Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[RWB]

2 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

There are probably also a number of shipwrecked ships laden with gold which have thus far eluded detection.  The exact number and approximate locations are known but are not publicized for obvious reasons.

Those quantities are forever unknowable.

[GoldFinger1969]

12 minutes ago, RWB said:

I have doubts about any of this being "sensitive" in the sense of causing harm to innocent people -- well, except for the coin suckers. Even with honestly rare coins such as 1927-D DE, post distribution full disclosure would help -- but that never happens. It's about manipulation with nebulous labels, innuendo and maybe some selected lies.  I've stated my views very clearly in previous posts. No need to keep repeating. Anyone who wants to "buy the lie" can do so at their risk.

I doubt any coins as rare as a 1927-D are coming back here.  You'd probably see that leak out since everbody knows the location pretty much of the known existing coins.

Proof will be in the pudding:  prices.  If actual dealers start lowering their prices on certain coins, we'll see it.  And once coin shows are back to full blast, if this is a meaningfull trend -- as opposed to speculation or exaggeration -- we should know about it from all the dealers who congregate at FUN, ANA, or LB in 2022, or even Whitman Baltimore in 2021.

In the meantime, I'll brush up on your verified and numerically accurate figures from your book later this evening.   

Edited March 27, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

I re-read the section in the SAINTS book dealing with hoards, survivors, etc.  Roger's book has SO MUCH information that you can't possibly absorb it all at once.  It was worthwhile to go back over the information.

A few questions and observations:

(1)  As you can tell from his posts above, Roger -- even in the book -- likes to meticulously prove with 1st-hand documentation claims and statements.  He does that in the book so no surprise he does that here for those of you wondering.

(2)  The theoretical SGDE survivors could be comprised of the numbers cited above (without proof) as being in the hands of French citizens.  But it is just speculation right now.

(3)  The book has a key table on Page 603 to guestimate potential Saint-Gaudens survivors.  I may have asked this earlier in this thread but I'll ask it again:  given the meticulous record-keeping of the time, how come Treasury/Mint did not recall all the destroyed/melted coins by year or even number of bags ?  I would think they would want the record to show that Vault F Cage 3 had 6,000 bags of gold coins (or whatever) which were melted down into 3,750 400-oz. bars (or whatever).  

(4)  I had forgotten that the Wells Fargo/Gillio hoard might be part of a much larger hoard; 150,000 vs. 19,900 reported.  Very good logic in deducing that, Roger.  Could very well explain the secrecy if Gillio was not willing to talk.

(5)  MTB/El Salvador Hoard (1983):  David Akers was involved in the purchase of some or all of them and according to the HA archives, it was 47,000 Saints/Liberty DEs.

Edited March 28, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Here's the table/data from Page 603 for those who don't have the book:

• Total Saint-Gaudens Coins Minted..................70,290,930
• Known Melted Coins........................................26,951,006 (from 1921 and 1929-33)
•      TOTAL POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE..........43,339,924 

• Estimated Survivors..............................................591,665  (1907-1933, excludes the next 2 lines)                    
• Estimated Survivors...........................................2,028,000 (1908 Type 1 & 1922-1928 Philly Mint)
• Estimated Survivors...........................................1,088,310 (Europe, South America)
•       TOTAL ESTIMATED SURVIVORS..............3,707,975

•        MISSING/POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE......39,631,949

 

[RWB]

15 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I would think they would want the record to show that Vault F Cage 3 had 6,000 bags of gold coins (or whatever) which were melted down into 3,750 400-oz. bars (or whatever).

An intriguing question. First, with passage of the Gold Act of 1934, all US gold coins became anonymous bullion. That is, they lost all individual identity as to denomination, date, mint, condition, etc. They were "just 90% 10%" bits of metal.

