Official Saint-Gaudens/Gold Coin Price Thread 2 2

[EagleRJO]

On 10/23/2022 at 1:02 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Common dates MS-62's should sell right at spot bullion

I think we discussed this in the thread I started about $5 gold half eagles a while ago, but in all the years I have tracked and invested in gold bullion I have never seen them being sold around spot. Only bullion bars seem to go for a little above spot, and modern gold bullion coins (Eagles, Krugerrands, etc.) a little above that.

But if there are any available around spot presently about $1,650 to $1,700 from a reputable dealer or auction house please let me know because I have been looking. 😉

Edited October 23, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Henri Charriere]

@EagleRJO:

You want 'em at spot?  No problem.  Wait awhile till they drop precipitously [in the near future] then you can have all you want at today's [then-outdated] spot price.      

[EagleRJO]

On 10/23/2022 at 8:42 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

@EagleRJO:

You want 'em at spot?  No problem.  Wait awhile till they drop precipitously [in the near future] then you can have all you want at today's [then-outdated] spot price.      

While I left my crystal ball at home, I wouldn't be so sure of that. With domestic energy production stomped on and inflationary handouts/spending galore continuing to mess things up, the Fed is going to be left with trying to grapple with inflation using just rate hikes alone which the market hates. I just don't see the current admin course correcting. And they say they don't watch or seem to care about the markets.

So, I think that precipitous drop will be in the market (which has as a result of things already been taking a general beating lately), with real estate also taking it on the chin because of high rates. And then what will people do with all that cash taken out of the market? Leave it in savings accounts or short-term bonds losing money? Or take a shot at something else that is tangible and can't just go poof and disappear like crypto can in a heartbeat?

Only time is the arbiter of the future. Well, that or the Great Carnac, but I think he's booked through January. 😉

Edited October 24, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/23/2022 at 2:34 AM, EagleRJO said:

I think we discussed this in the thread I started about $5 gold half eagles a while ago, but in all the years I have tracked and invested in gold bullion I have never seen them being sold around spot. Only bullion bars seem to go for a little above spot, and modern gold bullion coins (Eagles, Krugerrands, etc.) a little above that.But if there are any available around spot presently about $1,650 to $1,700 from a reputable dealer or auction house please let me know because I have been looking. 😉

Let me clarify/be more specific:  when I say sell at spot, I'm talking give or take 5%.  At least that's what I last saw at my LCS and the shows I attended in 2019-20.  I got a nice MS-63 1915-S @ FUN 2020 for the actual price of spot, maybe $20 higher...throw in the weight differential, and that's what ?  4% over spot or so I guess.

Maybe because of Covid "premiums" are higher but shouldn't be 40-50%.  Maybe 10%, tops.  That's a fair price for illiquidity.

I do believe now and pre-Covid that buying through the auction houses (HA or even GC but not sure about Ebay) was going to result in a higher price.  You pay for the convenience of buying from your desk with clicks...even for random coins that are highly available, I guess.

Edited October 23, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[EagleRJO]

All of the 3 LCS's around me have higher prices for common date Saints than Apmex. But I am keeping my eyes open and maybe a few will fall in my lap at 10% over spot or for around $1,750 to $1,800 (with a weight a little under an ounce). You never know. 

When you see them for 10% over spot let me know. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/23/2022 at 11:36 AM, EagleRJO said:

All of the 3 LCS's around me have higher prices for common date Saints than Apmex. But I am keeping my eyes open and maybe a few will fall in my lap at 10% over spot or for around $1,800 to $1,850. You never know. 

When you see them for 10% over spot let me know. 

I wonder how many bullion-types are sold on HA and GC.  I never really bothered to look since they are pretty much considered worth the price of gold.  You'd think the price wouldn't go much higher than the spot price since you can get their equivalent at any LCS or local coin show.

The only premium embedded is the value of the holder...the grade (you know it's not a counterfeit)...and maybe the particular coin's appearance.  Otherwise, there should be lots of interchangeable coins which in theory should keep the price locked to a low level above spot gold.

[GoldFinger1969]

FWIW, I never saw so many coins in my Watchlist on GC end with no bids.  Sellers are simply asking too much money. 

These coins are mostly MS-64's and 65's in commons, sometimes with CAC, but sellers are asking for about 30% over spot which when you add in the fees takes it to 40-50%.  Buyers are on strike.

I'll see what pure premiums (MS-63 and below) for commons went for, assuming they got sold.  I figure GC is more likely  to see such coins offered than HA which tends to focus on higher-end/numismatic coins rather than quasi-bullions (though there is an overlap in those definitions, for sure).

[zadok]

On 10/24/2022 at 10:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

FWIW, I never saw so many coins in my Watchlist on GC end with no bids.  Sellers are simply asking too much money. 

