World Colonial

To answer one of the OP questions, agree with others that it's not unusual for the same coin to reappear at auction in close proximity.

As to why it happened on this coin, it must be the toning and maybe the sticker, if the prior buyer bought it "cheap", as I don't know where it sold or the price. 

Heritage shows the last sale closest to this coin (a toned MS-66+ CAC) selling for $1980 in 7/19 whereas all more recent sales (without one or more of these three attributes) sell for about 15% to 25%.  There is also a sale of an untoned MS-66+ in 3/19 for $3600 when the counts were noticeably lower.  (The MS-67 count is 3 and 1.  So maybe a potential upgrade?)

As an MS-66, PCGS now shows 99 grading events while NGC records 43.  As an MS-66+, PCGS shows 16 and NGC 6.

On 1/6/2023 at 11:35 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Some of these shows just have the most popular coins, often bullion or quasi-bullion.  If you are into more exotic or rare coins like Flying Cents or Gold Dollars or whatnot, the smaller shows have very little there.  You will find tons of Morgans and some with gold coins including Saints and Liberty DEs.

Dealers market to their customer base.  No reason to expect anything else.  One dealer on the PCGS forum once (or a few times) mentioned that 80% of the collector base doesn't spend more than $300 on a single coin.  I think that's a good estimate, as it's consistent with the budget section at large regional and national shows or at least was in 2020 (last one I attended).

On 1/6/2023 at 11:35 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Remember, it takes time for them to pack up stuff and put it into cases.  They can tell what sells or gets inquiries and if they bring a case of a certain coins and they NEVER get asked about the stuff in it, they're not gonna keep bringing it.

It's more than that.  It's that they almost certainly don't ever have customers for the majority of US type, like the gold dollar example but probably would have one for the FE cent.  It's either too expensive for their customers or they have no interest in it.  Even more so for world and ancient, as the typical collector wouldn't even recognize these coins.

My primary dealers in ATL back in the late 70's were probably typical.  Neither generally had coins valued maybe over $100 and it was all US, except for "junk bin" stuff. 

If I wanted to see a wider variety of US type, had to go to World Numismatics.  I don't remember all the specifics, but they had coins like Bust dollars and a 1795 FH half, though only circulated ("original" looking) coins.  The owner did tell me once he had a customer who spent $300/week which was big money for a collector at the time, so he could probably find most US coinage if someone wanted it.  He didn't sell any non-US.

Of the 19 dealers on the list from my last post, I'd guess Larry Jackson (a PNG dealer) is the only one who offers a wide variety, but still US only. 

Back in 2004 or so, I took a trip to Helen, GA (a tourist town) and there was a coin shop there that carried expensive stuff.  I thought it very unusual for a place like that.  One I remember was a "gem looking" seated dollar (proof I think).  I don't know if he is around anymore.

The only local coin show I ever went to is included in the link below, back in 1991 or 1992.  Approximately same number of dealers at the time as described in the link.  I went once or twice.  (Website claims 35+ but only 19 identified as attending this month.)

For me now, it's not worth going, as I already know they will have nothing for sale I currently collect that I also want to buy.  I'm also not paying to park and not about to take the local public transport either.

For everyone else, I agree it's worth trying once.

Monthly Greater Atlanta Coin Shows (atlcoin.com)

I have also considered attending a meeting at the largest coin club in the metro area but never have.  Could do it now but just haven't gotten around to it.

Saudi Arabia's love for soccer could cause ripple effects (cnbc.com)

No, there is no conceivably comparable model which will ever apply to coins or other mass-produced collectibles, no matter how creative anyone tries to be.

Direct quote from the article:

“Sports investment is attractive. You won’t necessarily get a substantial return on your investment financially, given the high prices they are likely to have to go and pay for a club of that stature, but the non-financial return on investment as we’ve seen is a positive one.”

On 1/5/2023 at 4:38 PM, zadok said:

...just out of curiosity re catalogs, have u ever looked thru the virgil brand collection sales to see if the obscure areas u collect were in his collection?...the ANA library may be able to assist u if u were interested....

No, but that's one I probably should since his collection was huge.

The Patrick collection is another, but I don't need the hard copy since it's all on-line.