Second, the vault custodian and Cashier kept a running tally of the content of each vault. This tracked the removal and melting of gold (and movement of other coins such as silver dollars). The daily melting capacity of the Philadelphia Mint was about $3.0 million in gold (old value), but most days $1.6 million in gold was processed. This page from a vault journal shows how the records were kept - rough, but usable for their purposes. Curiously, loss during melting did not seem to have been considered...but those M&R records might be missing. There are no before & after weigh records; no records link bags to resulting bars.

This page shows Gold coins in Cages #1, #6 and #10 Vault F (left column). Dollar amounts are in OLD DOLLARS. This is the vault from which the 1928 DE bag was missing.

Notations in the left column are:

Cage #10 6,950 un. x (meaning: uncurrent gold)

$88,1129,950 Old value

Feb 3 [1937] 50,569,950

                               5,000 Miss. (missing bag DE)

3-9 6,950 Coin in Cashier's Office

4,783,000 Bal. (Balance forwarded to bottom of right hand column.) "Off" means "off vault inventory - to melting." "Out" means "out of coin or empty."

Each date shows the beginning balance, then the amount removed for melting. Usually this was about $1.6 million per day. The journal goes through coin and bar vaults in a similar manner until the balance is -0- .

Edited March 28, 2021 by RWB

[RWB]

Not to bore members -- but this single page is one of thousands examined and analyzed as part of the DE book research. It all has to be understood individually, in local context, and within global subject context to identify its place in an information stream. This is, of course, additional to locating the original materials,  work, travel, and time that goes into mere acquisition of raw data.

Edited March 28, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

8 hours ago, RWB said:

Not to bore members -- but this single page is one of thousands examined and analyzed as part of the DE book research. It all has to be understood individually, in local context, and within global subject context to identify its place in an information stream. This is, of course, additional to locating the original materials,  work, travel, and time that goes into mere acquisition of raw data.

The detail in the SAINTS and FMTM books is extraordinary. 

You could not only talk about them at a future conference, but talking about how you actually did the research and where you veered off topic-wise from others who wrote on the same or similar topics would also be very illuminating.

It's like a massive jigsaw puzzle that you helped to put together.  

[GoldFinger1969]

9 hours ago, RWB said:

An intriguing question. First, with passage of the Gold Act of 1934, all US gold coins became anonymous bullion. That is, they lost all individual identity as to denomination, date, mint, condition, etc. They were "just 90% 10%" bits of metal.

Second, the vault custodian and Cashier kept a running tally of the content of each vault. This tracked the removal and melting of gold (and movement of other coins such as silver dollars). The daily melting capacity of the Philadelphia Mint was about $3.0 million in gold (old value), but most days $1.6 million in gold was processed. This page from a vault journal shows how the records were kept - rough, but usable for their purposes. Curiously, loss during melting did not seem to have been considered...but those M&R records might be missing. There are no before & after weigh records; no records link bags to resulting bars.

This page shows Gold coins in Cages #1, #6 and #10 Vault F (left column). Dollar amounts are in OLD DOLLARS. This is the vault from which the 1928 DE bag was missing.

Notations in the left column are:

Cage #10 6,950 un. x (meaning: uncurrent gold)

$88,1129,950 Old value

Feb 3 [1937] 50,569,950

                               5,000 Miss. (missing bag DE)

3-9 6,950 Coin in Cashier's Office

4,783,000 Bal. (Balance forwarded to bottom of right hand column.) "Off" means "off vault inventory - to melting." "Out" means "out of coin or empty."

Each date shows the beginning balance, then the amount removed for melting. Usually this was about $1.6 million per day. The journal goes through coin and bar vaults in a similar manner until the balance is -0- .

Hand-written ledgers...wow....surprised there weren't more errors made mathematically, transcribing numbers, etc.

[RWB]

The books are not really proper ledgers - more like casual notes. There was no review or check that I could locate.

[GoldFinger1969]

41 minutes ago, RWB said:

The books are not really proper ledgers - more like casual notes. There was no review or check that I could locate.

I'm just surprised so much stuff was handwritten....I know there were no computers at the time, but they did have typewriters.  Also would think a big outfit like the Mint would maybe have pre-made forms for their coin and bullion inventories.

