GoldFinger1969

On 11/1/2023 at 1:48 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

Yes this would be a very valuable coin in MS 68 RB and a solo. 

Does a coin like this come up often ?  If so, then don't worry.

What is FMV and recent auction sales for this coin ?  If $200, then I hate going 30% above that.  If it doesn't come up that often in this grade, then 30% and $100 or so are relatively tolerable premiums to pay, percentage-wise and in absolute dollars.

On 10/31/2023 at 1:35 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Depends on the show.  I would pay $10 to enter a large show (which ironically are mostly free).  Small shows are fun, but 99% of the time I walk out empty handed.  If there is a "cover" to see 15-20 tables, I am out (unless I know in advance a particular dealer will be there with a coin a like).  

Also, the small shows are just renting space at a Knights of Columbus or other hall for the most part....low-rent places, no speakers or talks or frills, just tables.  Since the dealers and the "promoter" have already covered their minimal costs with 1 or 2 small sales, they really don't need any entry charge.

Now...a nice hotel for a somewhat larger show with multiple rooms (and maybe a talk or panel discussion) I can live with a small fee.  And something bigger like FUN having all that space at the Orange County Convention Center with all the bells and whistles, not a deal-breaker.  

Again....I'm not sure what the per-table fee is at a big show like FUN (I think about $500/day, is that right ?) but that revenue stream will dwarf a small entry charge to 1,000 or 1,500 attendees or how many attend (no idea for a big show like FUN -- anybody ?).  But I'd really love for any entry fee to go to MORE Big Picture talks or panel discussions and not something specific to expert coin collectors.

Silver and Gold price discussions and Silver vs. Gold and the types of coins to get exposure to both are something that should be a staple at these shows.  Also, primers on MSDs and DEs.  I think that would stimulate the public and get more of them to stick with the hobby.

On 10/31/2023 at 11:07 PM, VKurtB said:

My account in equities is about 20%, maybe a percent or two below. My guy doesn’t see ANYTHING positive happening in the economy until Biden is gone. And he’s in Southern California. 

That's fine. 

MPT basically says that having an equity exposure below 20% doesn't reduce portfolio risk at that point because as your bond or fixed income portfolio goes over 80% you increase the overall portfolio risk there.  Of course, if someone is market-timing and dropping their stock exposure under 20% just for a short period of time, that's a separate manner. 

Of course, lots of people do that saying it's short-term and then they never get it back to that level. 

On 10/31/2023 at 10:09 PM, VKurtB said:

My investment advisor has a huge number rolling over for me, half in 9 month maturity sovereign debt, and half in 12 month maturity sovereign debt. If rates fall, I get cap gains. Zero gold, zero equities. My small account is in growth equities, the headline making companies.  

Gold is a personal choice, not really an asset to be included in a financial plan.  But equities should be -- at least 20% -- as an all fixed-income/bond portfolio is riskier than a portfolio with a small allocation to equities.

CME the analyst was talking about contracts traded, I guess Open Interest.  This would signify retail and institutional buying.

Normally, public cover stories are reverse indicators (i.e., Time or Newsweek in their heyday), but BARRON'S is different.  If they had a cover story that gold was going higher, they'd have lots of sound reasons within the story for that to be the case.

Analyst on CNBC said look for these things as a sign gold is going higher (much higher):

1. Stays above $2,000 an ounce, preferably a new ATH closer to $2,100  

2. A cover story in BARRON'S signifying increased retail interest in gold.  

3. 250,000 contracts traded on the gold contract at the CME.  

On 10/31/2023 at 1:55 PM, VKurtB said:

Ahh, but it WAS necessary at Nashville. Given the costs, there was NO WAY ON EARTH the IMEX show would not bleed red ink without an admission charge. It's GOING TO BE THE NEW NORMAL. ANA has done it for well over a decade. And NYINC has been $20 a pop forever.

I wonder if anybody has considered waiving the fee if you spent a certain amount of $$$ at the show. 

On 10/31/2023 at 1:00 PM, VKurtB said:

I didn't stay for the Friday night talk, but I got to speak with him privately for almost 10 minutes. I was lavishly formally trained to be a Keynesian economist, but the Forbes brand of monetarism is just removed from Keynesianism by different terminology.  Which causes inflation? Too much "money" chasing too few "goods", or too much "aggregate income" chasing too little "productivity"? That's the difference. Keynesians insist "people don't spend MONEY, they spend INCOME". "MONEY" is invested, not spent.

Anything interesting to say about the markets or economy, forget inflation.....

