GoldFinger1969

Tom made that point at FUN. The Chinese have been playing fast-and-loose with fair/free trade and copyrights ever since they were admitted to GATT/WTO back in 1999.

Also follows the bursting of a coin and PM bubble. Maybe that is another reason.

Suckers is a bit too harsh. Suckers is folks believing in crypto like some relatives who I found out today had 5-figures in the stuff. No gold, but $30,000 in BitCoin. Unreal. I'll be working on him.

1.2 ounces, right ? I think it's listed in BARRON's weekly gold coin price list.

You don't like the nice-dark look of modern, mirror-like gold proofs ?

At some point, this thread and when it was started should make for some good posts. In the meantime, we can discuss WHAT and WHEN that big increase might happen. I thought about a much higher gold price when this piece talking about Putin and oil prices caught my eye:"...JP Morgan says Russia could give us a nasty surprise by cutting oil output by three millions barrels a day (3pc of world supply), which is physically possible without damaging its own drilling infrastructure. This would drive prices to an all-time high of $190. If Putin went for the jugular with a five million cut, prices could reach $380 a barrel." FWIW, I disagree with the absolute level of the price moves in oil if the output reductions take place. I think Brent/WTI would head for $125 if 3 MM/bbl./d exit, and maybe $200/bbl/d if 5 million barrels exit. But the loss of such output would have guestimates all over the place. It would depend on the state of economic growth in the U.S. and Europe; China lockdowns and GDP growth, and willingness of OPEC/Saudi Arabia to make up some of the lost barrels.Nonetheless...an oil price shock, even though it has many DEFLATIONARY and anti-gold variables, would probably be a big boost to gold prices especially if it re-accelerated inflation.Remember, it was the loss of Iranian oil -- about 4 MM/bbl./d (right between those two estimates) -- that led to gold doubling in price in about 18 months back in 1979-80.

BUMP: Thought this might be worthy of a bump, seeing as CAC The Sticker will be replaced by CAC The Grading Service. The interview which opened this thread is very informative.

BTW, I would also note that on modern submissions you already have a differentiated grading system of sorts....for bulk grading, you sometimes get a general description like "GEM MINT" rather than an actual number. I have that designation on some of my Saint-Gaudens commemoratives. It means the coin is at least a 65, and maybe a 66. Not sure how many 67's and above it would represent as you would think that if you can get a 67-70 grade it would mean more $$$ and why leave that on the table. I don't know if they ever use "SUPERB GEM MINT" to signify 67 and above.

Again...and I admit it's a SMALL PERCENTAGE of people...but if you get them interested in NCLT via this NGCX system, it can lead to people being exposed to other stuff that they then might take an interest in. Maybe it rekindles stuff they did as kids...maybe it's something new. The first non-bullion gold coin I ever bought was the 2009 Ultra High Relief Saint-Gaudens recreation. Once I got it, I started reading about all the other pre-1933 Gold Coin options out there....and here I am today.

How do you know that ? Looking at market prices, or anectdotal evidence from contacts who know those who collect ? Because the Rooster is not produced today, I think that is why most American collectors aren't familiar with it like the pedigree for other countries who mint annual gold coins (i.e., Austria Crown, Philharmonic, Krugerrand, Maple Leaf, etc.). But the coin could be much better known in Europe and especially among the French. Could be the equivalent of a Silver Certificate here in the U.S. when I was growing up: you knew of it, you saw it occasionally, and you wanted to collect them. If/since many of these same are probably interested in having some of their assets in gold, they can probably use some of the lower-graded Roosters as bullion subsitutes. Makes it still worth following even if you have gotten all the low-hanging fruit and can't afford the pricey ones.

I believe he spoke at FUN 2020 and gave a good presentation.

I think we were discussing lots of stuff tangental but related to the NGCX rollout: state of the hobby, investment opportunties, new coin collectors, moderns and classics, etc. Until we see the actual NGCX product and activity, I don't think there's that much to talk about or even speculate. Which probably explains why we went off on somewhat different but loosely-tied topics to the NGCX product.

Which coins are you largely referrring to there, Gmarg ? FWIW, I think focusing on the subsectors of the PCGS 3000 is more relevant. The 3000 is just way too broad.

The PCGS 3000 was in a 10-12 year bear market and then appeared to bottom in late-2019/early-2020. Wouldn't you agree that we finally declined enough and are ripe for a rebound ? U.S.-specific collections like Franklins were down 60-75% from a decade ago.

