I have some 30-year old articles talking about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90.  I thought I would post some of the declines of coins noted at that time and also give an updated price from recent sales in the last year or back a few years to see how they have done over the last 25-30 years (I used the Heritage Archive to get a feel for recent prices).

If any of you have knowledge on the coins I cited, please post.   Some of the coins I am completely unfamiliar with as to their pricing history and stories behind interest in them over the decades.  I also realize that it's tough to get a 100% apples-to-apples comparision because you never know if the price quotes back then were the high water-mark and/or if today's prices include special features.  For the most part, I tried to look at multiple recent sales prices without any special desiognations (CAC, VAM, DMPL, etc.) to be accurate to the original listing decades ago.

Article comments italicized...my comments and recent prices in blue.   Comments VERY welcome. 

No-Motto 1858 Liberty Seated Quarter….On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet listed this coin at $14,900 in MS-65 as certified by either PCGS or NGC.  The Insider’s Guide to U.S. Coin Values lists the same coin’s value in 1993 at less than half that amount–just $7,000. 

Looks like MS-66’s last few years (2021-23) sell for ~ $4,500 but MS-65’s were $2,000 or so 5-10 years ago (mid-2010’s).  65’s were $2,500 or so 2005-07. 

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet assigned a value of $555 to an 1880-S Morgan silver dollar certified as Mint State-65 by the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America (NGC). Today, that same coin is valued at only about $75. 

Looks like a generic Morgan SD common has come back to about $175-$200 as of early-2023.

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet value for a no-motto Liberty Seated half dollar graded MS-66 by the professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) was a whopping $39,000. Today, that coin is listed for only about one-third that amount. 

No date given for this coin (maybe they implied common year ?), but No Mottos seem to be about $5,500 which would be another 60-70% decline from the 1993 level.  $10,000 if you have special features or CAC apparently.  Can't believe how some of these U.S. Small Denomination coins got driven up in the 1980's !! 

On May 26, 1989, the Bluesheet assigned a value of $4,060 to a Saint-Gaudens double eagle graded MS-65 by NGC.  My book, The Insider’s Guide to U.S. Coin Values, lists it at only $1,200.

Saints I know pretty well, these have come back to $2,500 since gold is up 5-fold since then.  Big difference is that the premium back then to gold was about 700-800% which is insane.  Today, it's maybe 20-30% for an MS-65.

The price declines of common-date Morgan dollars have been every bit as dramatic for MS-66 and MS-67 specimens as they have for MS-65 pieces. In MS-66, the price has plunged from $1,400 to $200, and in MS-67 the drop has been from $3,950 to $680. 

For the 1880-S….66’s are $350 give-or-take in early-2023 and 67’s are about $900.  Both could be another 20% higher.

I found this very interesting because by going to the MS-67 level, you really are going for conditional scarcity.  The article was dated 1993, BTW so a 4-year decline was cited.

On 7/10/2023 at 8:43 AM, Nutmeg Coin said:

The arguments that we can't find people to do the jobs of immigrants just isn't true if you have facilitators who can make it work.  

Legal vs. illegal immigration is a separate debate.  Totally agree.

Wages RISING also attracts (quality) workers to open jobs.  That's the natural order of things, rather than continually bringing in cheaper labor or outsourcing.  Covid showed us the risks in that and you see it now with all the chip embargoes.

Chinese wage inflation is only going to get WORSE.  As their labor-age population shrinks, wages probably rise closer to 8% a year from 4%, meaning wage costs double in 9 years instead of 18 years.   That is HUGE for companies which build factories with 20-40 year expected lifespans as the costs are now much higher in years 20-40. 

It's why you see the shift to Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia and other SE Asian countries.  Or even Eastern Europe.  And of course, re-sourcing back in the States.

OK....back to LH DEs.....

On 7/10/2023 at 8:41 AM, World Colonial said:

I just checked the PCGS pop report since it seems to be preferred for modern US coinage.  Maybe 10 years ago, this coin in MS-67 FS was a pop 6 and one sold for $17K at some point on Heritage, an astronomically ridiculous price for such a common coin.  Now, the count is 44 with 10 more as a 67+ whereas before, there were none.  (Can't even remember when "+" was introduced.)THAT

THAT'S the big risk, new coins coming out that increase the population at the high-end.  Any idea what the price is now for an MS-67 FS ?  I'm going to guess that with 7X as many coins available the price went from about $17,000 to closer to $5,000 ?

I don't know what condition this coin was traded in pre-TPG in the early-1960's, but if it went up to $100 back then in a bubble-peak, after the bubble burst, what did the price settle down for what was probably I guess the equivalent of an MS-65 coin ?  We talking $25 or $5 ?

