GoldFinger1969

On 11/5/2023 at 2:06 AM, Mike Meenderink said:

If they are going to make more than 100k of these than I'll pass. If they are confirmed limited mintages of less than 10k each type I may look at them.

If they mint so few, chances are you won't get one.

The mintage for the 2009 UHR Saint recreation was sufficient that everybody could get one without paying idiotic premiums.

Rawhide, Season 4, Episode 2 "Incident Of The Sendoff"....at the 30:30 mark, you see Gil Favor (Eric Fleming) talking to Hadley (Darren McGavin) saying that he would pay the $150 owed to Hadley with 8 Double Eagles.  This was the TV series that launched Clint Eastwood.

I never realized until the last year how many TV stars of the 1970's and 1980's I grew up with were on these Westerns of the late-1950's and early-1960's.  

On 11/3/2023 at 9:42 AM, zadok said:

...shows have to be in tax friendly environs....

Someone tell NYIMC show !! 

So the true DDO condition has to be clear and material, like Sandon's coin's "LIBERTY" which is clear even to a mediocre grader like me ?

These other conditions -- while unique -- clearly don't have the magnitude of the "doubling" so they're not worth anything -- is that it ?

On 11/3/2023 at 9:15 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Asa Hutchinson won't be on the ballot but that won't stop me from writing him in.

Is he the defensive end for the Lions ? 

On 11/4/2023 at 10:07 AM, World Colonial said:

Have you ever submitted a coin yourself? If you have, you'd know the improved marketability doesn't offset the cost on coins in this price range more than a low fraction of the time.

Never have, WC. 

But for non-dealer collectors who submit a few times a year (figure 20-30 coins), my understanding is total per-coin costs for grading are about $35 ?

On 11/4/2023 at 1:41 AM, powermad5000 said:

There is a difference on there when it comes to slabbed VS raw @GoldFinger1969. Also differences in high end coins VS low end coins. And the one variable that cannot be controlled is how many people are looking for a specific coin at the specific time of auction and also how many bidders are willing to pay FMV or are just looking for a "bargain". I have seen some auctions with the perfect storm of rabid bidders who would probably fist fight over a certain coin, and I have also seen some auctions end at a price that makes you smack your forehead and say to yourself "That coin only sold for that much???!!!!"  ometimes I will watch an auction with no intent to buy just to see where it ends at. If you try that sometime on eBay you will see what I mean.

The problem with raw auctions is that unless BOTH the (ultimate) buyer and seller are knowledgeable about grading, you have a very wide moat of uncertainty as to the coin's condition.  This is increased by the fact that the buyer/bidders do not have the actual coin in hand but are going by photographs which may or may not be distorting (deliberately or accidentally) the appearance/condition of the coin.

On 11/4/2023 at 12:50 AM, powermad5000 said:

It doesn't always happen that way on eBay. I remember my first auction for a slabbed Morgan 1881 S NGC graded AU58. I sold that because I upgraded big time. I started the auction at $0.01. Well, it ended at $26.50. Pre pandemic but I had to let it go for basically half of FMV at the time. And once it ends you have to ship no matter what happened in the auction. Because of that single auction is why I no longer auction any of my coins on eBay. It's buy it now or no deal.

I guess eBay isn't an efficient market with knowledgeable coin dealers moving the price reasonably close to FMV.  At least for some coins, mostly lower-priced.

I will say that I have never seen any high-priced Morgan's or Saints go for anything close to 50% below FMV.  I bought a nice Morgan that should have sold for about $400 and got it for like $350.  But there were like 3 or 4 of us still bidding at or above $300, let alone $200 (which would have been 50% of FMV). 

On 11/2/2023 at 3:21 AM, powermad5000 said:

There was one auction for a coin I wanted, and messaged the seller that people were trying to take advantage of his $0.01 starting bid and were going to lowball him. I recommended he end the auction and relist with a higher starting bid as the coin should have sold for well over $100. He did and I bid high because I wanted it. In effect, he was getting taken advantage of because he was unaware it was a VAM Morgan worth more than a typical date/mintmark and the bidders knew it, but I couldn't in good conscience let the guy get ripped off.

