GoldFinger1969

Dave, what was the debate in The Numismatist about ?

On 3/10/2022 at 10:05 AM, Oldhoopster said:

Some of the backstory.  V. Kurt has had a beef with RWB since the Langford 1933 double eagle case.  In addition, V. Kurt has strongly contented that the 1933 double eagles were always govt property, while Rodger had been a witness for the Langbords.  A lot of this "discussion" was played out on other coin forums

Every once in a while he gets feisty and takes pot shots a RWB.  Take it for what it's worth.  Now get off Kurt's lawn

Most of us know that.  This isn't about the 1933's...more about his attacks on the worth of research and Roger happens to be one of the best modern numismatic researchers out there. Just because you don't like something doesn't mean it's worthless or not worthy of discussion.  I'm not into 95% of the coins/posts mentioned here but I wouldn't say they are not of value just because they didn't meet my personal threshold for interesting topics.  Someone could say the same thing about my favorites.

I'd be interested in knowing what books or research Kurt likes/repsects because his own coin talk a while back that I saw on the internet from a few years ago was "research."  I liked it even if it wasn't my passion.  He should reciprocate IMO even if it isn't his cup of tea.

Also, Kurt really dislikes anything to do with gold and alot of RWB's research is on gold.

As for Kurt's charitable endeavors.....

On 3/10/2022 at 10:01 AM, RWB said:

During the "gold standard" era, banks did not keep gold on-hand unless required to for reserves or customer convenience. It was, and remains, a dead asset that earns no interest and generates no profit except for speculation and chance. The $400 gold of 40 years ago is now valued at $2,000 - 5-times the dollar value. But, it will not purchase 5-times more -- it will actually purchase much less -- and thus has a negative return. The common "gold-for-food" scenario is a false analogy since small scale real world examples show that barter and trade of necessities quickly overcomes any slight assumed value of gold or any other thing that is not immediately useful.

Roger, I believe you could lend gold out for small rates of interest to those borrowing it for commerce or shorting purposes.

But yes, gold -- like almost all commodities -- does poorly as an investment because too many times it is boom-or-bust and rolling periods of investment returns are negative or lousy for many years.  Then you have a few glorious years like the 1970's and everybody gets sucked in again.

Some dealers know what they are talking about with grading...and some are just dunces running a coin shop. 

And I know that it's impossible to know every price, but when I go to a show or an LCS....and I ask about a very common Morgan or Saint...and the guy has to rush over to his CDN Magazine or other periodical.....wow. 

On 3/9/2022 at 11:57 PM, Woods020 said:

Just to be clear I’m not necessarily being critical of either NGC or PCGS. There are areas each of them does better than the other from a pricing stand point. It’s not that NCG is a loser across the board in any way. 

Agreed...and FWIW, I agree... I do NOT believe NGC is looser but the market TREATS them as such.  Ergo, that is why I made the assumption that there must have been something in the early-days before I was active and before the internet in the 1987-2004 time period that caused the PCGS premium or NGC discount to appear at that time.

It is strange that one has a premium for domestics, one for foreign/ancients...and nobody can really explain WHY or HOW they each came to be.

As I said....the most notorious recent cases of gradeflation -- which should lead to a pricing discount if anything -- seems to be with PCGS for a few coins/threads.  And PCGS/CU got rid of the threads and/or some of the critics involved in them from what I have heard (I've never been a member ATS so I'm just going by what I've read on other sites).

On 3/9/2022 at 11:17 PM, Woods020 said:

I haven’t seen this debate here, atleast not for a long time. Should make for some good conversation. 

You have just unleashed the Dogs of War.  Thanks, Putin !! 

On 3/9/2022 at 11:17 PM, Woods020 said:

1. Do you think it is justified in any way that one TPG graded coins surpasses the other? (Only inclusive of NGC and PCGS) 

I think -- or one would THINK it was the case -- that in the early years of grading that perhaps NGC developed a reputation (fairly or unfairly) as a looser grader.  Or maybe they graded correctly and PCGS was just "tougher."  Or maybe they graded the same but folks paid up more for PCGS labels for whatever reason (more famous founders like Hall and Albanese ?  Better marketing ?  1st mover advantage ?) and thus PCGS could "get away" with a higher grade to justify a higher price via market grading (more common around 2004).

Or this could all be a bunch of baloney, I freely admit. 

On 3/9/2022 at 11:17 PM, Woods020 said:

2. Does anyone disagree there is a disparity in sales prices? 

No, but there are some areas where I feel that if anything NGC does a better job and her coins aren't being rewarded for it...and where PCGS has some notorious overgrading bordering on idiocy (i.e., Franklin Half Dollars).

On 3/9/2022 at 11:17 PM, Woods020 said:

3. Generally speaking it seems NGC wins on early gold, ancients and tokens. PCGS wins elsewhere. Most of what I deal with I discount NGC graded coins slightly. Agree/Disagree?

Generally agree.  PCGS premiums or even in domestic coins.... but NGC ahead in foreigns/ancients.  I also think PMG (NGC affiliate) ahead of PCGS and Legacy in currency.

On 3/9/2022 at 11:17 PM, Woods020 said:

4. What historically caused the disparity? Is there any actual history or it’s just one of those things that we just can’t explain?

Like I said, maybe the vets here can chime in.  But maybe pre-internet in the first 10 years of the TPGs NGC graded looser or PCGS harder and they developed a reputation.  When market grading got more common about 2004 it seems that is when the PCGS premium expanded or was more noticeable (by then, the internet had also been around for a few years and word spread easily among dealers and savvy collectors/buyers).

I wonder if NGC coins 20+ years ago also traded at a PREMIUM for foreign/ancients at the same time her domestics traded at a discount ?

I would say that for me I also wasn't crazy about some of the older NGC holders compared to their PCGS counterparts.  But I love the current ones from NGC more than PCGS, FWIW, especially the modern labels.

As I alluded to earlier, I think if anything you can make the case that the most recent egregious gradeflations involve PCGS.  The notorious PCGS Franklin Gradeflation thread over at CU (affiliated with PCGS) -- which apparently may have been the reason so many who posted there got banned from the site -- is one example. 

I should note this:  we are able to have this discussion here at the NGC Forums, even while noting their shortcomings.  I daresay this thread would probably NOT be allowed -- or would be censored and/or cut short maybe with suspensions/bannings (from what I have heard) -- by PCGS/CU.  One reason why I do NOT believe PCGS should trade at the premium is that I do believe that NGC graders are pretty much up to par with PCGS folks and I believe that NGC's more open-discussion policy is proof that they have nothing to hide or fear.  Quite frankly, open discussion and criticism should not be feared since you probably have back-and-forth with people both criticizing and defending you.  If that scares you, then the naysayers probably have the stronger argument.

Wow, that's some error.  What exactly happened to this "struck through" that looks like a huge gouge ?

On 3/9/2022 at 6:36 PM, Alex in PA. said:

Roger, I wish I new.  I have looked at the Gold a couple of times but since I bought that Silver I put it away and never looked at and never bought anymore.   IMO a waste of money.

That's one reason why the silver I buy is usually a nice coin or commemorative.  I especially like the Saint-Gaudens National Park commemoratives.

I wish I could afford the gold, but the silver is a nice consolation prize. 

On 3/9/2022 at 5:13 PM, RWB said:

But, how much have you lost is real value by holding a dead asset?

I think -- I HOPE -- most people consider it "disaster insurance" rather than an investment. 

Plus, you have the enjoyment factor if it is coins and numismatics. 

Man, I tell you...going through this 1950 auction catalog.....even with 95% of the coins foreign to me....it's like opening up a Time Capsule.

Did anybody here know a Henry Grunthal ?

Wait a second....$2,800 for an MS-67 Saint, even a 1908 NM ?    

That can't be right.....I see 62's and 63's for that price, maybe a 64.

https://www.apmex.com/product/64861/1908-20-saint-gaudens-gold-no-motto-ms-67-ngc-wells-fargo

67's are $7K.  High for what I see elsewhere. 

On 3/9/2022 at 12:28 PM, Alex in PA. said:

Bought my gold in 1980.  If it hits $7,000.00 I might sell.

BIG moves that year....means you could have bought at $800 or $350 !! 

On 3/9/2022 at 12:30 PM, Alex in PA. said:

Thanks very much.  The price gets better after MS 66 and up.

Is that your coin, Alex ?

What do you mean "the price gets better after MS-66 and up" ??

Down about $60 earlier today but bouncing back to down $45 and back over $2,000.

