World Colonial

On 5/19/2023 at 4:54 PM, VKurtB said:

To me, Heritage is ALWAYS a non-starter. If you have the bucks to be shopping at Heritage, you're well-healed and should never gripe about costs. I have bought a few from Stacks-Bowers, but they were either non-photographed lots or the photos looked like garbage, and I went to look at the coins in person and found they were just awful photos of good coins. I have too much experience in the photo industry. I. DO. NOT. TRUST. COIN. PHOTOS. Full stop.

You seem to have a different definition of "well heeled".

I've spent $12K since I first bought from them in 2006 on 42 lots (three multi-coin).  Most were somewhat over $100 or less but these aren't available elsewhere hardly ever.

In my experience, the coins are usually somewhat nicer than the picture.  I don't recall buying a coin from them which was noticeably worse.

I've bought far fewer coins from Stacks but the amount I've spent isn't much less.  Heritage hasn't offered much in my series in recent years.

On 5/19/2023 at 3:11 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I bought probably 10-12 coins at FUN 2020, granted, it was my first time there and first really big coin show so I had lots of pent-up demand.  But I probably spent low-5 figures.

 

I bought one coin at the 2020 ANA in ATL for about $700.  That's the most I've spent at any show.  Usually, it's about $300 but it's low-priced coins for my secondary collections.  2020 ANA was the first time I ever saw anything at a show in my primary I wanted to buy.

Your posts indicate you buy "investment" coinage which differs from me. If I bought what you do, I'd have a somewhat different philosophy.

Since I buy "collector" coins, I don't "save up" and almost never dip into my savings.  Once I save money, it stays there.  I've dipped into savings a few times recently to avoid missing out on coins I really wanted, but otherwise, I pay myself first and only use what's left over.  This means I have to meet my savings target for the year.  I may not meet it, but it's not going to be because I went on a coin buying "binge". 

I also don't buy "big ticket" coins either.  I may do that after I retire when I don't have to work for the money, but I'm not about to forgo saving for months to buy a coin. 

On 5/19/2023 at 10:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I actually have bought very few coins off of HA....I've bought lots of currency and bills...those are tougher to find, which jibes with some of the posts here in using the onlines for more difficult stuff to buy.

If the coins I collect were readily available, I'd usually buy it at a local dealer or show, depending upon price.

I've bought a few coins at shows, but don't bother with local dealers for what I buy.

On 5/19/2023 at 10:23 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

We should never default and there's no need to -- we control our own printing press.  As the global reserve financial currency where 90% of all FOREX trades involve the dollar, the doom-and-gloomers need to chill out, IMO. 

Resorting to the "printing press" ultimately means both the government's credit and the national currency are destroyed, instead of just credit.  When markets lose confidence in the currency, it will be irrelevant whether the government defaults explicitly or through the printing press.  The end result is still declining or crashing domestic living standards for most of the population.

The foreign exchange value of the USD is the most critical indicator.  As a proxy, the DXY is around 101 now.  The key level is the 2008 low of 70.  So yes, there is some latitude but not as much as most believe.

Before it gets to this point though, I expect numerous "unorthodox" actions by the USG or any other developed country government.

As for the OP's question, doesn't really have anything to do with it.  The coin market price level for the more expensive coinage anyway is contingent upon the broader asset mania.

I don't think it would make any difference, at this time.  If it did, it's a psychological reaction.  Everyone knows the USG can always pay its debts by "printing" if necessary.

At some point contrary to conventional wisdom, the USG probably will be better off defaulting versus destroying the currency.  But first, I expect many other "policy changes" which will include "technical defaults".  

On 5/18/2023 at 2:11 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

For a difficult coin or a common one in JUST the right condition you want....you have ease of buying which is definitely worth something.

Yes, maybe some US modern in a particular grade (TPG label) as a "special designation strike": FB/FT FDR dime or FS nickel.  

Other than that, I can't think of even one US coin where this applies where the minimum Heritage buyer's fee is a factor. 

We're talking sub-$100 coins or maybe slightly above it.  US coins are too common where it cannot be found elsewhere, almost always on short notice or right now.

Just buy it on eBay.

On 5/6/2023 at 7:50 PM, J P M said:

I love the coins I see on Heritage but not only is there a 20% fee but before you can even bid there is a $30 BP fee. I just can't do that. 

