GoldFinger1969

Up another $65 to $2,060 or so....it's a runaway freight train. 

On 1/27/2022 at 10:51 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Prices At The Superb Gem Level:  Was thinking a bit about a post I noted on another thread here in the forums.  MS-67's Saints are selling for $12,500 give-or-take for 1924's and about 10% higher, ~$14,000 for 1928's.  Both are considered commons and plentiful in MS-65 and not that rare in MS-67, too.  1923-D's, another "common" coin, also in the mid-teens or thereabouts for an MS-67.

However...there's a big dropoff for a coin that has lots more in the Superb Gem category and plenty (but not as many as the 1924 or 1927) in the Gem category, the 1908 No Motto.  It sells for about half the price of the 1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928.  

Roger's Estimates for the coins are listed first and then I have both the latest PCGS and NGC Population Census for the year.  I have no idea really how to account for double-counting and crackouts by just adding PCGS and NGC totals to one another.  Feel free to chime in. 

1908 No Motto:  MS-67/68 @ 2,001 (both rays) and MS65/66 @ 19,400.    PCGS @ 1,027 and 40,745.....NGC @ 1,360 and 21,094.

1923-D:   MS-67/68 @ 90 and MS-65/66 @ 5,500.   PCGS @ 90 and 4,753........NGC @ 57 and 2,679.

1924:   MS-67/68 @ 225....and MS-65/66 @ 79,500.  PCGS @ 135 and 64,350....NGC @ 220 and 4,2841.

1927:   MS-67/68 @ 60 and 48,000 for 65-66.  PCGS @ 36 and 39,601.....NGC @ 62 and 24,830.

1928  MS-67/68 @ 140.......MS-65/66 @ 16,200.    PCGS @ 117 and 15,112.....NGC @ 103 and 8,483.

You can clearly see the huge dropoff at the Super Gem (MS67 and up) in the 4 other commons (1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928) compared to the 1908.  Hundreds available there in total for all 4 but a few thousand of the 1908 NM's.  Ironically, the 1924 and 1927 dwarf the 1908 NM at the Gem level (MS65-66) by a huge factor, the Wells Fargo Hoard really skewed the totals at that 67 level in favor of the 1908 NM.

Forgot to add that 1923-D's and 1927's -- which are considered common Type coins in lower grades -- sell for about $16,000 and $18,000...give-or-take.

That huge increase in MS67/68's for the 1908 NM really lowers the price by more than 50% from the cheapest other 67's.  Estimates I have seen are that there are definitely a few hundred serious Saint collectors who want to pay up for high-quality coins and are into registry listings.  With 2,000 (or more) 67/68 coins available, you can fill that demand plus lots of others who normally wouldn't pay up for a condition rarity grade.

Fascinating to see how price rises parabolically when the population tails off....and conversely, see a big drop in the same grade when you switch Type coins from rare to scarce.

We hit $2,000 earlier today.    

Approaching $2,000 an ounce.....emerging markets central banks are buying gold.....the El Salvador/BitCoin thing isn't really doing much to kill the gold appetite....also, the long-term moving average for gold is moving UP which means this move in gold is not in the late innings.

CTRL-C your comments partway through if it is a very long post and you don't want to lose what you typed so far.

On 3/2/2022 at 10:26 AM, GBrad said:

Now that's gross!

All I know is....you could DIE.... from that CRACK !!!  

On 3/5/2022 at 1:47 PM, RWB said:

That is why ship manifests and sailing dates/times were daily features of newspapers. Large gold transfers were often reported in business articles, even including which banks provided the gold, its purpose, source, and where on a ship the gold was being stowed.

Couldn't all this information being public be a security risk ?

I believe the Parsippany Garden State Coin Show is tomorrow (Sunday March 6th)...anybody planning on going ?

Not an expert on non-U.S. coins, but I would think recent auctions are your best friend, no ?

On 3/5/2022 at 12:10 PM, RWB said:

Financial sections of New York papers included gold shipments as routine data.

Wow, I didn't know that.  You would think the average reader of NY papers wouldn't care about that only bankers and government officials.

Very informative.  Thanks, Roger.  

Question for Roger:  How did you find otherwise obscure articles from The New York Times or coin journals (among others) that were not critical to the book but added very small details to help you at various points in the book ?    Articles like "$3,770,000 Gold To Go Today" (NYT 3/10/1909) on page 6?  

Did you have some search engine that scanned The Times for ANY article with the world "gold" in it ?  Otherwise, unless you were really focused on a very minute detail that doesn't seem critical, I don't know how you would have found some of the footnoted resources you eventually ended up using...or it wouldn't have been worth the time and effort to find them. 

