Official Saint-Gaudens/Gold Coin Price Thread 2 2

[World Colonial]

On 6/27/2022 at 7:27 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think you are correct....CAC ignores the "+" designation.  But wouldn't a 66+CAC be at least as good as a 66 CAC for a (lucky) upgrade to MS-67 ?  Happens alot for non-plus coins so I would think the "+" couldn't hurt.

Yes, agree with that, all other things being equal.

On 6/27/2022 at 7:27 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

True, but the high bullion content and the large number of fans of the Double Eagle series imply much higher demand for the coin at all grades especially top-condition coins, right ?

I guess it just depends upon how you want to look at it.  I don't believe more than a low minority buying one of these CAC 66 common dates are primarily buying it primarily for collecting reasons but obviously, not something I can prove.  It's a combination of collecting and "investment".

All of these coins are "widgets" as far as I am concerned. The HR Saint is also very common, but it's had a high collector preference (almost) from the beginning which makes it different.  These dates used to be viewed as bullion and that's what it really is still, regardless of the grade.  It's bullion selling at an inflated premium.

The price spreads aren't that high percentage wise between grades versus "collector" coins, but that due to the high generic price and that as a 66, it's still actually very common even with the sticker.

[Cat Bath]

On 6/27/2022 at 6:24 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What about the counts for the 66-plusses ?

 Keep in mind that you have about 500 serious collectors (maybe more) who want top or near-top condition coins where they can afford it (and these people generally have the $$$

I've thought about that number a lot & think it is smaller. Maybe 250  (this includes "poverty sets" & higher)

My saints average out around Pop 100 higher. Meaning there are about 100 "better" than the one I have.

This for a person on a blue collar salary. I'm guessing 500+ serious, wealthy collectors would all but prevent me from owning the coins I do.

Purely a guess from looking at populations & public registry sets.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Cat Bath

[World Colonial]

On 6/29/2022 at 2:20 AM, Cat Bath said:

I've thought about that number a lot & think it is smaller. Maybe 250  (this includes "poverty sets" & higher)

My saints average out around Pop 100 higher. Meaning there are about 100 "better" than the one I have.

This for a person on a blue collar salary. I'm guessing 500+ serious, wealthy collectors would all but prevent me from owning the coins I do.

Purely a guess from looking at populations & public registry sets.

When did you buy most of your coins?

I think the conclusion is somewhat or noticeably different if mostly after 2009 versus mostly before due to the (much) higher spot price.  For the CAC, I presume the populations were noticeably lower, but the spot price is a bigger factor.

The premiums aren't that large for higher grades proportionately but the much higher spot prices since around 2010 make it far less competitive as a collectible.  As an "investment", it's got the potential to appreciate due to both rising spot and expanding premiums.  That's what makes it appealing for predominantly financially motivated buyers along with its much better relative liquidity.

What I described also usually applies for other large size gold, US or world.

[RWB]

CAC puts green or gold ovals on coins they would like to buy. That's all the stickers mean. This is a great, very cheap way for them to cherry pick collections for the which they will resell at a substantial premium. It is a good play on collector grading ignorance and TPG inconsistency.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/29/2022 at 2:20 AM, Cat Bath said:

I've thought about that number a lot & think it is smaller. Maybe 250  (this includes "poverty sets" & higher) My saints average out around Pop 100 higher. Meaning there are about 100 "better" than the one I have.

This for a person on a blue collar salary. I'm guessing 500+ serious, wealthy collectors would all but prevent me from owning the coins I do.  Purely a guess from looking at populations & public registry sets.

Based on the number of Saints at LCS, Coin Shows, and online auction, I think it's 500 - 1,000. 

Now...I do NOT think they are all chasing the high-end...many might even be AU-58 or MS-63 buyers for coins that look nice.  A guy making $500,000 a year with a net worth of $5 MM can probably afford a $50,000 MCMVII High Relief MS-65.....but he also may be happy with an AU-58 or MS-63 and save 30-70%.  The guy making a few million with a net worth of $30 MM is probably more price-insensitive.