In US material, what exactly does Heritage offer that can't be found (in multiple) somewhere else?

I've bought low-priced coins (below $100) from Heritage several times, but it was world coins which are difficult to find elsewhere.

On 5/6/2023 at 9:21 PM, RWB said:

I've never seen a coin with a " * " or '" + " on the label that deserved it. The numerical grades themselves are too flexible and imprecise to be very reliable.

(But, I prefer consistency and quality to cute sales symbols.)

I'm still waiting for @, #, $, %. ^. &, and - (minus).  I could add a few more too.  It's on my keyboard.

On 5/6/2023 at 11:00 AM, RWB said:

The topics Demand and Supply are not treated comparably. Supply seems to ignore non-mining sources, while Demand includes all uses. If correct, this invalidates the report and its conclusions.

That's why this rationalization (exactly what it was) in the 80's and 90's didn't change the outcome.

The price can increase or decrease a lot without a corresponding change in the supply.  It can change a lot with essentially no change in supply.  All it takes is buyers willing to pay a lot more.

As an "investment" asset, the price of gold and silver is psychologically determined.  This is true of all asset prices.  With most (not all) goods and services, higher prices = lower demand. That's what is written in economic textbooks, or at least the ones I used and read.

The opposite is true with "investments".  Demand is higher than ever recently, even as practically all asset classes are more expensive versus the past.  Higher prices increase demand.

On 5/7/2023 at 12:32 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

As long as the data points are accurate, the conclusions really don't matter.  

The Big Picture as I see it is that demand sourced for India and other countries who in the past didn't consume much continue to grow.  This is a theme I hit with gold, focusing only on India (noting that ther are other Asian countries, Africa, and South/Central America that are also increasing their consumption).

India has been one of the biggest silver buyers for a long time.  Nothing new in that.  It's commonly purchased for wedding related gifts, or so I've heard.

On 5/4/2023 at 8:59 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Lot of interesting stuff here...  "it's a matter of waiting long enough for the coins to be offered for sale." You mean like when gold hits $3500 an ounce? Or like when I'm well nigh ninety-nine?  

"I haven't tried the private sale route -- yet..."  

"I saw it show up in the NGC census last year and sometimes... but not usually."  Or as a distinguished member here put it, in substance: fuhgettaboudit, which I took to mean: not-in-your lifetime.

I've seen most of the coins I don't have as dreck, but not otherwise and only a few times, as in very infrequently.  Also a few upgrades or coins I don't have that I either was an underbidder, chose not to bid on due to budget limits, or did not know about but found out about later.

Of the 86 Peru coins in these four denominations, here is what I have with none dreck:

1/2R: 12 dates, two details, two AU, eight MS up to MS-65, and several duplicates also AU or MS

1R: 11 dates, one AU details, one F-12, one XF, one AU-58, seven MS, and several duplicates including AU and MS.

2R: 11 dates, 2 details, one VF, two XF, one AU-50, one AU-55, one AU-58, and four MS, and several duplicates but not as nice as the others

4R: Six dates, two AU details, three XF-45, and one AU-53

So, 33 out of 86 numerically graded or 40 including details.  Total TPG coins = 62.  Including raw coin which I do not count because I am looking for an acceptable coin, five more.  These aren't dreck either but not good enough.

This is in 13 years of making it my primary series and slightly over 20 total, though I was not aware of all the sources the whole time or looking very hard prior to 2010.

On 5/4/2023 at 7:49 PM, VKurtB said:

Sounds like a “feast v. famine” story to me. Older Latin American material has been hot lately in competitive ANA exhibiting. 

Correct.  

It's a matter of waiting long enough for the coins to be offered for sale. I haven't tried the private sale route - yet - by approaching one or more dealers to actively find coins for me.  

One PCGS forum member just bought the 1765 Peru NGC MS-62 4R.  I saw it show up in the NGC census last year and sometimes the grading event coincides with a proximate sale, but not usually.  I don't have the budget for a coin like it and lower quality examples don't show up hardly ever either.

On 5/4/2023 at 4:02 PM, VKurtB said:

There’s only one question, sadly. To whom will Whitman Publishing reach out when one of their series books needs an update badly enough? 