I'm always fascinated to see what happens to prices of coins during and after bubbles and to see where they are decades later.

On 7/10/2023 at 5:45 AM, Sandon said:

Unfortunately, your "coin" is a crude counterfeit, probably of a Draped Bust, Small Eagle reverse silver dollar based on your photos 

If it were a legit coin, then raw...how much would it have been worth ?  Ballpark.....

On 7/10/2023 at 6:59 AM, matina said:

Thanks everyone for gently pointing that out. Yes, it seems a very obvious replica. I have no knowledge on coins, so I didn't immediately figure that out.

Where or when did you get it ?  How much did you pay ?

On 7/9/2023 at 6:43 PM, World Colonial said:

Like other similar period key and semi-key dates, I don't consider the price low for the supply.  Last I checked, PCGS had graded over 500 FS MS-66 and there is a huge supply in lower grades, more graded by NGC, and probably far more outside of a holder than in one for all grades except MS-67.This was many years ago, but it was a $100+ coin at the time.  Like practically every post 1933 non-commemorative US coin, it's one I expect to sell for less than the grading fee or a nominal premium to silver spot decades from now.

You saying the price has held up over the last few decades (I don't track Nickels) ?  This is a hard coin....even improperly cared for, there might be lots more that grade Superb Gem or higher, no ?

On 6/25/2023 at 11:00 AM, VKurtB said:

Not until NOW, anyway. You never see a nation's collapse when it's happening, do you?

In the past, no, because we didn't have the data set.  Now, we do -- often in minutes or hours what used to take YEARS or decades to accumulate.

For instance, the working-age population of China is going to shrink from 925 MM to 750 MM (maybe less) by 2050.  This is a MAJOR headwind for China, one we've known about for decades thanks to their "1-Child" policy.  Similarly, we know about the demographic problems in the EU and UK.  

India has a surging labor force the next few decades, but regional vs. federal jurisdicational issues and government regulatory interference might make them squander the 2020's and 2030's like they did previous decades.

Yes, the U.S. has problems -- but we are the cleanest house in a dirty neighborhood.

On 7/9/2023 at 1:25 PM, Just Bob said:

This was in 1986, when they were first issued. No one was grading them then.

Got it, they were issued for the Centennial of Lady Liberty in NY.    PCGS would start up later that year, NGC the next year.  But I don't believe they took modern coins until a few years later.

On 7/9/2023 at 2:57 AM, Just Bob said:

I also remember when the Statue of Liberty $5 gold coins came out. The 500,000 mintage sold out before the coins were issued. Original pre-sale price was $160 for the MS and $165 for the Proof. The MS version was the lower mintage of the two at under 100,000 pieces. At the first major coin show after the release, they were selling for over $700. That price came back down to earth just a few years later. Even now, you can buy a slabbed MS70 for around $600.

I take it the MS-70's sold for 4-figures if a regular ungraded OGP sold for $700 ?  This was in the 1980's or 1990's ?

Burton Blumert (I guess he was big in silver coins decades ago) wrote this in an article I came across from October 1990:

“The MS-65 cheerleaders contend that they are providing investor liquidity through repurchase of these coins. No matter how well intentioned, this small group of dealers could never withstand a selling wave, whether the coins are encased in plastic bricks or not. And it has always been so. Witness the bursting of the South Seas Bubble, the collapse of the tulip craze and the disastrous Ponzi-style real estate and stock pyramids. In our own industry, we need only look at the fall of the 1960 small-date cents and 1950-D Jefferson nickels"

Blumert believed that the TPGs had created "false security" among dealers, collectors, investors, and the public....and that the confluence of the TPGs, Wall Street money coming in, liquidity, and mass retail participation.....would sustain prices.  Also, even though the population reports were now replacing guesses and outdated Red Books, what were being sold as "low pop" coins in fact had many more coins in their grade.  This was true for the coins costing $400 (see above) but also super-rare Morgan's or gold coins that were selling for 5-figures and were worth maybe a third or a fourth of that price.

On 7/9/2023 at 2:57 AM, Just Bob said:

When PCGS and NGC first started grading, common date Morgans like the 1881-s in MS65 sold for upwards of $800. Of course, an MS65 back then was today's MS66 or MS67. Still, it was a lot to pay for a coin that turned out to be common in higher grades. The price has dipped below $100 several times over the years since then. MS65s are selling now on Ebay for $170 - $200.

Yes, and only a few years after both PCGS and NGC started up operations you had the infamous Coin Bubble of 1989.

Randy Campbell noted these price drops for Peace Dollars in an article from August 1994:

On 7/8/2023 at 4:21 PM, Sandon said:

  I recall 1973-S silver clad Proof (a.k.a. "brown box") Eisenhower dollars (mint issue price $10) being offered later in the 1970s for as much as $200! The mintage of slightly over one million pieces was touted as "low"!  Today they can be had for $25 or so in the original packaging.