I believe they have no more control or ties to the Forbes magazine or media empire.

On 10/31/2023 at 12:37 PM, VKurtB said:

The $10 fee DID go to getting Steve Forbes to appear, and some awesome door prizes.

Did Forbes have anything interesting to say ?

On 10/31/2023 at 11:59 AM, VKurtB said:

15-20 seconds is an eternity for most more modern U.S. coins.

For John Albanese or David Hall or the late David Akers or some of our veterans here, sure. 

What about some kid in his 20's who's been a coin collector for maybe 15 years and was just hired by PCGS or NGC or CACG because they have thousands of coins to grade and needed a body to hire ASAP ? 

I went to a couple of local "clunkers" that probably cost me $10-$15 in gas and tolls (when gas was alot cheaper !! ) and 2-3 hours of my time.  That was what sucked more than if I ended up paying $10 to get in, if I had to do that.  If there was such a fee I'd probably either ask the ticket seller how many tables had coins or ask to go in for 30 seconds to see if it was worth it.  Quite frankly, a few weren't.

Going to FUN or a big national or regional...I spend hundreds of dollars just to get there, plus hundreds more to stay in a hotel so my total cost is probably going to be $500 - $1,000 if I stay a few days.  So no, a 1-time pass fee of $50 or a daily fee of $10 or $20 isn't going to be a deal-breaker for me. 

But like I said -- and I realize that the FUN people and others volunteer their time and do a great job -- I'd hope that any new fee like this would be dedicated to having some more speakers and panel discussions on popular topics and coins that appeal to the regular coin collectors as well as the curious public.  And no, I don't object to a few perks for the folks who put on the show either, like making sure they can stay in a local hotel to cut down on commuting to the show, dinners, etc.  They've earned it, AFAIC. 

On 10/31/2023 at 7:27 AM, ldhair said:

I don't know much about the census. Is it in need of being overhauled? I would think it gets updated each time a coin gets graded. I don't think it's possible to know how many NGC coins have been removed from the holders. Is it even possible to reaffirm the data?

Roger and other researchers will apply a "fudge factor" to eliminate double-counting.  It varies by coin type...by year...by how scarce a particular series is....but I recall him posting way back in the RWB Saints-Gaudens Book Thread that a 40% haircut was not out of whack to eliminate double-counting.  That was for a coin with hundreds or thousands in the count.

For a super-rare coin with a few dozen or less, it might be a smaller haircut I would guess.

1920's Gold Exports:  It's fascinating to own some coins from this era....to read about them....and have it linked to something we all learned about in junior high school, namely the Dawes Plan to help get Germany (and Europe) back on their feet.

To think that something I read about all the time in the inter-war period was a key reason so many of the Saint-Gaudens coins survived the 1930's melting is kind of cool and fascinating. 

On 10/31/2023 at 11:04 AM, VKurtB said:

I don't believe that even the most egregious Franklin story contains intent. Franklins were like Ikes before Ikes were. The series got close to ZERO respect from graders. Not the grading FIRMS per se; I'm taking about the people, the graders. They were graded in about 3 seconds each and were graded in a narrow band of grades. Then one day somebody got serious about some Franklins that were just "better" and deserved a higher grade. I don't EVER expect Roger Burdette to EVER get ANYTHING right regarding grading, and I'll seldom be disappointed. Roger writes, nah, compiles. That doesn't mean he can also THINK. He can't.

Roger has nothing to do with the Franklin Gradeflation Thread, FYI.

Have you read it ?  Very interesteing and curious considering you had some skilled collectors and graders who could NOT get the upgrade and yet after they parted with some coins, they "miraculously" went up 1-2 grades...with FBL...and/or CAC. 

I've been dubious about "speed grading" for years and yet have been told by folks with much better grading skills than me that when you do this for a living and see hundreds of coins a day for years....all you need is 15-20 seconds, tops....and often times, less.  

On 10/29/2023 at 4:54 PM, World Colonial said:

I don't even know the price of most MS-65 Saints now,

Straight MS-65, no CAC....figure $2,400-$2,500 or a 20% premium.  I can update tonight after the GC auctions close.

On 10/29/2023 at 5:57 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I agree unequivocally and I have consulted a number of obscure sources.  A distinction must be made between "circulation" strikes and what I refer to as "specialty" strikes, which includes various patterns, essai piedforts and those 9,443 matte proofs all dated 1900.  Amongst circulation strikes, all fall with the range $1K to $2K. Amongst the specialty coins, none I am aware of exceeded Liberty Coin's [non-auction] sale price of $24,400 for a 1900 PF-67 which languished on eBay for over a year before being either sold or withdrawn from sale a few years back.