These coins are mostly MS-64's and 65's in commons, sometimes with CAC, but sellers are asking for about 30% over spot which when you add in the fees takes it to 40-50%.  Buyers are on strike.

I'll see what pure premiums (MS-63 and below) for commons went for, assuming they got sold.  I figure GC is more likely  to see such coins offered than HA which tends to focus on higher-end/numismatic coins rather than quasi-bullions (though there is an overlap in those definitions, for sure).

...my grandma once had a quasi-bullion but they gave her a sole insert n it went away...locally i am seeing in estate n quasi-coin auctions common date saints selling at below melt in the $1650-1750 price range in the 63-64 grades, DE  selling in the $1850-1950 range for au coins in common dates...some of the local auctions have 10% buyers premiums some dont...very few common date saints r bringing over $2000, raw versus cert coins bringing about same in this locality....

[EagleRJO]

On 10/24/2022 at 10:28 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wonder how many bullion-types are sold on HA and GC

There are quite a lot of common date lower MS Saints sold on GC and HA and all over $2,000 recently, more at HA as they have a higher BP.

Edited October 24, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/24/2022 at 12:25 PM, EagleRJO said:

There are quite a lot of common date lower MS Saints sold on GC and HA and all over $2,000 recently, more at HA as they have a higher BP.

I see a bunch of quasi-bullion coins that have bidding ending in 6 days and current prices are in the $1,400 - $1,500 range with actual bids.  Some ending in 13 days, too.

Let's see how high they push the hammer prices which are at least going to have 12% tacked on.

Edited October 25, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/24/2022 at 12:25 PM, EagleRJO said:

There are quite a lot of common date lower MS Saints sold on GC and HA and all over $2,000 recently, more at HA as they have a higher BP.

So not the hammer price, but the TOTAL cost including the 12.5% or 20% tack-ons ?

[EagleRJO]

On 10/24/2022 at 2:11 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I see a bunch of quasi-bullion coins that have bidding ending in 6 days and current prices are in the $1,400 - $1,500 range with actual bids.

If you watch the bidding on common date bullion coins at say Great Collections or eBay, like I have lately, you will see lower pre-bid numbers which shoot as you get closer to and at the last minute. Don't look at coins listed for future bids but look at recent sales. Lower MS common date Saints have recently been going for around $2,200 to $2,500, and some over $2,500, but nowhere near the numbers you are suggesting they should go for. Those are mostly PCGS coins where in part I think those sold numbers are high because of their ridiculous values which they have not adjusted yet and some ppl blindly follow.

Let me know when you find some at that 10% over spot for lower MS Saints which with the slightly lower gold content of a Saint actually should then be around $1,750 to $1,800.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, EagleRJO said:

If you watch the bidding on common date bullion coins at say Great Collections or eBay, like I have lately, you will see lower pre-bid numbers which shoot as you get closer to and at the last minute.

Yes, that's par for the course.  But let's see if they cross the $2K level as you said earlier auctions did.  A 30% premium for MS-63's and below for commons is very rich.  It's more than I paid for MS-65's pre-Covid for some popular common year Saints.

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, EagleRJO said:

Lower MS common date Saints have recently been going for around $2,200 to $2,500, and some over $2,500, but nowhere near the numbers you are suggesting they should go for. Those are mostly PCGS coins where in part I think those sold numbers are high because of their ridiculous values which they have not adjusted yet and some ppl blindly follow.

INSANITY, as Estelle Costanza once said. 

I don't think it's a PCGS Price Guide vs. NGC Price Guide.  These are common Saints with minimal or no numismatic value.  Even if you value the PCGS premium, it shouldn't matter on a common coin that will track spot gold 90% or more.  I'd definitely seek out the NGCs if PCGS coins are $200 or more richer.

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, EagleRJO said:

Let me know when you find some at that 10% over spot for lower MS Saints which with the slightly lower gold content of a Saint actually should then be around $1,750 to $1,800.

Will do...even Ebay might have some at that price because they want to get you on their mailing lists for pricier coins.

Gonna try and stop in at some LCS's and see what they are asking for common Saints. 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

Bunch of generic commons in lower-grades (MS-63 and below) sold for a total cost (including bp) of just under $2,000 on Sunday, Eagle.

Hammer prices are $75-$100 over spot gold but the convenience of buying online....the value of the holder....the grade itself....and year....are making some people comfortable paying a 15-18% premium over spot.

[Cat Bath]

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, EagleRJO said:

...Lower MS common date Saints have recently been going for around $2,200 to $2,500, and some over $2,500, but nowhere near the numbers you are suggesting they should go for....

I've noticed from the registry that there are very few upgrades amongst those of us who have been at it awhile. Gold looks like it's tanking and severely bagged-out common saints are still selling at over 2K. 

I think most of us are just shaking our heads.

