World Colonial

On 4/28/2023 at 9:30 AM, zadok said:

...been listening to ur n GF discussion on world financial status...interesting n thought provoking...i dont wholly agree nor disagree with either of u, but do disagree with some of the premises presented...just a few tidbits n observations..."gold" n "coins" r not interchangeable, while a substantial portion of gold is purchased in coin form it is mostly in bullion coins n not collectible coins, one can not compare those two n get the same results...both can be "investments" n both can provide returns when liquidated but not in the same manner...the financial community likes to make neat little boxes to explain whats going to happen n why, its segmented at best, cause n effect is not all consuming...yes they like graphs n formulae n rules that predict whats going to happen but they simply dont work, they barely indicate trends, there r just too many world random events n influences to quantify..."culture" big word n bigger problem to quantify n dynamic, constantly shifting, n gold is deeply invested in many if not all cultures, its almost a part of human nature, for most of mankind gold has been recognized n regarded as special n the base for wealth only surpassed by land...i would estimate that 95% of all the people i know own some gold n value it higher than most of their other possessions, my family has always owned gold...i have a reasonably well diversified portfolio, i do not consider my gold possessions as investments but i do consider them as assets, second only to land i own, having said that my gold assets r greater than all of my other portfolio assets combined n i am very comfortable with than n increase the amount every year, i guess its part of my personal "culture"..."causal fundamentals" i dont think that can ever be put in a little box n quantified, it mutates constantly...u can not even take gold, silver n oil n graph them n get a consistent indicator...just tidbits of no meaningful relevance....

Yes, I agree gold and coins are not interchangeable.

One is a collectible and seldom "investment".

Since this is a coin forum, I was using it as another example of how people use external events to rationalize a forecast all the time.

Besides, I consider the relative value of gold to what people buy a lot more relevant, not the USD or fiat currency price.

On 4/28/2023 at 12:47 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't doubt the importance of culture, and a 1-party state in China has an advantage over a corrupt, multi-layered democracy.  But I didn't say they would grow 8-10% a year, but 5-7%.   BIG difference and much more achievable.  With labor supply increasing, with British rule of law in India, with suppliers diversifying out of China....they have some tailwinds.

Culture is more important than every single factor believed by conventional thinkers.  This is completely obvious.  This is why the US is heading in the wrong direction and why once the asset mania and credit bubble end, the country is going backwards.

Yes, I know you and others who disagree with me don't believe it.

On 4/28/2023 at 12:47 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

This is a shift in demand and it's potentially big.  When central banks stopped selling in the early-2000's, gold went up 6-fold in 11 years.

Central banks are just bad market timers, that's all.  Government is the ultimate lagging indicator.  Recent central bank buying isn't in and of itself bullish either.  Back then, the selling would have been considered a bearish indicator when it was the opposite.

On 4/28/2023 at 12:47 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's NOT the same argument as silver (which I haven't heard) because a key silver demand issue went KAPUT (photographic silver demand).   People who are at subsistence income levels do not spend $$$ on cell phones, HDTVs, or gold coins/bars.  Let their incomes go up 10-15% for 2 decades and they will spend it on such stuff.  

The mining deficit was a rationalization used in the 80's by the silver marketers to convince metal bugs to buy it.  After all, it makes intuitive sense.  Demand was higher than production - for years - so prices should go up, right?  Except that it didn't, because that's not how markets work.  Prices fell until 2001, a double bottom with 1993, I think.

You're making a similar rationalization here.  I happen to think gold is heading higher now too, but it's not contingent (at all) on your supposed causal factors.  You can take these supposed causal reasons and correlate it to the price of gold, and there is no possibility to demonstrate it makes any difference.  It's an assumption.

Look at inflation and metal prices.  Yes, I know that over a long enough period, it's correlated.  Except that with silver, prices are still 50% lower after 43 YEARS.  Still gone nowhere (adjusted for price changes) even if bought immediately prior or subsequent to the bubble.  Gold prices are higher nominally but anyone who bought in early 1980 is worse off and had a huge opportunity cost on top of it, if they still hold it which most did not.  Both ran up after late 2008 in anticipation of much higher (price) inflation which never materialized.  Inflation didn't "cause" the price increase.