Saw a SP-65 1899 10 Franc coin that sold in August 2022 for $5,520.  Another a few years earlier with same grade for virtually the same figure.

A 1908 MS-66 for $764 back in 2015 when gold was a bunch cheaper.  GAD 1065-a.... whatever that means.

On 10/23/2023 at 8:02 PM, Henri Charriere said:

"You don't have to be Jewish to love Levy's real Jewish rye bread,"

Haven't been this relieved to know that since I found out the real price of the $100,000 bar wasn't $100,000 !! 

Besides, where the hell am I supposed to get one of those Woodrow Wilson $100,000 bills to insert into the vending machine anyway ?  

Re-reading some of the entries, that 1983 El Salvador Hoard awarded to Stack's and MTB has some kind of West Coast connection in all likelihood.  A large number of the coins are from the San Fran mint.   

David Akers comments:  "... they had large quantities of scarce, beautiful, original high quality Liberty Heads (1901-S, 1902-S, and 1905-S among others), and also a great many incredible quality Saints including such dates as 1909-S, 1910-S, 1911-S, 1914-S, 1915-S, and 1916-S...." 

There were other coins in the hoard, but that's alot of SanFran coins. 

On 10/29/2023 at 12:18 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I have never paid 2K for any Gold Rooster, but at least one collector has according to HA records: $2,280 for a 1909 PCGS-certified as MS67 four years ago. 

What is the highest price ever paid for ANY Rooster ?  How big a dropoff for the next few highest in the series after the ATH price ?

On 10/29/2023 at 8:15 AM, J P M said:

Many buy a classical minted coin thinking they can always sell it for bullion price. But then it is always worth a bit more than melt you say. Also you may fall in love with it and never sell it. If you buy a bullion coin that is it's intent. You may also fall in love with it but maybe not as much that you can't part with it .

The problem is the starting premium to bullion for some investment-grade coins, JPM.  As an extreme example, MS-65 Saints were selling for $3,500 in 1989-90 when gold was under $400 ounce. 

As my chart shows above, when gold fell in the late-1990's as the Tech Bubble in stocks continued and gold fell under $300/oz....the premium for Saints was "sticky" and prices fell less and/or rose -- the premiums ROSE.  Maybe they were signalling that gold was about to rise and reverse higher....maybe they were saying that dealers wouldn't sell Saints at a loss and would wait it out....whatever....but the premiums were simply too high and ate into future returns relative to buying spot gold which went up 6-fold in the next 8 years whereas Saints and other gold coins for the most part didn't go up more than double or triple.

On 10/28/2023 at 1:41 PM, World Colonial said:

If the price of gold takes off, I'd rather buy AGE or similar type than any bullion type US classic gold which includes the common Saint dates in MS-65.

Ironically, you are correct. 

I went back and found that if you got the direction of the (upward) gold price correct the best move was to buy bullion coins, NOT quasi-numismatics which in THEORY have more leverage to a multi-year move in gold but in fact are OVERPRICED at the beginning of the move (huge premium to gold price) and then get hit from a LOWER PREMIUM once gold makes its move.  You have to LIKE THE COINS to make a case for buying quasi-numsimatics or pure numsimatic Saints or other gold coins, it appears.

You can see that the premium over gold content was HUGE when the absolute price of gold was lower and beginning to make its move.  Of course, if the move in gold peters out, then you end up buying very overpriced gold coins, like paying $3,500 for an MS-65 Saint in the 1990's with a premium of close to 1,000%. 

On 10/28/2023 at 9:08 AM, World Colonial said:

What you are describing are bullion substitute widgets, though US collectors and "investors" have convinced themselves it differs from any number of actually somewhat less common "world" gold. As "investment", I'd rather own AGE or similar substitutes.

The charts -- and my post -- were refencing Saints or similar coins with maybe 20-30% numismatic value:  not pure gold, but not a multiple of gold, either.  I think the charts for MS-65 and MS-62 capture it well (62 is just above or at the level of a bullion coin).

On 10/28/2023 at 9:08 AM, World Colonial said:

What is the current premium and how does it compare to somewhat recent history?  (Last 20 years or near it.)  I don't track it, since I'm not looking to buy it.

I was referring to premiums on investment grade coins, not bullion coins, like MS Saints.  Here's a few charts that show you the premiums: