GoldFinger1969

I never said you can PREDICT the price of gold. I think we look at the supply and demand fundamentals and the exogenous shock potentials and determine if the next big move is likely UP or DOWN. I think it's up. Would I bet the farm on it ? Absolutely not...but I'd rather buy gold at $1,800 and see it drop to $1,600 rather than not buy and see it scoot up to $2,500 and more and hope for a dip to let me get in hundreds higher than the original $1,800 I passed on. Since the price was freed, gold has made big moves about every 20 years or so.

Or realize that any premiums you pay -- numismatic or holder/grade -- are a sunk cost for the enjoyment of the coin by the buyer. Like a piece of art, just assume it'll lose value over time and you won't be disappointed.

I believe when Switt sold the coins for the first time to dealers/collectors they went for $500. I believe that the Farouk Saint was sold by Max Mehl for about $1,500 in 1944 (OTTOMH). Prices asked and prices realized in the 1930's and 1940's were all over the place because nobody knew the actual mintages for many of the coins AND how many had survived. Other coins in the 1930's were believed to be more rare than the 1933 Saint, including the 1926-D, 1926-S, and 1924-S It was assumed that a bunch of the 445,000 DEs were out there and would eventually surface. Same thing with the 1927-D (which did have a limited number out there).

They get alot right. Look at the inflation predictions, which have certainly come true. If you get the Fed unable to get inflation back down to 2% and willing to tolerate 3-4% (because of the labor participation rate and other structural imbalances)...that's a game-changer.

I also believe that Numismatic News had advertisements for the 1933 DE as early as 1937. I am unaware of any FOR SALE notices before then, which I have to admit does lend some credence to those who say they "escaped" in 1937. I still think they should have been "legal" even if they got out in 1937, but a 1933 or 1934 escape strengthens the buyers claims. Regardless, Mary O'Reilly and others surely knew of the ads (they were in periodicals tracked by the Mint) and nobody objected before Howard in 1944. Wikipedia notes that "she was not interviewed when the Mint in 1944 investigated how several 1933 Double Eagles, never officially released, had come onto the market, an omission Burdette finds unusual."

This was the auction/sale that started it all. Ernest Kehr, the mid-20's stamp and coin commentator at The NY Herald Tribune (probably 3rd largest NYC paper at that time), reached out to the U.S. Mint to find out how many 1933 DEs were out there. He reached Leland Howard, a high-ranking Mint official, who told him NONE were supposed to be out there. The Feds got involved....Stacks pulled the coin....and while most of the U.S. government was involved for the next 8-10 years defeating or containing Hitler, Mao, and Stalin....the U.S. Mint focused on the Real Evil in the world....folks who had a 1933 Double Eagle.

Makes sense. Commemoratives had a GREAT decade in the 1980's....I think the only sector to do really well -- and they were a major contributing factor in the Coin Bubble of 1989. I think many commemoratives lost 80-85% over the decades.

Beautiful coins....now THESE are proofs I can have grow on me, as opposed to the ones decades earlier. Not the modern mirror-like proofs I am used to but you can see the artistic beauty come through with the clean fields.

Having read through Roger's Saints Double Eagles book with 650 pages and LOTS of footnotes....I am WELL aware of his attention to detail. I find that you can learn alot about things he just touches on -- like small denomination gold coin circulation here and overseas -- just by focusing on the FN's. And I have to re-read the book again, like you, because there is SO MUCH information I couldn't absorb it all the first time. How many pages is the Proof Book ?

Nice !! Yes, I miss Louis Rukeyser and WSW, too. Never forgot Marty Zweig before and right after the 1987 Market Crash. Worked for some people who appeared on the show; with a little luck I may have gotten on, too. Oh well.... I attended a roast for Rukeyser back in 1989 down in Ft. Lauderdale at an investment conference. All the newsletter writers were there -- they were the ones who moved the market, plus FNN -- and it was great to schmooze with many of them Some are no longer with us, others left the business or winded their business down. One of the attendees was James Dines, a gold bug, who is also a Saint-Gaudens collector whose named coins appear from time-to-time.

I've gotten archived articles and pieces from friends who were dealers back then. My friend was buying Saints for < $1,000 right after the 1987 Stock Market Crash. He said 2 years later he was selling them for about $3,000 on average without any real big jump in gold (I'll have to check the gold price pre-Crash, post-Crash, and mid-1989). Figures we weren't in touch back then (no internet, email, cell phones, etc.) and I missed out on a good thing !

FlyingAl, why don't you tell us a few things you learned from the book that maybe you didn't know ? Any "shockers" or things that you found REALLY interesting ? Let's jumpstart this thread. I may have to check out the book, sounds interesting !

I'm going to guess it's worth about $30-$35 ? Would that be around right, guys ?

Market prognosticators would disagree. It is certainly not a 1-to-1 relationship but I do think -- within certain ranges -- that gold and oil would move together especially to the upside. If oil doubled or tripled in price...and the Fed and ECB both said they are going to live with higher inflation for a few more years because of the oil shock.....bond yields and gold are both likely to be substantially higher.

What you have is most likely a common Morgan Silver Dollar worth the value of the silver. We'd need to know the condition of the coin to determine if it's worth a multiple of silver value because it is in pristine, Mint State condition. PCGS and NGC both have price guides online for a 1921 Morgan Silver Dollar. Yours is most likely worn, probably in the AU condition or lower. Pics ?

Because the underlying fundamentals of popcorn and peanuts aren't even remotely related to the underlying fundamentals of gold. But that is NOT the case with oil and gold....or inflation and gold....or other factors. Nobody is looking for a rerun of the 1970's...in fact, you could have inflation and lots of other variables lineup for gold PERFECTLY...and if a few countries or central banks or SWFs decided to unload a few hundred tons of gold, the price of gold would probably go down. I continue to think that gold is like a giant beachball being held under the water line. When it bounces up, it will be a big and fast move up.

True...but that was largely oil specific (negative prices) and it still impacted those other items because it's possible (though you can't know for sure) they would have gone UP without the collapse in oil prices. Ceteris Paribus.

Which reminds me....when was the LAST time CNBC had a debate on the price of gold ? It's tough enough for someone to even mention gold at the end of an interview (if the CNBC hosts remember to do so). I remember when you would see a debate on the price of gold every week with a bull and bear going at it. Maybe I'll reach out to Mike Santoli, I used to do some stuff with him and he's a guy who still looks at gold every now and then. Maybe he'll book me and I can talk about Saints !!

When does the new service start ? The sample holders we saw...those will be the actual ones, right ?

NSF ??

What Mike said.....and again, if a particular note isn't super-rare then it's gonna have to be in Gem or Superb Gem Mint State condition to be worth serious $$$.

You guys MAY be right...maybe the dealers and attendees are 100% Gold Bugs....but my experience with talking to people who still buy gold like they did 20 or 40 years ago is they track all/many financial markets. Then again, I do have a CFA and CFP so maybe it's the company I keep.

I bet you would be right 40 or even 20 years ago....but I think nowadays with smartphones people are tracking all financial markets: the DJIA.....gold....bond yields....BitCoin.....crypto. You have to....they ALL impact to an extent.

Markets are interrelated. Buying or selling in one market, particularly illiquid ones, can touch off buying or selling in others. You have certainly heard how U.S. Treasuries benefit from flight-to-quality during financial stress. If oil buyers and oil market watchers see the oil market going nuts, they are going to assume it spills over to the gold market. Especially since many big oil producers like to have gold in their SWFs and Central Banks. I think a collapse in oil prices would be bearish for gold prices and a skyrocketing price would be bullish. How much remains to be seen. Let's leave it at that.

Yeah, more like a COMMUNIST thing. They don't mind stealing from others -- it's a "cultural" thing -- but when Great Britain had control of Hong Kong or when Taiwan wants to be left alone, that's a grave offense.