Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[VKurtB]

I think that on some coins, population reports may be several hundred percent off, such as those issues in which borderline grade coins are a fairly high percentage of the reported population, and the price “delta” is high among adjacent grades, what I call the “hockey stick” point on the price vs. grade graph. The incentive is to keep resubmitting. 

[GoldFinger1969]

37 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

I think that on some coins, population reports may be several hundred percent off, such as those issues in which borderline grade coins are a fairly high percentage of the reported population, and the price “delta” is high among adjacent grades, what I call the “hockey stick” point on the price vs. grade graph. The incentive is to keep resubmitting. 

But the pop census won't go up if someone tries to get a higher grade 20 times and it fails every time.  Only successful crack-outs go up a grade or get a "+" or "*".

I'd be surprised if any year or mintmark were off by over 100% -- not shocked, but surprised.  Liberty and Saint DE's are getting hit by "creeping hoards" from Europe (according to what I read), I would think if the population had falsely inflated because of crack-outs/resubmittances, that you'd see prices lower from dealers who realize prices are out of whack if the numbes are going up (but not because of real supply from Europe, from inflated numbers from TPGs).

[RWB]

No one submits a coin for a down-grade; further skewing "grades" in an unaccountable manner.

[GoldFinger1969]

5 hours ago, RWB said:

No one submits a coin for a down-grade; further skewing "grades" in an unaccountable manner.

Except the owner of that 1927-D Saint who wanted a CAC sticker and accepted MS65+ and CAC..... over MS66 !!!!!  

Edited April 10, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

2 hours ago, RWB said:

No one submits a coin for a down-grade; further skewing "grades" in an unaccountable manner.

not correct......many lo ball collectors do this all the time....

[GoldFinger1969]

51 minutes ago, zadok said:

not correct......many lo ball collectors do this all the time....

What's a "lo ball collector ?"  Why would they do it ? 

At least the 1927-D Saint owner was clear....he wanted a 1927-D with a CAC sticker and was willing to give up 1/2 grade to get it.

Edited April 9, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

1 hour ago, zadok said:

not correct......many lo ball collectors do this all the time....

The proportion of "low ball" collectors is very small when compared to normal.

[RWB]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Except the owner of that 1927-D Saint who wanted a CAC sticker and accepted MS65+CAC over MS66 !!!!!  

The coin is so rare that whatever the slab says hardly matters.

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, RWB said:

The coin is so rare that whatever the slab says hardly matters.

Agreed.....and yet someone who could spend $2,000,000 on the coin wanted that particular label. 

[Henri Charriere]

3 hours ago, RWB said:

The proportion of "low ball" collectors is very small when compared to normal.

But "low-ball" collectors are a nebulous fraternity.  How does one even begin to determine how many there are?  There are a lot of coins unaccounted for.  What exactly is the "norm"?

[GoldFinger1969]

Low-ball collectors are.......? 

[Fenntucky Mike]

9 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Low-ball collectors are.......? 

People who collect examples like this.

They are looking for HEAVILY circulated coins in the lowest possible grades (no details grades) that are still identifiable. Here's an example of a lowball set https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetListing.aspx?PeopleSetID=304222&Ranking=all . I'm not so sure lowball collectors are cracking out coins and resubmitting them in great numbers but it does happen. A collector of this type, in Saint Double Eagles, would be rare and not enough to skew the numbers in any meaningful way.

14 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Except the owner of that 1927-D Saint who wanted a CAC sticker and accepted MS65+ and CAC..... over MS66 !!!!!  

Was this arranged, or was the coin actually over graded?

 

[RWB]

RE: The MCMVII double eagle, above. I've seen circulated HR-DE and this coin does not have a similar wear pattern. Specifically, there is too much detail loss in protected areas, and the overall surfaces do not show abrasions typical of circulated DE. Likewise, the uniformity of detail is inconsistent with coins that missed one of the three necessary blows. Not comfortable assigning a "grade" to that piece.

[zadok]

13 hours ago, RWB said:

The proportion of "low ball" collectors is very small when compared to normal.

"very small" is not the same as "no one"......not correct still stands....

