World Colonial

On 2/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

When was that peak, what year, WC ?

1976, though 1981 (also about 4MM) is a better indicator since it wasn't the bicentennial.

On 2/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Usually, down 85% is close to bottoming unless something is headed for zero. 

There is no equivalence to any publicly traded financial market which is your implication.

On 2/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What makes you think we still have a long way down ?  

First, what I wrote in earlier posts of the buyer profile.

Second, look at how these sets are bought and who is probably buying it.  It's substantially out of rote habit, often by subscription.  

Third, even with about 400,000 for the clad and somewhat less than 300,000 for the silver (both 2022), still more common than practically any set or coin.  In the past I have guesstimated 2MM US collectors.  If ballpark accurate, this potentially means somewhere between 20% and 35% of the collector base still buy one or both.  That's a very high ratio.

It's not very competitive in the internet age where it has to compete with practically everything else.

On 2/19/2023 at 3:26 PM, olympicsos said:

How many of them would rather collect MS66 CAC Saints if they could afford it instead of moderns? 

Yes, this is my point.

Number of collectors buying something in and of itself alone never equals an actual preference.

There is a difference between "liking" and preferred.  I've never stated (even once) that US collectors dislike this coinage, for the obvious reason that I can assume no one buys something they don't want.

I also agree for obvious reasons, that whoever buys US Mint products might prefer it over other similarly priced coins or else they would buy something else. This doesn't change a single thing I stated in my prior posts.

I value my collection somewhere in the mid-five figures.  That's just how I collect.  Concurrently, it's equally obvious most collectors don't and won't spend this kind of money, whether they can afford it or not.  It's just not how they view coin collecting, regardless of what they collect.

That they don't doesn't mean they prefer what they buy over all other coins regardless of the value.  Believing it is nonsense.

On 2/19/2023 at 3:13 PM, VKurtB said:

I reject this. I’ve NEVER been to a local coin auction from an estate that did NOT HAVE modern U.S. sets. The only question is what ELSE the dearly departed collected. The LEAST POPULAR is anything non-U.S.

Your personal observations are not more representative than the Heritage Archives.

Yes, the least preferred coinage for US collectors generically is low priced non-US coinage.  Concurrently, there is a difference between "popular" measured by the size of the collector base and an actual preference.

There are other reasons US collectors don't buy other coins.  I gave two in my last post.

One, relative marketability.  

Two: Availability.  Your local auction has a very small slice of what's available to buy.  With most non-US coinage, there is no possibility that the hundreds of thousands buying US proof sets can buy a noticeable percentage of it because it doesn't exist to be bought in that supply.  It's never going to be more "popular" by your definition.

Three: Affordability.  Collectors cannot buy what they cannot afford, whether it's US or non-US.

Four: Lack of knowledge.  Most collectors have no clue that most non-US coins even exist.  This doesn't mean they would change their preference, but it does contradict your claim.

On 2/18/2023 at 2:46 PM, olympicsos said:

How many low budget collectors really prefer moderns? 

The available evidence proves it's really low, for currently circulating denominations.  For collectors who are willing to spend more, as soon as their budget increases, it's a one-way street from this coinage to something else.  There is virtually zero if any movement in the other direction.

Last year, I analyzed the Heritage Archive data here. It's the closest approximation of actual aggregate collector preferences publicly available.  It's less representative for US moderns, but that's only because it's not economical to sell such disproportionately low-priced coinage through them. 

Combining Heritage with Greate Collections and eBay would provide a more accurate result.  However, I didn't have access to historical eBay data and GC isn't organized properly for this analysis.  My inference is that preferences for this coinage (excluding bullion which I did not analyze) are marginally higher than indicated by the Heritage data.

Three collector profiles for US Mint releases:

1) Financially motivated buyers for bullion and many of the commemoratives.

2) Low budget collectors for proof sets, mint sets, other circulating coinage (bags and rolls for CRH and "cherry picking"), and cheaper commemoratives.

3) As a "side collection" for (practically) everyone else, not as their a primary collection.

This is why I expect future mintages to decline but without any meaningful increase in prices, because it's evident most collectors don't really like this coinage that much.  For proof and mint sets, even after such huge declines, mintages are hardly low.  Still very common for such a low aggregate preference, especially where the survival rate in current quality will be a very high percentage for as long as it matters to anyone reading this thread.

On 2/17/2023 at 5:49 PM, VKurtB said:

What happened in the 60’s to the 00’s was “everybody” bought some for themselves and some to resell. Well guess what. Everybody who wanted them, had them. That NEEDED to stop, and now it has. If you’re foolish enough to think that somebody else will do that for you forever, you deserve to not get yours. 

Yes, I agree with this comment.  There were never three to four million collector buyers at peak sales.  Many buying multiple sets and many potentially bought by non-collectors too.

On 2/17/2023 at 5:49 PM, VKurtB said:

How has it worked out for those who waited on the 2012 silver set?

You could make the same comment about the 95-W ASE.  A few exceptions don't negate what I wrote.

On 2/17/2023 at 5:50 PM, VKurtB said:

There ARE NO ALTERNATIVES, unless you want Chinese fakes. The Mint has a monopoly. 

No one has to buy any coin.  That's my point.  There are plenty of other coins to buy, or haven't you noticed?

On 2/17/2023 at 5:42 PM, VKurtB said:

Last year’s Silver Proof Set retailed at $110, with NO SHIPPING because I’m a subscriber. The last two I saw selling at auction within the last month went for $140 and $150 PLUS the Buyer’s Premium PLUS shipping. Yeah, going down, sure. Pffft. You do you. I’ll do me.  

Going up like everything else since the pandemic. 

Buy what you want.  I just consider these sets poor relative values versus the alternatives.

On 2/17/2023 at 5:04 PM, bsshog40 said:

There will always be the bulk buyers. The mint is slowly just eliminating the low budget collectors with the increasing prices of their products. 

The increasing prices are on track to eliminate more than just low budget collectors.  Mintage for the 2022 clad set is down 90% from the peak decades ago.  Silver is down close to 70%, I think.  In my prior post, I speculated world mints subsidize prices, but collectors only care about the issue price and secondly for many, resale value.

The lower mintages in theory better support higher issue prices, but that's only true if demand remains at current levels or increases.  I don't think it will, because the sets (either clad or silver) aren't competitive longer term at current prices and supply versus alternative options.

The current business model has the potential to lead to a "death spiral" where higher prices mean lower mintages which leads to higher prices in a feedback loop.  I'm not sure what the issue price would be today at a 100,000 mintage but that's not low and I am even more confident it would be even less competitive than it is now to the remaining buyers.

On 2/17/2023 at 4:35 PM, olympicsos said:

I remember when the 2004 proof set was very expensive and then the value collapsed. Still we are seeing 1950s mintage levels with room for even less to be made. At what point will the US Mint simply discontinue or combine the annual core products? 

I remember when the 1999 silver proof set was worth something like $600.  What's it worth now?

There is a big difference between the mintage levels for the 50's sets then versus similar mintages now and later.  Back then, presumably the collector base was (somewhat or a lot) smaller, but there was also a lot less choice.  It was mostly what was available from their local dealers (for most collectors) which varied noticeably, depending upon where they lived.

Today, the US Mint competes in a global market, not just against other world mints, but against the internet which means practically every coin.  In this competitive landscape, US proof sets are drab uninteresting options, not really very competitive even against similarly priced coins.

US collectors do prefer US coins by a substantial margin, but they did too before sales volume collapsed 90% from the peak for clad sets.

On 2/17/2023 at 1:04 PM, VKurtB said:

And no, I will not wait for the secondary market, which will go UP due to reduced original purchases. The secondary market only goes down when people overbuy. 

I just checked the most recent US Mint sales report as of 2/13.  Yes, the 2022 proof set (both) mintage is "low", compared to prior years.  At somewhat over 400,000 (clad) and somewhat below 300,000 (silver), it's still nowhere close to actually low.

Guess it just depends upon the timeframe for someone's outlook. Longer term, I'm quite confident these mintages are far above future demand. 

On 2/16/2023 at 11:09 PM, MorganMan said:

Quit buying from the mint back in 2019. I will wait and buy it cheaper on the secondary market.

This makes perfect sense for the buyer.  It also means that as the mintage shrinks, the overhead must be allocated to the remaining sets requiring higher prices.  It's a catch-22 with no way out.

On 2/16/2023 at 11:09 PM, MorganMan said:

Their prices have gone outrageous. Going up even as silver has gone down.

The silver content amounts to somewhat less than 1.5oz.  Unless the price increase was small, It's probably due to overhead.

I don't check secondary market vs. US Mint prices.  I've consistently read that these mass produced products almost always sell for less in the secondary market and it's due to a combination of weak collector appeal and how it has to be priced.

I get that the US Mint isn't in the business of making sure buyers don't lose money.  It doesn't change anything.  Given the mintage and price differences, my inference is that other world mints must provide at least partial subsidies.

Regardless, in today's collector market, the mintage for the clad proof set could decline by another 85% from 2019 to about 100,000 and it would still potentially be too common for longer term collector demand.  Similar idea for the silver set and mint set.

