World Colonial

On 3/3/2023 at 2:34 PM, Coinbuf said:

The last ANA show in Phx was over two decades ago.  I actually think it may have been pre 2000.

It was a big show of some kind, somewhere around 2010 to my recollection but might have been earlier.  I lived there from late 2001 to mid-2011 with a gap over parts of 2004-2005.

I used to live in Phonex metro.  I went to the ANA once but do not remember the year.

ANA was also the last show I went to, 2020 in Atlanta.  To the extent I am able to go in the future, I am going to make sure I attend the first day which in ATL I think was Thursday.  Need to make sure I am there at the opening to have the best chance to find what I really want before anyone else.

On 3/1/2023 at 10:44 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

A quick off-topic...do you think I can find some re-binder on the internet who would re-bind my 1970 Red Book ? 

It's peeling away from the binder and I really want to preserve it and not have it fall apart those rare times when I open it to check a 1970'ish price.

Sorry. no.  A page in one my reference books is coming out too.  I'd like to fix it also if there is a way to do it.  It's a soft cover.

On 3/1/2023 at 10:24 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Huh ?  You think a middle-level manager at a big Fortune 100 company like EK made $500,000 a year ?  I'm thinking less than 1/10th that amount in the early-1960's.  You said the median income was no more than $5,000 in the late-1950's/early-1960's.  Triple it and you are in the $15,000 - $20,000 range would have been a nice income for that time.

No, now.

$15K, $20K, $30K was a lot of money at the time.  It's a lot more than indicated by the change in the CPI or cost of living because of asset inflation.

On 3/1/2023 at 1:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Had to be the same trophy coins of today.  The MCMVII UHR and a few Saints like the 1927-D were selling for over $2,000 by the early-1960's in what would today be MS-65 condition.

I don't have my 1963 or 1965 Red Books with me now.  To my knowledge, the primary difference between now and then is the price inflation from TPG and specialization.  There has been no preference change between US series, contrary to what I've read inferred numerous times.

On 3/1/2023 at 1:21 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think more, WC.  He may have worked for the Eastman side of Eastman Kodak, no idea.  But he had to have had a good salary.  I'll ask my aunt next time I see her what my uncle's friends made who worked at Kodak and Xerox in Upstate New York.

"Middle management" to me in a company of that size is probably $500K.

On 2/28/2023 at 3:56 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

CW says he took out a 2nd mortgage to bid on the Farouk coins in 1956.

It appears he spent about $3,000 a year for 30+ years buying coins.  So he had leeway to buy a coin that he thought was worth $300 if it went to $500 or so...but if a coin he wanted for $500 went for $2,000 he'd be screwed.  This is where his famous bidding strategy came into play, I guess. 

1956 must be right.  I think Farouk was deposed in 1954.

Fortunately, few coins sold for more than $500 or so at the time.  By 1965, to my recollection, the 1916-D Mercury dime already listed for $1000 in UNC in the Red Book.

On 2/28/2023 at 12:11 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I assumed he was high-ranking but not at the top ranks of Eastman Kodak.  I assumed he made at least~$20,000-$30,000 a year in the late-1950's/early-1960's as he was a chemical engineer and my uncle was one also and he made a pretty good living -- not rich but very comfortable.

Those amounts were one heck of a lot of money at the time, more than appears inflation adjusted because of the exponential rise in asset prices since then.

You may remember my prior post where I wrote that the home my mother grew up in sold for $60K in 1962 or 1963.  4BR 3000 SQFT on six acres then I think (nine prior to eminent domain to build I-75) in zip code 30327, still one of the most expensive zip codes in the southeast.

I assume he made a "middle management" income by today's standards.  Maybe somewhat less due to his lifestyle.

On 2/27/2023 at 7:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I believe the fact that he WAS just an average middle-age worker who spent his discretionary income (and inheritances,

I think this is mostly myth.  Are you familiar with the economics of the time? 