On 1/5/2023 at 3:23 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If you haven't seen this catalog it's about 125 pages long.  Sometimes a page has 2-4 items listed when there is a pricey coin with a description of a few paragraphs....other times, it's just 20-25 rows of inexpensive small denomination coins costing about $10-$15 on average.

The total raised was just under $135,000....I'll guestimate about 1,500 to 2,000 individual items auctioned off.

No, I have not seen it.

Hardly any catalogue of US coinage interests me anymore.  Almost exclusively repetitive sales of coins I see all the time or regularly but even if actually scarce, often enough.  Practically every US coin by now is in the Heritage archives, just not in a specific grade or maybe some specialization.

The US coinage of most interest to me is almost never discussed on coin forums: Territorial gold, the few CSA, and a relatively low number of colonial.  I'm interested in discussing other collector's interests here, but not taking any of my time to read up on it.

The primary interest I'd have in this type of catalogue is due to the reason I replied to your post yesterday (historical prices) but that's more academic to me than of any practical use.

On 1/5/2023 at 12:04 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I noticed that lots of coins, except for a few higher-priced coins and gold rarities, sold for LESS than the estimated price (not surprising, sellers are prone to give high estimates).  I didn't tabulate, but actual Selling Prices above the Estimates were definitely fewer than vice-versa.

I believe most if not all of the coins you specifically listed most collectors (including you) will consider "rare" and if not, certainly "scarce".

It's an inference only but maybe as opposed to now and recently where estimates are intentionally low, it was set too high.  Or another reason is that they just didn't know due to lack of data and a less predictable sales history.

On 1/5/2023 at 11:12 AM, zadok said:

...all of the coins on ur list r currently 5-6 figure coins a couple creeping into 7 figure territory...the 1873-CC NA dime will be sold at auction later this month, one of the 1802 half dimes just sold in the past couple months....

The grades weren't stated, so without this info, probably the Liberty Head gold, 1819 half eagle, and 1802 half dime are five figures.

Pretty sure all the others are easily six figures, or more.

1815 half eagle almost certainly over $1MM and same for 1829.  The other three maybe if MS-65 or better.  I haven't checked recently.

On 1/4/2023 at 8:43 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'll check my catalog and if there's more "meat" I left out, post it verbatim here.

Off the top of your head....all those quotes and sales prices we both referenced...that was from 1950....where would most of them be today ?  10-fold increase.....100-fold increase ?

It depends upon the TPG grade, as usual.  Virtually all over a 100X increase.   If the grade is high enough, over 1000X.  Only exceptions I can think of offhand are the Pan-Pac set and 1802 half dime.

My recollection on the 1853 half might be wrong too.  I recall one of these has four known, but I might have stated the wrong one.

On 3/11/2022 at 11:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Biggest Sellers & Surprises, 1950 Menjou Auction:

1802 Half Dime...at the time, they said no coins better than FINE were found and one in 1907 got $500.  But this coin was estimated $ $750 and went for $425.  According to the book, only 16 known (still the case ?).

 I commented earlier but missed this post.  This is quite interesting.  My understanding is that someone (I think the author of the die variety reference) identified 35-40 specific coins, in 1935 or near it.  Not sure how this reconciles to the comments in this catalog.

On 3/11/2022 at 11:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1894-S Dime: 24 minted, only 7 said to exist at the time (still the case ?).  This coin was supposedly a proof.  Estimate @ $2,500 but went for $1,850.

Nine known to my recollection.

On 3/11/2022 at 11:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1873-CC Dime:  One of the FEW coins that went above the estimate...and boy did it !!  Estimate was $1,000 it went for $3,650.  Without arrows, described as a superb gem on par with the 1804 Dollar or 1913 Nickel.

It's unique as a sub-type.  (There is also a "with arrows" version which is scarce but not rare.)

On 3/11/2022 at 11:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1876-CC 20 cent piece (never even knew they made those !!)....estimated for $2,000 but went for $1,325.  10 specimens believed at the time.

15-20 now known to my recollection.  It's a coin whose relative prominence seems to have declined substantially since I started collecting in 1975, probably due to the middle-of-the-road preference for the denomination and lower emphasis on absolute rarity.