[RWB]

7 minutes ago, zadok said:

"very small" is not the same as "no one"......not correct still stands....

Nope....read "very small" as "insignificant" for the stated purposes.

[zadok]

1 hour ago, RWB said:

Nope....read "very small" as "insignificant" for the stated purposes.

deflection.....typical

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, Fenntucky Mike said:

Was this arranged, or was the coin actually over graded?

Arranged, and basically the owner was told by CAC/Albanese that it could not grade CAC at MS66 but 65+ it would.

I believe I read it in CoinWeek, if you want I'll look for the article.  It was probably a review/comparision of all the 1927-D's.

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, RWB said:

RE: The MCMVII double eagle, above. I've seen circulated HR-DE and this coin does not have a similar wear pattern. Specifically, there is too much detail loss in protected areas, and the overall surfaces do not show abrasions typical of circulated DE. Likewise, the uniformity of detail is inconsistent with coins that missed one of the three necessary blows. Not comfortable assigning a "grade" to that piece.

You're saying it's a fake that has been "worn down" to look circulated ?

[RWB]

49 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

You're saying it's a fake that has been "worn down" to look circulated ?

I'm noting certain inconsistencies with the premise of natural circulation.

[GoldFinger1969]

Between The Wars (and how to read this book ! ) :  The SAINTS book has a couple of very interesting chapters in-between the chapters on the 1916-S and the 1920 Saints, which I am re-hitting this weekend.  No Saint-Gaudens coins were produced from 1917-19, as World War I raged.  Chapters of interest here include:

• Post War:  The Roaring Twenties 1920-29
• Cracks and Collapsing Dies, Double Eagles - 1920's (fascinating)
• Gold Coin Production - 1920's

I found these chapters and some of the stories and facts contained superlative.  And some of the themes of these chapters are re-hit within the Commentary and other sections later on during the yearly and mintmark reviews.  There are more chapters like those above on various topics interspersed between reviews of Saint-Gaudens coins.

Re-reading these chapters, I realized something:  I may have rushed my inital read-through of this book, and for those of you who haven't yet read it or might be planning on reading it, my comments here might be useful.  Basically, I think I was too focused on "getting through" the 640-plus pages of the book instead of absorbing and highlighting key sections of interst to me.  I think I should have wrote down key sentences, and paragraphs of interest along with their associated facts....this would have made more of each chapter "stand out" once I finished the book.  

For instance....I am interested in hoards, and I recently went over every single year and mintmark in the book and highlighted the hoard impact and finds for that particular Saint.  I wrote them all down into Word and now have a PDF of the hoards on my smarpthone (similar to the Heritage descriptions for high-end Saints along with Akers comments).   Had I wrote down the hoard information -- among other interesting facts -- during my initial read-through, I think I would have benefitted at the time and probably wouldn't have needed to re-read the sections to converse in this thread on that particular topic.

This book is SO INFORMATIVE and so full of detailed information -- can't say enough about Roger's research and writing skills (plus his colleagues ) -- that you can't possibly absorb it all by a simple read-through as you count down the pages until 640 or so.  At least I can't.  So since using a yellow highlighter on the book isn't recommended, writing down stuff YOU find interesting would probably let stuff sink in later as you read your own notes and highlights.

Come to think of it....I suspect that many of my inquiries to Roger and others in this thread were probably stuff I read and simply forgot later on, despite my interest and ability to absorb it at the time I was reading it (like the hoard stuff).  While the adventures of Scobey and Comparette stood out in my mind, little tidbits like Britain not striking any sovereigns after 1925 did not, along with the U.S. dominance of the gold coin trade in the 1920's.  That kind of stuff.

Anyway, just thought I would pass this along to anybody looking to get the most ouf of this book.  Everybody is different and what works for me may not work for you.  YMMV, as they say.  

Edited April 10, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Roger, is it possible to get the breakdown in your population census calculations for the coins that graded MS60-62 ?   Your population census has data for CIRCULATED - MS62.  So no idea what the MS60-62 coins comprise of that total. 

