GoldFinger1969

On 7/12/2023 at 8:56 PM, cladking said:

Oh sure I have some great rarities that should be appreciated some day but that day is not now.  I'm going to just have to leave my heirs a few safety deposit boxes full of grossly undervalued Gems.  

You make some good points, and I like your enthusiasm ....but when you are insistent that your coins are "grossly" undervalued and deserve much higher prices....unless you can point to specific anomalies that will reverse over time or something that will cause a surge of demand down the line...I'm not sure you are standing on solid ground.

Now...I think my Saints are undervalued because I believe within the next 10 years that gold will go to at least $3,000 an ounce and maybe even $5,000.  So it will drag up commons and semi-scarce coins that are MS-65 and MS-66.  So maybe I will double or triple my money (or more) if my gold prediction comes to fruition.

However...if gold is pretty much stuck around $2,000 give-or-take....unless we get lots of domestic Saint buyers who push up the premiums on those coins relative to the gold content, then maybe my coins will be a bit lower, the same, or maybe 20-25% (or less) higher in price.

Ask yourself if your scenarios for higher prices do NOT materialize, what happens to their prices.  It quantifies the downside.

On 7/12/2023 at 8:43 PM, World Colonial said:

My inference is that the internet accounts for much of what I wrote in my earlier posts. This is what makes most coins so much easier to buy versus the past.  Collectors mostly don't like to collect coins or series with abnormally low availability, but they also often want something of a challenge which is where specialization and collecting by grade label comes in.

I used to like astronomy and coins when I was young.  I lost interest in astronomy because I could never find anything in the skies....and I lost interest in coins because I wasn't properly exposed and didn't know others who shared my interest, couldn't attend coin shows, no local coin shop, etc.

Today, I'm bigtime into astronomy because the Internet and computerized go-to scopes have made pursuing the hobby super-easy.  Ditto for gathering knowledge about coins and actually being able to buy quality and NOT worry (for the most part) about getting stuck with a lemon.

On 7/12/2023 at 7:22 PM, zadok said:

..i basically agree with WC there r no rare 20th century regular issue coinage... true, coins in certain grades in their particular series may well be scarce n in a few instances rare (5 or less known) but for the most part virtually all 20th century mintages far exceed the potential number of collectors...now, attractive is in the eyes of the beholder n can not be quantified....

1913 Liberty Nickel....1927-D Saint.....must be others with <20 coins in total population, right ?

On 7/12/2023 at 6:37 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, that's how US collectors in the TPG era view it. I'm not trying to convince anyone not to buy any coin they want to buy.  I'm stating that US collecting is the worst at exaggerating the significance of what most collectors can afford or collect and it's accurate. There is no absolute definition of rarity or scarcity.  It can only be measured relatively. Concurrently, under US criteria, somewhere in the vicinity of at least 95% of all coins ever made (hundreds of thousands) are "rare" in some TPG eligible grade.  Everything but a 70 and a low percentage where a slightly lower grade has "many".  For US practiced specializations, probably in the vicinity of 98%, at least.

But how many coins in the U.S. or globally had virtually ALL of their mintage destroyed and not existing today ?  Probably very few...maybe limited mintage coins and/or those that were not melted down if not made of gold or silver, which most coins were made out of probably most of the time.

I get what you are saying about "rare" and "scarce" but I think it's a matter of semantics.  The 1927-D Saint is a rare coin, only about 7-13 coins are known to survive.  But Saints in the aggregate are NOT scarce so should the 1927-D be called "rare" or "scarce" ?  How about the 1924 Saint....in MS-68 condition ?

Type of coin....year struck...Mint....condition....the more qualifiers or filters you add, the more "rare" something becomes potentially.

On 7/12/2023 at 8:13 PM, J P M said:

So  I raised my standards for my collection of nickels to MS66 and up. 

On average, how much more are you paying for 66's vs. 65/64's ?

On 7/12/2023 at 8:13 PM, J P M said:

I also search for very low prices I try to only pay 30% of the high market suggested retail of NGC or PCGS and that can make my search  a bit tougher. I think all coins are hyped up in price and I may never send a coin in to be graded. I like my raw coins just fine. But in the end all of my graded nickels I have purchased so far are well below the cost of putting them in the holders. Oh and one more thing I forgot to say. I like collecting coins.

What's happened to your targeted coin prices over the last few years and last few decades ?  And congrats on just liking coins and sticking to your guns and enjoying yourself -- I salute you ! 

