GoldFinger1969

On 7/18/2023 at 4:28 PM, RWB said:

He received the largest fees of any artist in America, and rarely kept to a deadline.

It's fun to speculate -- and a bit sad, too -- to think what he could have done with our coinage had he lived another 10-15 years.

Wonder if the Saint designs might have changed on the obverse or reverse after about a decade or so.

On 7/18/2023 at 9:41 PM, Sandon said:

   The Mexican 50 pesos (dated 1921-31 and 1944-47, KM #481) and similar but undenominated pieces dated 1943 (KM #482) contain 1.2057 troy oz. of .900 fine gold. The pieces dated 1947 are largely restrikes made as late as 2013, but the earlier dates are likely contemporary to the dates they bear.  I recall that certain earlier dates used to have premiums, but the NGC World Coin Price Guide now lists all dates at near their bullion value. Mexico ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS 50 Pesos KM 481 Prices & Values | NGC (ngccoin.com).

Yup, I was thinking mostly of Europe....but good catch, Sandon. 

Is a "restrike" in your example they used original 1947 dies and just used them again 66 years later ?  If they did, was other newer technology used to give a much higher quality strike and nicer coin -- or did they use everything fixed to 1947 ?

You would think they would create a new coin/design, like new Libertads.  But the 1.2 ounce Pesos have been quoted in the BARRON'S gold price listings for decades, FWIW.  Might be popular with some collectors and/or Hispanics in the U.S.

On 7/18/2023 at 9:38 AM, BearlyHereBear said:

Just a thought on proof sets:  Clad proof sets are not as likely to appreciate in value over time.  Most are readily available on Ebay for very modest prices.  Silver proof set hold and gain value better

Isn't it just a question of too much supply ? 

When they were released in the late-1960's through 1980's, clad and other Mint/Proof sets were sold to the Baby Boom generation which saw earlier purchases of coins catch a demographic and investment and precious metals wave from 1970-1980 that made some investors (including some here) very rich.

I think lots of people thought buying stuff with 7-figure mintages would replicate that earlier success of coin collectors from 1933-1970 in 10 or 20 or 40 years.

Nope !! 

On 12/8/2022 at 5:22 PM, World Colonial said:

I believe the Rooster series is widely known among US collectors of any earlier (as in not "modern") world coinage.  The British Sovereign is by far the best known, but the Rooster is known along with others like the Swiss 10CHF and 20CHF.

For those who want to collect a series of non-US gold without breaking the bank, it's an affordable choice.

I didn't realize until a short time ago that there really weren't many foreign counterparts to the size of our Double Eagle coin, nearly 1 full ounce of gold.

Most other countries produced coins closer to Quarter or Half Eagles.  Even Eagle-size was rare.  Not aware of any regularly-produced foreign coin that approximated 1 full ounce of gold.

Recent Pricing Observation.....I notice alot more Saints on GC going without bids.  The opening reserve or minimum bid is too high.  I'd say by 10-20% in some cases, and that's BEFORE the GC commission gets tacked on.  I also see lots of CAC and "+" coins going too high because the expectation that they will be more valuable with a 1-grade increment is NOT being accepted by potential buyers who feel (probably correctly) that most coins eligible for an upgrade worth thousands of dollars have already been tried (and failed),.

A 1928 MS-66+ got no bids at $4,700....an MS-67 1928 Saint got no bids at $15,000 (way high, IMO)....a 1927 MS-66+ no bids at $4,250...a 1924 MS-66 Saint no bids at $3,400.

I'd say the opening reserves are about 10% too high and that's before the GC fee gets added on.

On 7/18/2023 at 1:00 PM, RWB said:

Yes. 1 for gold and 1 for the cent, These ended up on the DE and E, with the E rev from the inaugural medal SG designed.

I guess either ASG's notoriety or the need to escape decades of lousy coinage designs led the Mint to up the ante, huh ?

On 7/17/2023 at 2:00 PM, VKurtB said:

It’s just sick to have a “no cash” rule at a convention about cash. But it is the trend. It prevents employee theft.  ANA Phoenix was the same. 

How does it prevent theft ?

On 7/9/2023 at 4:52 PM, RWB said:

Worms are OK. The one's we don't set free, we can take fishin'.

Not according to Ralph Kramden......

ASG was given $5,000 for 4 designs, right?

On 7/14/2023 at 11:00 AM, Mel_in_PNW said:

I made a bad impulse buy. I was just looking around and thought I had under bid. Anyhoo, it's mine I like it.

We ALL make bad impulse buys, so chalk it up to a learning experience.  Learn from it, and just make sure you excercise CAUTION whenever bidding more than $100 and especially 4-figures. 

On 7/16/2023 at 10:17 PM, Sandon said:

    The article in the preceding post should be read by anyone who believes that coin prices can only increase or that the current list prices for abundantly common coins such as 1881-S and 1884-O Morgan dollars in frequently encountered grades are reasonable and not likely to decline.

Definitely in the short-term, of course ! 

I do think that 3 years into the TPGs is alot different in terms of what we can expect in terms of increased population numbers -- in total or in high grades -- than 36 years after their formation. 

At least that's what logic would dictate. 

WC, CK....I saw this article when going through my archives.  It's about the Coin Bubble of 1989-90 by Burton Blumert, a bigtime Morgan and silver dealer back in the day.

Anyway, it mentions the 1960 Small Cents, the 1950-D Nickel, and "Low-Pop" coins and High-Grade Generics.  Thought it might be of interest.

____________________________________

The Market Crash of ‘90

By Burton S. Blumert

I bring you very bad news about the rare coin investment market. Put away your daggers, please, as the only justification for killing the messenger is that he enjoys his mission. I submit this report with heavy heart.

As I write this, in late October 1990, most investment rare coins, particularly those that have been certified, have fallen 40-60 percent in value during the past 60 days. This is not a bear market, it is a debacle. And there is no question that plastic encased coins, notably Professional Coin Grading Service coins, have been the vehicle for the disaster.

How could a concept as sound as an independent coin grading service, which gave such promise for the rare coin industry, lead us to such a state? In 1986, when PCGS was launched, many felt that there was a desperate need for a third-party grading service. The rare coin investment market had been bedeviled by crooks, con men and, as to the grading of coins, plain old ignorance. PCGS had great success almost from the first day.

Dealers, investors and potential investors were easily persuaded that coin certification would eliminate uncertainty about coin quality and authenticity and that greater liquidity would follow. And that’s what happened! Crooked direct mail and telemarketing firms found that their victims for “whizzed” or counterfeit coins had disappeared. Coin companies that certified their own coins lost credibility.

But in retrospect, the damage done by the crooks that PCGS put out of business was nickel-and-dime as compared with monumental losses to come.

By 1988, PCGS had become a way of life for the industry. The Numismatic Guaranty Corporation joined the fray in 1987 and provided solid competition. Standards improved and advanced technology led to the ultimate dream, the ability to sell a coin automatically, sight-unseen.

In case you’re not aware of how “high-tech” the industry had become, here’s a brief description of how one of the sight-unseen certified coin electronic networks functioned: You, the investor, brought your MS-66 PCGS 1881-S Moran dollar to Dealer A. As an authorized dealer in the network, he simply punched up some keys on his computer and instantly produced bid prices for your coin. Not only was the highest bidder located, but we also learned how many coins that bidder would purchase.

Upon your instruction, Dealer A electronically “hit” the high bid and presto, your coin was sold, sight-unseen. Dealer A got some pre-arranged commission and the deal was done. If Dealer A was not part of the network, he simply contacted Dealer B who was authorized and the transaction was done through him.

The dream had become a reality. Armed with dazzling computer software, the brilliant coin entrepreneurs were confident that they would soon have Wall Street begging for part of the rare coin action.

Many dealers, especially the younger ones, fervently believed that the investor should buy only certified coins. A “raw”, uncertified coin was held in contempt unless it was deemed worthy of being submitted for “slabbing.” Held in greater contempt were the dealers who criticized some aspects of the certification process or who had grave concerns about the whole concept. In 1986, in an article titled “MS-65 Common-Date Tulipmania” I wrote:

"It is not that the salesmen (of certified coins) necessarily lack integrity. In market bubbles, the sellers get caught up in the craze as much as the buyers. Look at the $34,000 paid for an 1878-S common-date Morgan dollar at a recent southern California auction! But, dealer enthusiasm, true belief and slick advertising can be as dangerous to the unwary consumer as outright fraud."

Upon reading my article, a young coin journalist suggested that I was a dinosaur and surely suffered from “old-timers disease.”

Through 1988, 1989 and much of 1990, PCGS was certifying thousands of coins per week and NGC was not far behind. New graders were thrown into the trenches to ease the backlog.  Although occasionally sputtering, the electronic sight-unseen market was functioning and coins were selling like tulips, until…

In early October of this year, the rare coin market fell out of bed, especially generic, certified coins. Dealers could not sustain their bids as sell orders flooded in. Resources were stretched thin. Terms for payment were extended to as long as 30 days. Bidders began to find reasons why they could not post their bids on a given day. Dealers who had borrowed heavily against their investor found themselves under tremendous pressure. Finally, the sell orders overwhelmed the dealers and the system ground to a halt. In the 1986 “Tulipmania” article I wrote:

“The MS-65 cheerleaders contend that they are providing investor liquidity through repurchase of these coins. No matter how well intentioned, this small group of dealers could never withstand a selling wave, whether the coins are encased in plastic bricks or not. And it has always been so. Witness the bursting of the South Seas Bubble, the collapse of the tulip craze and the disastrous Ponzi-style real estate and stock pyramids. In our own industry, we need only look at the fall of the 1960 small-date cents and 1950-D Jefferson nickels.”

At this writing, the two electronic coin trading networks are feverishly trying to develop a system which will protect the bidders from being inundated with material they cannot buy. At the same time they are seeking some way to prevent sinking bid prices in one coin series after another. Some dealers have given up. Others have lost their inventory to the bank (more about the bank later) as coin values sank below loan levels. Every dealer has suffered significant losses and the domino effect of dealer failure is a constant specter as rumors abound about this or that dealer’s solvency.

Not only have rare coin values collapsed, even worse, the electronic sight-unseen market mechanisms are virtually non-existent.

Why is this market collapse different from any other?

The certified coin was so darned saleable that its success astonished and overwhelmed the industry. One respected trade source estimates sales of certified coins at well over $2 billion. Since high-grade generic and low-population coins comprised much of this volume, it is not surprising that the collapse of October 1990 is of record proportions.

At whom do we point the finger of blame?

The certified coin liberated the promoter from his old constraints. No longer need he scour the coin shows and auctions for legitimate numismatic material. No more negotiating with the Bulgarian Mint to produce next year’s super-low mintage proof set. No further need to search bags of U.S. coins for the elusive triple struck 1991 horizontal mint mark. The promoter was free at last. Could the telemarketer be far behind?

Consider how potent the telemarketer had now become. Often he represented a “well-known firm” or one with an important sounding name. Never before had he such a prestigious product as a PCGS or NGC certified coin. Add to that the knock-out punch of offering the unwary a “low-population” coin.

The PCGS Population Report is issued monthly and is a compilation of the grades of all coins certified. It’s very useful and proved to be a most powerful selling tool.  What follows is an accurate re-creation of a telephone sales pitch made to an 82 year old victim. All names are fictitious.

“Hello Mr. Jones… do you remember me? I’m Robert Highpower with the Federal American National Rarest Coin Company – I’m the fellow who sold you the MS-65 Saint-Gaudens in February. I’m calling to give you a report on the rare coin market. It’s terrific! You’re still losing on the platinum Swiss coins you bought in 1988, but our research department is suggesting trading all bullion items for rare coins.

“And speaking of rare coins, I have something so special that I can’t believe it is available. This 1890 $2.50 gold Liberty PCGS MS-65 is a one-of-a-kind, finest graded specimen as shown in the PCGS Population Report, September 1990 issue. Compared to other numismatic rarities with populations of five or less that sell for six figures, the 1890 $2.50 Liberty is a steal at $18,000.”

Mr. Jones found the pitch irresistible. Four experienced coin dealers examined the coin at my office last month. All saw it as MS-64. Their highest estimate of value was $2,100. The customer tried his best to get a refund or trade for bullion type material. He was willing to take a $5,000 loss and although he was a regular customer of this famous company, no relief was forthcoming. And I know why.

When the complete history of the Great Coin Collapse of October 1990 is written, I suspect the low-population coin will be revealed as the biggest culprit.

There were many experienced coin professionals who knew that the bubble would ultimately bust on the high-grade generic coins, but I don’t recall anybody warning that the low-population coin would be the instrument of such devastation.

In my Tulipmania article I criticized the creation of a new “rare” common coin. Now we have the “rare” low-population coin with no history of numismatic scarcity or desirability. I fear the market will ultimately speak to the low-population coin and it will say, “Yes, you may be a certified one-of-a-kind or finest known, but who cares?”

Now back to the finger of blame. PCGS may be guilty of certain deficiencies, but it shouldn’t have the market collapse laid entirely upon its doorstep. I suppose that the excesses of the promoters and the telemarketers could be blamed, but that’s like blaming the vulture for its bad eating habits.

In the realm of human activity there is often the unintended consequence of an action. Nobody could have predicted exactly where the creation of PCGS would lead. Maybe the older, experienced dealers should have recognized the dangers and shown more leadership by exposing the madness. Maybe they should have spoken out. If they had, however, I’m not sure anybody would have listened.

Is the market collapse over?

I don’t think so. We may see some rallies as the dealers pour all their energies and what’s left of their resources into saving the electronic trading networks. The joker in the deck is the bank in southern California that holds the certified coins as collateral against loans. I was told by a major dealer that he saw a computer printout as thick as the Manhattan phone book listing the coin inventory the bank held.

One day, if the certified rare coin market does not rebound, the bank will be forces to liquidate these coins. Dealers I have talked with about this shudder at the prospect.

What do you do with the certified coins?

I hope that your rare coin portfolio has few low-population, high-grade generics, and that you hold predominantly real, traditional rare coins. It is not apocryphal, however, that when the police raid the brothel, the piano player is arrested, too. So it is in a market collapse – the good stuff drops along with everything else.

I don’t think this is the time to sell any rare coins. But if there is any sort of rally in the high-grade generic market, run, don’t walk to your dealer’s office and dump them. If you are buried in low-population, expensive coin, talk to the dealer who sold it to you. Plead poverty or insanity, or say your spouse ordered you to sell. Suggest he trade it for Krugerrands or a traditional rare coin, anything to get you out as whole as possible.

If you are a collector, start snooping around for bargains. You just might be able to locate that proof Trade dollar at a decent price. As dealers face mounting financial pressure, they will be force to offer genuine values.

If you are an investor, wait a bit before you jump back in. And before you consider buying a rare coin again, give it the Infamous Blumert Test: Check the coin you are considering in a 10-year-old copy of A Guide Book Of United States Coins. If there is no evidence that the coin was rare 10 years earlier, tell the guy you can’t use his coin.

If the coin you are considering passes the Blumert Test, but your own grading skills are uncertain, stick to PCGS or NGC certified coins. If the item is expensive, get a third-party expert to confirm the grading. Remember, you’re buying a coin, not plastic.

There’s an old Wall Street adage: “Don’t buy until the blood is in the street.” Well, the blood is in the street, so you better make sure it’s not yours.

Congrats, thanks for all your informative posts, thanks for the interesting NARA letters you find, and thanks for making the SAINT-GAUDENS DE Thread the best one by far on any forum I've visited with a wealth of information for any Saint collectors out there (hopefully more show up !!  ).  

On 7/14/2023 at 1:20 PM, VKurtB said:

Okay, I have the 1984 and the 1994, and the only one in between those is the 1989. (Face year) The highest grade they even SHOW on the Saint is MS-60. It’s at $750.00. The 1880-S Morgan in MS-65 is at $500.00. The LOWEST Unc. AGE was $425.00. Remember, only 60 and 65 grades existed then among MS.

After 1986/87...then you had all different number grades.  So any Red Book after 1987 should have more specificity though they may have continued the old format for a while (I have the 1970 Red Book besides the 2014 edition.

On 7/14/2023 at 6:12 AM, J P M said:

Sometimes the price guide in the red book does not change every year. With that in mind I do not think it would help you out much. 

It was really just a curiosity hunt.  Nothing major. 

On 7/13/2023 at 5:31 PM, EagleRJO said:

Just curious why some historical pricing would be so important.

Because prices took off H1 1989 and then plunged, it would be interesting to see what they used for pricing that year.  Do they get prices at a fixed point like March or June or September or even December ?

I was just curious, because the volatility in 1989 and 1990 was off-the-charts.

On 7/12/2023 at 11:08 PM, VKurtB said:

No, MANY MANY coins taken “right off the press” can be as low as a 64 or even worse. The coin must be perfect; the planchet must be perfect; the die must be perfect; the strike must be perfect. THEN AND ONLY THEN are we in 70 country.

Stop the presses !!!  I agree with Kurt. 

On 7/13/2023 at 1:10 PM, Jason Abshier said:

You are correct the market crashed right around when TPG was taking off with plastic slab technology probably why they may have seen a major spike in prices but dealers couldn’t get enough of them to supply demands … why such a sudden demand ? I don’t know maybe another member on here who experienced buy/selling in that market at the time can shed light on it 

If you are talking about the 1989 Coin Bubble bursting, that I do know. 

Prices simply got nuts for anything that was considered a generic or liquid coin that might be traded on the electronic dealer networks and/or bought by the coming Wall Street investment funds.  Saints and Morgans, just to use some examples, pretty much tripled with no increase in gold or silver's price from 1986-89.

When it became apparent that the $$$ wouldn't be coming in for thousands of the coins -- I think at the May/June Central States Coin Show, to be exact -- prices collapsed.  If Saints traded at the premium to gold today that they did then, an MS-65 1924 Saint would cost $12-$15,000 !!!! 

On 7/13/2023 at 12:27 PM, Jason Abshier said:

It was an interesting market for sure , they shared their glory in market history as for folks who shelled out the high dollars for them back then ? OUCH!!! 

I'm not sure why commemoratives did so well for a decade.  Partly $$$ flowed out of other stuff and I suspect the supply of commemoratives were relatively low.  The TPGs maybe drove pricing, too.  Maybe folks thought like gold and silver and coins made of those metals that went up 10-20 fold, that commemoratives would also go up 10-20 fold.  Probably were infomercials that I never saw or forgot about, too.

On 7/13/2023 at 10:25 AM, Jason Abshier said:

For real ? … it been around for long time … mostly European coin dealers overseas , it’s a nice place to get the “hard to find stuff” in world coins …. You have look it up yourself , however mostly 90% of the stuff on there is RAW ,RAW

No, I never heard about it and as someone who is not into world or foreign coins, I guess I wouldn't come into contact with it.  I only started using HA and GC 4 years or so ago, after a decade of Ebay, Mint, and LCS purchases.

Does the site guarantee authenticity or offer refunds ?  If it's been around a long time, they should stand behind their merchandise and/or dealer network.

On 7/13/2023 at 12:13 PM, Jason Abshier said:

Commemorative classic half dollars was a fine example of hostile market in early to mid 80’s …. Tons and tons of money was spent and wasted on these “red-hot” coins to watch the market all sudden collapse and sudden huge price drops ! Today these coins can be easily purchased and assemble in a collection 95% of them are in affordable price range from grade MS63-MS66 

I believe commemoratives were the only coins to go up in the 1980's...everything else was dragged down from the 1980 Bubble in coins and PMs.

This false belief in commemoratives helped lead them higher and higher and when they finally got creamed after the 1989 Coin Bubble, they've never come close to eclipsing their old highs.

On 7/13/2023 at 11:46 AM, VKurtB said:

The ANA's Exhibit Judging Criteria do NOT count "condition rarity" as rare at all. Rarity means total number of pieces available, condition be damned. There is a judging criteria for gaudy grades on mundane issues: it's called (gasp!) Condition. Rarity is judged as if all known pieces were of the same condition. Unique to 9 known gets you a 10 in rarity, 10-99 gets you a 9. 100-999 gets you an 8, etc. The rarest piece in the exhibit controls that score. I have at least 6 "Top Pop" coins, but while they might get (and should) get gaudy Condition scores, at least 4 of them are worth next to nothing in Rarity. They are classic condition rarities. Exhibiting AIN'T LIKE REGISTRY SETS!!!!!

I understand this perspective, but if the Total Pops were not larger with different grades....our hobby would be as popular as art collecting. 

Just as an aside since it indirectly impacts coins and collectibles....I saw something on a morning show today that some digital Ape something or other that Justin Bieber bought for $1.3 MM at the height of the NFT craze was today worth like $50,000, down 95% or so.

So when a coin you like is up an extra $50 or $200 in a few weeks or months, put that in perspective ! 

I never heard of ma-shop.

In some of the photos above, the coin looks totally fake (you didn't say if it wasn't gold or was gold but just not an authentic numismatic piece).

This is another reason to either buy certified coins and/or buy only from sellers you know when dealing with raw coins, especially if you aren't an expert.  When dealing with niche coins, more likely to see frauds than in common coins where there are plenty of alternative sellers.

On 7/12/2023 at 8:57 PM, J P M said:

64 to 65 is $10 to $20 but from 65 to 66 can be half of the price more.

So not big $$$ in absolute terms, maybe another $20 you pay for the 66's ?  But I'll bet if you went to MS-67 then you'd have to pay 3-5x as much for many coins, right ?

On 7/12/2023 at 8:57 PM, J P M said:

I see bidding prices going way over the real value of the coin. I think there are a lot of new collectors after Covid pushing prices up and they don't really know what they are buying they just want to buy coins and spending money does not factor in to play.  

The PCGS 3000 Index bottomed in early-2020 with Covid.  Since then, it's been a bull market in coins.  However, NFTs and the bubble in sports card prices and other stuff that went to Nutso Land in 2020-22 have receeded as free $$$ from the government and higher interest rates have pinched buyers.

Should be interesting if the rate of increase for U.S. coins including yours starts to slow and maybe even decline.