Why wouldn't the price just have risen from $0.01 or even $1.00 ?  I see 4 and 5-figure coins all the time on HA and GC start out at $1 and approach FMV down the line.  The only thing is you see a dozen or more "stink bids" before you even approach FMV.

On 11/3/2023 at 8:06 PM, VKurtB said:

Not my dividing line. I would never consider getting ANYTHING graded that doesn't get above well into three digits, with the exception of things for competitive exhibiting aesthetic purposes. Actually, the decision is based on a price delta. If I don't get the cost of grading back PLUS the price delta between grades, that puppy ain't a-gonna git graded, period. Remember, I don't think in terms of registries.

It's not only for grading, registry, or sales reasons....many people want the holder to preserve the coins and/or easier handling.

On 11/3/2023 at 7:45 AM, VKurtB said:

What I want is actually irrelevant to the analysis. That’s largely the way I conduct business - very retro if not paleo. The error you keep making is thinking being a St. Gaudens collector is “normal”. It’s not. It’s highly unusual to exceptional. The key is KNOWLEDGE. Collectors used to be required to have it, and not be dilettantes that outsource their knowledge requirements to a TPGS. 

Ok, cleared up as I posted above to WC. 

But again...forget my coins....the ones that take up MOST of the dollar-volume...the more expensive coins (and I mean $50 and up)....the ones featured at most coin shows....the ones attracting the most interest in online auctions....for these coins having a TPG grade is probably best OVER TIME.

On 11/3/2023 at 7:43 AM, World Colonial said:

Most coins aren't worth enough money to be graded.

You're still thinking of the coins you buy, which only a very low to tiny minority do.

Yes, true...but not even the ones I buy....let's say any coin over $50, $100 tops....which most every collector of any series would have to probably buy a few of these over time IF they were a serious collector who wanted a complete set OR a few nice "trophy" coins.

Forget my bullion (DEs, MSDs) targets. 

On 11/2/2023 at 8:08 PM, Henri Charriere said:

The latest is Sam the one-time crypto mogul was convicted of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy and is facing 110 years in the clink.  

Surprised they rendered a verdict on the 1st day and after "only" 4 hours.  Congrats to the jury....I was afraid something this complex might confuse 1 or 2 and result in a hung jury.  Personally, I probably would have needed 15 minutes to convict.

You can NOT steal from clients.  The mixing of customer funds with Alameda accounts (the hedge fund) is a huge no-no.

On 10/31/2023 at 1:55 PM, VKurtB said:

Ahh, but it WAS necessary at Nashville. Given the costs, there was NO WAY ON EARTH the IMEX show would not bleed red ink without an admission charge. It's GOING TO BE THE NEW NORMAL. ANA has done it for well over a decade. And NYINC has been $20 a pop forever.

The overhead for NYC has to be much more than Nashville.  I wonder how much they each took in $$$-wise.

On 11/2/2023 at 8:33 PM, VKurtB said:

This is better, but even this is not absolute. Many, if not most, coins should NEVER see the inside of a grading slab.

So you want to go back to the 1960's and 1970's...before TPGs...before the Internet....where if you dealt with a reputable dealer you were OK...but if you dealt with a fraud or a guy who simply didn't know coins, you got screwed ?

So the public wasn't allowed in and retail collectors (like most of us) also weren't allowed ?  Just dealers who bought a table to do dealer-to-dealer stuff ?

On 11/2/2023 at 10:28 AM, Mike Meenderink said:

YES ...But it must be significantly different from the photos. IE Item not as described or photographed. I have sent back coins that did not match the luster in the photo or had unseen damage not described. 

If the guy says it will grade MS-66 and it is MS-64, that might be tough to justify.  But if it comes back circulated with an AU grade, I would think that's enough to reverse the purchase.