Keep in mind that many coin collectors skew OLDER and they are at peak earning and net worth numbers relative to younger collectors -- or the same collector 20 or 30 or 40 years earlier.  Family obligations, mortage -- they all disappear once you are past 60 more or less.  More $$$ to spend on your hobby.

Most people, unless really dedicated to coin collecting, have enough trouble just saving for retirement.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/29/2022 at 9:05 AM, World Colonial said:

When did you buy most of your coins? I think the conclusion is somewhat or noticeably different if mostly after 2009 versus mostly before due to the (much) higher spot price.  For the CAC, I presume the populations were noticeably lower, but the spot price is a bigger factor.  The premiums aren't that large for higher grades proportionately but the much higher spot prices since around 2010 make it far less competitive as a collectible.  As an "investment", it's got the potential to appreciate due to both rising spot and expanding premiums.  That's what makes it appealing for predominantly financially motivated buyers along with its much better relative liquidity.  What I described also usually applies for other large size gold, US or world.

Aren't U.S. Small Coins post-1933 (maybe even a bit earlier) also very low in the high-end populations ?  I guess most circulated even though mintages were sometimes billions ?

[World Colonial]

On 6/29/2022 at 3:09 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Aren't U.S. Small Coins post-1933 (maybe even a bit earlier) also very low in the high-end populations ?  I guess most circulated even though mintages were sometimes billions ?

If you are using the prior CAC pop data I referenced, those numbers are not low for an MS-66.  It's common.  

For post-1933 US coinage, the populations for late 30's and later are what I would call very high, especially 38-D Buffalo nickel and 40's Mercury dimes.

Concurrently, I also assume the number not graded is usually probably greater and in some instances a (large) multiple of the TPG pops.  More so for Lincoln cents, Jefferson nickels, and later 40's to 1964 for the silver coinage.

The difference with these Saints dates is that first, as a large denomination it circulated much less or not at all.  Second, some or all are hoard coins.  Third, the coins are more likely to be graded due to the much higher market value.  If every or most potential MS-66 post-1933 US silver or base metal was graded, the market price would be a nominal premium over silver spot, less than the grading fee, or both. That's never going to happen because it makes no sense.

Mintages didn't reach one billion until the end of the Lincoln Wheat cent series.

[Henri Charriere]

Re "stickers"... as Popeye might have said, I don't believe in such things, i.e., opportunistic numismatic appurtenances.   

[zadok]

On 6/29/2022 at 7:17 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Re "stickers"... as Popeye might have said, I don't believe in such things, i.e., opportunistic numismatic appurtenances.   

...roosters only wish they could have them....

[Cat Bath]

On 6/29/2022 at 9:56 PM, zadok said:

...roosters only wish they could have them....

If I was a rooster, I'd want aviation capable...

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/29/2022 at 9:56 PM, zadok said:

...roosters only wish they could have them....

[Here's a thought that may ruffle a few feathers... if J.A. is as great a grader as coin lore claims him to be, he would grade raw coins, of any make and model, and then sticker them with his Good Housekeeping seal of approval. Otherwise his imprimatur is no more meaningful than slapping "Jordache" onto a pair of jeans... at the end of an assembly line.  IMNSHO.]   🐓 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/30/2022 at 11:58 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

[Here's a thought that may ruffle a few feathers... if J.A. is as great a grader as coin lore claims him to be, he would grade raw coins, of any make and model, and then sticker them with his Good Housekeeping seal of approval. Otherwise his imprimatur is no more meaningful than slapping "Jordache" onto a pair of jeans... at the end of an assembly line.  

I believe he worked/helped found PCGS....then helped found NGC.....so he has graded in the past raw coins.

[VKurtB]

On 6/30/2022 at 10:58 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

[Here's a thought that may ruffle a few feathers... if J.A. is as great a grader as coin lore claims him to be, he would grade raw coins, of any make and model, and then sticker them with his Good Housekeeping seal of approval. Otherwise his imprimatur is no more meaningful than slapping "Jordache" onto a pair of jeans... at the end of an assembly line.  IMNSHO.]   🐓 

So what happens when JA “shuffles off the mortal coil”? Does someone ELSE get appointed, or “coronated” as the be all and end all, or does CAC merely fade away? And also, if it’s a coronation, does Liz or John go first? Maybe Charles assumes BOTH positions of Majesty?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/30/2022 at 1:53 PM, VKurtB said:

So what happens when JA “shuffles off the mortal coil”? Does someone ELSE get appointed, or “coronated” as the be all and end all, or does CAC merely fade away? And also, if it’s a coronation, does Liz or John go first? Maybe Charles assumes BOTH positions of Majesty?

As Roger has stated numerous times....grading is an art not a science....a fluid game with ranges....not a definitive pronoucement.

We are SO MUCH BETTER off than 40 years ago or 60 years ago that to worry about this-or-that is meaningless, IMO.  Of course we have excesses and glitches and anomalies and inconsistencies....but it is NOTHING compared to what was unfair decades ago.

Edited June 30, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 6/30/2022 at 1:00 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

As Roger has stated numerous times....grading is an art not a science....a fluid game with ranges....not a definitive pronoucement.

We are SO MUCH BETTER off than 40 years ago or 60 years ago that to worry about this-or-that is meaningless, IMO.  Of course we have excesses and glitches and anomalies and inconsistencies....but it is NOTHING compared to what was unfair decades ago.

I’ve figuratively “crossed” about 10 coins in non-crossable holders (literally broke them open and submitted them raw) and I’ve literally “crossed” about a similar number of PCGS coins, all to NGC, and I kid you not, I’ve NEVER had even a single point difference show up from the “resubmission”, aside from two coins of the same type that came back flip-flopped from the original. (A 64 and 65 came back 65 and 64) Once you learn what these firms are looking at, and looking FOR, it all becomes pretty easy. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/29/2022 at 10:26 AM, RWB said:

CAC puts green or gold ovals on coins they would like to buy. That's all the stickers mean. This is a great, very cheap way for them to cherry pick collections for the which they will resell at a substantial premium. It is a good play on collector grading ignorance and TPG inconsistency.

To quote Otter, one of the frat house characters from "National Lampoon's Animal House":  "I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part," -- and that somebody might as well be me.  I have no quarrel with any TPGS, and in point of fact, based on information and knowledge as provided via an interview, found J.A. to be quite a likeable, affable gentleman in his own right. But the proof re CAC's is in the pudding. Let's not kid ourselves here. I picture J.A. sitting at a table with his beaming daughter at his side. He doesn't have a loupe; in his line of work he doesn't need one. Over 99.99% of the work involved has been done for him. All his daughter wants to know is Yes, or No. He gives the artifact sent to him a quick once-over and issues his proclamation. In his profession there are no losers. Only winners. He gets paid, regardless. And his daughter gets an extra scoop of vanilla ice cream. [If I am wrong, someone will gleefully say so.]  

Edited July 1, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Die polishing; typo

[RWB]

Replace "daughter" with "dog." (Keep the ice cream.)

[zadok]

On 6/30/2022 at 11:58 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

[Here's a thought that may ruffle a few feathers... if J.A. is as great a grader as coin lore claims him to be, he would grade raw coins, of any make and model, and then sticker them with his Good Housekeeping seal of approval. Otherwise his imprimatur is no more meaningful than slapping "Jordache" onto a pair of jeans... at the end of an assembly line.  IMNSHO.]   🐓 

...been there done that moved on....

[zadok]

On 6/30/2022 at 7:46 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

To quote Otter, one of the frat house characters from "National Lampoon's Animal House":  "I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part," -- and that somebody might as well be me.  I have no quarrel with any TPGS, and in point of fact, based on information and knowledge as provided via an interview, found J.A. to be quite a likeable, affable gentleman in his own right. But the proof re CAC's is in the pudding. Let's not kid ourselves here. I picture J.A. sitting at a table with his beaming daughter at his side. He doesn't have a loupe; in his line of work he doesn't need one. Over 99.99% of the work involved has been done for him. All his daughter wants to know is Yes, or No. He gives the artifact sent to him a quick once-over and issues his proclamation. In his profession there are no lovers. Only winners. He gets paid, regardless. And his daughter gets an extra scoop of vanilla ice cream. [If I am wrong, someone will gleefully say so.]  