But that was a legit shock in terms of price and sentiment. Prices SKYROCKETED in 10 years...it was one giant bubble....subject to legal restrictions, you could buy Saints for about $70 which then cost 5x as much 5 years or so later and 20x as high in 10 years. You had lots of people with sticker shock who couldn't see paying 5-10x what they had laying flat for years or decades in price. Even small denomination penny/nickel/quarter/half dollar/other coin types had great appreciation, even aside from silver and gold coin types.

I think SLOWLY or GRADUALLY rising prices -- since most of us have done lots of buying ALREADY -- is not necessarily a bad thing. You don't want the coin hobby to resemble 1989-90 or the NFT craze...but you don't want investor enthusiasm to go the way of stamp collectors, either. A happy medium is best, I guess. Since many/most of us have no intention of selling, even if we are 90% done with our major buying we don't care if the future buying buoys our assets, we are just concerned it'll drive up the prices on the 10% of coins we still need. I guess our heirs or estate will benefit, huh !!

I don't know how you can define "getting priced out" like we are talking about San Francisco real estate and you're a middle-class worker making $100,000 a year who doesn't work for a tech company making 4x that amount. Did coins get "priced out" in 1989-90 during the bubble when Wall Street dollars were coming in -- with more to come -- and MS-65 Saints sold for $3,500 and gold was at $400 ? If a bunch of social media gazillionaires or crypto gurus (at least up to 6 months ago) had decided to put a few hundred million into coins/Saints, that would jack up the prices, no ? Does our EC, Bob Simpson, and others drive up the prices on trophy coins ? Does that drag upward the prices on 5 and 6-figure coins even if you don't buy 7-figure Saints ? If the 5-figures go up, can that impact the 4-figure coins we swim in over time ? When a commodity has limited supply, and demand increases, the only "fair" way to allocate is for the price to rise.

Why ?

This new system is limited to modern coins, right ?

Doug Winter came up with 500 and I have interpolated since his (dated) comment allowing for expansion of the group. It definitely could be less as you say, WC. Also, I'm not a registry player but since 1 coin (the 1933) is uncollectable unless you are our friend EC here at this forum....and unless you are willing to pay Big $$$ or go down bigtime in quality for about 5-7 other Saints, most people who are even serious collectors might only want to go for 40 or 45 coins or something like that. I would still call those people registry players even if they have no intention of going after every non-1933 coin in the Saint series. Agree with your guestimates.

Roger, a recurring theme in your book is that it was a "waste" to keep striking Double Eagles and then have them sit in vaults....letters from Mint officials admitting this....etc. Question....do you recall any figures for how much it cost monetarily to run all 3 mints per year ? Or maybe what percentage of that figure could be apportioned to the striking of double eagles (obviuosly, the mints struck other coins for which personnel were paid) ? I don't recall seeing any figures in your book, but I'm re-reading all the non-Saint chapters focused on coinage and gold so if you did mention it I guess I will eventually come across it.

Well, that move certainly wasn't a result of stimulus checks or Covid-19. The investors who can afford a 5-figure coin approaching 6-figures is very small....but it's much larger than those writing out 7-figures for the elite coins in high grade. Have other Saints like the Fab Five almost doubled in price or is that move limited to the 1929 ? It tends to be among the most affordable of the end of the series Saints.

Makes sense. One estimate for collectors of Saints was that 500-1,000 were serious registry players....about 25,000 were Type collectors or partial-registry collectors (anywhere from 2-20 Saints; I'm in this group).....and the rest in the hundreds of thousands who were investors in bullion who used a few super-common Saints. There are about 10 Saints that have 20,000 or more coins in Mint State alone that are available at spot gold or modest premiums for low-60's Mint State grades. These are the coins that the 3rd group, the investor class, would be utilizing for the most part. I have not seen any estimates for serious Morgan registry players, Type collectors, or investors using them as a silver bullion substitue. I am going to guess it is a multiple of Saint investors given the much lower cost to collect....probably as many as 10-20x as more.

With the stock market down, NFTs and sports cards down, BitCoin and crypto imploding...it will be interesting to see if bullion and coins get some $$$. I think coins and Saints have history and great stories interwoven into them, but I just don't know if today's generation will learn about them playing Call of Duty or Fortnight.

And yet, the ridiculous premiums on silver persist even without leading to a rise in the silver price. Go figure....