger wrote/edited a Whitman book on them, so help is on the way ! 

On 7/24/2023 at 6:44 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, practically all of it, whether it is visible to the market or not.  It has to be somewhere.

You're saying that ALL or VIRTUALLY ALL small legal coinage in the last 60 years still exists ?  Wasn't some taken out and destroyed over time ?

On 7/24/2023 at 4:58 PM, RWB said:

Pioneer gold imitations made using copy dies. 1908 DE from the "Wells Fargone" hoard.

What about ?

On 7/24/2023 at 2:36 PM, World Colonial said:

You're referring to a specific coin or series, and one that isn't even representative of (US) collecting.  Most collectors or non-collectors will never own a (US) gold coin in their entire life.  It's above their budget level.

He was also talking about small denomination U.S. coins, including 1950's and 1960's coins.  If you can find it, it's Numismatic News....January 13, 2010 by Paul Green.  I'll try and find the link.

On 7/24/2023 at 1:17 PM, RWB said:

Except for catching most counterfeits submitted to them, nothing has really improved since they started operation....well prices for coins have been inflated by fee recovery. Registry participants are only a small subset of collectors and collections.

I still think it's better than decades ago.  Just last night I saw 1899 Liberty Head DEs being sold in MS-62 for $3,300 when the market for them is probably $2,200 give-or-take.

"Somewhat-Neutral TPGs....." 

On 7/24/2023 at 2:29 PM, World Colonial said:

The US Mint claims it sold millions of these sets in the past and still sells hundreds of thousands now.  Since the sales volume has collapsed from prior decades, I assume that most buyers are what we'd consider "casual" collectors, but I don't know that definitively.  The fact is, they bought it, so I assume they wanted it. Regardless, given the numbers previously sold, even with abnormally high attrition, the number and quality surviving by any sensible standard cannot be considered low.  It's only "low" by comingling it with your inflated future demand.  Demand is demand.  i disagree with you on future demand too, b ut that's something else entirely.

40 and 50 and 60 and 70 years ago.....there was NOTHING else to do, besides play baseball or go bowling or whatever. 

No internet...no social media...no video games (!).  Everybody I knew collected baseball cards or coins or stamps.  Or 2 or all 3 of them.  NOBODY I knew didn't collect at least one of them.

Today, most of the youngsters I know don't collect ANY of them. 

On 7/24/2023 at 2:17 PM, World Colonial said:

Same response I received from the South African collectors I know.  They also assumed if they didn't see it, it didn't exist.

At the risk of showing my confusion on all the back-and-forth .....can't we assume with bequests, estate sales, and a rising price that should attract hidden hoards...if we haven't seen it by now, chance are BIG QUANTITIES -- not talking about isolated coins -- are NOT forthcoming ?

Paul Green said as much in Numismatic News a bit over a decade ago.  Not that hoards wouldn't be forthcoming, but the LIKELIHOOD of future 1908 No Motto Wells Fargo or 1983 El Salvadore/MTB Hoards coming out are unlikely.  He also mentioned small denomination hoards over the decades and rumours of folks with tens of thousands of them like the 1909-S VDB cent.

I'd love to post the article but I can't attach PDFs here !!! 

On 7/24/2023 at 12:09 PM, Jake7419 said:

New meaning I started about six months. I do a lot of research everyday. I just posted them on ebay and let the costumers decide if they want to buy them. I found this website hoping knowledgeable people would help me determine what was real. I just never saw a quarter with that kind of damage.

But you are posting FRAUDULENT information and you admit you are not an expert in this field.   It's one thing to sell 1 or 2 coins inadvertently by accident; it's quite another to knowingly sell multiple items.  You could be forced to make amends for overcharging worthless merchandise; worst case, arrested for fraud.

Years ago they arrested a guy up in Connecticut who was making fake Morgans or Caped Busts or something like that.  He was hard up for $$$ -- didn't matter.  Secret Service moved in...arrested....convicted.....jailed !! 

On 7/24/2023 at 12:10 PM, VKurtB said:

MANY MANY advanced collectors don't DO slabs; they just don't! Many use literal "cabinets". They're not spoken of as an abstract thing. Many wonderful ones are built in Italy.

Kurt, I don't doubt there are SOME based on what you, Zadok, and other vets have said.  But it does appear that the most serious and big-time registry players have gone through the TPGs.

Have you seen any rare coins (Saints) that were NOT holdered by a TPG that have come on the market ?  It's VERY rare.  And almost always NOT a Top 10 or Top 5 coin.