According to Lundberg's "The Rich and the Super Rich" published in 1964, median household income was something like $3,000 or $4,000.  He included different dates (like 1958 to maybe 1962) so it's not exactly consistent but you get the idea.

He also specifically states that the top 1.6% of all US households had a net worth of $60,000+.  This also somewhere around 1960.

Sandon's post states that he bought most of his coins prior to 1970, which makes sense considering that this preceded the financialization of "collecting". Additionally, unless he received a noticeable inheritance for the time, there is no conceivable way he could have spent anywhere near $100K (even pro-rated) with a typical middle-class job.

The accounts I have read stated he mortgaged his house to attend and buy from the Farouk auction in Egypt, but there was no housing bubble equity for him to access in 1954, even if it appreciated noticeably.  Besides, airfares and international travel was presumably "stupidly" expensive by current standards, especially adjusted for inflation.

This means that he must have been relatively high-income for the time and that this "regular guy" perception has to mostly be myth.

I guess it must be the uneven wear on the obverse accounting for the grade.

All I can say is, if I ever buy one of the type, I hope I can find a VF-35 like yours.

On 2/27/2023 at 1:08 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Pittman was in the right place at the exact right time.  His collection was worth MILLIONS and I think someone once figured out that he made like 20% per year on all the $$$ he spent on coins.  He just happened to buy stuff before the post-WW II Baby Boomers and other demographic tailwinds propelled the value of the coins up....then all his gold and silver not only benefitted from those as well, but also the end of controlled gold and silver prices.

My recollection is that he spent about $100,000 on his collection which later sold for $30MM.  I also read that he worked at Eastman Kodak.  I don't know his positions, but don't assume he was just some average white-collar employee.  Depending upon the allocation of his outlay over this period, he would have had to be quite well-off (relatively) to spend that kind of money.  Remember, we're talking about median household incomes of a few thousand or slightly more over much of this period.  I read that he mortgaged his house to attend the 1954 Farouk auction, but it would have taken a lot more than that to spend $100K for a run-of-the-mill upper middle-class collector.

No, it didn't hurt that he bought most of it before the beginning of financialization.

On 2/25/2023 at 5:53 PM, powermad5000 said:

I'm no expert on Lincoln Proofs, but it could always be possible that a matte proof somehow got accidentally put into circulation. I once got a statehood quarter proof in my change at a McDonalds drive through window. Not likely, but not impossible scenario either.

There are tens of millions of proof SQ.  How many MPL?  Somewhere around 20,000?  It's also been over a century since the last one was struck and all of them are worth real money while proof SQ isn't worth much of anything.  Someone might have intentionally spent the proof SQ.

On 2/25/2023 at 9:18 AM, Lem E said:

I don’t know. Those rims look pretty sharp and the doubling looks like a pretty good match. Wouldn’t that be a hell of a find. I’m interested in seeing where this goes.

Could be, but it's not one I collect.  

I'm not proficient at identifying Lincoln proofs of this period (1909-1916) but your coin doesn't look like a proof to me.  It looks like a lightly circulated circulation strike, an AU.

If you really have what you think, send it in for grading but I don't think you will like the result.

That's a really nice one for the type.  I'm going to say low AU now (maybe AU-50 or AU-53), though there appears to be noticeable wear on the portrait hair.  Late 90s, something like XF-40.

It's also an example of what's out there previously not in a TPG holder.

On 2/23/2023 at 12:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Again...if the government was in the right, they wouldn't be digging up whatever they found at 2 AM in the stealth of night.  

Everything any government does always makes sense once anyone accepts that it's the ultimate criminal organization.  It's just that its activities are usually declared "legal".

On 2/22/2023 at 4:15 PM, VKurtB said:

BTW, ALL U.S $20 coins are upscale, Saints AND Liberties. 

