Official Saint-Gaudens/Gold Coin Price Thread 2 2

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 7/19/2023 at 12:12 PM, VKurtB said:

Ever calculate the de facto "per milligram" price of a CAC green bean on a PCGS slab? I'll bet it's more than the gold coin beneath it.

Ah, I missed that GF's examples were sans CAC. That makes more sense, $900 smackaroos is quite a premium for a green bean over the same coin and grade that had no taker without one. I didn't realize the increase was that much. 

[VKurtB]

On 7/19/2023 at 11:31 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Ah, I missed that GF's examples were sans CAC. That makes more sense, $900 smackaroos is quite a premium for a green bean over the same coin and grade that had no taker without one. I didn't realize the increase was that much. 

Over time, I've become painfully aware of how "the market" prices little green gummy stickers. It is utterly bizarre to me, but there it is for all to see. I don't know how YOUR body involuntarily reacts to that, but it makes me ... smh. All here can bid up whatever they like, for any reason they like, and they should rest assured that THIS guy will NOT be up-bidding ANY coin due to a stinking green sticker. You guys who do? You go do you. I am considering dropping my CPG subscription, because one out of every two books I get every quarter, I don't give a ____ about.

Edited July 19, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/19/2023 at 4:57 AM, VKurtB said:

I’ll bet that you do. The entire population of serious "by date and mintmark" collectors of $20 Saints could probably fit in a decent sized bus. Sorry, it's basically a Type Set series. In Europe, "normal" gold coins are 1/5 ounce. (0.1847)

My guestimate from dealers and columnists is there are probably 500-1,000 serious/registry players looking to collect most or all of the Saints in whatever high grade they can afford...then about 25,000 or so Type collectors (like me) who might have 1 or 2 or a dozen or two of the coins....then the investment folks who might not even be aware they have a Saint, just a coin that tracks bullion.  This latter group could be a few hundred thousand buyers. 

Many of my ex-clients had these coins 25-35 years ago, I wish I had shown an interest in them then. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/19/2023 at 9:59 AM, zadok said:

...not restrikes but related as not being able to definitively ascertain where/when coins were struck n also in regards to Mexican gold...the US mint at Philadelphia struck 5 peso n 10 peso gold for Mexico in 1906 which r indistinguisable from those struck at the Mexico City mint...collectors of Mexican gold dont seem to care but collectors of foreign coins struck at US mints can not verify where their examples were struck....

I always found it strange that other countries would outsource the striking of their coins.  I get it with a tiny country with limited resources or something like the Vatican...you'd think a country like Mexico, with national pride and enough resources, would want to strike their own coins.

Maybe it's also a trust thing ? 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/19/2023 at 11:28 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Just saw this posted by Ian Russell, seems odd they would be buying at those prices if Saints aren't selling like they used to.  GC is buying $20 Saints: PCGS MS-66+.CAC - $5,600 each PCGS MS-66 CAC - $4,800 each PCGS/NGC MS-65+ CAC - $2,950 each PCGS/NGC MS-65 CAC - $2,860 each Quantities welcome.

What years though ?  That's gotta impact the price they are willing to pay.

They seem to have enough supply, other coins had DOZENS of bids, as many as 50.  And while many of them were at super-low prices ($3 to $2,000) that would never win, there were plenty of back-and-forth bids in the range of fair value.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/19/2023 at 12:31 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Ah, I missed that GF's examples were sans CAC. That makes more sense, $900 smackaroos is quite a premium for a green bean over the same coin and grade that had no taker without one. I didn't realize the increase was that much. 

Don't feel bad, I missed it at first until this post.

They must be getting more registry/PCGS players who ONLY want CAC and PCGS.  I'm going to be on the lookout now to see if CAC sellers are more reasonable in their asking prices.

The CAC coin definitely deserves a premium, but the "jump" to the next highest grade is being overly discounted (IMO) by some sellers.  I can't quantify it, of course....and you never can tell if you WILL get the grade jump on the 3rd or 5th or 10th or 12th submission (i.e., Franklin Gradeflation Thread)...but I think people realize while CAC deserves a premium you need MORE than CAC to assume a jump to the next grade or even a decent shot to get that grade.

Edited July 20, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 7/19/2023 at 4:58 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

My guestimate from dealers and columnists is there are probably 500-1,000 serious/registry players looking to collect most or all of the Saints

That sounds extraordinarily high to me. I've never met a Saint collector that I know of, and I get around. On the contrary, I know quite a few foreign gold collectors, and more Morgan guys than you can swing a dead cat at.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 7/19/2023 at 6:04 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What years though ?  That's gotta impact the price they are willing to pay.

Definitely makes a difference, I used your '28 example and compared it to GCs offer to buy price as Ian posted a pic of a '28, but that does not mean the prices posted would be for a '28 saint with CAC, just me speculating. Are 28's one of the more common Saints? I'm guessing they are.

Do you think GC owned the coins that didn't sell in the examples you listed?

[VKurtB]

On 7/19/2023 at 6:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Definitely makes a difference, I used your '28 example and compared it to GCs offer to buy price as Ian posted a pic of a '28, but that does not mean the prices posted would be for a '28 saint with CAC, just me speculating. Are 28's one of the more common Saints? I'm guessing they are.

Do you think GC owned the coins that didn't sell in the examples you listed?

LOL! I LITERALLY have a Mega Red (4 of them, actually) just across the room on a bookshelf, and I can't be bothered to go look it up. THAT'S how little I care about St. Gaudens $20 gold. Maybe I'll grab it on my way to the bathroom when I need to go, but probably not. I mean, like, Mega Red's are HEAVY.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/19/2023 at 7:30 PM, VKurtB said:

That sounds extraordinarily high to me. I've never met a Saint collector that I know of, and I get around. On the contrary, I know quite a few foreign gold collectors, and more Morgan guys than you can swing a dead cat at.

Unless they meant Double Eagle collectors (to also include Liberty Head DEs), no, the numbers I've seen from Danreuther, Garrett, the HA folks, Winter, etc....is 500 or so, which I inflate from a few years ago to account for a wider base.

The high prices paid for rare Saints like the Fab Five definitely indicate more than a few dozen registry collectors.  Of course, this data could be quantified by the online auction sites and/or the trade organizations and professional organizations and then we'd have 90% or better confidence in the numbers instead of guestimates that could be off by multiples, of that I agree with you on.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/19/2023 at 7:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Definitely makes a difference, I used your '28 example and compared it to GCs offer to buy price as Ian posted a pic of a '28, but that does not mean the prices posted would be for a '28 saint with CAC, just me speculating. Are 28's one of the more common Saints? I'm guessing they are.

The 1928 Saint is considered a common coin, though probably not in MS-66+ CAC.  Without checking the pop numbers, I know it's not like the 1924 or 1908 NM.  The dropoff at MS-67 is pretty high, but it's still available.

On 7/19/2023 at 7:56 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Do you think GC owned the coins that didn't sell in the examples you listed?

I'm not sure, I'm not an expert on the roles these online firms do with auctions with coins that get no bids or low bid activity...sometimes they do apparently bid on certain coins under certain conditions, it's been the subject of some pretty harsh articles over the years, as I recall.  Someone more informed than me can probably explain further. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/19/2023 at 8:27 PM, VKurtB said:

LOL! I LITERALLY have a Mega Red (4 of them, actually) just across the room on a bookshelf, and I can't be bothered to go look it up. THAT'S how little I care about St. Gaudens $20 gold. Maybe I'll grab it on my way to the bathroom when I need to go, but probably not. I mean, like, Mega Red's are HEAVY.

Me, myself, I prefer The Complete Directory to Prime Time Network TV Shows 1946-Present when I am there. 

[GoldFinger1969]

MCMVII Ultra High Relief Clapp/Eliasberg/Bass:  It's up for sale in Part 4 of the Bass sale.  Thanks to Zadok for jogging my memory. 

Here's the listing:

https://coins.ha.com/itm/proof-high-relief-double-eagles/1907-20-ultra-high-relief-inverted-edge-lettering-pr69-pcgs-judd-1909-pollock-2003-jd-4-high-r7-pcgs-/a/1363-9082.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

Here's articles on the coin:

https://coinweek.com/bass-collection-1907-ultra-high-relief-double-eagle-at-heritage/

https://www.numismaticnews.net/us-coins/1907-ultra-high-relief-double-eagle-takes-flight

This coin is PR-69.  But I think it COULD be the finest of the MCMVII UHRs because the other PR-69, the Trompeter-Morse coin, was originally graded PR-67 and then got a 2-point upgrade over the years and most grade it PR-67+ or PR-68.  The Bloomfield, "Wall Street Bond Trader", Hein-Simpson, Trompeter-Morse, and Browning coins are the Top 5 but now the Eliasburg/Bass coin might be able to leapfrog them if the 69 grade is legit.

The Bloomfield PR-68 CAC w/Inverted Edge Lettering, was bought in April 2021 for $4.1MM by an anonymous buyer.  In December 2021 a PCGS PR-68 CAC went for $4.75 MM as HA sold the coin to GC on behalf of our good friend EC.

The Norweb UHR was sold for $3.6 MM in February 2021 and is PF-68 NGC w/Normal Edge Lettering.

If the grade on this coin is solid for a 69 or even a strong 68+ (with or without CAC), it could/should go for over $5 MM.  We'll have to see, but UHR's have been hot the last 2 years or so. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 7/19/2023 at 6:01 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I always found it strange that other countries would outsource the striking of their coins.  I get it with a tiny country with limited resources or something like the Vatican...you'd think a country like Mexico, with national pride and enough resources, would want to strike their own coins.

Maybe it's also a trust thing ? 

...most likely a combination of things...resources, manpower, volume, equipment, timing etc...the US mint(s)* struck over 700 diff coins for foreign govts over 7 billion coins...in gold, silver, other alloys...large countries n small, mostly small....

*coins were struck at D,P,S mints and one issue was struck at the O mint in 1907...

[zadok]

On 7/19/2023 at 12:31 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Ah, I missed that GF's examples were sans CAC. That makes more sense, $900 smackaroos is quite a premium for a green bean over the same coin and grade that had no taker without one. I didn't realize the increase was that much. 

...the green bean routinely generates 30-40% premiums in several series, ive seen coins that were beaned bring double retail for certain dates n denominations...n lets not even discuss premiums for the gold bean....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/20/2023 at 8:50 AM, zadok said:

...the green bean routinely generates 30-40% premiums in several series, ive seen coins that were beaned bring double retail for certain dates n denominations...n lets not even discuss premiums for the gold bean....

And if it is true that CAC won't be stickering or severely reducing their stickering as they focus on being the 3rd TPG.....then there's gonna be value to the CAC sticker just like an OGH holder.  People will want the CAC sticker even if they know the coin won't upgrade.

[GoldFinger1969]

BW, bid is at $1.95 MM w/BP for that Clapp/Eliasberg/Bass UHR.  21 days left until bidding.

Get your bids in !! 

EC, Roger....any thoughts on this coin and the grade relative to all the other 68's out there ?

[EliteCollection]

I have not seen the Bass in person. People who have seen it tell me that it's overgraded and that my 68 CAC is just as good if not better than the Bass 69.

 

Btw, if you are on MyCollect, you can find me. My username is Elite.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/20/2023 at 11:46 AM, EliteCollection said:

I have not seen the Bass in person. People who have seen it tell me that it's overgraded and that my 68 CAC is just as good if not better than the Bass 69.  Btw, if you are on MyCollect, you can find me. My username is Elite.

I'll sign up soon, thanks ! 

I wouldn't doubt you on the MCMVII UHR's.  The rankings from experts seem distinct from the actual grades and a 69 vs. a 68 CAC is a slight difference, and that assumes the 69 is legit.

The label on the Bass coin is strange -- darkish green, I can barely make out the writing on it.  Never saw that before.  In all the articles I have seen ranking the UHR's, I don't recall seeing the Bass coin listed as ranked or even missing because nobody had seen it in so long (if ever).  With Chapp and Eliasberg heritage, it's kind of hard to forget so that's strange.

Some guy named Thomas Elder had the coin and it was apparently worth $1,100 in the 1920's.  This was 40-50x the value of a regular MCMVII HR.  If it goes for $4 MM, it will have compounded in value at 7% a year since 1982; if it goes for $5 MM it's 7.7% a year.  Once again, even a trophy coin has trouble producing double-digit returns over a long period of time. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

The Bass coin was among the museum-like pieces that was rarely seen.  Was under control of the ANA but not sure if they displayed it widely or when it was graded or last seen:

"...Approximately 20 examples are known to collectors today, but six of those coins are impounded in institutional collections at the Smithsonian Institution, the American Numismatic Society, the Harry Bass Core Collection at the ANA, and the Connecticut State Library."  - Heritage Archives

[Just Bob]

On 7/20/2023 at 4:59 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

 

Some guy named Thomas Elder had the coin and it was apparently worth $1,100 in the 1920's.  

That "some guy" was Thomas L. Elder, writer, publisher, dealer, and producer of tokens and medals, and one of the organizers of the New York Numismatic Club. (J Sanford Saltus was also a founding member. Look him up for a tale of misadventure.) 

Tom Delorey (CaptHenway)_ has written a book cataloguing his tokens.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/22/2023 at 12:13 AM, Just Bob said:

That "some guy" was Thomas L. Elder, writer, publisher, dealer, and producer of tokens and medals, and one of the organizers of the New York Numismatic Club. (J Sanford Saltus was also a founding member. Look him up for a tale of misadventure.) 

Tom Delorey (CaptHenway)_ has written a book cataloguing his tokens.

Yes, he was apparently well-known in the numismatic community as you cited.  I had never seen his name before.  Well, I'm in good company -- Max Mehl apparently forgot he auctioned off the coin in 1920 when he was doing a listing in 1944 !! 

Interesting life Elder lived....he was the telegraph guy who gave updates on the condition of President McKinley for 8 days until his death when he was attacked by that anarchist in 1902.  TR succeeded McKinley, of course. 

Who knows how numismatic history is different if McKinely had remained president instead of Teddy ?

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 7/19/2023 at 5:01 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I always found it strange that other countries would outsource the striking of their coins. 

Right NOW, the British Royal Mint in Llantrisant, Wales (The one on London's Tower Hill stopped in 1971.) strikes coins for in excess of 80 nations, many of which are former Commonwealth countries, but SOME which have NO past association with the U.K.  Outsourcing coin production is as common as Philadelphia cents. Even Belgium strikes euros for several euro nations.

Edited July 22, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/22/2023 at 12:33 AM, VKurtB said:

Right NOW, the British Royal Mint in Llantrisant, Wales (The one on London's Tower Hill stopped in 1971.) strikes coins for in excess of 80 nations, many of which are former Commonwealth countries, but SOME which have NO past association with the U.K.  Outsourcing coin production is as common as Philadelphia cents. Even Belgium strikes euros for several euro nations.

That makes sense....Mexico, with its up-and-down relationship to her large neighbor to the north, was more surprising to me outsourcing mintage to the U.S.

[zadok]

On 7/22/2023 at 1:56 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That makes sense....Mexico, with its up-and-down relationship to her large neighbor to the north, was more surprising to me outsourcing mintage to the U.S.

...u need to also consider the political/economical environment when that decision to partially outsource was made, it was during extensive labor unrest n the pre-revolution frenzy....

[GoldFinger1969]

1930-S Double Eagle: Here's something you don't see too often.....an AG-03 CAC for a 1930-S that looks REALLY circulated. 

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1298989/1930-S-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-PCGS-AG-03-CAC-Green

I'm kind of surprised that it goes for about the asking price of $60,000 maybe a bit less....I would think that any serious collector who can afford that amount will just pay up 2-3x to get one closer to EF or AU.

Do people really go down that far in quality for Saints and other valuable coins ?

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/7/2023 at 1:19 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1930-S Double Eagle: ....

Do people really go down that far in quality for Saints and other valuable coins ?

My thoughts... somebody somewhere needs that DE badly for his low-ball set, but that aside, the bean, contrary to what z may crow, has shown itself in no way more concretely than it possibly can, to be a superfluous accessory. Gold is valuable but you couldn't pay ME one cent to own this. I'm dying to hear what @World Colonial has to say about this. 

[zadok]

On 8/7/2023 at 1:19 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1930-S Double Eagle: Here's something you don't see too often.....an AG-03 CAC for a 1930-S that looks REALLY circulated. 

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1298989/1930-S-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-PCGS-AG-03-CAC-Green

I'm kind of surprised that it goes for about the asking price of $60,000 maybe a bit less....I would think that any serious collector who can afford that amount will just pay up 2-3x to get one closer to EF or AU.

Do people really go down that far in quality for Saints and other valuable coins ?

...there r collectors for virtually everything, dino dung included, n in coins as u well know anything goes but u pose an interesting question on higher value gold coins in super low grades...im sure many low ball type collectors would die for said coin but at what price?...this is where the rarity of the coin comes into the mix n definitely skews the value of what a low ball gold coin should sell for...i have often bought low ball n damaged (holed) gold coins but usually at or near melt, i have paid more for rarer dates n mints than melt...but there is a limit as to where to draw that line n that line shifts per the individual n their pocketbook...i can tell u i have seen 1792 half dimes with holes sell into the low to mid 5 figures though...as to the green bean on said coin its diff to determine what value it may or may not add in this case at that price level...i do know that many low ball collectors pay more for Po-01 coins with beans however one with a gold bean really indicates that the coin isnt a Po-01 coin, just to add to the discussion....

[GoldFinger1969]

That coin is so worn I wonder what did it...could it really have been circulated for a long time ?  Maybe kept in a pocket of change which added to the friction ?  That coin is REALLY worn.

They must have done studies...what kind of time frame and what kind of "wear" is needed to create that flattish appearance ?

 

[zadok]

On 8/7/2023 at 10:27 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That coin is so worn I wonder what did it...could it really have been circulated for a long time ?  Maybe kept in a pocket of change which added to the friction ?  That coin is REALLY worn.

They must have done studies...what kind of time frame and what kind of "wear" is needed to create that flattish appearance ?

 

...it appears to be honest wear n not manufactured wear hence the green bean for grade, not a dryer coin either...due to softness of gold it wouldnt be unexpected, question is did people actually spend $20 gold that much?...ur suggestion of it being a pocket pc is viable...i have seen many $1, $2 1/2, $5 gold in grades as low or even lower...i personally doubt it sells for the starting price but how do u determine a fair price?...whats the census for $20 gold in that grade for all dates?....