This is what the TPGs were created to be:  neutral, 3rd-party arbiters.  You have a raw collector seller who insists his is a strong MS-66, maybe an MS-66+ or MS-66 CAC....the buyer insists it's no higher than an MS-65 and MIGHT be an MS-64...you're talking tens of thousands of dollars or more being left on the table. 

On 7/24/2023 at 10:53 AM, RWB said:

Authentication company populations are not reliable single sources. Among many biases, they do not state the total number of each piece submitted -- only how many were authenticated.

Yes....I believe you incorporated a method to eliminate double-counting as discussed about 50 pages ago.   

But for a low-pop total if all the coins are in PCGS holders (or NGC, for that matter), then we can assume we're not double-counting.

Anyway...if we resurrect this thread in 20 years I would venture that the number of MS-66 or better 1909-D's will NOT have seen the increase that we saw from 2000-23...unless there's some super-secretive lucrative hoard(s) we don't know about with pristine coins similar to the 1983 El Salvador/MTB Hoard. 

1909-D from 2000-2023:  I thought this was interesting from last year's Bass sale of a top-ranked 1909-D Saint.  This is NOT one of the Top 5 Saints in terms of wants/desires....Roger has it 14th in terms of scarcity rank.

"....In the more than two decades since this coin was sold as part of the Harry W. Bass, Jr. Collection, the PCGS certified population has increased in MS66 from two submissions to six, while the number exceeding it (in MS67, the finest certified at that service), has increased from one to two coins. Those figures, which undoubtedly include at least one or two resubmissions, are an eloquent testament to the extreme rarity of the 1909-D issue (52,500 coins struck) in the finest Mint State grades."

The coin appreciated from $39,100 to $264,000, a compounded rate of 8.7% a year (one of the higher numbers I've seen for a trophy coin)....despite the population increase.  The TPGs had only been around 13-14 years when the low-pop census in 2000 was taken; since then, it's been 23 years and while they were increased, it wasn't like a torrential flood (indeed, the prices went UP for the top pops, though you could make the case they'd have gone up more if the pop numbers had remained constant).

Net-Net:  I doubt we see a proportionate or absolute boost in 1909-D's in the next 23 years as we did the last 23. 

On 7/23/2023 at 5:23 PM, VKurtB said:

Most towns that HAD coin clubs still do. New ones are springing up all over. Lancaster PA has the Red Rose Club with ~200 members, average attendance of 70-80 and meet twice a month. This in a town of 50,000. Gadsden, Alabama has the Gadsden/Rainbow City Coin Club with between 150-200 members who meet WEEKLY. Average attendance around 60. The newest one near me is the Madison County Coin Club in Huntsville, AL. They have a smaller average attendance but more serious collectors. COVID ALMOST killed the Madison County Club but it has hung in. COVID did seem to kill off about 50 clubs nationwide. We BELIEVE most of those were clubs dependent on one strong personality who didn’t survive the pandemic. 

What can you do weekly in these meetings ?  I mean, what changes week-to-week ?  Monthly meetings I guess make sense, but weekly ?

On 7/23/2023 at 12:30 PM, zadok said:

...all u really have to do is go to any large coin show e.g. FUN n walk the floor n look at the dealers inventories on display...virtually no moderns n even less clads n if u want to really check out the prevailing winds try selling the dealers bank rolls of either....

I went to FUN 2020 and saw plenty of modern coins and commemoratives.  Out of let's call it 300 dealers, I'd say 20% had some kind of modern coin or commemorative from recent decades.

I'd call it somewhat less numerous than Morgan dealers, but more than Saint dealers.

On 1/18/2023 at 6:17 PM, Bignubnumismatics said:

I’m looking for a December 1991, January 1992, and January 1996 NGC Census or Population report.

Any condition as long as everything is readable!

Any luck finding them ?  I sometimes see reports on Ebay.

On 7/23/2023 at 12:05 PM, powermad5000 said:

I would agree with that 100% but here I am with a 1972 that almost fifty years later developed that spot. Which raises the question on these spots, if not now, when? @EagleRJO since this happened to you not long after yours was made, do you plan to sell the spotted one and get another one with no spot? Just curious.

If we find out it was holdered in recent years, that could explain some later contamination.

On 7/23/2023 at 10:20 AM, cladking said:

Yes.  Individually this is the biggest driver of change and especially in their individual collections.  But people are a product of their place and time so there will be little similarity between the goals of a Soviet collector from the 1940's and a British collector from the 21st century.  weNew collectors today will not have the same perspective as the baby boomers from the 1950's.  

We have lots of collectors with expensive sets here.....what are YOU guys (and gals) doing with your collections ?  Is the wife or beneficiaries or estate going to hold it or sell it ?

If all the people who started collecting in the 1940's through 1970's have their sets unloaded it is a big demographic headwind for pricing going forward.

On 7/23/2023 at 9:54 AM, cladking said:

Actually what I really said was that there would be a new generation of collectors in 20 years.  Most of the old line collectors are baby boomers and won't be as active in the markets by the early 2030's.  This is already being seen at coin shows.  The new generation will not have learned to hate moderns in 1965 and odds are a larger proportion will want to collect them.  Who knows?  

We should be able to get some anectdotal evidence from dealers and Big Coin Show dealers/attendees about the demographic skew of the last year or few years of coin shows.....vs. 10-15-20 years ago.

On 7/23/2023 at 3:01 AM, powermad5000 said:

I submitted that coin about two or three years ago...can't remember exactly when. In your other comment you said decades....not sure where you read that in my post about it.

No, I was referencing other coins sealed for decades with no blemishes.  You would think a coin which hasn't spotted after 20 years is probably NOT going to spot going forward (at least most of the time ).

On 7/22/2023 at 8:02 PM, RWB said:

Mostly the first. 

You know.....$1 MM in gold was 1.5 tons or thereabouts....you put that all in a steel safe or container, it's gonna be REAL TOUGH to steal that !!

Anybody can make off with a few bags of gold, if you evade security and the guns. Who's getting a 2-ton safe with the goods loaded into a horse-and-buggy or a Model T ? 

On 7/22/2023 at 10:20 PM, World Colonial said:

I attribute your perception with your examples to a cultural preference.  Most US collectors prefer US coinage over all others, or at least that's where they spend the most budget.  It's also due to marketability but I infer they still prefer US coins anyway.

It's what we/they know.  You buy what you are comfortable with.

On 7/22/2023 at 10:20 PM, World Colonial said:

I think of US 20th century coinage totally differently.  Practically all of it can be bought any day of the week.  From the standpoint of studying the contemporary society, any coin can be equally collected in this context.  For non-US coinage, I'd place ancient or medieval coinage at the top, easily.  

I think being able to buy stuff most of the time is a PLUS.   Let price and condition/grade be the discriminating factor, not type availability.  How fun would this hobby be if most of the coins were unavailable in any grade ?

Look at the availability of Saints vs. Liberty Double Eagles, the latter being much harder to collect in their totality or even in lower grades for a given dollar spend.

On 7/22/2023 at 7:51 PM, VKurtB said:

By eliminating the geographical distance and knowledge between a nearly unlimited supply and VERY limited demand. I am COMPLETELY metal content agnostic, but only a fool would suggest there are lots of us. THERE AREN’T. 

We're not stamp collectors, and we always have the coin investor class (the PM investor class) willing to graduate and segue into pure numismatic collecting.  That's how I got into moderns, Morgans, and Saints. 

I don't think you can say that the Internet and Covid have NOT led to a resurgence somewhat in coin collecting, both numismatics and PM coins.  I see no rebound for stamp collecting in recent years....and sports cards and NFTs have definitely cooled from their bubblicious period in 2020-21...and I don't think 5,00 digital coins and tokens will still be standing in a few years, either.

Dealers say business is good.  Online auction houses are seeing record bidding activity, browsing, and registrations.  Big Coin Shows -- FUN, Long Beach, etc. -- have had great public attendance, great dealer table activity, and folks posting here as collectors or dealers (Charmy) say they were busy and profitable.

I think we're the Tortoise in this race.  Slow and steady....

On 7/22/2023 at 4:59 PM, VKurtB said:

Can I piggyback on your question? Who convinced you that looking for errors was a mainstream part of this hobby?

If that is addressed to me....I never said that.  Error collectors, the good ones, tend to be a highly-focused niche and very well-versed in numismatics.  In fact, there aren't many decent Error Threads here, ATS, or at CT.  It's very specialized.

We get more "I found this errror coin" threads or posts than any other Newbie misleading post/thread.  Heck, Sandon has created a How To link just for those posts !! 

On 7/22/2023 at 8:22 PM, RWB said:

That's a clear contamination spot likely deposited from dirty air.

Dirty air ?  You're not suggesting these things need to be sealed in a clean room, I hope !!  

What years is that NGC label from ?