Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[RAJ on COINS]

9 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I contacted Whitman about when we might expect an update but no word -- maybe you can reach out to them, Ross, if you have contacts. 

Dave is getting up there (age)... Not sure how Whitman will cope when he leaves the scene.  His contributions to the hobby (and probably Whitman's bottom line) are enormous.

My guess is they have a schedule for updates that is fairly arbitrary.

The new Cherrypickers' will be the first edition without input from J.T. Stanton (the "S" in FS numbers) who passed away in 2018.  Bill also is getting on in years.

Jeff Garrett seems to be Whitman's heir apparent author/editor for a number of their publications, the Red Book being the obvious example.

I don't have much direct contact beyond Bill and Dennis, and just provide information as a contributor when asked.   

[RAJ on COINS]

20 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Hope you can do the presentation at some coin shows.  And I hope I'm there. 

I hope so too and thanks for the support!  

[GoldFinger1969]

40 minutes ago, Ross J said:

My guess is they have a schedule for updates that is fairly arbitrary.

I know there are fewer DE collectors than Peace and Morgan collectors....but still....NO 2nd Edition going on 17 years ?  They have to know if they did another edition, they'd not only get new orders but anybody who bought the 1st Edition is very likely to buy the 2nd, assuming it has new chapters, some new commentary, and updated pricing which they usually do.

The GUIDE BOOK also fills a niche for more casual collectors who don't want to spend the $$$ and time on Roger's much more detailed, time-consuming book.  And there aren't many other beginner/intermediate books on Double Eagles out there, quite frankly.  Not the case with Morgan and Peace Dollars and other coins where there are dozens of books.

I wish I had talked to the Whitman booth people at FUN 2020.  Maybe next January. 

Edited March 26, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

2 hours ago, Ross J said:

Not crazy enough to try to try to upstage Dave Bowers, Roger, or Jeff Ambio!  In any case, I am carrying their messages essentially and have little new to say beyond personal opinions.  There's a reason why CoinWorld will print dozens of my Guest Commentaries but not ask me to write articles!  (Other than that they would have to pay me. ) 

Ross is building on his investigations, acquired knowledge and new information to present material in a clear, accessible manner - and to a potentially wide audience. That was part of my goal in preparing the SG book in content and form, even though it differs from what is considered "typical."

Ross, Goldfinger, and others will continue to simplify, clarify and expand as time passes....Heck, maybe I won't be around to contribute to the 2nd Edition - we don't know? I am very pleased with the book's reception and the general understanding that it is "a start" not an end. (A Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle article will be out soon by another writer.)

Edited March 26, 2021 by RWB

[RAJ on COINS]

59 minutes ago, RWB said:

Ross is building on his investigations, acquired knowledge and new information to present material in a clear, accessible manner - and to a potentially wide audience.

Thanks Roger.  The "wider audience" is precisely my target.

 I do think that collectors, regardless of what they can afford to own, can take enormous pleasure collecting "experiences" with coins.  I will never own a complete set of Saints, but I have seen  a complete set up close (at one of the coin shows) and also seen at least some of the langboard 33's (at coin shows) as well as the Farouk legal to own '33 (at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York a decade ago).  Have also been to the Smithsonian and seen their goodies.  Have also looked at hundreds of Saints at bourse tables and in lot viewing rooms.

My personal collection, by contrast consists of examples of just 17 different date/mintmark combinations, only about a third of the set!  There is a much wider audience of collectors interested in these coins than there are active set collectors, which is why knowing and talking about them is so rewarding.  Just because the coins are generally expensive doesn't mean they can't be enjoyed on some level by all of us.  Their history, and legacy, and especially their artistic designs, by intention, belong to all Americans.     