Many of your footnotes and obscure notes are super-detailed and quite frankly you could have completed the book without many of these minute footnotes and/or tidbits of information.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you included them (they add to the book)....I'm just wondering how you even found some of them.  Did you have some search item that when you asked for "gold trade" 150 articles came up and then you could narrow the field or scan them for relevance ?

On 3/4/2022 at 2:09 PM, Alex in PA. said:

No change.  Once again:  Taking away an Oligarch's yacht is like take away my fishing rod.  KMart for a new one and park it in Cuba. Or Turkey, eh?

Actually, LukOil -- #2 oil company -- came out against the war and Putin.  Need others to follow.

On 3/4/2022 at 1:32 PM, Alex in PA. said:

So, the US Fed must travel to Russia and seize The Vlad's, and his Oligarch buddies, computers, laptops, I Pads, etc and take away the 'Bad Boys' assets.

Not necessarily.   These guys want to use yachts and go on vacataions and spend time in their $50 MM pied-a-perre or whatever they call it for luxury apartments and mansions.

These guys are now TOXIC as long as Putin is in the Ukraine.  It's like being a millionaire member of the Third Reich in early-1945. 

Try and enjoy your status !! 

On 3/4/2022 at 1:26 PM, Alex in PA. said:

 Bitcoin = 40,767.04 US Dollar  Oligarchs celebrate.

But down 4% today.

On 3/4/2022 at 12:00 PM, zadok said:

...go gold.....

Going more.....now up $32 and closing in on $1,970.

Again....if these Russian oligarchs get screwed out of their BitCoin holdings, the entire rationale for $1 trillion in crypto goes down the toilet, IMO.  If even 10% of that goes into gold, look out. 

On 3/4/2022 at 9:36 AM, RWB said:

Back to the original subject, please. 

I guess shooting at nuclear power plants isn't soothing the markets.  Gold up another $15 today to $1,950.

This guy is looking for $2,700 in a year.....and $7,400 in 5 years !!!  

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Perfect-Storm-Is-Brewing-In-Gold-Markets.html

From my old colleague, probably the best oil analyst on the Street:

"...In the clearest sign yet that almost all buyers of Russian oil have left the market, the country’s flagship crude was offered on Tuesday at a record discount of $18.60 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. Even at that exceptional discount, several times larger than the usual couple of bucks difference, there were not a single bid for the barrels."

I'm a quality over quantity guy, too.  Of course, my passion is Saints and other gold coins so it stands to reason I am not buying in huge quantities unless PowerBall or MegaMillions hit. 

On 3/2/2022 at 10:26 PM, Conder101 said:

They might not have had the physical license (or they might have had it) but it was known to have been issued.  I knew about it long before the Fenton seizure and trial.

But the government must not have known about it, because once Fenton's lawyer had it, they agreed to split the 1933 Saint.

Can I ask how you and a few others found out about the E-I letter while it appears that the government folks did not ?  Seems to be public knowledge to anybody who looked except the feds.

On 3/2/2022 at 10:26 PM, Conder101 said:

Yes he died maybe 10 years ago or more.  They still recycle his articles from time to time.

Too bad, I came across a few of his articles from NN and they were very good.  Guy had some good stuff.

On 1/15/2022 at 7:02 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

@Lem E

Very brave of you to display this variant.  Can we talk?  Good... I can accept the obverse, but three things killed the reverse: the optics on Monticello: the beveled edges and the fontamania: an upper case O in Of, and a lower case f in five. Other than that I would have gladly met your quite reasonable $7.3 million asking price. 😉 

Has anybody heard from QA ??  

On 3/2/2022 at 7:01 PM, Alex in PA. said:

People talk about these 'Sanctions' as if they were some kind of secret weapon.  There have been 'Sanctions' on Putin ever since George Bush and look how well they have worked.  Why not ask the Ukrainians about 'Sanctions' on Mother Russia.  Europe is STILL buying oil and gas from Russia and no, the Rads didn't turn off the pipeline.  And our great fearful leader still refuses to sanction Russian energy.   GREED has no allies.

We haven't been serious before.  This time the entire world is turning Russia into a pariah state.

Only fear of being imprisoned or shot is causing Putin's oligarch friends to not denounce him and call for a reversal of the invasion.

On 3/2/2022 at 6:58 PM, tj96 said:

Russian oil is junk!  That's why it's cheap.  Not refined well at all, until it gets here.  Why?.....because they (the Russians) care zero/squat about pollution, emissions or the environment!   It burns black in Russia and Europe.  Plus, it's not as efficient as ours.  

They don't control the quality of the oil.  Urals blends are high-sulphur and the market adjusts accordingly:

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

Note that Russian oil trades at a $15/bbl. discount.