I think all of us are arguing about 2 sides of the coin....pun intended. 

We can all agree that specialization/marketing/market grading have all created or contributed to a "false scarcity" for certain coins....which combined with the Internet and registry lists....and online auctions....and CAC.....have raised prices in the aggregate and exponentially higher in the top grades. 

But I don't think with the TPG's creation and the Internet this could have been avoided.  The LACK of information 40 years ago and the LACK of communication on a daily basis with fellow coin collectors left a vacuum where downside FRAUD then (overselling junk) has today been replaced with UPSIDE chasing of coins based on specialization and TPG label marketing and the like.  Downside fraud has been reduced...at the cost of creating (exaggerated) pricing to the upside.

Think about it.  There is more communication in a day now on chat boards, social media, the Internet, email...on coins...than than there was 40 years ago in a month, unless there was a big coin show that month .  That leads to higher volumes of activity, knowledge, bidding, and collecting interest than there was 40-50 years ago even though the demands on our time have increased such that outdoor sports and indoor hobbies no longer occupy most of our time as kids/teenagers/young adults like we spent in the 1950's and 1960's.

On 7/12/2023 at 12:05 PM, VKurtB said:

I save many years.

Can you tell me what price they have for an MS-65 1924 Saint and/or 1880-S MS-65 Morgan ?  2 generic coins widely available....should indicate when they priced them.

On 7/11/2023 at 7:44 PM, World Colonial said:

I have said that the vast majority of US coins dated 1933 and later should be worth no more than the TPG fee or nominal premiums to silver spot.  That's because the coins are both very common and have a (very) low preference.  I state this because I infer the supply is higher or much higher than you believe.

Don't you believe that in high grades, even "common" coins should command a premium ?  The supply in that GRADE is certainly less than a grade 2 or 3 increments lower, right ?   JPM's nickel example from above.

On 7/11/2023 at 4:29 PM, VKurtB said:

Remember, relatively speaking, “nobody” cared about silver dollars up though the 1960’s and a little beyond. They traded at face, and people SPENT THEM TO GET RID OF THEM. (Northeastern USA). They were literally the Sacagawea dollars of their time.

Well, in the 1960's folks thought coins would always have metal/silver in them....we were on the gold standard.....and dollar and inflation problems were a decade away.

On 7/11/2023 at 3:52 PM, VKurtB said:

Commoditization, just like ANY fad in coins, simply HAD TO crash. I knew it. Many friends did not. Some literally hanged themselves. They bet HARD on a one-way trip to the stratosphere. You have to grasp the sheer enormity of the “in canvas bags for decades” supply. You want to talk about hoards? Now THOSE were HOARDS!! They’re STILL a supply overhang on the Morgan market. 

I'm going to guess that if the submission times weren't long by 1993 (the time of the article I cited).....which was 6-7 years after the start-up of both PCGS and NGC....that maybe lots of collectors/dealers were "fooled" into thinking there was no big rush coming.  That's the only thing I can think of.

If I was a dealer/collector back then....and the turnaround time on submitting to a TPG in 1993 was 1-2 weeks, maybe down from 1-2 months or whatever it was when the TPGs were brand new and there was a "rush" to submit....I would think that there was not a huge supply a coming.

But...in the immortal words of George Jefferson ("Jefferson Cleaners.....7 convenient locations....1 near you !!" ).....I could be wrong. 

Does anybody have a copy of the 1989 and/or 1990 Red Books ?

I was wondering what they used as the prices for those books, given the bubble pricing that existed until May 1989.  The date for each is hugely important.

On 7/11/2023 at 3:39 PM, World Colonial said:

Depends what coins you are talking about.

Any of the popularly-traded Small Denomination US coins post-1900 and certainly post-1930.  And also MSDs and gold coins, including Saints.  I don't know what the population numbers were for some Saints in the early-1990's (I have prices but not pops) but they had to have been much lower than today, even if we didn't see the multiple increase we saw for MSDs.

On 7/11/2023 at 3:39 PM, World Colonial said:

No, you're not going to see a 30-fold increase in Morgan dollar populations but for some dates, still potentially more outside of a holder than in one. For lower priced 20th century US coinage other than Morgan, and Peace dollars + US classic gold, there is a huge multiple not in a holder versus in one most of the time. Also true for the lopsided proportion of world coinage.

Raws can be significant in quantity, I wonder about quality, though.  Good points, WC. 

WC, Kurt, anybody else ....you guys were active back 30 years ago, I wasn't.  Was anybody saying that the then-prices for the coins -- even AFTER the bubble burst and they remained elevated -- was based on population numbers that were bound to explode to the upside and thus would have to fall further ?  

They had to know that in the examples I cited they wouldn't be adding 2 or 3 or 5 coins a year to the grade....they'd be adding HUNDREDS every year if not more.  That's why 30 year later, today, we have totals up 10 or 20 or 30 fold.

On 7/11/2023 at 3:16 PM, World Colonial said:

Me either.  I've stated here before that the most common dates are actually bullion coins, even in a grade like MS-65.  In "high" quality, no way anywhere near enough actual collectors for the supply.  Hundreds of thousands to over 1MM for many dates. With .7236oz of silver, maybe $50 tops and only that due to the ridiculous premiums on ASEs now.

I agree.  But at MS-67 and MS-67+ or MS-68, I do think the populations have definitely NOT shown the increase that you see at lower grades, meaning price weakness should be LESS at the higher grades.

I don't know why MS-65 coins -- to use one popular grade with plenty of coins -- traded up at such a premium.  They must have thought that there were many fewer coins out there....OR...it would take a long time for the TPGs to get them and certify them.

On 7/11/2023 at 3:12 PM, World Colonial said:

Not really, considering the size of the GSA hoard. Also, the vast majority of US coins from the late 19th century forward are either common or very common, even in grades close to at this level.  Not mostly common compared to these Morgan dollars but still common.

I meant it was astounding that the numbers were taken as Gospel 30 years ago.  They clearly were way off when you have that kind of increase over the years.

Now....I would be SHOCKED if we saw any kind of multiple-fold increase in those population numbers in 30 years from today.  In fact, I believe the rate of change for most coins HAS slowed....population additions have slowed even with resubmissions, gradeflation, etc.

On 7/11/2023 at 3:10 PM, VKurtB said:

There’s nothing hard to understand here. In the past, there were quite a few dates of Morgan dollars that were (correctly) deemed not worthy of being graded. As time and marketing have marched on, there’s no longer such a thing. If it’s a Morgan, any piece of common garbage ends up in plastic. I still don’t get why. Never will. 

I think with a few thousand population in the early-1990's you could make a case for a "common" Morgan selling for a few hundred dollars, maybe even low-4 figures.  Remember, you have TENS of thousands of Morgan collectors (maybe more) so if your population is only a few hundred or a few thousand, price is going to have to spike.  OTOH, with TENS of thousands -- and those above are just NGC Populations -- demand gets satiated.

Remember, we have 3 levels of collectors:  registry players (who want the best and many will pay up).....type and serious collectors (who are more price sensitive with specific coins or in the aggregate)...and the investment group (folks who pay minimally for numismatic premium and are more into the bullion itself).

How many of each determines how high pricing can go for select coins.

On 7/11/2023 at 10:14 AM, World Colonial said:

Quite confident what you are describing was the result of a communication limitation which has since been eliminated.  Prior to "mature" TPG population reports and the internet, the vast majority of US collectors presumably badly underestimated survival (rates), including in better quality. 

Absolutely.  The early population reports showed big increases.  Folks who bought coins that they thought was less than 10 coins in a certain condition would find out that there was 30-50 a few years later.

Here's some of the article -- from 1993 -- and then I have the updated population numbers for NGC:

"Let’s first consider the case of the 1880-S silver dollar. This is what is known as a “common-date” Morgan dollar–one that not only had a relatively high mintage (8.9 million), but also has a high surviving population in mint condition. As of Jan. 1 of this year (1993), NGC had graded 3,442 examples of this coin as MS-65 and 622 as MS-66.

The figures are even higher for the 1881-S Morgan dollar: As of Jan. 1, NGC had graded 5,459 examples of this coin as MS-65 and 767 as MS-66. And PCGS has certified even more coins of both dates and both grade levels.  

The price declines of common-date Morgan dollars have been every bit as dramatic for MS-66 and MS-67 specimens as they have for MS-65 pieces. In MS-66, the price has plunged from $1,400 to $200, and in MS-67 the drop has been from $3,950 to $680."  

Now.....we have just under 39,000 1880-S's in MS-65 and just under 14,000 for MS-66, up 12-fold and 20-fold, respectively in 30 years !!!   

For the 1881-S, just under 59,000 in MS-65 and just under 20,000 for MS-66.......10-fold and 25-fold increases in 30 years !!!   

These numbers to me are ASTOUNDING even taking into account that more coins were bound to come out over time !!!!  