[GoldFinger1969]

Roger, this goes to that table in your book which states that it was THEORETICALLY possible that tens of millions of Saints were still out there that escaped melting.  It's from CoinWEEK a year ago, Scott Travers talking:

"There’s the question of how many coins are still out there. Some leading experts who are very familiar with overseas quantities have told me that in France, there’s well over 10 million $20 gold pieces, lower Mint State grades, some about uncirculated, but many Mint State coins, nonetheless. If you have 10 million coins, somebody even mentioned to me, there might be 15 million coins. If you have 10 million coins or eight million coins, with this type of an overhang on the market, you have mostly Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle and Liberty Head $20s, you’re going to see for the foreseeable future, very low premiums on these coins."

https://coinweek.com/coinweek-podcast/coinweek-podcast-127-coin-market-point-counterpoint-with-scott-travers/

I always thought the overseas supply was much less because the big hoards of the 1950's and 1960's have dwindled and I don't know of a non-shipwreck hoard of note since the Wells Fargo Hoard of 1996 and before that the Central American (El Salvador) Hoard of 1983, which saw 19,900 and 47,000 coins, respectively hit the market.

That number for France is hard to believe since I believe there are only 70 million people in France and the population over 50 is only about 15 million (much less as you age it).

Still...I've seen comments about Liberty and Saints coming over drip-drip-drip from multiple sources, so unless they are all getting their information from the same source and/or are talking to one another, there could be something going on here.  We really need to see someone investigate this and ask where the original coins are coming from in France and Europe and elswhere:  individuals who inherited the coins....banks....government agencies.

Then we can probably determine if there are thousands of these coins coming out over the next 20 years (not much) or millions (a deluge).

[RWB]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Roger, this goes to that table in your book which states that it was THEORETICALLY possible that tens of millions of Saints were still out there that escaped melting.  It's from CoinWEEK a year ago, Scott Travers talking:

"There’s the question of how many coins are still out there. Some leading experts who are very familiar with overseas quantities have told me that in France, there’s well over 10 million $20 gold pieces, lower Mint State grades, some about uncirculated, but many Mint State coins, nonetheless. If you have 10 million coins, somebody even mentioned to me, there might be 15 million coins. If you have 10 million coins or eight million coins, with this type of an overhang on the market, you have mostly Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle and Liberty Head $20s, you’re going to see for the foreseeable future, very low premiums on these coins."

https://coinweek.com/coinweek-podcast/coinweek-podcast-127-coin-market-point-counterpoint-with-scott-travers/

I always thought the overseas supply was much less because the big hoards of the 1950's and 1960's have dwindled and I don't know of a non-shipwreck hoard of note since the Wells Fargo Hoard of 1996 and before that the Central American (El Salvador) Hoard of 1983, which saw 19,900 and 47,000 coins, respectively hit the market.

That number for France is hard to believe since I believe there are only 70 million people in France and the population over 50 is only about 15 million (much less as you age it).

Still...I've seen comments about Liberty and Saints coming over drip-drip-drip from multiple sources, so unless they are all getting their information from the same source and/or are talking to one another, there could be something going on here.  We really need to see someone investigate this and ask where the original coins are coming from in France and Europe and elswhere:  individuals who inherited the coins....banks....government agencies.

Then we can probably determine if there are thousands of these coins coming out over the next 20 years (not much) or millions (a deluge).

...and not a verifiable source among them. "Very low premiums" are caused by limited demand, not any so-called "overhang" ....or maybe they are "orphans."

Lots of things are "theoretically possible" but we have to look at deal data and objective reporting. The Tripartite Gold Commission numbers are through and give us a clear baseline for determining what was looted from France and other banking systems. Coins melted and cast into bars in Sweden, Germany, and elsewhere are less well defined, but those "coins" are no longer "coins" so they cannot overhang anything.

The Travers, Roberts, and comments/similar claims by others are precisely why I check them only AFTER all the other research, and then place very little authority in them.

Edited March 26, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

8 minutes ago, RWB said:

...and not a verifiable source among them. "Very low premiums" are caused by limited demand, not any so-called "overhand" ....or maybe they are "orphans."

Premiums historically are high when the gold price is low and get lower as the gold price goes higher.

Then...when gold begins it's usual long descent down....the premiums, sticky at first, tend to dissipate.

You can see it all here more or less (not a perfect relationship, not an R-squared of 1.0, but a pretty tight general correlation):

Edited March 26, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

11 minutes ago, RWB said:

...and not a verifiable source among them.

So you don't believe substantial coins are out there....or you just want to see more details and names willing to be quoted on the record ?