Sometimes photos are innocently deceptive.  I have a $10 Gold Certificate.....it looks GREAT from photos, most thought it was in the MS category from MS63-65 or so.  In fact, it's an EF and has some very hard-to-see folks/creases which simply don't show from photos; you don't have to hide them, they just can't be seen except with the naked eye and the proper lighting.

On 11/1/2023 at 10:55 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

I look at many coins at auction each week. All my online dealers or auctions accept returns (within policy) which makes a bit of difference when I am vastly disappointed. I don't buy them all...I wait until one buys me.

Could you have returned this coin if you bid more and won the auction ?

Just curious....

On 11/1/2023 at 10:46 PM, VKurtB said:

About three years ago, I went “cold turkey”. I never bid on anything I haven’t seen in my hand anymore. The only exception is “junk coins” and bulk lots. 

That's understandable.  At least today with the TPGs you can be reasonably sure a coin is as it is graded -- imagine no TPGs and all these coins selling RAW with every Tom, Duck*, and Harry giving them a grade.  And circulation wear is tough to see so imagine all the AU coins going for MS money. 

I will say this:  I haven't run across too many posts where someone says that the (hi-res) pics from HA or GC, and the TPG grade, made them regret a purchase or a coin was way worse in-hand than online.

* Spelled differently because our AI or AI-less algorithim thinks I am saying a bad word !! 

On 11/1/2023 at 5:31 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Krause published several Standard Catalog's, world coins, banknotes, etc.. I would be completely on board if someone, CDN Publishing perhaps, picked up the pieces left over from when Krause was dismantled but I think there is pretty much zero chance of that happening. One of the problems of resurrecting Krause is that it was diced up into pieces, Penguin bought the publishing rights and Numismaster took over the cataloging if I remember correctly. Numismaster vigorously inhales at keeping up to date and why would Penguin publish the old catalogs with no new Pick #'s or Krause-Mishler #'s? It's been a few years now and newer, and better, catalogs have stepped in for some areas where Krause used to reign. Krause is dead, the only question left is what cataloging system/s are going to be used in the future. Right now it's looking like most everything will be specialized and that general, standard, catalogs will mostly go away. 

I have the 27th Edition of the Standard Guide to U.S. Paper Money....and the 9th Edition of the Small-Size U.S. Paper Money.  Bought both about 8-10 years ago I think.

On 11/1/2023 at 6:52 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

This coin has NO circulation wear present at ALL.. the bow tie obv is as struck and the wheat stalks rev are perfect. Disagree with your assessment.

You didn't see this coin in person, right ?

I'm used to buying larger coins from photos or in-person...small denomination coins are definitely tougher for someone like me.

On 11/1/2023 at 6:34 PM, Sandon said:

I recall both of them advising newer collectors, as I do, that one can't accurately grade coins, especially those that are uncirculated or nearly so, from photographs and that in-person inspection is essential for grading. This is especially true when one is looking for uncertified coins that could realistically receive unusually high grades from grading services.

I generally agree with that.....in fact, I have seen the same Saint-Gaudens coin with the lighting slightly changed and the coin went from solid 65/66 to low-60's from my perspective.  I couldn't believe just changing the lighting angle (and maybe changing some camera settings, I'm not sure) could make that much of a difference.  But it did.   

As a general rule, if the coin is properly photographed, you shouldn't be off TOO much though lighting could make a coin look better at a key inflection point grade where it commands alot more $$$.

On 11/1/2023 at 3:13 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

Realistically if the coin graded where I belive it should 3k + would not be outlandish. There are none in MS68 RB..if its a proof..whoha watch out big money.

It could be a $3,000 coin and only went for $265 ?  Interesting.....

On 11/1/2023 at 3:35 PM, Sandon said:

I don't know how this will turn out, but it is preferable to Whitman being acquired by a general publishing company that would be unfamiliar with the standards and needs of the numismatic community.  This is what happened to Krause Publications, whose publications have largely vanished from print.

Doesn't Krause put out currency books which are like the Bible for that set ?

That name rings a bell.....why ? 

Is CDN bigger than WP ?  Hopefully the combined entity is on solid financial ground.