GoldFinger1969

I learned alot in this thread, thanks to everybody !!  

On 11/7/2023 at 8:44 PM, dprince1138 said:

There seems to be different considerations when grading a coin.  The reference that I use indicates that there should be half of the mint luster at AU50, which is the lowest AU grade.  However, on other sources, there is the indication that the luster does not need to be considered until grading in the UNC range.

I'm not proficient at grading, but I would guess that at AU-50 you have way less than half of remaining luster.  You might have that at AU-58. 

I think you can see some loss of luster in the low-60's.

So "Machine Doubling" is more-or-less a lighter version of DDO, folks ?

MD isn't worth much as an error variety...but DDO is...is that right ?

I'm not an expert on DDO or on the Libertad's (though I have a few)...but I think this is not pronounced enough to qualify as DDO.  Not seeing it throughout or enough.  

I'll wait to hear from one of the "experts."  

On 11/7/2023 at 12:33 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

If you want to do something REALLY meaningful in the hobby, create a pricing database for Civil War Tokens by variety.  Pull in scripts that would bring-in the auction data from several sources and aggregate on a monthly/quarterly basis.

We have the database for that -- and all the coins.  It's just a question of AGGREGATING it and then giving a realistic number/approximation to the question "what is the most recent price/value" ?

Isn't that what the cloud stocks and "data aggregators" are supposed to do ?  Grab data...crunch it.  We have dozens/hundreds of data points...it's mostly in 5-6 websites including this and ATS...HA Archives, GC, SB, ebay, not sure you need Etsy and/or Craiglist.  Maybe there are electronic ECNs used dealer-to-dealer but that might be from the 1980's and 1990's pre-internet.

Grab the data for a particular coin...filter out or include any variable like a "+" or CAC designation if present....create an algorithim to weight a few recent sales vs. sales 6 months ago....vs. sales 1-2 years ago...throw out the outliers....etc...etc.  

This is what AI was created for, hopefully it's part of our arsenal in a few years.

On 11/7/2023 at 1:58 AM, VKurtB said:

Sounds like Olympic diving scoring to me.

I'm just saying it would be very helpful.  No idea if it is technologically possible. 

Suppose I wanted to know the price or value on a common Saint or Morgan.  Right now, I punch up 1 or 2 sites and get the most recent sales or current offers.  Instead, imagine a program that was able to input the necessary search fields at the HA Archives....get a few dozen sales going back 2 years....weight the most recent, delete an outlier or one with CAC.....yes, complicated but isn't that what AI is suppose to be able to do, thousands of computations a second ?

Sandon, if you are submitting the Carson City Morgan, given the submittance costs, what do you think is the floor for FMV ?

Maybe make another Ultra High Relief coin....but this time, recreate the original MCMVII dimensions.  I guess that would mean it would have to be 90% gold, 10% copper to increase the size of the alloy.

On 11/6/2023 at 12:54 PM, RaritiesValue.com said:

As many of you may recall, we launched www.RaritiesValue.com a couple of months ago as a free tool to manage your coin collection or rare coin inventory. We are now working on accounting software for dealers to help manage sales, expenses, profits and invoices. We hope to finish this module and push it live before the end of the year.  MY QUESTION TO YOU: What are problems that you face as a rare coin dealer, collector, or investor? What tools can we build to help make your life easier?

I'll tell you what would be a KICK*** feature that might or might not be feasible using today's emerging AI technology.  If the program had that macro feature of Excel which is able to "grab" live data -- Excel can grab it from Bloomberg, from the Web (like stock quotes from Yahoo Finance, etc) -- and input it into a matrix to develop data points of interest to collectors or dealers.  You could be the default program for collectors much like Bloomberg is the default program for fixed-income/bond investors.

Getting prices -- historical and recent -- is something that is very time consuming.  If your feature could grab the data from various websites -- NGC, PCGS, HA archives, Ebay, GC, etc. -- and then download them and maybe "crunch" them in a smart manner (i.e., throw out highest/lowest 2 prices, average, weigh recent sales more, etc.) -- I think that would be a kick- feature. 

Maybe it's not currently (technologically) feasible...maybe you can't access some of the data at certain sites....I don't know, I'm not an expert in this stuff.  But an interactive matrix that could access electronic websites that dealers use and the ones I listed above would really be useful to folks.

I just know that if it had that feature....and it if was able to download HUNDREDS of data points in a second instead of me/others having to punch up lots of searches over multiple websites... that would be one kick*** feature, one I would STRONGLY consider using...and paying for. 

On 11/6/2023 at 9:11 PM, RaritiesValue.com said:

Thank you for your input on the thread! I pay attention to the helpful comments and the not so helpful. I'm doing my best to learn what I can and improve my project accordingly!  

Are you developing software for purchase or is it freeware ?  Is it in beta testing ?

Roger's book has MS-65 1924 commons going for about $1,000 on average from 1998-2000 (a bit lower in each year).  Gold was about $350 for most of this period, falling eventually to just below $300 in late-1999/early-2000.

Questions:  First, does anybody recall what high-priced MS-66 or MS-67's were selling for when gold was that cheap ?  Obviously, they would not collapse in price as much as bullion or quasi-bullion coins.  Wonder how much they sold for, if I have to, I'll see if the HA archives has some sales.

Second....the price matrix in the book has MS-60's (pure bullion coin) and MS-63 (right on the cusp) going for about $450-$500 for most of that 1998-2000 time period.  In other words, a decent premium to gold...confirmed by those charts I've posted which showed that premiums tend to not collapse when gold bottoms.  If they did, you'd see Saints selling for $350 or so with a 20% premium which we did NOT see. Would you all agree that those were about the cheapest Saint prices since 1980 ?

No-Bids:  I continue to see lots of coins going for no-bid.   

Sellers just asking too high a price, esp. for "+" or CAC coins where there was a decent shot in the past to catch an upgrade or a CAC sticker....but now many people feel unless it's CLEARLY undergraded, it's probably already been sent in to PCGS (or NGC) and/or CAC.

Here's what's NOT getting bids:

• A couple of 1928 MS-66+ Saints, one NGC and one PCGS, going no-bid at $4,500 and $4,700 (that's before the bp).
• A 1924 MS-66+ Saint which stood alone at $3,900.
• A 1908 NM MS-67+ Saint got no interest at $10,000.  I believe an MS-68 is $20,000 or more but it was still too high.
• A 1914-D MS-65 Saint no interest at $3,200.

Here's where (multiple) bids did show up:

• An MS-61 MCMVII HR went for $14,700 including bp.
• A 1908 NM MS-67 got 1 bid for $7,700 (w/bp).  I think this MIGHT be a bit high for the grade, will check.  
• An MCMVII HR AU-53 went for $10,800 (w/bp).
• A 1926 MS-67 went for $41,800 (w/bp).
• A 1924 MS-67 went for $12,400 (w/bp).

Anybody bought or sold any Saints lately ?  Thoughts ?

On 11/5/2023 at 7:50 AM, ldhair said:

It would be a big time saver for me. 

How long DOES it take to crack these things out and what do you use exactly ?  Use like "Jaws Of Life" or whatever to take off the whole top of the slab or what ?

On 11/5/2023 at 9:02 PM, J P M said:

I think the OP is looking to resell these coins and using this forum for justification to ask for the higher prices. There is saying us old guys use a lot.

( You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear )

Well, nobody here is going to buy them in all likelihood if they are Details coins, so seems like alot of work for him to do if that's his goal.

dPrince, what's your endgame ?  You selling these ?  Gonna submit them for grading ?  What ?

On 11/1/2023 at 2:11 PM, VKurtB said:

I just fundamentally believe that is 100% BS.

The predictions may or may not come true....I find the price projections REASONABLE for the time frames indicated.

That said....gold could also be $1,800 in 5-10 years, I freely admit. 

But I don't think so.

First, let me say I am happy to continue the discussion of stocks/bonds/investing in another thread if this gets too far off the "$3,000 Gold" topic though it is still somewhat tangentially tied to that since we are discussing the valuation of a competing asset class. 

Second, earnings are what you have to use.  There are discrepancies at times with GAAP or Operating EPS, but by and large they have gone up 7% a year since 1960 and provided real growth that outstrips inflation and any other asset class.  Free cash flow also backs this up.  Earnings are real and when they go up, stocks go up.

Third, while I respect Jon Hussman as very knowledgeable and he brings interesting thought-provoking ideas to the table, he has a TERRIBLE track record as a perma-bear.  His main fund has returned about 3% over the last 10 years which is a lousy performance...without checking, it's probably had a more bullish bias than Hussman himself talks about because it does have to compete for $$$.

Fourth, I agree that foreign markets offer some interesting valuation metrics but some of their companies just don't get it.  As an example, BP and SHEL seem to think they work for the European Green Party and both cut their dividends in 2000 right at the worst possible moment.  XOM and CVX continue to make them both look like fools.  ROEs and ROICs for U.S. companies are among the best in the world.  Europe is cheap -- but then again, so is a fixer-upper home.   Labor markets, regulations, and energy policies are looking like a major headwind in Europe.   A tariff war may also be coming as they try to "equalize" costs by hitting American and Chinese firms.

Fifth, U.S. growth is not 100% dependent on the FRB's balance sheet.  Yes, it helped with stock returns but companies here have real earnings growth.  AI is a real thing and while I think NVDA is ahead of itself, the U.S. is a leader there, too. 

Quick...name 1 great European tech company ?  Now....name 5 great U.S. tech companies ?  I bet most people reading this can name the 5 over the 1 !!!  

Sixth, earnings are real.  Over time they are not manipulable (is that a word ? ) .  Dividends ARE real cash and the S&P 500 and many companies do pay out hard, real cash.  NVDA is actually CHEAPER today than it was 6 months ago.  The earnings are real....the P/E has DEFLATED not INFLATED because of easy money (whcih has been tight, anyway).  

Earnings determine the valuation level, free cash flow, CAPX levels, and dividend payouts.  They DO matter and the U.S. has among the best accounting in the world.

I've read Hussman and other perma-bears and they bring up some interesting stuff.  But if you listened to them...you'd scare yourself out of the market for 3, 5, 10, 20 years or more.  You can't do that.  You'll lose out.  You can't be like Charles Allmon in the 1980's and miss the 1987 Crash and stay in cash for 15 years.  It doesn't work. Better to be in the market and the Crash and stay fully-invested.

You know, the S&P 500 sold at 6x EPS in December 1974.  Those days are gone.  But there was a small-cap stock that sold for TWICE the market multiple, 12x EPS, at that time.  At that time, selling for 2x the market multiple was considered super-rich (unlike the Go-Go late 1960's).  Not many people wanted to pay 2x the S&P 500 P/E when they didn't even want to buy stocks at 6x EPS.  In fact.....they should have been willing to pay 30x EPS...or 50x EPS...or even 100x EPS.  They'd have done OK even if they paid 600x the company's earnings and done no worse than the S&P 500 for decades to come.

The company's name ?  Wal-Mart.   

On 11/5/2023 at 9:13 PM, World Colonial said:

Great calls out of how many? Something tells me their batting average isn't that good.  No one's has been, except those who say "buy and hold" forever due to the asset mania.

I don't know the exact numbers but I'd say maybe a 60% success rate, maybe 70%.  Their timing is good....directions are easy for the most part since most stocks do go up over time.  Their shorts stand out (aside from AMZN, which they totally blew). 

On 11/5/2023 at 8:29 PM, VKurtB said:

Henri needs to pay more attention to things beyond his narrow niche. Same with Goldfinger69. There are worlds beyond their gazes.

Don't ASSUME that I am confined to a narrow niche.   I can multitask multiple interests that are not tied to one another by any stretch. 

Even my 2nd word typed above has some significance though I doubt anybody here will get it unless they watched the ABC lineup in the early-1970's. 

On 11/5/2023 at 7:27 PM, VKurtB said:

What if, as is the truth, I have ZERO confidence in PCGS' ability to grade European coins?

NGC seems to be the preferred grader for foreign/world coins.

On 11/1/2023 at 6:08 PM, World Colonial said:

The composition of someone's portfolio should be based upon their personal financial circumstances, risk tolerance, and knowledge.  It should not be based upon what anyone else thinks, as no one else is going to pay their bills when life doesn't "work out". 

Of course, but general investment guidelines provide a good starting point -- and sometimes a good ENDING point -- for a good portfolio.  In many cases, the standard "60-40" portfolio might be best for most people at most points in time.

In most cases, this isn't rocket science.  But I do see too many people make decisions involving life savings, 5- or 6- or even 7-figure sums of money and spend LESS time researching what they are doing than the time they spend to buy new furniture, a Hi-Def TV, or new kitchen counter tops.   

"The goal of every individual should be to maintain or improve their personal financial circumstances, not maximize their return or beat some arbitrary benchmark.  Using myself as an example, I'm hardly rich but I don't need to follow conventional thinking to accomplish what I want to achieve."

Sure, no objections.  And thanks to the rise in interest rates, it's alot easier.  An 8% portfolio return can now be achieved with moderate risk.

"That along with knowing this is the most overpriced market in history is why I don't follow conventional advice."

Definitely not true, even with the rise in interest rates.  Much more overvalued only 2 years ago let alone in 2000.  On a straight P/E basis, we're elevated but not at bubble levels.  See charts, below.

On 11/1/2023 at 5:39 PM, World Colonial said:

Great. Is there actual evidence that they are correct more often than not? I'd say "no" until proven otherwise.

Yeah, I've been reading them since the mid-1980's and they've made some great Cover Calls.  Probably the best over that time was the March 2000 cover story on how the Dot.com's were bleeding too much cash.  NASDAQ went down 75% next 2 years, lots of the bubble stocks lost 90-100%. 

On 10/31/2023 at 11:52 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

1920's Gold Exports:  It's fascinating to own some coins from this era....to read about them....and have it linked to something we all learned about in junior high school, namely the Dawes Plan to help get Germany (and Europe) back on their feet.

To think that something I read about all the time in the inter-war period was a key reason so many of the Saint-Gaudens coins survived the 1930's melting is kind of cool and fascinating. 

Conversely...once the Stock Market crashed....economies fell....and the gold standard was targeted and then exited.....this explains why the 1929 Saint is pretty much the last of The Fab Five (1929, 1930-S, 1931, 1931-D, and 1932) to be exported in any quantity such that some mini-hoards could be found in Europe.  All the others are just stray foreign finds or domestic coins only.

As RWB wrote in his book:  "Out of 4,666,000 double eagles, worth $93,320,000, manufactured from 1930 through 1933, not one coin was released to a Federal Reserve Bank for ordinary circulation or international trade."

On 11/5/2023 at 1:48 PM, World Colonial said:

If I am correct that the typical US hobbyist collector's budget is somewhere in the vicinity of $500/YR, I can see that most of them won't pay to attend local shows.  It's presumably different for the example in this post or roughly equivalent higher end shows in population centers with a high concentration of affluent collectors.

Sure, most of us here spend more than that and if we don't we still maintain heightened interest in the sector which makes us more likely to fork it over. 

On 11/3/2023 at 12:20 PM, Just Bob said:

If that is the definition of numismatist, I fear we have set the bar way too low.

I have a fairly extensive, well-rounded numismatic book collection, which I read and consult frequently. I also do a good bit of reading online, as well as watching videos of lectures and  presentations. I'm on the couch every night with my laptop and pen & notepad, making notes and recording auction results of the tokens that I collect, and other coins that I am interested in. However, in no way do I consider myself a true numismatist. I am just a guy who likes coins and tokens. 

If you spend that much time and effort into doing research and following stuff, I think that makes you a numismatist.