Gold reminds me of a beachball being pressed under the water....it WANTS to go higher.  I've seen forecasts for $2,400 or so later this year and all the major players -- central banks, emerging market citizens and banks, SWFs, institutions -- are all buyers.

I saw $7,000 in 5 years as a headline-grabbing forecast but I would give that a 25% chance of happening, up from 5% or less last year.

On 3/9/2022 at 6:39 AM, Alex in PA. said:

Maybe one of yours?  1908 Wells Fargo No Motto NGC MS 65.

Not bad for a 1908 WF NM. 

On 3/9/2022 at 10:03 AM, MarkFeld said:

They are tiny tokens (not rare coins) of very little gold, by weight.

I did see prices all over the map for this and couldn't do an exact match-up in the HA database.  Surprised "gold" is on the label if it's not 100% gold.  Makes tracking past comparables difficult, for sure.

Sorry for the error, Woods.

On 3/9/2022 at 7:13 AM, MarkFeld said:

That sounds way too high to me and I see that Kentucky Mike has confirmed that. Where did you obtain the figures you posted?

Heritage past sales, Mark.  But I couldn't find an exact match so that's why I was cautious in my post.

Still....if this is gold, $216 sounds low, no ?  Sounds like it is selling for melt value only which is rare for sub-ounce coins of any type regardless of condition.

On 3/9/2022 at 5:17 AM, MarkFeld said:

I was grading at NGC at the time the 1908’s surfaced, so I saw very large quantities of them. If I remember correctly, they were initially submitted to NGC for grading before any of them eventually made their way to PCGS.

Mark, do you recall when the industry heard of the discovery if it was public that 19,900 coins had been found or if a more general "large hoard" was used to describe them ?

Obviously, from a pricing perspective, you wouldn't want it known that thousands of new supply are going to hit at each grade level from MS-65 and up.

Is the coin -- and the slab -- authentic ?  If so, coin in that condition without the PL or DPL indicator should be worth anywhere from $1,500 - $3,500.  But I am NOT familiar with this coin, just going by past sales.

Ah...Saints, my true passion.   First, I noticed a "Rare St. Gaudens Proof Double Eagle" headline.  This is an alleged Proof MCMVII High Relief Saint.  So the term "proof" was used formally in catalogs like this prior to NGC creating them on the label.  The commentary notes that the proof "came from the widow of a gentleman associated with the mint in 1907."  I think this could be Barber Coins, I have to check RWB's Saints book.  The widow had 2 of these Proof High Reliefs...and "the $10 rolled edge with periods and the wire edge with periods."

Kosoff & Kreisberg noted that the coin was rarer than the MCMVII UHR which was "valued at $3,000."  But despite a $1,000 estimate the "Proof" HR Saint only sold for $825.   A pair of MCMVII HR's (wire & flat) were estimated to sell for $125 each but sold for $117.50 and $112, respectively.

The 1921 Saint estimated to go for $750 but nabbed $575.  A 1929 Saint estimated at $500 but got $300.  Both coins "Uncirculated."

A 1924-S Saint is called "the rarest of all double eagles" (did K&K know something about the 1933's ?  )...estimated for $2,250, went for $2,000.  K&K said it was "the best" they've seen.  A 1930 Saint estimated at $475 went for $385.  The "Excessively Rare" (they like that phrase !  ) 1926-D Saint went for $2,000 with an estimate of $2,500.  1925 Saint Uncirculated went for $560 after a $650 estimate.  1931-D Saint was one of the few coins that went for a higher amount than expected:  $1,325 vs. $1,100 estimate.  

Remember...excluding the 1933 Saint (the confiscations had started)...the rarest at the time of this auction were the 1924-S, 1926-D, and 1926-S.

Cheapest Saints listed as "Very Fine" and considered commons was about $44.  

Most coins, Saints and all others, went for LESS than the estimates.  I wonder if the outbreak of the Korean War a few weeks later impacted bidding.

The Menjou Catalog (1950):  Just got this beaut earlier today.  Adolphe Menjou was an actor from the Silent Era and The Golden Era of films.  Wow, talk about a trip down memory lane.  Created to sell part of his large collection, the catalog had a Quintuple Stella 1879.....1841 Quarter Eagle....1815 Half Eagle....1875 $3 gold.....Trade Dollars of 1884 and 1885.