I'm doubtful that the coins exist in that size....but I keep reading from various sources that supply is coming.  Just need it quantified and some guestimate as to the inventory it is coming from.  I know France had 2 horrific experiences in WW I and WWII and that changes ones attitude on things like savings and gold.....still....it's 2021 not 1951 or even 1961 so I want to see if there are a million French adults with a few coins each or just a few thousand.  Ditto for any larger hoards held by banks or government agencies or hidden from the Nazis or even French Socialists.

Edited March 26, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

2 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Premiums historically are high when the gold price is low and get lower as the gold price goes higher.

Then...when gold begins it's usual long descent down....the premiums, sticky at first, tend to dissipate.

You can see it all here more or less (not a perfect relationship, not an R-squared of 1.0, but a pretty tight general correlation):

The table uses two differing scales for price and premium. You will get an accurate pair of graphs by using only the premium % on a linear scale.

[RWB]

4 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

  12 minutes ago, RWB said:

...and not a verifiable source among them.

This is the key statement. It does not matter what I "believe." It only matters what is real and can be verified. Not one of the writers mentioned, or their ilk, provide any independently verifiable data. Thus, they are not reliable or trusted sources.

Note that central bank assets are not typically related to population, except for current accounts, although I understand your reasoning.

Edited March 26, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

1 minute ago, RWB said:

This is the key statement. It does not matter what I "believe." It only matters what is real and can be verified. Not one of the writers mentioned, or their ilk, provide any independently verifiable data. Thus, they are not reliable or trusted sources.

Understood....but we keep hearing about supply coming from Europe....Saints and Libertys....they're not saying it's coming from American holders....from estates or children/grandchildren getting the coins from old folks who had the coins for half a century or more....it'd be easy to lie or make up stuff about small quantities which these appear to be....so I see no incentive to just make-up stuff that they're coming from France or Europe.

That said...I agree....we need more data and for this to be quantified.

[RWB]

Drama sells. Truth dispels.

Guessing and making dramatic claims bring attention. It makes the speaker seem authoritative, and to have "inside" information no one else has. They feel important and are asked to repeat their claims for dramatic effect. This similar cadre will boast about anything, anytime - and continue to do so until it is no longer profitable. Then, they will move on to antique Beanie Babies held in a secret stash in the pyramid of Pharaoh Menkaure.

Ask for the full story of the "Wells Fargo" double eagles. You will get silence. The truth would break the dramatic mystery.

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, RWB said:

Drama sells. Truth dispels.

I like that....gotta remember that one !! 

1 hour ago, RWB said:

Ask for the full story of the "Wells Fargo" double eagles. You will get silence. The truth would break the dramatic mystery.

Yup....not like it's The Manhattan Project.  Clearly, someone did something they shouldn't have....or a bribe was paid...or someone got cut-out of the windfall.  We still don't even know what country they came from.

Heck, their marketing stuff worked...until a few years ago, I had always assumed the coins were actually found in an old Wells Fargo branch.  

[RAJ on COINS]

Unfortunately there are lots of myths in the hobby promulgated by different individuals with various agendas, usually profit being the main one.  Clearly one cannot believe everything one hears.

[GoldFinger1969]

3 minutes ago, Ross J said:

Unfortunately there are lots of myths in the hobby promulgated by different individuals with various agendas, usually profit being the main one.  Clearly one cannot believe everything one hears.

Ross, I was suspicious -- even contacted one of the authors and asked for details.  I am just saying I am seeing the same 1-liners coming from different authors/collectors/dealers.  Maybe it all traces to 1 single people who doesn't know what the heck they are talking about.

I hope others with better contacts than me can explore this.

[RAJ on COINS]

I would think most of what was overseas has been repatriated by now, since there were numerous dealers chasing those coins down for decades.  Doesn't mean there aren't still some over there.  New arrivals can perturb the market for sure.

I am getting tired of dealers manufacturing a snooty ($$$) sounding name and adding "hoard" as a suffix.  The "Saddle Ridge Hoard"  could just as easily been the "Tin Can Collection"  

 

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, Ross J said:

I would think most of what was overseas has been repatriated by now, since there were numerous dealers chasing those coins down for decades.  Doesn't mean there aren't still some over there.  New arrivals can perturb the market for sure.