How soon and how likely is that for the (vast) majority?  By this, I mean that it's so "dated" that it "needs" updating.

US coinage seems to be the most researched and written by a large margin.  Maybe followed by British, ancients, and German?

Yes, to complete the Lima and Potosi pillar series to the extent possible. 

That's where all my coin budget has been going and if I choose to stick with it, no realistic prospect I'll have to think about starting another major project; not enough coin budget.  Main reason I would is the inability to find coins I do not have.  I've been fortunate to buy 10 in the last six months or so (a few duplicates) but that's the first time I've ever seen anywhere near this many I wanted to buy in such close proximity.  Lost out on a few others too.

Another farce

On 5/2/2023 at 10:20 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Chase has been bigger ever since the 2000's.  Much larger today by deposits or assets or even market capitalization.  Citibank got diluted to hell back in 2008-09 whereas JPM really didn't need TARP funds.

JPM stock has recovered and hit new highs since then; Citi is 1/10th the price level back then.  Some bailout !! 

I'd describe Citicorp as a quasi-zombie bank.  It's doing ok now but I consider its franchise weak.  Believe they have drastically shrunk their global footprint.

On 5/2/2023 at 8:38 AM, zadok said:

...no longer british....

It's based in London and has been for years.  Depends upon what you mean by "no longer British", as it's a public company and I have no idea who are the primary shareholders now.  Hong Kong and China are and have been its most important markets. 

On 4/30/2023 at 10:38 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But I note that some of these "gold bugs" are not even justifying gold or PMs but cherry-picking a single time period when gold did fantastic and comparing that to stocks.  Totally biased and unfair.

I wouldn't mind if they said they were more COMFORATABLE with gold/PMs -- but they aren't citing anything that would justify gold over long periods of time for most individuals.  Just a single cherry-picked time period.

The worst "gold bug" I ever encountered was on the South Africa BoB Forum.  I have never encountered anyone else who made such outlandish implied price forecasts and used such irrelevant ridiculous "evidence" to "support" their claims.

In one thread, he was double posting, as both himself and using a second troll ID.  In one post, he implied not using fiat currency at all.  I asked him if he had a bank account, used credit, received his income in gold and silver, and bartered.  The response?  Crickets.  The conversation was completely absurd.

On 4/30/2023 at 8:53 AM, Errorists said:

Would be great if this was the first one.  

Except that it isn't.  Compare it to the relatively few MS-68 or even numerous MS-67.

On 4/27/2023 at 11:08 AM, Errorists said:

Found this 1997P dime spectacular specimen about 50% off center with a nice bonus die crack on the chin. Field and devices look very high grade MS-69 or 70?

There isn't a single FDR dime in 69 or 70, at least with this date or prior, not at NGC or PCGS.

On 4/29/2023 at 4:12 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The April 17 STREETWISE commentary by BARRON'S Jack Hough (a funny guy) notes that Wells Fargo did a piece on commodity supercycles and they date this one to starting in March 2020.  Usually prices go up about 250% and so far this has been about 80%.  250% applied to gold would be $3,500 - $5,000 depending on your starting point.

There have been 6 previous bull supercycles for commodities going back to 1791 (!).  They usually last 9-24 years.  They date the last one from 1999 to 2008 (some topped out a few years later) with oil going up 15-fold, cooper up 8-fold, gold up 7-fold, and foodstuffs also appreciating nicely.

This would be consistent with my claim that most Americans are destined to become poorer or a lot poorer.  Only a small minority will be on the receiving side of that.

Everyone else will be paying "through the nose".

On 4/28/2023 at 1:52 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If the price of gold goes up substantially, it's dragging up any gold coin that trades as bullion and lots of others that are quasi-bullion, quasi-numismatic.

If gold goes to $3,000 then an MS-65 generic Saint will probably cost close to $4,000.

Yes, that's for common widgets with low or relatively low premiums.

Lower if any correlation for the common date US $20 Assay Office Territorial gold.  I haven't charted it, just an observation.

On 4/28/2023 at 2:08 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm not a silver hawker or perma-bull.  Most people who deal in PMs -- not all but most -- are always bullish even though as investments it does NOT pay to recommend their purchase for long periods of time (not the case with stocks and bonds quite as much).

I wasn't referring to you.  I was referring to how "fundamentals" are generically used to rationalize a position.