I'm not surprised.  Silver went up 10-20x and you had a bubble in coins to drive the price up.  People thought silver was going to go up even more, ditto gold.

On 7/8/2023 at 1:21 AM, powermad5000 said:

Thanks @GoldFinger1969 and @Coinbuf! Now I know. Then I guess it really does depend on what the OP has that he would like to get stickered.

It's also possible he's not doing it for $$$ reasons, but just to see how his coins grade out....if his opinion of them being "strong for the grade" is matched by CAC and JA.....and also because he might not be able to do it in a few years when CAC stickering is finished and they concentrate solely on grading. 

On 7/8/2023 at 1:09 AM, Coinbuf said:

I can say with confidence that a gold bean will almost always bring a much higher price, I have seen MS65 coins with a gold bean sell for more than an MS68 graded coin, the gold bean market is hot!

Do you recall what coin series that was for ?

It also shows that the value of the (gold) bean is worth MORE than any possible 1 or 2 grade increments given to the coin.  I think now folks want the beans -- because CAC apparently will be stopping that in the (near) future -- and will pay up for MORE than what even an optimistic grade upgrade could bring for the coin. 

On 7/7/2023 at 8:49 PM, Nutmeg Coin said:

Thanks for sharing the factoids from the QDB book, I always found him to be a top notch numismatist and competent writer. 

Glad you liked them, Nutmeg !   Like I said, this coffee table book (where's Kramer !!??  ) has probably about 1/3rd of the book on Liberty Head DEs, gold, gold-related mining, etc...and the rest is the financial and economic happenings of the day, plus little trivial things like years when some famous companies commenced operations or the little things about Maxwell House Coffee and Wrigley Chewing Gum.

Bowers IS a good writer.  I found the first third of the book a bit difficult to get into, but after a while the style grows on you and the focus on gold holdings by the Treasury, National Banks, and the public a good reference point especially as it pretty much was mentioned every year after about 1880.  Would have probably been good to have that for the earlier years, too (but maybe data not available ?).

It's interesting that the English tended to melt down our gold coins but France and other European countries kept them largely intact.

1795 Capped Bust Gold Eagle 9 Leaves PCGS MS-63+ CAC (Ex. Pogue & Simpson Collections):  

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1350274/1795-Capped-Bust-Gold-Eagle-9-Leaves-PCGS-MS-63-CAC-Ex-Pogue-Simpson-Collections

I happened to see that this coin just sold on GC for $2.4 MM (ex bp; $2.7 MM with bp) but it had sold in January 2022 to Bob Simpson for $3.36 MM.  This is a super-rare, high-end coin but I think the falling price since Simpson bought it shows you that if you don't have another well-heeled buyer at the ready, the price can fall and this one did by about 20% in a little over a year.

On 7/8/2023 at 12:40 AM, powermad5000 said:

Does anyone know if having a CAC sticker on your slab gets any much significantly higher of a premium for the coin versus not having the sticker? 

Depends on what the next higher grade is price-wise !  

Getting a CAC on an MS-62 or even MS-63 1927 Saint is not going to mean much, maybe $100 give-or-take because that's at most what happens if your coin were to be graded 1 increment higher.  So $100 or 5% of the price -- not alot.

OTOH....if you have an MS-66 1927 Saint and it CAC stickers, you can expect a price jump of a few thousand dollars because an MS-67 might cost $15,000 or more whereas a plain MS-66 is probably going to run you $4,000 or so.

It depends on the price jump to the next highest grade both in absolute and percentage terms. 

On 7/7/2023 at 4:58 PM, Sandon said:

It doesn't matter to CAC whether you or I may think that an NGC or PCGS certified coin is very nice for the grade.  It matters only that John Albanese and those whom he employs at CAC think that the coin is nice for the grade.  If you think that your already third-party graded coins are nice for their assigned grade, why would you need CAC to validate your opinion for additional effort and expense?   If you think that CAC stickers have any real significance, it might be more economical and convenient to buy certified coins that already bear a CAC sticker.

True Sandon...at the same time, he does believe he has some certified coins that are worthy of CAC status.  Maybe they are, maybe they aren't.  Apparently, he wants to give it a shot (I presume for the 1st time).

On 7/7/2023 at 7:21 PM, VKurtB said:

People can actually be paid to generate clicks to links and it is OUR DUTY to ferret those out of this forum. He links to a service that generates fake papers and dissertations. How can there be ANY defense of that?

Well, creating an account here at NGC Forums and then waiting to post in a thread....all to post a link that might be seen by 10-15 posters.... and then clicked on by 3 or 4.....seems like a waste to me.   