That's what I though, too.  As I understand it, this is sort of the "Drips-and-Drabs" hoards where a large, difuse base of coin holders -- older Europeans -- may hold a few coins each because of the horrific upheavels of the last 110 years. 

Tapping a few coins here and there would not have been worthwhile for those buyers from Paramount etc. al who wanted to go to banks and find 50 or 100 or 500 or 1,000 or more coins.  At least that's how I see it.

I can see I am going to be re-reading Roger's SAINTS book chapter on total coin survivors this weekend.  

[GoldFinger1969]

Jeff Garrett, who is an author and columnist and also workd at NGC (I think), also wrote last year about gold coins coming in from Europe:

https://coinweek.com/us-coins/jeff-garrett-us-gold-coins-coming-home/

"In the last few years, the amount of US gold coins arriving from overseas sources has risen dramatically. It’s hard to know the exact number of coins entering the market as these are closely held secrets by those handling the coins. Large numbers of any coin hoard must be handled carefully to minimize the impact on the marketplace."

 

[RWB]

As usual. No verifiable data or meaningful information. The approach is: "It's a closely held secret -- BUT -- I'm going to let you in on a little of this fabulous secret....blah, blah, blah....."

This part is really funny: "In the last few years, the amount of US gold coins arriving from overseas sources has risen dramatically..." Let's continue that thought with: " Why, just a few years ago there were 100 or 200 a year. Now, it's more than 300 -- a dramatic 30% to 60%+ increase. But the exact number is a secret --- shhhhhh!"

[RWB]

I have no gripe with any of the mentioned people as individuals, authors, etc. What they say and how they communicate is their "style" - but it is the gullible collectors and others who repeat empty verbiage, and who seem to think there is any value in an 'empty glass' that is the real concern. We, as parts of a large consumer society, are inured to interpreting empty statements in an uncritical manner. The laundry soap box says "NEW! IMPROVED!" Huh? What is new? What has been improved? Compared to their product, or a competitor's product, or to pounding shirts with a rock in the river? We people invent what we want to hear, and bovine-like ask no questions until we are inside the metal brace with an iron rod at the back of our heads. Smile.

My personal approach - which some in the business/hobby do not like - is to ask questions, then follow-up questions, then independently research, then analyze and finally publish the best information I can produce - it might not be perfect - it might even be unintentionally flawed - but it is what the data says independent of sales hype.

[GoldFinger1969]

17 minutes ago, RWB said:

As usual. No verifiable data or meaningful information. The approach is: "It's a closely held secret -- BUT -- I'm going to let you in on a little of this fabulous secret....blah, blah, blah....."

This part is really funny: "In the last few years, the amount of US gold coins arriving from overseas sources has risen dramatically..." Let's continue that thought with: " Why, just a few years ago there were 100 or 200 a year. Now, it's more than 300 -- a dramatic 30% to 60%+ increase. But the exact number is a secret --- shhhhhh!"

Fair points, Roger.  But at the same time, it could be an increase from 1,000 coins a year to 3,000 -- we have no freakin' idea.

I'm reaching out to the numismatic writers and columnists asking them to do a piece or two that really focuses on this so we can know if it's an extra 100 coins a year or thousands of coins a year.

[GoldFinger1969]

8 minutes ago, RWB said:

I have no gripe with any of the mentioned people as individuals, authors, etc. What they say and how they communicate is their "style" - but it is the gullible collectors and others who repeat empty verbiage, and who seem to think there is any value in an 'empty glass' that is the real concern. We, as parts of a large consumer society, are inured to interpreting empty statements in an uncritical manner. The laundry soap box says "NEW! IMPROVED!" Huh? What is new? What has been improved? Compared to their product, or a competitor's product, or to pounding shirts with a rock in the river? We people invent what we want to hear, and bovine-like ask no questions until we are inside the metal brace with an iron rod at the back of our heads. Smile.

My personal approach - which some in the business/hobby do not like - is to ask questions, then follow-up questions, then independently research, then analyze and finally publish the best information I can produce - it might not be perfect - it might even be unintentionally flawed - but it is what the data says independent of sales hype.

