GoldFinger1969

On 10/22/2023 at 12:53 PM, RWB said:

PS: Treasury and Fed Reserve used counting machines, which might have injured many of the coins. (The US. Mints used counting boards well into the 1920s.)

Huh ?   I don't recall reading about that in your book or anywhere else.  I assumed it was done manually.

So they'd take 250 coins out of the bag....count them using a machine....and then re-bag them ?  I would guess the machines or even a counting "board" could add dings or marks to a soft gold coin.

I guess they couldn't weight them, not accurate enough or you'd need to weigh multiple bags and then account for the weight of the bags themselves.

On 9/28/2023 at 6:29 PM, RWB said:

Is the site called the "Sheraton Tarrytown," or is it the "Sheraton" in Tarrytown ? If the latter, you need a comma after "Sheraton."

Why are the hours so short....at least run it until 5 PM.... Yeah, the style is old fashioned, but that might draw attention.

Yes, the show should go to at least 3 PM. 

I would also have a nice coin's obverse/reverse showing instead of the sides of a bunch of stacked coins.   A nice Saint Gaudens Double Eagle or a Morgan Dollar obverse would be nice.

I used to attend the Westchester Show which was quarterly...right before Covid-19, a new show started up which was in a nice hotel (Marriott or Sheraton, I think) in Mount Kisco.  I thought it had promise....but then Covid hit, I have been inactive since.

On 10/22/2023 at 12:52 AM, EagleRJO said:

Seems to me like there were more from the stay-at-home lock down period were people were so bored they were picking up new hobbies and going through pocket change.  Deffinely also significant spikes in prices at that time from people picking up the hobby.

I don't recall it....we picked up oldtimers who had left or been inactive, but I don't recall all these "What is it worth ?" or "Is this a valuable penny" threads.  I could be wrong but it didn't stand out.

Whatever....

On 10/21/2023 at 8:39 PM, zadok said:

...im a bit on the sloooow side, does that mean i should continue to hold onto my S & H green stamps or cash them in?....

I think my grandparents got those from their old A&P supermarket !! 

On 10/21/2023 at 8:52 PM, RWB said:

I've been told of several large accumulations of dollar bags from the 1960s. The dealers and speculators cherrypicked what they got from Treasury, then refilled and returned the bags. Treasury had to open and count every returned bag, re-label it with the contents, fill, crimp/tie and seal. The Federal Reserve preferred using their own labeled bags and separate tag accounting system, so some US Mint bags were discarded. Several million dollars were removed from rotting bags in the mid-late 1890s at Philadelphia and put into wooden boxes. These were evidently the first to go in 1918.

DE and other gold coin bags were usually burned and gold dust recovered from the ashes. The Swiss were very careful to give each bag of gold a good, hearty shake before opening and consolidating the coins into $25,000 European bank standard bags. Swiss banks sold the coins as if they were always 100% full weight - which they usually were not, at least in bulk. Swiss and Swedish bankers also realized long ago that British sovereigns were not really uniform in weight, so they reweighed everything they got. The legal but light coins were passed on to others; heavy and overweight lots were melted and sold as bullion bars, thereby capturing extra profit on the excess gold from overweight coins.

(I recall there's a little about this in the SG-DE book -- I think....)

Excellent information....I will re-hit the book to see more about bags...but so far, a word search only shows that it was customary for gold sent to Brazil and Argenina to remain in the bags.

On 10/21/2023 at 8:03 PM, zadok said:

...hoards r mostly owned by those that do not trust banks or the federal govt...with good reason, self included...hoards r there when all else has failed e.g. when the entire electrical grid fails n nothing digital is accessible, when gas pumps/electric chargers dont work, when atms dont illuminate, when cash registers dont cha-ching..does anyone seriously believe that this country can ever provide a grid capable of keeping 100million plus ev's charged?...those that have generators n gasoline reserves n possibly solar panels n guns/ammo will stay warm n fed...while the general lemming populace actually swallows up the garbage about ev's that require more carbon to make than they can save in their expected lifetimes continue on their merry way to oblivion those that think for themselves, the "hoarders", r preparing for the consequences...

Excellent points. 

Also consider the times of when these hoards were stashed....today, you're more likely to see hoards in SDBs or a home safe or hidden in part of a house rather than buried or put in a crawl space.

I could be wrong...but it seems like I've seen more of these threads started by Newbies who swear they have some Mint error or rare attribute coin....in the last 6 months....then in the previous 6 years.

Definitely more than in 2020-21 during the height of Covid-19 Stay-At-Home.

On 10/20/2023 at 8:31 PM, RWB said:

Dollar bags got most of the abuse simply because they sat in one spot for many years subject to rot. Other coin bags went from Mint to Sub-treasury to bank where coins were removed and the bag reused.

It's somewhat surprising there aren't more Morgan and Double Eagle bags around, especially Morgan bags since some people took delivery of entire bags of MSDs during the 1960's.  Even in bad/worn condition.

I guess if the hoard was "hoarded" it was an insurance policy for the owners.  If they needed it, it wouldn't be hidden in a crawl space (Baltimore) or in a bunch of cans on a hill (Saddle Ridge).  Would have been in a more accessible place, I would guess, if they needed to dip into it from time-to-time.

That Baltimore Hoard was fascinating. 

List of prominent hoards from the 1800's to the present, some gold some silver:

https://www.govmint.com/coin-authority/post/lost-treasures-famous-american-coin-and-buried-treasure-hoards

French Gold Habits:  May have posted this elsewhere but after stopping the Rooster production with WW I in 1914, they were never restarted again until the re-strikes decades later.

“As people across Europe became distrustful of paper money, they began hoarding. They hoarded out of fear of devaluation and fear of war.”2 France, the second largest central bank holder of gold after the United States, refused to strike or release gold coin for circulation after the war. According to a 1930 report in the Wall Street Journal: 

        [The] Finance Minister stated that an issue of gold coin is not contemplated as the coins would be hoarded.

By the end of 1931 European speculators and gold hoarders were looking for additional avenues to profit from international currency turmoil. With French citizens and others demanding to buy gold in small quantities for personal hoards, and no domestic gold coin available, the obvious solution was to import U.S. coins.  The first publicity about private exports for hoarding was a small article in the Wall Street Journal on February 1, 1932:

"Foreigners have been withdrawing American gold coins at the rate of approximately $5,000,000 weekly in the last few weeks, the largest      shipments being made to France and Holland. Those transactions are handled by banks who charge a premium on the business. This gold    movement is not entirely reflected in the statements of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.  The foreign recipients, mostly banks, are selling the coins, also at a premium, for hoarding purposes, since gold coin in European countries is not easily available."

The U.S. coins were not only of recognized purity standards, but were freely available from banks sometimes without a fee.

The American banks are the only ones in the world outside of South Africa which freely furnish gold coin. Even in France, where the gold standard is strongly entrenched, the banks decline to issue gold in small amounts. The French banks will, however, issue gold bars on demand, but these bars, weighing 25 pounds and costing several thousand dollars, are too costly and too unwieldy to support the newly created business of profiteering in gold currency.

As a result…the foreign vendors of coins have turned to the United States as their sole source of supply.

Primer for Newbies on Roosters:

https://learn.apmex.com/learning-guide/the-20-franc-gold-rooster/

Lots of nice coins....

We hit $2,000 intraday once again.

I continue to think we are in a basing mode about $2,000 give or take 5% or so on the upside and downside (maybe a bit more for the latter).  If rates/inflation go higher, that could make gold go much higher.

Keep an eye on this AI...saw a report from Capital Economics which said AI winners like the U.S. could see 1.5% added to GDP growth but loser countries could lag for decades.

I remember having lunch with Bill Dudley, Goldman's chief economist and later president of the NY Fed, years ago....he said some trends were simply uninvestable, like a slow gradual rise in rates like we saw from 1945-1966.  Unless you use leverage, you can get the direction right and still find it hard to profit.

On 10/20/2023 at 1:51 PM, RWB said:

Like most other supplies, bag fabric was purchased on bid by contractors and quality and fabric weight varied from time to time. They also had bags made outside the mint by individual piece workers and small businesses. Dampness was the big enemy of cotton coin bags.

If bags moved from bank-to-bank -- let alone across the Atlantic -- that also had to increase wear & tear compared to sitting in a vault.

On 10/20/2023 at 2:22 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Those premiums seem very high to me for moderns, especially world modern, more like half those numbers (or less) in my experience for common pieces. Absolutely correct in that premiums drop significantly as you go up. 

I haven't bought them in a long time (10 years) so it's possible the premiums have fallen, FM.  You may be correct.  Also, I got mine from a LCS, albeit one who is very fair and worked on reasonable spreads from my perspective (at least on 1 ounce stuff). 

On 10/20/2023 at 4:07 PM, lucy g said:

These are facts, not a rant.  I'm hoping new folks to submitting coins will read this first before wasting their time and money like I did.  I submitted 30 coins to NGC for mint error grading.  Finding a RPM, or a DDO or a DDR is not what it used to be.  You can scope the image and look at it 100 times, but if it is not clear to the naked eye without magnification don't bother sending it in.  None of my coins were marked with mint errors.  Even though you can SEE the error in their imaging, clear as day such as the doubled E in EC on the bessie coleman quarter as you see attached.  They won't explain why.  And when I called to dispute it, all the customer service representative could say to me was "the grader has it in their notes this is not a mint error".  And thats IT.  It can be plain as the nose on your face but they will not change it.   So you can waste upwards of $50+ for imaging and grading, for a .25 cent coin.  Senders be aware please.

