Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[GoldFinger1969]

I checked the HA archives.....other 1908-S coins selling for 6-figures (that Norweb is/was the most expensive) have good/decent luster but NOTHING compared to that flaming orange that looks like a light-switch was turned on inside the coin.  

Here's a link to Heritage that will show the 1908-S top coins.  Make sure you are registered and sort by PRICE: HIGHEST FIRST to see the Norweb near the top (some non-1908's also appear, I'm not sure why) and the others right behind it.

https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?No=0&Nty=1&Ntk=SI_Titles-Desc&Ns=Price|1&N=51+404+790+231&Ntt=1908-S

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Those spots/blotches in the left field at 9 PM on the Norweb 1908-S....are those copper spots ?

Edited April 29, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

13 hours ago, zadok said:

ur beliefs r well grounded....as far as i recall when i last did any research on this topic....there were only (9) morgan dollars graded ms69 n (0) graded ms70 as for the peace dollars (0) in both grades....not aware of any recently reaching either grade....

As I recall, the graders of the Wells Fargo Hoard of Saints were looking to justify a 70 to one of the 69 coins -- but couldn't.

What is weird is that if a few of those coins are legitimate 69's that they might beat out the UHRs -- whose 69's have allegedly been the beneficiaries of "gradeflation."  I think the CoinWeek articles state that the highest (the Bloomfield coin) should be a PF68.

Surprised that those few dozen or so pattern UHRs, coming right off the press, were not able to maintain a 70 or (legit) 69 grade.  I guess they were handled by human fingers and maybe placed into storage pouches that weren't satiny velvet or whatever was the softest/best thing at that time.

Edited April 30, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

[Not to be downbeat, but this is what is to be expected when investor-quality coins become the exclusive province of graders.  I mean, how difficult can it be to separate the wheat from the chaff at the highest Mint State grades?  If there is potentially lots of money to be made by members of what essentially is a secret society toiling behind closed doors out of the public view, nothing less can then be expected.]

[GoldFinger1969]

5 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

[Not to be downbeat, but this is what is to be expected when investor-quality coins become the exclusive province of graders....nothing less can then be expected.

What can be expected, QA ?

[Henri Charriere]

7 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

What can be expected, QA ?

For starters, let's continue to monitor mega-million payouts at auctions.  I am curious to see the outcome with a unique, highly-publicized specimen like the '33 Saint-Gaudens in June.

Excelsior!  The New York State motto, meaning: Ever Upward.

[RWB]

1 hour ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Excelsior!

Heck, I thought it meant shredded wood 'spaghetti' that was used for packing stuff.

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, Quintus Arrius said:

For starters, let's continue to monitor mega-million payouts at auctions.  I am curious to see the outcome with a unique, highly-publicized specimen like the '33 Saint-Gaudens in June.

It's either going to blow away expectations or be a dud -- nothing in between.  That's my guess.  OTOH, you have a chance to really kick on the Registry Set score, I believe.  You might be able to prevent anyone from ever matching your score/set if you hold on to the 1933 and no more are found/released.

1 hour ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Excelsior!  The New York State motto, meaning: Ever Upward.

Considering it's New York State, maybe the motto should be forever DOWNWARD ?

[GoldFinger1969]

44 minutes ago, RWB said:

Heck, I thought it meant shredded wood 'spaghetti' that was used for packing stuff.

They use bubble wrap nowadays. 

[Henri Charriere]

42 minutes ago, RWB said:

Heck, I thought it meant shredded wood 'spaghetti' that was used for packing stuff.

I didn't know they used wood of any kind except sawdust on butcher shop floors. 

[GoldFinger1969]

This is a great article and a good website with lots of stuff from RWB:

https://uspatterns.stores.yahoo.net/mcmviehrdoub.html

I wasn't aware of it.  If you have the SAINTS book, it's probably stuff you already have in greater depth than from this article/website...but still good to bookmark, since the book isn't online (yet !  )

[Henri Charriere]

[@Goldfinger1969. . .  Re Registry Sets:  it is my understanding NGC and PCGS do not share a common classification scheme and are compatible to an extent.  The inclusion of the storied '33 S-G on the former's Set Registry would draw a different rating from that awarded the coin on the latter's. And different ratings, based on a multiplicity of factors particularly on PCGS, would result in different rankings.  My feeling is this coin is not suitable for display amongst its more humble brethren.  I also think if the successful bidder is an investor, as opposed to a coin collector, numismatist -- or casino, it will be flipped within ten years' time.  [Of course, if I were to submit the winning bid -- still technically possible with a mega-million dollar state lottery payout, I recognize my responsibility to surrender it to you, or your designee, without delay to do with whatever you wish].  