This isn't the 60's or 70's when the US Mint didn't have to compete with hardly anyone else.

On 2/16/2023 at 9:34 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The mint should charge break even prices for common or low demand items, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace commemoratives they should charge cost x 2 and keep the mintage at or below 75-100k. The demand is there.

The new Morgan and Peace dollar might be an exception, though I doubt for long if it's an on-going series.  The 2021 prices weren't low for such common coins.  Even your reduced mintages potentially rely on a noticeable proportion of speculative or financially motivated buyers.  The number of hobbyist collectors who own individual dates of real Morgan and Peace dollars potential isn't that much larger.

It's the cost structure.  I don't think the US Mint should be in the business of subsidizing collectible coinage.  Problem is perpetual currency debasement makes most of it uncompetitive at full accounting cost.

The coins simply aren't that interesting, except for speculative buying (which isn't real collecting) or as a side collection to the majority of buyers who can both afford it and don't mind spending the money.

In the past, I've guesstimated that the majority of US collectors have an annual budget of $500 or less and I think this is generous.  This is the profile for a big portion of the traditional base for proof and mint sets in the past, though not of other US Mint offerings.  If this budget is "ballpark" accurate, I don't think most of them can either afford it or are motivated to buy it.

On 2/16/2023 at 4:34 PM, VKurtB said:

The higher mintage of the U.S. product is none of the Mint’s concern. They mint to demand. They have no interest in tomorrow’s scarcity. 

It's of concern to collectors which I presume is the entire point of this thread.  

They are on course to price the product out of the market.

On 2/16/2023 at 3:34 PM, VKurtB said:

These are prices that are 1) more closely in compliance with federal law, and 2) more in line with other world mints. Prices have virtually NOTHING to do with mintage, other than a higher denominator. 

Yes, I know.

My point on the mintage is that it's still an awful value proposition for the buyer.  I think Switzerland has mintages in the 2000 to 3000 range for the annual proof set now.  Maybe it's between 2X to 3X the US clad set?

Same pattern for other major world mints, to my recollection.

Regardless, it's a much better value.  The longer-term marketability has to be much better.

US clad sales have declined about 85% from the peak, to about 600,000 in 2019 which was the last year included in my search.

There is still a long way down to go.

Grading is expensive.  I just sent in a submission of two batches.  One with five and a second for conservation and grading with three.  The cost will be somewhere in the vicinity of $300.  Three of the coins will be consigned for sale.

On 2/14/2023 at 8:20 AM, VKurtB said:

OTOH, Switzerland, which has a currency near to par with ours, has eliminated entirely their 1c and  coin and virtually eliminated the 5c. The last time I was in Switzerland (for two weeks) in 1980, the 5c was never encountered in daily commerce. The smallest coin being used was 10c. 

I presume it depends upon the local cost of living.  Last I knew, Bolivia still made 5c coins, but their currency (Boliviano) is worth between 14 and 15 cents on the dollar.

The country isn't nearly as poor as most might think assuming they know anything about it, but income levels are very low statistically.

Late again, but I would have thought higher. 

Late to the thread but much nicer than most, regardless of the label number.

Doesn't look genuine to me.

You'll need to weigh it and compare the design to a published reference for attribution.  It's not round (like royal coinage) but no genuine cob I have ever seen looks anything like the one in your image.

What cladking said.

The root cause is perpetual currency debasement.  Government sanctioned theft of the citizens property which is actually another layer of taxation.

The combination of electronic money and perpetual inflation seals its fate.

On 2/10/2023 at 6:26 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What about it really appeals to you ?  I think the obverse has its plusses but the reverse eagle is kind of blah.  

For US collectors, it's often the appeal of coins (in the Red Book) they couldn't afford as a YN.  You didn't collect at that age, so it doesn't have the same appeal to you.  I used to see some of these coins (not just this design) at one of my local dealers (World Numismatics in Atlanta) but of course never had the money.

I have some nostalgia for this type of coin and the money for most of these individually now, but not enough to actually go out and buy it over my primary collection.

Many coins have mediocre to bad designs, but still look much better in pristine condition.  Even the FDR dime, which I think has an awful design, looks decent as a gem BU.

It's an interesting area of coin collecting but substantially for budgets above mine.

Around 1977, someone bought me a set of Lincoln cents where each one had the map of one of the 50 states counter stamped on it.  It came with a cardboard coin board where I (of course) proceeded to tape the coins in the slots to hold it in place.  It was a neat concept but no, not of any value.

I also remember one of my local dealers selling Lincoln cents counter stamped with an image of the Liberty Bell.  Retail was 39c.  I believe the idea was to create a "bicentennial penny".