Unlike the telemarketer infomercials, these folks all do not seem to have a vested interest in this information being true or false -- so why mention it, UNLESS you believe it is relevant to supply/demand/price dynamics for Double Eagle coins.

And you are right Roger -- we need to know if in the past it was normal for about 200 coins a year to come over from Europe and all of a sudden it is 400.  Big % increase but not a big increase in supply.  Except....

If the supply includes some semi-rare coins in a particularly condition rare grade, then you could have a situation where 100 coins that are 1924 Saints doesn't matter....but a few 1908-S's or similar coins in MS63 do matter.

Edited March 27, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Alot of these comments BTW are from dealers who double as columnists.  I am guessing they have regular connections who might sell them 1 or 2 or 3 coins a month or quarter or whatever.  Now, all of a sudden, they might have 10 or 12 or 15.....the dealer asks how they got so many, and the seller says that he or someone he knows has an overseas contact who every few months will call and let them know how many individuals sold him/her Saints or Libertys (or Indian Heads) and how much for the dealer to buy them.  Meanwhile, the basic "supply from overseas" story leaks out and voila. 

I'd be shocked if this involved bags of coins as those probably dried up decades ago.  That Lanson Wine Hoard from a decade or so ago -- about 500 coins -- was the biggest that I've heard of, or at least got publicity.

Edited March 27, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

There are probably also a number of shipwrecked ships laden with gold which have thus far eluded detection.  The exact number and approximate locations are known but are not publicized for obvious reasons.

[GoldFinger1969]

27 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

There are probably also a number of shipwrecked ships laden with gold which have thus far eluded detection.  The exact number and approximate locations are known but are not publicized for obvious reasons.

We know pretty much all shipwrecks since 1850 or even 1800.  Before that, very murky.

But since we are talking about Liberty DE's (1850) and Saints (1907), no shipwrecks will be releasing any large sums of coins.  Maybe some Liberty's from an un-found shipwreck that happened in the 1800's but the biggies -- Brother Jonathan, SS Central America, etc. -- have already been found.

Edited March 27, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

Speculation is not truth.

If the columnists actually have verified quantities, then they should say so, or at least say they refuse to tell us chickens.

[Rollo Tomassi]

53 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

There are probably also a number of shipwrecked ships laden with gold which have thus far eluded detection.  The exact number and approximate locations are known but are not publicized for obvious reasons.

It's probably safe to assume there are none on that ship stuck in the Suez Canal.    

[GoldFinger1969]

1 minute ago, RWB said:

Speculation is not truth.  If the columnists actually have verified quantities, then they should say so, or at least say they refuse to tell us chickens.

I have no problem with that.  OTOH, they may be sworn to secrecy....they may not know the exact or general numbers but know the DIRECTION of supply (up big  ).

But alot of this is because it might be legitimately very sensitive, Roger.  If the supply was just generic commons like 1924's, then details on supply might not matter since only the premiums for those woudl be affected which isn't much.  OTOH, if it is semi-rare coins that already sell for 200% premium in MS and 100% premium in AU and you know there are lots of AU coins available, you don't want to let people know you think that you can bring back a few dozen a year to a population census that is only 100 or 200 coins right now.

[RWB]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I have no problem with that.  OTOH, they may be sworn to secrecy....they may not know the exact or general numbers but know the DIRECTION of supply (up big  ).

But alot of this is because it might be legitimately very sensitive, Roger.  If the supply was just generic commons like 1924's, then details on supply might not matter since only the premiums for those woudl be affected which isn't much.  OTOH, if it is semi-rare coins that already sell for 200% premium in MS and 100% premium in AU and you know there are lots of AU coins available, you don't want to let people know you think that you can bring back a few dozen a year to a population census that is only 100 or 200 coins right now.

I have doubts about any of this being "sensitive" in the sense of causing harm to innocent people -- well, except for the coin suckers. Even with honestly rare coins such as 1927-D DE, post distribution full disclosure would help -- but that never happens. It's about manipulation with nebulous labels, innuendo and maybe some selected lies.

I've stated my views very clearly in previous posts. No need to keep repeating. Anyone who wants to "buy the lie" can do so at their risk.