[GoldFinger1969]

16 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Of course, if I were to submit the winning bid -- still technically possible with a mega-million dollar state lottery payout, I recognize my responsibility to surrender it to you, or your designee, without delay to do with whatever you wish.  

I'll settle for that 1908-S Norweb Saint....keep the change ! 

[RWB]

This is a great article and a good website with lots of stuff from RWB:

https://uspatterns.stores.yahoo.net/mcmviehrdoub.html

 

Thanks! Had forgotten about that.

[GoldFinger1969]

5 minutes ago, RWB said:

This is a great article and a good website with lots of stuff from RWB:

https://uspatterns.stores.yahoo.net/mcmviehrdoub.html  Thanks! Had forgotten about that.

I guess it went online right after/during RoAC.....so I'll assume the stuff in SAINTS is at least equal to it overall, even if RoAC has some parts more in-depth than SAINTS.  

Probably good to hit both the book and the website, even if there's overlap, there's new stuff from both sites if you are interested in the UHR.

[RWB]

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I guess it went online right after/during RoAC.....so I'll assume the stuff in SAINTS is at least equal to it overall, even if RoAC has some parts more in-depth than SAINTS.  

Probably good to hit both the book and the website, even if there's overlap, there's new stuff from both sites if you are interested in the UHR.

The pattern and experimental information on RAC 1905-1908 is more extensive than the SG book or referenced article .

[GoldFinger1969]

8 hours ago, RWB said:

The pattern and experimental information on RAC 1905-1908 is more extensive than the SG book or referenced article .

Yes, I remember you posted that earlier in this thread...it's why RoAC is on my BUYLIST later this year ! 

[GoldFinger1969]

Rarity Rankings:  I was curious how the complete rankings for overall rarity had changed between RWB's SAINTS book (2018) and the Akers/Ambio 2012 Gold Coins book.  

I had to make an adjustment because Roger has 54 rankings, splitting the No Motto coins by rays.  So that reduced by 1 the majority of coins above the mid-40's (the most common coins).

Some interesting observations that jumped out:

• The 1932 was 7th in Akers, 4th in RWB rankings.
• The 1920-S and 1921 each fell 3 spots (more common) in RWB rankings: from 5 to 8 and from 4 to 7, respectively.
• The 1908 No-Motto and the 1920's common dates changed spots here-and-there.  These are among the most common Saint-Gaudens coins.
• The 1908-D No Motto changed the most, going from 33 to 44 in RWB's rankings.  Curiously, the 2 rankings in the SAINTS book (2 rays) were 44 and 22 -- which averages out to the 33 that Akers had.
• The 1908-S fell 4 spots in RWB's rankings.  Other coins that moved 4 or more were the 1914-D (up, rarer), 1916-S (up), 1925-S (down, more common).
• The 1933, 1927-D, and 1930-S all stayed the same as the most rare, ranking 1-2-3.
• Most of the rankings stayed the same or moved only 1 or 2 spots.

Edited May 4, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

The takeaway being that there wasn't much relative change in abundance, even though calculations were made differently for my book.

Edited May 5, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, RWB said:

The takeaway being that there wasn't much relative change in abundance, even thought calculations were made differently for my book.

Yup... but you can still see the impact of mini-hoards and a coin here, a coin there....on the rankings in the 10-12 years since the data was re-done for your book.

[GoldFinger1969]

Most Common Saints....also interesting was the change at the bottom of the Rarity Rankings.  Both Roger and Akers/Ambio have the 1924 and 1927 as 53rd and 52nd, respectively.  But Roger then puts the 1925, 1928, and 1908 NM 51st/50th/49th.....A&A have the 1908 NM, 1928, and then the 1925.  Each has the 1928 in the 50th spot, they flip the 1908 NM and 1925 Saint.

So it appears in the last decade-plus that some mini-hoards or new coins came out for the 1925's letting it leap-frog the 1928 and switch with the 1908 NM.

                     Akers/Ambio       RWB Saints                         

1908 No Motto	51	49
1928	50	50
1925	49	51
1927	52	52
1924	53	53

[RWB]

59 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

So it appears in the last decade-plus that some mini-hoards or new coins came out for the 1925's letting it leap-frog the 1928 and switch with the 1908 NM.

There is also the factor of having more reliable and independent information in 2018. I suspect this is a stronger influence than any "new" coins suddenly appearing.

[GoldFinger1969]

7 hours ago, RWB said:

There is also the factor of having more reliable and independent information in 2018. I suspect this is a stronger influence than any "new" coins suddenly appearing.

Good point...and also, as I understand your earlier post, you employed an algorithim or adjustment factor so it is possible that small changes in this variable changed the rankings, even if no "new" coins were found -- right ?

Edited May 5, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

5 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Good point...and also, as I understand your earlier post, you employed an algorithim or adjustment factor so it is possible that small changes in this variable changed the rankings, even if no "new" coins were round -- right ?

Yes. I don't know exactly how the Akers rating was created. However, anecdotal comments from others in the business suggest it was closer to Mr. Akers personal experience in handling coins and consultations with others, plus more current TPG data. I do not buy/sell coins. I examine many and have the usual anecdotal sources, but my ordering of coins is built on raw survival and existence data along with normalized TPG data to generate a testable mathematical model. Such models are built on real data/measurements then tested against multiple sample sets - including ones with built-in errors - to establish validity parameters. Statistical significance is then tested and multiple regression analysis applied (of the form:: Y = b₀ + b₁ x1 + b₀ + b₁ x2…b₀…b₁ xn). One of the early problems I remember encountering was overfitting - where the model is too complex for the sample size/sizes. [In effect - I was overthinking the model.] My model was a mixture and had to be revised many times to produce something that was a good fit for reality and at making reasonable predictions. A caveat for this: such models are specific and cannot not be reliably extended.

Edited May 5, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, RWB said:

Yes. I don't know exactly how the Akers rating was created.

I actually corresponded with Jeff Ambio (who edited the 2nd Edition), maybe I'll reach out to him and ask.

2 hours ago, RWB said:

I examine many and have the usual anecdotal sources, but my ordering of coins is built on raw survival and existence data along with normalized TPG data to generate a testable mathematical model. Such models are built on real data/measurements then tested against multiple sample sets - including ones with built-in errors - to establish validity parameters. 

Here's what Ambio said in the 2nd Edition:  "I have also completely revised rarity estimates for each issue....it is important to point out that all of the rarity estimates and rankings are approximate and are less exact for common issues than they are for the rarest issues in these series."  He notes that lots of common coins are NOT submitted for TPG certification.

Here's something that I am just guestimating on, and you threw a cold bucket of water in this or another thread when I asked about "dribbling mini-hoards from Europe" for Saints and Liberty's:  It's now almost 90 years since the last Saints were struck.  Anybody who actually bought one at the time of minting has passed on.....anybody who got one as a gift is either up there in age or has passed on.....anybody who INHERITED such a coin decades ago when gold was $35/oz. has certainly by now realized the price is alot higher (bullion or numismatic value) and has submitted it to a TPG or passed on or given it to someone else.

Point is.....there should be no major hoards or even mini-hoards in the States, though overseas may be another matter.  Think about it:  how many people could have a gold coin....a potentially RARE (extra value) gold coin....and not sell it or take it to a coin shop that would say it is worthy of being graded (if rare/scarce) or worth at least bullion (if common), especially if the condition was good enough for a premium price ?

Edited May 5, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

submitted it to a TPG

Or are more likely to have submitted it to a Motel 6 coin buyer, received a low-ball cash offer and forgotten about it. But you make a good point - there's a certain clean out factor, much as happened with older gold when the dollar was redefined in 1834.

[GoldFinger1969]

German auction house has Saints, Double Eagles, and other gold coins.  Probably a good source for the stream of coins coming in from Europe:

https://coinweek.com/us-coins/jeff-garrett-us-gold-coins-coming-home/

Here's the catalog, check out the Saints on P. 156 (Liberty's and other coins are before that):

https://issuu.com/kuenkercoins/docs/kuenker340_katalog?utm_source=coinweek

Some rare Saints, but not in high mint state condition.  Many in AU.

Some of the coins are raw, some NGC certified.  Maybe DLange can chime in here, but I believe that these were recent raw coins graded by NGC's European offices.

Edited May 7, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

For those who want immediacy, with a tolerance for higher prices,  I would suggest MA-SHOPS, a consortium of some of the top purveyors of world coins based in Germany.  They have Gaudens galore, raw and slabbed.

[GoldFinger1969]

13 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

For those who want immediacy, with a tolerance for higher prices,  I would suggest MA-SHOPS, a consortium of some of the top purveyors of world coins based in Germany.  They have Gaudens galore, raw and slabbed.

I wonder if these are NEW coins -- new mini-hoards, even if individual coins -- or if they were already included in the population data.

I guess if they are certified from a while back -- as opposed to certified recently -- they were probably already in the population census, whether graded by the U.S. or European affiliates of NGC and PCGS.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/10/2021 at 11:52 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Arranged, and basically the owner was told by CAC/Albanese that it could not grade CAC at MS66 but 65+ it would.

Follow-up for Mike......I believe that CAC isn't grading it more favorably because 65+ is just enough below 66 that it gets the CAC sticker....CAC ignores + marks.....so it just sees the 65 vs. 66 and decided it was now solid for the grade at 65 whereas it wasn't for 66.

I'm not an expert on CAC but I believe that's how they treat it.