On 3/11/2022 at 11:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1838 New Orleans Half Dollar:  Beistle (1929) said 3 pieces; K&K said 6-7.  One sold at WGC for $1,600, Atwater $2,200, and Neil estimate was $3,000...this one ended up going for $1,650 despite estimate of $3,000.

Proof only date with a recorded mintage of 20.  Nine known to my recollection.  It's actually more common than any other Capped Bust half proof to my knowledge but has a much higher prominence as a proof only coin.

On 3/11/2022 at 11:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1853 Half Dollar: The Standard Catalogue had no value for this rare coin so no estimate...went for $890.  The WGC, Atwater, Neil, Dunham, Geis, Higgy, Olden, and Stickney collections didn't have one.

This has to be the without "arrows and rays" sub-type.  The 53-O has four now known to my recollection.

On 3/11/2022 at 11:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Panama Pacific Set:  $1,350 estimate, $1,115 actual sale price.

$4 Gold Stella:  $550 estimate, $500 actual price.   Latin Monetary Standard creation coin.

The worst value from your list.  Assuming it's the 1879 Flowing Hair, $4 since before I became a collector must be due to inclusion in the Red Book and from it, in type sets.  I consider it one of the most overrated coins in all of US numismatics.  It's a common pattern.

Very late in seeing this thread but to answer the OP's question, the prices are just "made up".  There is no other explanation since it's obvious that it's not feasible to base the catalog price on actual sales.  The prices for South Africa in my 1998 and 2010 editions are also identical, or near it.

It's also not possible to provide a market price for coins which (might) have never sold publicly or do not even exist.

Examples of the first are most of the coins in my primary series, Lima and Potosi pillars.  These very infrequently sell but virtually never in the listed grades (up to XF).

On the latter, Krause has an entry for the 1752 Peru 4R.  I'll buy as many as anyone will sell me at the catalog price, except that the mintage is recorded as 81 and there are zero confirmed.  One is rumored to exist.

Krause also lists 1933, 1934, and 1936 South Africa circulation strike farthings.  These are also included in the local Hern/Randburg/Kaplan catalogs (their version of the Red Book) but no one on their coin forum knew anything about these coins, until NCG graded the 1936.  NGC has also now graded one 1934 but still none of the 1933.  There are also several Bolivian Republic coins I'm not sure exist either: 1882, 1887 and 1889 50 centavos.  Norweb owned the 1887 Boliviano now in the ANS collection.

On 12/30/2022 at 1:58 PM, RWB said:

The original question came from the observation that after 10+ years, very little from new research books or articles had entered "numismatic knowledge" -- even for major auction companies.

I presume by now there is a reference (a real one, not predominantly a price guide) for every US series up through State Quarters.

For the series I primarily collect, the most useful data is the survey.  It's not statistically representative, but it does give a reasonable indication of the relative scarcity (which I mostly knew already).  For any future update, I recommended to the author to add counterfeit detection, strike quality (by date if possible), and a quality distribution of the sample.  It would also help if the data included all known specimens which I don't believe it does.  The information I am most interested in is, what is available to be bought to be bought so that I can complete my collection.

It would also help if the books in which I have an actual interest were more available.  As examples, I'd buy Fuld's Patter Coinage of Peter Getz and Bowers' 1822 half eagle if I could find it, but I cannot.  But I'm not paying the potentially ridiculous secondary market prices it will likely take to buy either when I don't even collect something.  One of mine purportedly sells for $400 now.  I bought it for $65 in 2002 and have multiple books for this series, so wouldn't pay this even if I did not own it.

On 12/30/2022 at 12:34 AM, RWB said:

That's about the best we have absent full transcriptions. At the least, you can now do "grunt work" from the comfort of your own home.

For the research I do, I go through each journal and extract items of interest (present or future), then give the extracts a descriptive file name and a coded date.

Yes, I understand.

The optimal alternative is to create a (fully) indexed DB, but I wouldn't expect that.  It's too manually intensive.

On 12/27/2022 at 8:00 PM, RWB said:

Try this for auction catalogs:

https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/auctioncompanies?hpp=true&page=3&activeOnly=true

 

And this for US Mint (skip down to where it says "US National Archives."

https://nnp.wustl.edu/Library/Archives?searchLetter=U

Yes, that's where I went.

I wouldn't expect anything else but scrolling through endless pages of PDF documents is really tedious, especaiially when you get to the end and find nothing.

On 12/28/2022 at 7:06 AM, Zebo said:

 Either way is fine - why not do both? 

It's a function of finite resources. For 99%+, if they spend their limited budget buying a set of Virginia half penny varieties, they have less for everything else.

I used to buy a wider range than I do now, until I accepted that I don't have enough money to collect random coins of temporary interest.  I'm trying to get rid of these coins I already own now, not add more of it.

Doing it also results in noticeable "slippage" which means I can buy fewer of the coins I really want later.  

Ultimately, it comes down to what kind of collection someone wants for their budget. I'd never do this because there are many other coins which I consider far more interesting and distinctive available for the same money.

I've only looked through the auction catalog archive to attempt to identify prior sales in my primary interest.

It's a good resource for those who collect something that is more widely collected.  I didn't find much of anything and yes, there are plenty of catalogues in NNP, though of the few firms who sell my series, only Stacks (legacy firm, not the current one) is included.

I've mentioned my step grandmother's collection which I viewed once in December 1975.  She had several hundred and gave me a few, though I have no idea which varieties she owned.  My two or three, grading in the vicinity of VG, were the more common Red Book variety.

I've seen variety collections of other colonial coinage, like Pine Tree shillings and Fugio cents.

Challenging?  Presumably

Interesting?  I can only think of a few things in coin collecting more boring than collecting so many of the same coin with such minor variations.  I can think of thousands of coins (literally) I'd rather own than 23 of the same one.

I've looked at the prices in higher grades (MS) on occasion and it's one I could conceivably (though unlikely) buy at some point.

On 12/26/2022 at 10:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If you go by the latest population census by PCGS and NGC....you have 755,082 and 772,203 grading events respectively (total = 1,527,285).....estimate out the resubmissions from NGC holders at 40% and you have 1,218,404.

Not sure about 40%, maybe.  Population counts are overly concentrated in a relatively low number of dates where it's marginal to resubmit.  1904 alone accounts for an outsized proportion.  I doubt very many there.

On 12/26/2022 at 10:13 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Net-Net:  Lots of Liberty DEs graded and probably many more out there.  

I'm confident you are right here.

The more common dates are so common, the accuracy of the population counts doesn't really matter.  It matters to the "key" and "semi-key" dates, even though most of these shouldn't be that hard to buy either.  Once a population gets around 100 for a coin in this price range, it's more about having the money and whether the buyer can find one meeting their narrow criteria.

On 12/25/2022 at 6:35 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Pretty sure....Saints better known....see lots more supply at LCS and coin shows and on-line....anecdotal commentary from various sources says Saint-Gaudens collectors outnumber LH DE collectors since so many LH DE's are virtually unobtainable in MS and super-expensive for various years/mints.

Key is at what numerical level are the Type Collectors (the middle group) satiated....Registry Collectors for each super-competitive....it's the Investor Collectors who go for coins like the 1904 Liberty DE and 1924 Saint DE that will tell you how many serious collectors (non-bullion) there are.

I think you are right for the series as a whole.

My guess is that many collectors may limit it to Type 3 as it's a lot more feasible.

Edit:  Actually, looking at the population reports, Type 2s might be easier.  The 70-CC looks to be the only one to be very scarce while there are more dates for Type 3s.

On 12/25/2022 at 12:25 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I get where you are coming from, but isn't a (slowly) rising price level better than a FALLING one or a flat one for decades ?

Slowly rising is probably better from the standpoint of most collectors.  That's my guess.

Garrett isn't anywhere near the worst.  Still, those who agree with him are more interested in maximizing prices and profits because it's a business to them first, not a hobby.

Would I like it if the value of coin collection fell in half?  I'm not selling my primary series (by choice) and it probably would mean fewer coins are available versus more.

I'd actually consider other coins as side collections (not my primary interest), if the prices were more "reasonable".  There are too many coins and series which are not "reasonably" priced anymore (not just US) because too much of the price is based upon the holder label.  I'm not just referring to 30, 40, or 50 years either.  I'm referring to 20 years or less.