Abner Kreisberg and Abe Kosoff prepared the catalog and oversaw the auction.  You veteran guys must know those names.

Total raised was $134,627.   2,200 items for sale.....the Quintuple Stella was estimated to sell for $5,000 but went for $3,400.  The Trade Dollars of 1884 and 1885 were estimated to sell for $1,000 and $2,000 respectively....actually sold for $765 and $1,350.

More to follow......

On 3/8/2022 at 12:42 PM, tj96 said:

And silver!!  I'll be ready to dump my junk silver soon!!

Both Gold and Silver reversed on news of a potential end to the conflict.  Stocks went up, PM's down.

To be continued....

The Wells Fargo "Kink":  It's somewhat strange but the WF Hoard did not add linearly to the high-grade 1908 NM's.  The hoard totally dominates the MS-69, 68, and 67 grade level and the huge increase from the WF Hoard is why there are price drops at those grade levels versus other MS-67 commons.

While the numbers of MS-66's and 65's were swollen by the WF Hoard, the numbers from other commons like 1924's still dwarfs them.  So the price discount there for the 1908 NM's, even with the WF Hoard, is not anywhere near that for the MS-67's and MS-68's. 

The price grids in the Burdette Saints book and recent and historical auction prices shed more light on these interesting pricing trends.

Any dealers here ?  Would love to know what you saw in-person in the mid-to-late 1990's when the WF Hoard hit.

Up another $65 to $2,060 or so....it's a runaway freight train. 

On 1/27/2022 at 10:51 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Prices At The Superb Gem Level:  Was thinking a bit about a post I noted on another thread here in the forums.  MS-67's Saints are selling for $12,500 give-or-take for 1924's and about 10% higher, ~$14,000 for 1928's.  Both are considered commons and plentiful in MS-65 and not that rare in MS-67, too.  1923-D's, another "common" coin, also in the mid-teens or thereabouts for an MS-67.

However...there's a big dropoff for a coin that has lots more in the Superb Gem category and plenty (but not as many as the 1924 or 1927) in the Gem category, the 1908 No Motto.  It sells for about half the price of the 1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928.  

Roger's Estimates for the coins are listed first and then I have both the latest PCGS and NGC Population Census for the year.  I have no idea really how to account for double-counting and crackouts by just adding PCGS and NGC totals to one another.  Feel free to chime in. 

1908 No Motto:  MS-67/68 @ 2,001 (both rays) and MS65/66 @ 19,400.    PCGS @ 1,027 and 40,745.....NGC @ 1,360 and 21,094.

1923-D:   MS-67/68 @ 90 and MS-65/66 @ 5,500.   PCGS @ 90 and 4,753........NGC @ 57 and 2,679.

1924:   MS-67/68 @ 225....and MS-65/66 @ 79,500.  PCGS @ 135 and 64,350....NGC @ 220 and 4,2841.

1927:   MS-67/68 @ 60 and 48,000 for 65-66.  PCGS @ 36 and 39,601.....NGC @ 62 and 24,830.

1928  MS-67/68 @ 140.......MS-65/66 @ 16,200.    PCGS @ 117 and 15,112.....NGC @ 103 and 8,483.

You can clearly see the huge dropoff at the Super Gem (MS67 and up) in the 4 other commons (1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928) compared to the 1908.  Hundreds available there in total for all 4 but a few thousand of the 1908 NM's.  Ironically, the 1924 and 1927 dwarf the 1908 NM at the Gem level (MS65-66) by a huge factor, the Wells Fargo Hoard really skewed the totals at that 67 level in favor of the 1908 NM.

Forgot to add that 1923-D's and 1927's -- which are considered common Type coins in lower grades -- sell for about $16,000 and $18,000...give-or-take.

That huge increase in MS67/68's for the 1908 NM really lowers the price by more than 50% from the cheapest other 67's.  Estimates I have seen are that there are definitely a few hundred serious Saint collectors who want to pay up for high-quality coins and are into registry listings.  With 2,000 (or more) 67/68 coins available, you can fill that demand plus lots of others who normally wouldn't pay up for a condition rarity grade.

Fascinating to see how price rises parabolically when the population tails off....and conversely, see a big drop in the same grade when you switch Type coins from rare to scarce.