[RWB]

Typewriters were fine for letters and lists, but they were reserved for clerks' use. Treasury HQ had a special wide typewriter for recording transfers, but there were few pieces of specialty machines. Also, the tracking and accounting systems largely evolved over time or changed in response to specific events - there was no planned system. This is the one area of expertise where Dr. Leland Howard was helpful...he was an accountant by trade and had taught at Univ. of Virginia.

Edited March 29, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

Suggested Re-Reading:  I'm going to re-hit the COMMENTARY sections of Roger's books.  I had forgotten how much information and factoids there are in these sections.  They are easy reading for me (compared to the stuff on dies and variations) and also often contain commentaries from other dealers, collectors, etc. (i.e., Akers, Bowers, etc.). 

They were probably my favorite part of each year's/mintmark's review.

Just too bad no digital copy of the book as I would love to have these section on my smartphone.  But that's another reason for grabbing the Top Coin commentaries from HA often with Akers' comments.

[GoldFinger1969]

Suggested Special Chapters:  The amount of information in this book is astounding.  Just reading the Commentary sections for the 1910-S you read about a 100 piece Swiss bank hoard that hit the market in 1981. For the 1909-D, Roger not only talks about the famous El Salvador/MTB Hoard (49,000 coins in this book, 47,000 in the Akers book) but shows a graph by graded condition by both PCGS and NGC with a spike showing once the 1983 hoard was discovered.  Other coin year and mintmarks have assay, Mint, Treasury, dealer, or other commentaries, letters, conversations, etc.  A veritable pot-pourri of information, where you get the same sections but different "stuff" in each coin year/mintmark.

For the chapters....as mentioned earlier, Roger breaks up the year-by-year, mintmark-by-mintmark reviews with Special Chapters.  One of my favorites was Apex of America's Gold Standard, 1907-1913.  Here's some others:

• Lost and Found - Survival of U.S. Gold Coins ..... goes through the numbers for theoretical surivors, what we have found quantity-wise so far with Saints, the various hoards and post-WW II finds, etc.
• World War I and Gold Exchange Suspension, 1914-1919 ..... the NYSE was closed and so was production of Saints beginning in 1916 through 1919.
• Cracks and Collapsing Dies, Double Eagles - 1920's .....  die cracks, die collapse and great close-ups.
• Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle:  Coinage Specifications .........  a short page-and-half, but with all the technical specifications if you are into this sort of thing (I'm not but found it interesting nonetheless).
• Striking Quality and Details of Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles ..... goes into die wear and striking quality and what caused "good" strikes and "bad" strikes.
• Luster ...... I never knew what it was, only how it looked when a coin had it.  A 1-pager that you will remember out of the 648 pages, for sure.
• Copper Spots, Red Spots, Gold Corrosion and Stains ... all the latest information on these problems that are thankfully less-vexing for Saint collectors than other coin types.

Edited April 2, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

On 3/27/2021 at 2:43 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I doubt any coins as rare as a 1927-D are coming back here.

GoldFinger1969's comment is a reality check. They can't come back because they never left - except of their final journey to be melted.

Records of the various mints show that 27-Ds along with many other date/mint DE never left their place of production. The quantities were not trivial - but millions. The data and sources are in the Saint-Gaudens DE book for all who care to follow the facts.

Edited April 1, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, RWB said:

GoldFinger1969's comment is a reality check. They can't come back because they never left - except of their final journey to be melted.  Records of the various mints show that 27-Ds along with many other date/mint DE never left their place of production. The quantities were not trivial - but millions. The data and sources are in the Saint-Gaudens DE book for all who care to follow the facts.

Right.....180,000 for the 1927-D......you wonder if a few coins might have been distributed in the Denver area and somehow ended up overseas (and maybe someone didn't notice the "D" mintmark) or still in the States.

But you're right on bags or any mini-hoard overseas:  they all got melted here.  