The reason I keep on having these discussions with you is because you can't get past false "fundamental" causality.  None of these "fundamentals" ever bought a single share or ounce.  

Gold is somewhat different than coins because it actually has some use, but US collectors use similar rationalizations to project rising prices for world coins in countries with limited to no history of collecting.  I've read this claim, over and over.  No amount of affluence will ever make anyone want to buy a single coin because it has nothing to do with it.  Some level of affluence is a necessary precondition, but it has no predictive value, at all.

In a country like China which is most often used, it's buying coins as "investments" and TPG primarily driving the higher price level.  Same as the US starting in the early 70's and then in '86 with TPG.  Same as South Africa on a much smaller scale leading up to the YE 2011 peak.  It's not affluence which matters, it's the cultural mindset behind financially motivated buying.  No, the much higher prices aren't due to subsequent generations of collectors finding the coinage so interesting, never mind labels on plastic holders or in the US, CAC stickers.

In China or anywhere else, it's not like there weren't already plenty of people with enough (fake) wealth to push prices much higher in such pitifully small markets.  This is true in every country on the planet, literally.  In most countries, one or a handful of moderately affluent people could literally buy every single "investment" type coin because the supply and combined market value is so nominal.

On 4/27/2023 at 12:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Yes, very true.  India is all set now to replicate what China did growth-wise from 1990-2020.  They have a young, growing population...increasing labor supply (China is now LOSING workers each year).  If India doesn't screw it up -- a big IF, based on past mistakes -- there is no reason their economy can't grow 5-7% a year for the next 10-15 years.

Good luck with that.  Totally different culture.  Culture is the primary driver of economic performance, not the claptrap published in economic textbooks or financial media.  This is self-evident in the visible prosperity between countries and regions within countries now.

Lack of supposed affluence doesn't explain the price of gold or anything else.  It's simply another rationalization, whether the price increases or not.  It's not like there aren't plenty of people who can't buy more gold now.  It's the same type of argument I read decades ago why silver should increase due to a production shortage.  It's also the same rationalization behind the belief of so many US based collectors why world coin prices are supposedly set to explode, only at a smaller scale.

P.S.: Yes, per my prior post, still agree gold looks like it is about to "break out".

On 4/26/2023 at 3:59 PM, zadok said:

...no u misunderstood, i was a buyer on $1000 notes 20 years ago in the $1100-1200 range n sold at the $1700-2000 range...agree time to buy was decades ago, no way i pay todays prices on common mid grade ones...they will be same price 20 years from now...

That's basically breaking even in real money.

It's also worth a fraction of what it was worth when it was issued in the 1930's or earlier. $1000 was a lot of money then.  

On 4/26/2023 at 10:44 AM, zadok said:

...yes talking about buying for resale to "flip" notes...but notes bought correctly decades ago, especially obsolete bank notes realizing gigantic gains, i personally sold some at 1000% return bought 20 years ago...not sure i understand ur comment bout FV of $s...r u referencing what u could have bought with that money then?...sure could have bought a 1970 chevy chevelle ss 454/400 for $3600 then n i did...also bought bunch of $20 DE for $67 per coin which i still have...its more of a situation of if u have discretionary funds where to put them...i chose coins, guns, cars, precious metals n land n a few precious minerals/gems...all have outperformed my stocks etc even counting dividends....

I am specifically referring to high FV notes, $500 and up.  The premium on most of these now isn't enough to make up for the difference in the change in purchasing power.

I'm not sure it matters to you, but it would to me if I were a buyer.  $1700-$2000 is a lot of money for such common currency.  No way I'd buy something as common as these notes at this price and have it lose a high percentage of it's true (no, not nominal value) while I own it.  It's not that interesting.