I'm not spending thousands, $10K, $20K or more on a series or a bunch of "one offs" which collectively used to sell for (a lot) less because the coins aren't remotely interesting enough.

On 12/25/2022 at 12:25 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Look, I don't really care if my coins go up or down in value and I guess you can say it's in my best interest if gold and coin prices are flat for the next 10-15 years while I accumulate them and then they miraculously triple in price during my Final Year.  

But I don't think that will happen. 

Yes, I agree with you, accumulate until you sell.  But a small though noticeable proportion are interested in maximum appreciation all the time.

On 10/28/2022 at 11:40 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Jeff Garrett has written several pieces in 2021 and 2022 saying that our hobby has definitely seen an influx of participants and/or $$$ chasing the same number of coins (hence higher prices):

https://rarecoingallery.com/articles-by-jeff-garrett/the-rare-coin-market-is-hot-heres-how-you-can-make-it-work-for-you/

Garrett is a financial promoter first and a collector distant second.  This is how he writes his articles for Coin Week, which I presume are the same ones on his site.  In every article of his I have ever read he's always measuring the "health of the hobby" by the price level.

If Garrett gets his wish, the traditional collector is going to get priced out of many coins they previously could afford. Yet just like forum members, I also already know he's going to claim how the "leftovers" will still supposedly be so interesting.

On 12/25/2022 at 2:02 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

A Michael Jordan rookie card is under $200,000 down from $720,000 back in 2021.  NFTs aren't in the news anymore, neither are tokens, and crypto is for all the wrong reasons. 

So, now it's still over 100X overpriced even after a 70%+ decline.  Last I read, 316 PSA-10 with probably many, many more.

On 12/25/2022 at 2:02 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Looking at the price bubble in Michael Jordan 10/9/8 cards -- dragged up by the 10's, free $$$, stay-at-homes, and easy money in RobinHood and crypto -- it's no wonder that the card for a guy who retired over 20 years ago got so hot.  

I think ESPN airing his games when the NBA wasn't playing had something or a lot to do with it.

On 12/25/2022 at 2:02 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

When I was collecting in the 1980's and 1990's....aside from Mickey Mantle, nobody cared about guys who retired 20 years earlier in MLB or the NBA.  

That's probably because they weren't "hard core" fans and may not have been much of a fan at all.  In the past, baseball's history was an asset which distinguished it from the other major team sports.  All of the sports have changed, but at least baseball still resembles the game it used to be. Different style of the game and even different rules for the others.

It's debatable how many of the "old time" baseball players would be good enough to play now.  However, go back even a few decades from 1977 when I started watching and not even one NFL player would have a moonshots chance in you know what of making any team.  NBA maybe somewhat better but I doubt it.  I don't think most of the NFL players from the late 70's could play their own positions now or recently.  Either too slow or too small.

I read baseball history as a young fan.  I tried reading NFL but had no interest.  Never was interested in the others.

On 12/23/2022 at 7:00 PM, VKurtB said:

There is ABSOLUTELY NO HONEST WAY this creep raised this kind of bond. He’s added to the pile of people who need to see the inside of cells, perhaps including the Southern District of NY Judge. This guy is being protected by EXTREMELY well connected people. 

I agree.  It's the most logical explanation how he got bail at all.

Still, if he swindled his customers to this extent, wouldn't surprise me if does the same thing to his parents, if he can find a way to get out of the country again.

On 12/23/2022 at 6:25 PM, VKurtB said:

His parents are professors. People with law degrees who wanted to not scrounge for billable hours become professors. They did not buy a $250 million home, even near Palo Alto. That’s “hottest rapper in the world” real estate. 

I haven't read anything indicating the parents own a $250MM home but maybe I missed it.  My understanding is that it's just part of the collateral.  The CNBC article I read didn't indicate where the money came from though it did mention the parent's house.

Being supposedly down to his last $100K, I'm curious to know where he could have legitimately got this amount, if the charges are valid.  I'm assuming it's actually customer funds (again) which he is legally able to use under the presumption of innocence.