Given the TPG population counts, most of both have to be owned by stacker type collectors or "investors".  Last I checked, the 1904 alone had 300,000 or so graded.  Multiple Saints are in the six figures.  Quite a few more in the five figures.  Maybe something like 10% are owned by type collectors, individually. Another noticeable minority as random purchases.  Few series collectors of either.  It's far too expensive.

On 2/22/2023 at 4:15 PM, VKurtB said:

The “target” market for an ANA show is the collector whose purchase budget is $200-$500 for the whole stinking show. 

Must be mostly dealer to dealer buying then.  Each national show I have attended (all but one ANA) had a "budget" section where I recall the inventory is mostly below $300 per coin but this seems to be a minority of the tables.

On 2/20/2023 at 6:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I agree with WC that a person who does coin collecting activity or reading WEEKLY or even MONTHLY is certainly likely to know about Saints and/or Double Eagles.  For myself, I could go a few YEARS without doing any buying or looking.

When I was 12 shortly after returning to the US, I was already familiar with all US Mint type coins and some of the others in the Red Book too.  I don't think this is typical of most collectors but doubt it's that unusual either.

Now, I've learned more about specific US coins within different series from looking at auctions, the TPG data, and PCGS Coin Facts.  I don't collect any of it, but this isn't necessary to know something about it.

On 2/22/2023 at 3:27 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm not sure I get what you are saying....you think the bulk of coin sales are not done by the auction companies ?  On a dollar basis, I'd probably disagree.  Heritage sells hundreds/thousands of items each week alone.  Maybe if you include ANY coin sale then the vast majority of Americans buying stuff from the Mint or their local bank might dwarf what I consider "true" numimsatics via sale online.

I might be wrong, but yes, I am saying that.

It also depends upon what you mean by "auction companies".  I am excluding eBay from this definition, and I infer they easily sell more than all US auction firms (Heritage, Stacks, GC, Legend, Goldberg) combined.

Look at Heritage's annual report where they report annual value of prices realized by category.  I don't know what it was last year, but a few years ago, it was somewhere around $300MM (or $400MM tops) I believe for US coins.  Not sure it included their online marketplace but that's a lot less than auctions.

It's not as much as you seem to think.  Like as much as one or two mega priced art paintings.

I've estimated 2MM "active" US based collectors in the past.  Whatever the number, most are recreational hobbyists, not the type buying the coins you read about especially on the PCGS Forum.  Heritage still sells a large number of low priced (below $100) coins to my knowledge, but they are trying to move away from this type of consignor with their increased minimum buyer fee of $29.

On 2/22/2023 at 3:27 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wonder if those people sticking to < $300 coins think they are making investments in stuff that will appreciate, like the State Quarters programs ?

No, I don't think so.  I don't think most collectors think in these terms.  It's a hobby, not an "investment" to them.  You didn't answer, but in a prior reply here, I inferred this has to do with how you started collecting and the types of coins you buy.  Very few collectors proportionately buy the coins you do, except maybe Morgan dollars at the low end.

In this thread, I estimated that the majority spend something like $500 or less per year.  It's probably less than this on average.  $500 per year over decades equal $10,000, $20,000 or more.

I don't believe most collectors are spending that much, no way.

On 2/21/2023 at 7:48 PM, VKurtB said:

AMEN TO THAT! Yes, if you’re one of the über-wealthy whose tastes run to slabbed stuff from over-hyped Heritage sales, good for you, I suppose. I prefer to pay waaaaaaay less for my Pennsylvania sourced raw material, and send in some of the stuff to NGC myself. And a “high end” buyer’s premium is 10%. Some have 0%. 

You don't have to be uber wealthy to buy from Heritage.  I've spent less than $15,000 since I first bought from them in 2006, some since sold.  Average price is around $300 with many less than $100.

I'd buy from local dealers (graded or not) IF they had what I want to buy but they don't.  National shows (somewhat more than half a dozen) I've attended have something in my secondary collections, but not my primary interest.  