I presume this doesn't matter to Currency Note collectors who buy it, but then, I'm not one of them.

I'm somewhat aware of what you stated for lower denominations.  Yes, big increases on many especially on high grades.  I used to look at older South Africa currency.  It's quite expensive in high quality or was.

On 4/26/2023 at 8:43 AM, zadok said:

...big money to be made in currency but u have to buy raw n certify n know what ur doing, very few collectors can grade currency accurately...%return on currency much higher than on coins...the $1000 notes routinely selling for $1700-$2000 range if in just decent mid range grades as an example...choice crisp clean uncs, the sky is the limit depending on the grade....

I understand that. You're describing speculation, buying it to "flip".  I'm referring to buying it as a "hold" for someone's collection.

How do the prices you cite compare to the purchasing power of these notes decades ago?

That's my point.

$1700-$2000 now is worth a fraction of the FV (real value it could buy) when it was issued.  Same result if someone bought it when I started collecting coins in 1975.  Specific results depend upon the date of issuance and purchase.  

On 4/25/2023 at 4:21 PM, Henri Charriere said:

It was a $1000. 1934 series note I bought for $1,057, I believe, pre-EPQ era and I can assure you the novelty of owning it wore off quickly.  True, they were once guaranteed financial sinkholes (from currency debasement) as you've indicated, but I guess the times they are a-changin'.

Still almost guaranteed to be a money loser longer term.  Not familiar with the price history since issuance but all of these are worth a low fraction measured in constant purchasing power.  Might have gone up recently due to the massive asset mania.

On 4/25/2023 at 12:05 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I did buy one for a nominal $50 once, but they were never really in demand.

 

You bought a $500 or $1000 for $50?  That's what I was referencing.  I've seen other currency, like the Bison reverse, but this type of paper currency is way too expensive as a sideline collection.  I'm not interested in the common cheap stuff.

World currency I'd only buy in high grade certified and it's not cheap either.

I just had my submission finalized and it's been shipped today.

Once again, a coin I requested for conservation appears to have been dipped "blast white".  Do I need to specify not to do this every time?  I'll see what the coin looks like when it's returned but I'm guessing it looked better before I submitted it.

On 4/25/2023 at 10:06 AM, Henri Charriere said:

Fair enough, off-topic, but can you -- or anyone else, remember the name of the Secretary of the Treasury whose portrait graced the $10,000 bill, the highest denomination currency to ever circulate publicly in the U.S?

 

No, not without looking it up.  I know President Wilson is on the $100K note and I think Grant is also on the $500 or $1000 though probably wrong about that.

I was looking at currency lots on Stacks last week where they do have $500s and $1000s available but don't remember who is on it.  It would be kind of neat to own one of these bills, but it's a guaranteed financial sinkhole (from currency debasement) and I'd never buy one.

I still carry more folding money than most people, a few hundred usually just in case.  I don't carry any change anymore and haven't for years.  It's not worth anything.  I also avoid paying cash where I will receive change back.  

I've used change so little the last 10+ years I have limited knowledge of the designs on circulating coins.  I know the cent changed in 2009, the nickel in 2004, Sac and Presidential dollars, and recognize some or most of the SQ.

Anything else, I have no idea.

On 4/22/2023 at 6:38 AM, Jason Abshier said:

Oh also I collect German coin books ,catalogs and so on for my numismatic library you can NEVER have enough knowledge on coins always buy the book when you can ! Last year I didn’t buy a single coin , instead I invested into books for knowledge 

 

I have all the books I need for my primary interest, what's available anyway.  I am always looking for auction catalogs that include coins I did not know existed.

As for buying coins, more often than not, I usually have to buy it when it becomes available or else lose out.  

Just to make sure I identified the same listing:

I agree it is a stock photo and can't speak to the actual quality.  I didn't look at the feedback either, though I should have stated that I assumed the seller had a reason for not selling these in a TPG holder since that's how I've normally seen these sold.

What struck me is, "details" or not, 35 with limited to no circulation offered at once.  Though I consider this coin quite common and the TPG counts aren't low in MS, I'd expect it to be more difficult to find a mini hoard like this one.

It's #304462675388.  I tried to past the link but cannot.  Seller has 35 "BU" 1932-d quarters having sold 34.  Don't know anything about the seller but nothing unusual about the listing that I can see.

I know this coin isn't scarce in high grade, but 35 at once seems unusual.

AU-50 isn't even close to "almost uncirculated".  It's actually an XF.  I've seen a lot of variation on AU-53 and AU-55.

On 4/14/2023 at 6:17 PM, Pocket Changer said:

Partly that, but I do own some Italian coins, an old Portuguese coin, a lot of Israeli shekels and aggurot, as well as currencies from many other countries, and this just struck me for some reason. I think part of it also has to do with the fact that it's from Mexico, and Mexico never struck me as any sort of advanced, high level country, and so I would never have expect them to make high level currency as beautiful, but I love it!

On 4/14/2023 at 9:26 AM, EarlyUS.com said:

I guess if you were the thief and decided to spend some, it'd be tough to trace them back to you!

My thoughts too.  That and a crime of opportunity, maybe a partial inside job.

You're presumably surprised because you're used to the mediocrity on US circulating coinage.  There is a lot of mediocrity elsewhere too, but not everywhere.

I'll infer it wasn't made public as it's bad PR.  

On 4/13/2023 at 7:10 PM, RWB said:

Yet several TPGs claim to promote consistency and reliability. Collectors have bought into the scam and trusted the original promises, all of which have been broken. The question should be why do collectors continue to tolerate these abuses, while busily complaining about "gradeflation" and assorted ills?

It's mostly about the money.  If it's their coins, it's deserved and not gradeflation.  If it's someone else's coin, it's someone else's "dreck" holding the value of their coin down.

I own quite a few "older" coins in MS holders, mostly 18th century Spanish colonial pillars from Peru and Mexico.  Under technical grading, I infer most and possibly none are actually UNC.  There are also much older coins, also in MS holders.  I presume somewhere on the coin, there is probably evidence of "handling" over the centuries which if applied universally under market grading, would make grades lower and with it the price level collapse.  I don't own any, but read others write in the past of earlier "AU-66" US coins.

On 4/10/2023 at 12:49 PM, Jason Abshier said:

I’m curious where NGC got their newer price in MS63 at $450 ? 

If it isn't from actual transactions, the prices are just made up.  Sometimes the prices might be (ballpark) accurate by pure coincidence but hardly ever.

That's true of Krause and any successor, as no one can possibly keep it up to date, several hundred thousand coins at multiple price points (grade intervals).  That's several million, changing regularly.

Regularly updated price guides for frequently traded coins are somewhat different, though the value is often coin specific.  Also different for (quasi) bullion.  For everything else, price guides are a relic from a time when communication limitations limited market transparency.  

Price guides are mostly obsolete.

On 4/9/2023 at 8:48 AM, zadok said:

...yep totally understand...the %s u look for were readily available pre-internet days, in some under collected areas still so...it all comes down to what one is looking for n just how bad one wants it, in certain areas n in certain grades price guides r worthless therefore %s worthless, i am routinely paying 300% of price guides for certain coins...price guides often do not address real market prices for certain coins, it only takes a hand full of collectors looking for the same coins when there r only a hand full or less of those out there to blow price guides away...in the US coins there does seem to be some parameters that the market works in cept for the ultra rarities n super grade coins but in many of the foreign areas there r no price guides u either buy it or u dont, i recently paid $2200 for a coin at auction that its last sales record was only $150 , case of pay the price or maybe never see it again...$1495 MS DE ? maybe one with a big hole in it....

I'd gladly pay Krause list for my primary series, especially since my recollection is that the NGC World Price Guide is about the same or unchanged from my 1997 edition.

I'm especially looking for that 1752 Peru 4R listed at something like $1000 in XF when it's not even confirmed to exist.