Time to head over to the dark side and see what chaos, if any, is going on over there.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Cat Bath

[EagleRJO]

On 10/31/2022 at 7:15 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Bunch of generic commons in lower-grades (MS-63 and below) sold for a total cost (including bp) of just under $2,000 on Sunday, Eagle.

Yea, I have seen some of those right around $2k even with the further spot price drop. Just nuts, and I think@Cat Bathhit the nail right on the head ... well excluding crossing over to the dark side. 

I think I will just give it a break for a bit and focus on finishing the Morgan collection filling some of the more expensive holes, and then see where things are at after the winter. That is if I actually have any cash left after the Morgans and winter heating oil living in the northeast. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Henri Charriere]

Gentlemen, I sincerely wish you the best, but from my vantage point, when prices trend south----and I have nothing to back up my irresponsible theorizing----the pickings get slim.  Dealers would rather hold onto what they have then let it go at a loss.  This, of course, figures most prominently with bullion and bars. Your experience may differ.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/3/2022 at 12:51 AM, Cat Bath said:

I've noticed from the registry that there are very few upgrades amongst those of us who have been at it awhile. Gold looks like it's tanking and severely bagged-out common saints are still selling at over 2K. 

Is that the going rate at LCS and at local/regional coin shows ?

I was able to buy an MS-63 Saint for basically spot at FUN 2020.  Gold was rising then and would make a run of a few hundred more dollars to top $2,000.  So with the wind at its back, dealers were willing to sell for spot.  Today, with gold doing NOTHING for years and down lately, "weird" premiums seem to be at play, though nothing like with silver.

The quoted premiums in BARRON'S each week are higher than in the past but only by about 3%; these are for regular national bullion coins.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/3/2022 at 10:11 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

Gentlemen, I sincerely wish you the best, but from my vantage point, when prices trend south----and I have nothing to back up my irresponsible theorizing----the pickings get slim.  Dealers would rather hold onto what they have then let it go at a loss.  This, of course, figures most prominently with bullion and bars. Your experience may differ.

I can't say I've gone in regularly, but when I do goto my LCS, prices reflect market prices.  

Isn't that what a dealer SHOULD be...a guy who sells at market prices, making a small spread buying and selling, not gambling on the price itself....like a bookie doesn't wager on the actual outcome of a game ?

[Henri Charriere]

@GoldFinger1969:

I don't know.  I can only report what I've observed. Yes, a dealer should sell at market prices. My experience, however, going back to the time, I bought and physically took delivery of my first Engelhard silver 100 oz. bar was different.  I distinctly recall buying at $600. and selling a very short time later for $700. (I do not recall when, but I am aware they're north of $2,500 now.)  The point being there came a time when, perhaps like now, the market was headed south and it was impossible to find anyone (pre-internet) who had one who was willing to sell one at a depressed price.  How did they survive?  The truth? They apparently didn't. Is that still true? I don't know.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Die polishing: typo.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/3/2022 at 10:11 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

I have nothing to back up my irresponsible theorizing

Sounds like "speculation" to me! 

I did notice that both of the big boys are dropping their guide prices, with NGC at a more realistic $1,950 for common Saints now, but still over-valued imo. Savvy dealers are also lowering prices to clear stale inventory (e.g. several LCS's and larger online dealers like Apmex).

However, PCG$ still has their head stuck in the sand at over $2,500 for common Saints as well as across the board out of touch values. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/4/2022 at 4:34 AM, EagleRJO said:

Sounds like "speculation" to me! id notice that both of the big boys are dropping their guide prices, with NGC at a more realistic $1,950 for common Saints now, but still over-valued imo. Savvy dealers are also lowering prices to clear stale inventory (e.g. several LCS's and larger online dealers like Apmex).  However, PCG$ still has their head stuck in the sand at over $2,500 for common Saints as well as across the board out of touch values. 

I don't think anybody uses TPG prices except as a historical database.  And quite frankly, actual sales prices or historical prices in archive history like HA is better.  Best of all, for Saints, is RWB's DE book price matrices. 

The only thing I wonder about is if the high-prices you quote are all-in prices (including bp and/or liquidity premiums) and not just hammer prices.  As I cited above, that differential is about 15-18% right now (high).

Edited November 5, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/4/2022 at 4:34 AM, EagleRJO said:

....However, PCG$ still has their head stuck in the sand at over $2,500 for common Saints as well as across the board out of touch values. 

So how does this work? Nobody's buying their "merchandise." It sits there dead in the water. The seller is not making any money. And from what I've been reading, gold is not expected to change in the short term... so how does this work?

[EagleRJO]

On 11/4/2022 at 1:18 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't think anybody uses TPG prices

Many sellers on eBay are in fact using them (both slabbed and raw coins from my own personal experience and communicating wilth sellers), and prolly quite a few buyers on eBay and auction sites as they are mostly PCG$ slabs going for stupid prices often. NGC slabbed coins have been going for more reasonable prices.