[RAJ on COINS]

Picked up a "gem" 1928 DDO in a Stacks Bowers auction tonight, my third example of this particular variety.  It may be Roger's version, or a different one with very similar doubling in the date, initials, and "south-east" stars areas.  Am anxious to compare with my other examples.

I notice I am finding fewer and fewer "un-attributed" (not marked on the slab) varieties than I did just a few years ago in online auctions.  Not sure in covid times if this is significant.  There are logically a finite number of variety examples out there, and with more and more variety coins attributed each year, the remaining un-attributed population has to be dropping.  Fortunately there are still opportunities for cherry picking!     

[GoldFinger1969]

12 minutes ago, Ross J said:

Picked up a "gem" 1928 DDO in a Stacks Bowers auction tonight, my third example of this particular variety.  It may be Roger's version, or a different one with very similar doubling in the date, initials, and "south-east" stars areas.  Am anxious to compare with my other examples.

Ross, you're cornering the market !!  I'm gonna need for the Ross Hoard to unload before I can get one !!  

Congrats on your purchase.  Report back on the differences. 

[RAJ on COINS]

11 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm gonna need for the Ross Hoard to unload before I can get one !!

No you won't!  They are out there.  I'm focused on the 1928 for the moment because of the question of how many DDO varieties exists. Would like to tie that down before I do another talk.  As for the other varieties I already have, beyond the occasional upgrade, I don't usually buy.  On those occasions I typically point out to dealers and other sellers the variety they generally are unaware of.  Usually they are interested in what I have to say.  As for me, hoarding swamps resources, and there are many other areas of numismatics which compete for my $$$ and attention.  I love Gobrecht Dollars for instance... as well as art medals, shipwreck coins, and some currency, to name a few..  Numismatics is fascinating in every possible direction!  I would have a hard time doing the kind of in depth research Roger is famous for, focusing on one area exclusively over years.  I imagine that is what it takes to write the books he writes.  My attention span isn't nearly so focused!

I do think premiums for some of these (Saint variety) coins will rise in the future, perhaps to a point where they won't be "swamped" by fluctuations in the underlying gold price.  At 66, for what's left of my lifetime, I expect that may not be the case.  But one never knows....           

[RWB]

Nice find from the auction! Will be interesting to learn if it is a new DD variety.

[GoldFinger1969]

Hoards:  Roger, for some of the smaller, non-named hoards -- where you talk about 50 here, 100 there, etc. -- where did you obtain that information (for the most part, I believe they aren't given citations or footnotes but maybe a few were) ?  Were they from Bower's Hoard book ?  Akers book (I don't recall too many 1-liners about hoards but I read it a few years ago) ?  Comments from dealers or other numismatic professionals ?

I don't believe you would be able to get that information on hoards/mini-hoards from your regular numismatic research pools of information, but maybe I'm wrong.

I plan on going over every year/mintmark for hoard references this weekend.

[RWB]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Hoards:  Roger, for some of the smaller, non-named hoards -- where you talk about 50 here, 100 there, etc. -- where did you obtain that information (for the most part, I believe they aren't given citations or footnotes but maybe a few were) ?  Were they from Bower's Hoard book ?  Akers book (I don't recall too many 1-liners about hoards but I read it a few years ago) ?  Comments from dealers or other numismatic professionals ?

I don't believe you would be able to get that information on hoards/mini-hoards from your regular numismatic research pools of information, but maybe I'm wrong.

I plan on going over every year/mintmark for hoard references this weekend.

They were accumulated from published sources, Bowers' Hoards book (which I helped edit), and a few dealer references that could be checked. Quantities were small, so any errors would also be minor and acceptable.

[GoldFinger1969]

8 minutes ago, RWB said:

They were accumulated from published sources, Bowers' Hoards book (which I helped edit), and a few dealer references that could be checked. Quantities were small, so any errors would also be minor and acceptable.