I agree the typical collector doesn't need to buy from Heritage or a source like it, but that's because what they collect is easy to find.  Lately, I've bought more from Stacks than anywhere else because that's who sells it.  Next month, it will be Aureo & Calico in Spain.

On 2/20/2023 at 6:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Maybe 15-20 years ago, but not know.  The online marketers DOMINATE this hobby nowadays.

Heritage and the few other larger auction firms represent a minority of annual coin sales because the vast majority of collectors are low budget collectors buying cheaper coins.  On the PCGS forum, a coin dealer has claimed that 80% of collectors won't pay more than $300 for a single coin which is consistent with the "budget section" at national shows, last time I went anyway.  Nothing new in that.

On 2/21/2023 at 10:11 AM, VKurtB said:

You really wasted THAT MUCH of your valuable resources rehashing Heritage sales???? Oy vey!!!

Took me a few hours which I can do while simultaneously doing something else.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

How many of them are even AWARE of Saints ?  Or Double Eagles in general ?

I assume essentially every US collector is aware of both.  If they aren't, it's almost certainly the bullion stacker type that isn't.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Lots of bullion buyers....might buy more expensive coins if less frequently IF they knew about them and had a long-term plan to accumulate.  I certainly do....but you have to like the coins to buy them every few years or maybe 1-2 annually, tops, instead of buying 5-15 coins of other types that cost less.

Predominant bullion coin buyers seem to be more interested in making or at least not losing money.  Why else wouldn't they buy it, as they can obviously afford a reasonably wide variety of coinage?  They aren't candidates to buy most other coins because other coins don't have equivalent marketability. 

It's their psychology, not lack of resources or just lack of knowledge.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

.lots of lower-end coin collectors.....might buy more expensive coins if less frequently IF they knew about them and had a long-term plan to accumulate.  I certainly do....but you have to like the coins to buy them every few years or maybe 1-2 annually, tops, instead of buying 5-15 coins of other types that cost less.

No, not really.  It's unlikely lack of knowledge is the driving factor for more than a very low proportion. When it isn't a lack of money, it's overwhelmingly lack of interest and loss aversion.

It's reasonable to make this assumption when it comes to buying the types of coins I've been buying since 1998, but not when spending more on US coinage generally or even many non-US coins.  The coins are overwhelmingly easy to buy and information isn't that limited, if at all.

Look at your own collecting.  From your description, you're not interested in buying "meaningfully" valued coins which aren't liquid.  You've mentioned buying Saints, Morgan dollars, and NCLT.  These are exactly the types of coins any collector buys who wants to buy more expensive coins while minimizing the probability of loss.

Most others seem to do it through low budgets, including treating it as a consumption expense.  The financial promoters of the hobby are marketing to these people and so is the US Mint, but only a low percentage are candidates to spend a lot more.  They aren't "investing" and would rather spend it elsewhere, assuming they have it.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:09 PM, VKurtB said:

I really don’t give a rip, 💩, or bust what’s happening in or around Heritage. That’s an infinitesimally small sliver of the hobby. I’m talking about central Pennsylvania, which probably has more collectors per capita than anywhere else in the country. Literally DOZENS of auctions, coin clubs, and local shows. There were over 75 public auctions with coins an easy drive from Harrisburg just in 2022. This is VOLUME. It’s also what counts. 

I get that you dislike my replies to your opinion.  Nothing new about that.  I contradict what people want to hear and believe regularly.  What I told you in my last reply is an accurate reflection of how collectors view collecting.  I provided four specific reasons why "popular" doesn't necessarily equal preferred and each one is easy to demonstrate.

Your local auctions are a better indicator than Heritage?  Great, why don't you post a review covering the last 30 years segmented by volume and prices like I did from the Heritage archives?  If it contradicts Heritage, then you'll have a point.  Otherwise, it's just your unsubstantiated opinion.

On 2/19/2023 at 8:27 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You mean like all the Proof and Mint sets of the 1960's and 1970's ?

Yes, that's exactly my point of reference but per my posts here, for somewhat different reasons.