Can I ask you, Lucy....

• How long have you been collecting ?
• What made you submit the coins in the first place ?  Was it your 1st submission ?
• Who told you that sending the coins in would likely verify your error coins as such and/or be a profitable investment ?

Welcome to the Forums.

On 10/19/2023 at 1:46 PM, EagleRJO said:

I know you like Saints, but at 4x the gold and about 3x to 4x the price of the half-eagles being discussed that is way more than a "bit extra" in term of the gold. Talk about up-selling. 

I have no financial interest, though I am "talking my book" as they say in the trade.   A $10 Eagle would also be nice and have some historical significance, though not as much.  But it would cut the cost in half or more.  

If you are going to look at and show the coin...then size matters a bit (at least from my perspective).

On 10/19/2023 at 1:46 PM, EagleRJO said:

The price of the 1862 G$1 can vary, and are much smaller with only 1/20 ounce of gold.  The 1/4 ounce $5 Liberty Head half-eagles are pretty nice, and likely not much above your target cost lightly circulated.

Premiums on moderns can be very high for sub-ounce coins:  1/20th expect 40-50% if not more.....1/10th at least 40%.....1/4 figure about 25%.  At half and full ounce it falls to single-digits.

On 10/20/2023 at 11:03 AM, zadok said:

...everything lasted longer...bottom line; things were made to last, now things r made with a designed shelf life...purpose?...bottom line enhancement....

I am sure it depended on how often the bags were moved....RWB wrote a nice piece on a bag that contained 1928 Saint DEs.....the bags holding the Wells Fargo 1908 NM's apparently wore out in the 1950's or 1960's (after about 50 years) and had to be replaced.

On 10/20/2023 at 10:10 AM, World Colonial said:

Temporary value, depending upon the maturity/duration and credit quality.  There has been a "blood bath" in USG bonds, with TLT ETF losing over 50% (not including interest payments) since the peak in 2020.  That's as bad as the S&P during the GFC.

That's the 30-year Treasury with a duration of over 25 years.  So the losses aren't surprising.  Unlike the S&P 500, you are guaranteed to get your money back and get the return on the original coupon.  Small blessing ! 

On 10/20/2023 at 10:10 AM, World Colonial said:

The bond mania almost certainly peaked in 2020 after a 39=year bull market.  This means rates are destined to "blow out" past the 1981 high years from now, as the economic "fundamentals" are actually mediocre to awful. So, yes, closer to an interim peak in yields and low in prices, for higher quality debt, not necessarily "junk" which is actually most of what's out there given the extended history of sub-basement credit standards masquerading as "prudent".

Actually, most of the "junk" bonds are higher-quality junk as opposed to stuff we saw in the past.  Credit quality is actually pretty good.

It is hard to talk about blowing past a 15% 10 or 30-year bond yield.  I know Rick Santelli on CNBC was predicting double-digit rates by 2030 or something like that, but it took DECADES after WW II for rates to move up that high.  It was a different era...where you learned about bond yields the next day in the financial section....today everybody knows within seconds.

The Bond Vigilantes -- remember them ? -- may rise yields enough to slow GDP growth such that inflation and even real rates do not jack up nominal yields.

On 10/20/2023 at 3:48 AM, Zebo said:

Short term money moving longer to take advantage. Possibly

Yes, for the first time in 15 years or more you get a nice yield in a money market fund.  The problem is.....when the Fed starts to cut or if there is any financial accident (harder to predict), the Fed will ease.

The "good" news is that we probably aren't going back to ZIRP.  Even cuts and then a freeze to a 3-3.5% Fed Funds will probably have money market funds yield in the 3's if not low-4's.

Gold took a steep, quick plunge to the low-$1,800's and then rebounded on the Middle East problems back to just under $2,000 an ounce.

5% 10-Year Treasury Bond:  Forget about default, the surging supply has resulted in the long yields ripping higher.  Lots of good values in bond funds and fixed-income vehicles, if anybody is interested post below or start a new thread in the appropriate section where we can discuss financial investments.

On 10/19/2023 at 7:16 PM, ldhair said:

Same thing as canvas tarps. The weight gives you an idea of how strong it is. It's interesting that they weigh it by the yard but it's bought and sold by the square ft. 

Sounds like these "duck bags" may have been stronger and held up longer than those $5,000 bags used decades later ?