On 7/7/2023 at 3:34 PM, Ohnoimbroke said:

I have coins that I personally think are very nice for the grade . If / When possible I rather not completely waste money . How do I select coins to send in ? There's no CAC associated dealers near me . 

Post them here and ask the experts which ones are worth betting on.  That's what I would do.

And yeah, you need to submit through a dealer or a CAC-authorized person as I understand it...not like submitting to PCGS or NGC directly.

On 7/7/2023 at 11:19 AM, RWB said:

Double eagles were about $42-48 during and after WW-II. They hit about $55 in the early 1970s - I bought some from Switzerland back then. (Mangy, dirty, lightly circulated.) It was the late 1980s before gold spot prices pushed DE upward.

My 1970 Red Book lists some common Saints in VERY FINE, EXTREMELY FINE, and UNCIRCULATED.  $85, $95, and $110 are the prices that keep repeating for those conditions in a generic common coin.

On 7/7/2023 at 11:04 AM, RWB said:

I recall Republic Bank got a few, but they were gobbled up by employees. Wealthy could easily buy one with the premium.

I'm surprised that JP Morgan, who was a noted art collector, wasn't into coins.  Interesting.....

On 7/7/2023 at 10:56 AM, zadok said:

...the most interesting question to me..."how many new discoveries did it take to move the individual dates from one group to another?"...2, 4, 10????....

The big change was the 1950's and 1960's.  Saints like the 1924-S, 1926-S, and 1924-D (the Top 3 in the 1940's) were directly impacted by even a small find in the 1950's since it was assumed their total population was low single-digits.  Until the Secret Service got involved, some thought these coins were rarer than the 1933 DE (I guess they assumed a few 1933's got out). 

It wouldn't take many finds or hoards or actual coins to impact the price and rankings -- 2 or 3 or 4 coins could double the known population and crater the price (as happened).  Conversely, a coin that was ASSUMED to have dozens available that didn't -- the 1927-D -- after about 10 years of nobody finding any after WW II, shot up in the rankings and price.

Look at how the entire top ranking of my "Ultra Rare" coins goes down to the "Semi-Rare" (I probably should have used the word "scarce").

You could see the impact with 1 or 2 small finds impacting the price in the auctions of the late-1940's/early-1950's.  Coins catalogued for $1,500 would go begging for $600.  Individual buyers for those coins had gotten theirs already, unknown to the dealers/catalogers/sellers.  Roger's book mentions this as does the HA commentaries.

More little factoids and interesting nuggets from QDB's Liberty Head DE book:

• 1887:  The Treasury had $182 MM in gold coins…..National Banks had $99 MM…..circulation/private hands were $245 MM.  Gold exports were $3.6 MM and imports were $5.9 MM.  Watch imports/export gold numbers change bigtime as financial stress hits !

• Grandfather of John W. Garrett (1979 coin sale) was T. Harrison Garret who perished in a boating accident in 1888.

• 1890:  Stress in economy and global finance apparent, plus fear of silver payback (William Jennings Bryan !) for foreign bond holders.  June-August 1889 saw net exports of gold of $14 MM….January 1890 through August 1891 net export amount was $75 MM.

• Stirrings of opposition to the lack of artistic design in America’s silver and gold coinage started about 1880.

• 1891:  ASG, Charles Barber chief engraver., and Boston Engraver Henry Mitchell met in 1891 to look over new designs.  They largely stunk.  Mint Director Leech called it “too wretched a failure.”

• 1892 July 31:   Treasury had $357 MM in gold coins……National Banks @ 7.5 MM…..circulation/private hands at $49.4 MM

• Recently-freed black slaves liked Morgan Silver Dollars as they distrusted paper currency.

• European banks and investors suffered losses in South American securities and Argentina in the early-1890’s so they converted their U.S. holdings to gold.  HUGE withdrawals !

• When Nevada started to drop in silver production in the post-Bonanza years, Colorado (24 MM ounces annually), Montana (17 MM), and Idaho (8 MM) picked up the slack.  Ditto gold with Cripple Creek west of Denver. 

• William Wrigley Jr. sold chewing gum as an add-in to baking soda and soaps.  Eventually, he realized there was more interest in the gum. 

• 1892:  there were 4,400 millionaires in the U.S.  In 1840, there were under 20.

• 1893…..Treasury had $73.6 MM in gold….National Banks had $151.2 MM….circulated/private holdings @ 281.9 MM….imports = $6.1 MM, exports = $101.8 MM !!

• 500 banks failed in 1893.

• Robert Garret, son of T. Garrison Garrett and father of John Garrett, won America’s 1st Olympic Gold Medal ever in 1896...in discus throwing.