Thanks....I may have to check out the Hoard book.  I was told and the jacket blurbs implied it focused mostly on a few very large or famous Hoards (like SSCA)......apparently, it talks at some length about all the coins that came back from folks like Paul Wittlin from European banks and his South/Central American counterparts.

 

Edited April 2, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Roger...on Page 534...which coins are you referrring to when you say "the Big Three" ?

Did you mean the 3 Denver Mint rarities, the 1926-D, 1927-D, and 1931-D ? 

[RWB]

21, 27-D, and 33....but I should have been clearer. I was referring to the dates between 1929 and 1932, specifically 1930-S, as being worthy of similar or greater recognition.

[GoldFinger1969]

29 minutes ago, RWB said:

21, 27-D, and 33....but I should have been clearer. I was referring to the dates between 1929 and 1932, specifically 1930-S, as being worthy of similar or greater recognition.

Thanks.....I though this was interesting from one of the sections I was re-reading last night.  It's the perceived rarity of the Saints in the 1940's and 1950's BEFORE the hoards started to flow back in size:  

Rarity Rankings, 1940's/1950's:

ULTRA-RARE….1924-S, 1926-D, 1926-S

SUPER-RARE….1921, 1927-S, 1931-D

RARE……………1925-D, 1927-D, 1930-S

SEMI-RARE……1922-S, 1929, 1931, 1920-S, 1908-S, 1924-D

Edited April 3, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

I believe the number of Hoards to be incalculable.  They include Binion's but are most often found in safe deposit boxes, secret places behind woodwork in houses, attics, buried in the ground, hidden in caves -- even old mattresses. Most hoards are never found. And when their owners die, they take their secrets with them.  How many people knew a huge hoard of gold bars lay buried deep within one of the banks at the World Trade Center site on 9/11?  Who knew the CIA maintained an office in the complex?  Such matters are rarely publicized.

[GoldFinger1969]

21 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

I believe the number of Hoards to be incalculable.  

I usually associated the term "hoard" with sizeable number of coins in absolute terms (i.e., the Wells Fargo or 1983 MTB hoards) or relative to the existing stock (so 10 or 12 1931-D's could constitute a hoard).

What I have found fascinating is that Liberty and Saints are apparently "leaking out" of Europe the last few years but not in any size at any given time.  In other words, a few here every month but no big pot of coins all at once.   And I haven't seen any numbers given OR in-depth articles that might shed more light on this.

Roger is dubious, he says we need verifiable facts and numbers and I get that.  Hopefully we see something about this from reputable sources.  I think in the age of the internet and social media, that any find larger than 2 coins is kept hush-hush because the finders are afraid that the price will drop from the current levels once they go to sell.  Esp. for non-common rare ones.

Edited April 3, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

In my sometimes crazy-quilt way of looking at things...

If the price of gold were to rise significantly, gold coins including your beloved Saints will be loosed upon the market.  And if even a fraction undergo authentication and encapsulation, I would expect that increased supply would affect demand.

I know nothing about the population of Saints but would it be unreasonable to assume where formerly two existed at a certain grade, they may lose value if seven more were to suddenly become available? And suppose a few graded higher where formerly none had been previously certified at that level?

***

I would be curious to know whether the reintroduction of the Liberty design on the obverse of the newer bullion coins spurred an interest in the subject matter or only intensified it.  I was going to buy one until I discovered the UHR design necessarily reduced the diameter of the original.  This fast-moving, ever-evolving thread is one of my favorites.

 

[RWB]

Goldfinger 1969 seems to have hit a gold vein of information and interesting discussion with this thread. Very, very few threads ever reach his length of posts or depth of content.

[GoldFinger1969]

31 minutes ago, RWB said:

Goldfinger 1969 seems to have hit a gold vein of information and interesting discussion with this thread. Very, very few threads ever reach his length of posts or depth of content.

Had generous help from lots of readers and from one particularly smart, informative author..... whose name escapes me at the moment.       

Edited April 3, 2021 by GoldFinger1969