On 7/9/2023 at 10:23 AM, Sandon said:

   The OP states that his coin is NOT copper, so I assume that it is just a common, zinc coated steel 1943 cent, worth less than a dollar unless in uncirculated condition. I assume that he had heard of the extremely rare 1943 cents struck on leftover bronze blanks and wanted to know if they are valuable. 

While we're at it, I got some change from one of those snack/chocolate bar vending machines, and I am SURE that my change contained a 1913 Liberty Nickel.  I didn't look super-closely but as I emptied my pockets I'm pretty sure I saw "1913" and Lady Liberty.  I may need help getting it certified as I've never utilized the TPGs before, let me know if you or anybody else here might be able to help. 

Also need a big suitcase -- like the one Ed Norton got for Ralph Kramden to handle the $40,000,000 he was gonna inherit -- for after the auction. 

On 7/10/2023 at 7:20 PM, J P M said:

Perhaps I should have said it different. Most MS 67 coins are hard to find at auction cheap, the price jump from 66 to 67 is substantial. Now except for SP and PR  MS 68, 69 and 70 are even worst or nonexistent 

68 must be super-expensive or maybe even MS-67+ FS CAC ?

On 7/10/2023 at 7:02 PM, World Colonial said:

See my prior post.  The last MS 67 FS listed in Coin Facts sold for $360.  67+ FS, $1100+. There are going to be some duplicates in the data but even the PCGS raw numbers alone aren't low for a coin in a specific grade for a "grade rarity".  That's 54 at PCGS now. NGC has graded 1888 as a 67 and 130 more as a 67+.  5570 and 380 for these two grades w/out FS.

Interesting...maybe a 68 today is equal to a 67 years ago ?

When you combine raw hoards hitting the TPGs plus gradeflation and regradings, you can have a lethal combination that increases low-pops a ton.

On 7/10/2023 at 7:02 PM, World Colonial said:

See my prior post.  The last MS 67 FS listed in Coin Facts sold for $360.  67+ FS, $1100+. There are going to be some duplicates in the data but even the PCGS raw numbers alone aren't low for a coin in a specific grade for a "grade rarity".  That's 54 at PCGS now. NGC has graded 1888 as a 67 and 130 more as a 67+.  5570 and 380 for these two grades w/out FS.

It's just hard to belive that without any major hoards being found that coins today that sell for a few hundred dollars were once valued in the thousands, maybe even low-5 figures.

Wow........

On 7/10/2023 at 6:56 PM, World Colonial said:

The only thing remarkable about the price history of this coin is that it ever sold for $20 per roll.  It's only a matter of degree versus the 1950-D nickel.  There are potentially millions of CH BU or better of these cents still left.  The opportunity cost of owning it now and recently is immaterial.

It appears that a bunch of small denomination regularly issued U.S. coins were subject to real or imagined scarcity and/or Treasury Hunt pricing for a while.  The 1950-D Nickel and now the 1960-D "Small Date" Penny seem to be ones mentioned frequently here.  If you have any articles on these that discuss their story, please post links.  Otherwise, I will hit my Red Book and also Google and try and get up to speed on their story (I am already familiar with the 1903/4-O MSD's once the Treasury released silver dollars in the early-1960's).

Any other regularly issued U.S. coins that have this speculative history attached to them in the last 60-100 years ?

On 7/10/2023 at 6:15 PM, J P M said:

MS 67 and up are hard coins to find and when you do they are more money. The NGC value if even close for the MS66 1950D is $85 then it jumps to $800 just to give ya some idea..

But that's way down from the $17,000 price and even if that had special characteristics and was a bubble peak price on Heritage.....an MS-67 FS probably sold for a few thousand dollars minimum, right ?  So....$800 or a bit higher today is still a BIG DROP from those low-pop, bubble days. 

On 7/9/2023 at 11:50 AM, RWB said:

Sad.   Stupid and sad.   Pathetic, stupid and sad.   Disappointing, pathetic, stupid and sad.

My one caveat: if it attracts newcomers or part-timers to become more active in the hobby and spurs them onto serious numismatic and coin collecting endeavors.

On 7/10/2023 at 11:45 AM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

The cost of the W mint quarter from 2019 and 2020 has declined significantly from when they were first released.

What type of decline ware we talking about ?

Also, new releases sometimes have problems meeting initial demand but then months later the problem is resolved.  That's more of a supply issue.

The coin examples I gave above were all trading for a long time before they ran up.  Their price spikes were definitely DEMAND related.