If you don't have that information, are there percentage splits that the MS60-62 coins comprise of the total Circulated-MS62 for various rarity grades ?  Ovbviously, I would expect circulated coins to be a larger percentage for a rare coin since it has monetary value as opposed to generic commons.

I was trying to construct a table comparing the population census in total and for Mint State grades for your book vs. Akers/Ambio vs. Bowers.....to see how the numbers changed over time.  Might also try and uncover the old PCGS Population Census booklet and NGC's equivalent (if they have it) for maybe the mid-1990s as an added reference point.

[VKurtB]

On 4/9/2021 at 1:51 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But the pop census won't go up if someone tries to get a higher grade 20 times and it fails every time.  Only successful crack-outs go up a grade or get a "+" or "*".

I'd be surprised if any year or mintmark were off by over 100% -- not shocked, but surprised.  Liberty and Saint DE's are getting hit by "creeping hoards" from Europe (according to what I read), I would think if the population had falsely inflated because of crack-outs/resubmittances, that you'd see prices lower from dealers who realize prices are out of whack if the numbes are going up (but not because of real supply from Europe, from inflated numbers from TPGs).

Every time a coin is resubmitted cracked out of its previous slab, the so-called pop does go up.

[GoldFinger1969]

Just now, VKurtB said:

Every time a coin is resubmitted cracked out of its previous slab, the so-called pop does go up.

Who is doing the cracking -- the TPG or the owner ?  Doesn't the owner send in the coin in the slab and only tell them to re-holder it IF it grades higher ?

[VKurtB]

2 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Who is doing the cracking -- the TPG or the owner ?  Doesn't the owner send in the coin in the slab and only tell them to re-holder it IF it grades higher ?

The owner. Truly MASSIVE numbers of coins are cracked out of slabs hoping to get a higher grade. Some dealers will never buy ANY coin unless they believe they can successfully crack it out and resubmit it raw again. The noise of cracking slabs at the 2019 ANA show occasionally got deafening. 

[GoldFinger1969]

2 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

The owner. Truly MASSIVE numbers of coins are cracked out of slabs hoping to get a higher grade. Some dealers will never buy ANY coin unless they believe they can successfully crack it out and resubmit it raw again. The noise of cracking slabs at the 2019 ANA show occasionally got deafening. 

What were they cracking out at 2019 ANA ?  I would think at this point in time the number of Saint crack-outs would be dwindling, no ?  Most of the low-hanging fruit would be picked I would think.

[VKurtB]

5 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

What were they cracking out at 2019 ANA ?  I would think at this point in time the number of Saint crack-outs would be dwindling, no ?  Most of the low-hanging fruit would be picked I would think.

Everything. Saints, Morgans, Seated coins, proofs, all of it. Crack outs aren’t dwindling; they may be accelerating. 

Edited April 11, 2021 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

This is a complex issue.  Apparently, unauthorized decapsulations are not illegal, and though the technology exists to scan coins for their unique surface wear pattern or source signature, it is not being utilized. I suspect any action taken that would affect the bottom line, e.g. discouraging re-submissions, would be viewed negatively as against interest virtually insuring this activity will continue unabated.

[VKurtB]

18 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

This is a complex issue.  Apparently, unauthorized decapsulations are not illegal, and though the technology exists to scan coins for their unique surface wear pattern or source signature, it is not being utilized. I suspect any action taken that would affect the bottom line, e.g. discouraging re-submissions, would be viewed negatively as against interest virtually insuring this activity will continue unabated.

Before there is any hope to turn the level of crack outs negative, we need to try to turn the second derivative negative, i.e. stop the trend from accelerating at an ever increasing rate.

[GoldFinger1969]

If I or someone cracks out a coin, then sends it to the OTHER TPG (the one that didn't grade/slab it)....don't I run the risk of getting a lower grade ?  What then ?

[VKurtB]

10 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

If I or someone cracks out a coin, then sends it to the OTHER TPG (the one that didn't grade/slab it)....don't I run the risk of getting a lower grade ?  What then ?

Yes, but crack outs artists all believe they’re smarter than the last panel that graded a coin.