...wrong...if coin doesnt CAC it only costs u the return shipping...no glee involved just that ur picture is totally out of focus, sorta like the opening of the Twilight Zone....

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/30/2022 at 8:17 PM, zadok said:

...wrong...if coin doesnt CAC it only costs u the return shipping...no glee involved just that ur picture is totally out of focus, sorta like the opening of the Twilight Zone....

I stand corrected. (It does appear this gentleman speaketh from experience.)  🐓 

[Henri Charriere]

@VKurtB:  At least you are brutally honest. The member I privately refer to as Chopper One had publicly declared he would never be a slave to any sarcophagus and that's been my guiding philosophy. Besides, cross-dressing is costly. I accept, without question, the fate accorded each and every one of my coins. Que sera, sera... (whatever will be, will be...)  🐓 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/30/2022 at 7:46 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

To quote Otter, one of the frat house characters from "National Lampoon's Animal House":  "I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part," 

We better stick to the topic or the mods will put us all on Double Secret Probation !!  

Edited July 1, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

On 7/1/2022 at 12:34 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

We better stick to the topic or the mods will put us all on Double Secret Probation !!  

JULY? Already?

BACK ON TRACK!

[Cat Bath]

On 6/30/2022 at 7:46 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

 I picture J.A. sitting at a table with his beaming daughter at his side. He doesn't have a loupe; in his line of work he doesn't need one. Over 99.99% of the work involved has been done for him. All his daughter wants to know is Yes, or No. He gives the artifact sent to him a quick once-over and issues his proclamation.

I imagine a conveyer belt with coins on it. JA pecks at the shiny ones as they go by & then off to the sticker station.

I seriously doubt anyone at CAC owns a loupe.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Cat Bath

[zadok]

On 7/4/2022 at 1:33 AM, Cat Bath said:

I imagine a conveyer belt with coins on it. JA pecks at the shiny ones as they go by & then off to the sticker station.

I seriously doubt anyone at CAC owns a loupe.

...i picture u n QA sitting at the table drinking from the same kool-aid jug....

[RWB]

On 7/4/2022 at 1:33 AM, Cat Bath said:

I imagine a conveyer belt with coins on it. JA pecks at the shiny ones as they go by & then off to the sticker station.

I seriously doubt anyone at CAC owns a loupe.

I wonder who licks the stickers?

[Henri Charriere]

I believe, I doubt I will ever truly know, the stickers come with an adhesive backing, much like postage stamps.

What enquiring minds like mine would like to know is what happens when the see-thru [stickered] sarcophagus has outlived its useful life and the coin lying therein has visibly changed in such a way as to strongly suggest the honor bestowed upon it, once upon a time, is no longer applicable?  🤔 

[GoldFinger1969]

A bit less activity ending the past Sunday....looks like MS-66 commons (1924's, 1908 NMs) still going for about $3,500 (w/BP), give or take 3-5% if condition warrants.

A 1924 went for $3,450 as did a 1908 NM....another 1924 went for $3,630 (all figures include BP).

[zadok]

On 7/5/2022 at 10:30 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

I believe, I doubt I will ever truly know, the stickers come with an adhesive backing, much like postage stamps.

What enquiring minds like mine would like to know is what happens when the see-thru [stickered] sarcophagus has outlived its useful life and the coin lying therein has visibly changed in such a way as to strongly suggest the honor bestowed upon it, once upon a time, is no longer applicable?  🤔 

...obviously ur mummie buys u another one....

[Henri Charriere]

Just saw something pending at HA... a MCMVII $20. High Relief, Flat Rim, MS66+ PCGS CAC, current bid 80K (99K w/bp) with eight more days to go.  (Am I back on track, or what?)