Also, I would have been okay with a hammer price around $75 to $100 over spot with a Saint being slightly less than 1 troy ounce.

Edited November 5, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/4/2022 at 3:29 PM, EagleRJO said:

Many sellers on eBay are in fact using them (both slabbed and raw coins), and prolly quite a few buyers on eBay and auction sites as they are mostly PCG$ slabs going for stupid prices often. NGC slabbed coins have been going for more reasonable prices.

Some of the NGC older holders I don't like but that's just me personally.  I love many of their modern holders. 

On 11/4/2022 at 3:29 PM, EagleRJO said:

Also, I would have been okay with a hammer price around $75 to $100 over spot with a Saint being slightly less than 1 troy ounce.

If that made the hammer price $1,700 or so....then add in the 12.5% GC commission and you're just at over $1,900, so should be about what you're willing to pay.  If the difference is $50-$75 or so, I think that's swallowable. 

Edited November 5, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[EagleRJO]

On 11/5/2022 at 2:41 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Some of the NGC older holders I don't like but that's just me personally.  I love many of their modern holders. 

If that made the hammer price $1,700 or so....then add in the 12.5% GC commission and you're just at over $1,900, so should be about what you're willing to pay.  If the difference is $50-$75 or so, I think that's swallowable. 

Current spot hovering around $1,650 times 0.9685 ounces of gold for a Saint would be $1,600 plus that $100 would be a $1,700 hammer price you noted, plus a 10% BP at GC would be about $1,850.

But they have been going for around or over $2,000 so I am taking a pass for now and will see what they are going for after the winter, and how much cash I have left over after filling holes in my Morgan collection and heating oil plus electric prices skyrocketing.

But since I have a bunch of more modern gold bullion coins I may switch to first adding some gold Imdian head half eagles which I like more.. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/5/2022 at 2:41 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Some of the NGC older holders I don't like but that's just me personally.  I love many of their modern holders. 

If that made the hammer price $1,700 or so....then add in the 12.5% GC commission and you're just at over $1,900, so should be about what you're willing to pay.  If the difference is $50-$75 or so, I think that's swallowable. 

The last time I offered an opinion as to whether the Saints would come marching in, as it were, I was, for lack of a better expression, promptly dispatched with the n-word: "numismatic."

I was advised that the fluctuations in the bullion market had little effect on prevailing numismatic prices, particularly where Saints are concerned. [In the fickle world of coins, this is colloquially known as the "z effect."]*  On reflection, I agree.  To put it crudely, "ain' no Saints gonna go for bargain box prices, ever."  There is a comfort margin below which (at least in my mind's eye) Saints are not permitted to dip as dictated by "The Hand," that magical unseen device dealers deploy during times such as these, to insure their life's work (and net value) are not erased, because of a formal technicality like adverse market conditions. And, if ol' Q, who does not collect high stakes' trophies like Saints, is wrong, well now, then it is time to buy! Buy! BUY!

* not to be confused with the Coriolis effect which explains the forces at play in the formation of cyclonic weather systems and water draining patterns in the N and S hemispheres... not tanking prices. [I would expound on this, but my instinct tells me an outsized presence ATS is overdue for an appearance here.]  

Edited November 5, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
One typo.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/5/2022 at 6:47 AM, EagleRJO said:

Current spot hovering around $1,650 times 0.9685 ounces of gold for a Saint would be $1,600 plus that $100 would be a $1,700 hammer price you noted, plus a 10% BP at GC would be about $1,850.I 

I usually disregard the gold differential since it's only 3% or so.  But that's me.

On 11/5/2022 at 6:47 AM, EagleRJO said:

But they have been going for around or over $2,000 so I am taking a pass for now and will see what they are going for after the winter, and how much cash I have left over after filling holes in my Morgan collection and heating oil plus electric prices skyrocketing.

I posted above a bunch of Saints ending last Sunday went for mid-$1,900's including bp.  Should be more this week and the rise in gold this week might not reflect the final bidding.

These are at prices right now that keep the total cost under $2K:

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1255237/1908-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-No-Motto-PCGS-MS-63

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1258659/1927-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-NGC-MS-63-CAC

Edited November 6, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[EagleRJO]

On 11/5/2022 at 11:48 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I usually disregard the gold differential since it's only 3% or so.  But that's me.

You were the one who was telling me to use the actual weight at 0.9685 oz of gold.  

It does look like prices are comming down and maybe after the winter it will be just right.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/5/2022 at 2:52 PM, EagleRJO said:

You were the one who was telling me to use the actual weight at 0.9685 oz of gold.

I think I said BE AWARE of it...but I said if the price was good and you were OK with the coin, the 3% differential at today's levels isn't a deal-breaker.  Just be aware of it.  It's about $60 less per coin if you sold it to my LCS than a modern bullion coin.