GoldFinger1969

On 12/12/2023 at 11:59 AM, VKurtB said:

The “Greater Fool” theory at work again.

I'm on record that I will not be surprised if one of these threads shows activity in 2030 and BitCoin is over $500,000 or below $10,000. 

On 12/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, Sandon said:

   Coins made as proofs that have wear but are identified as proof strikes are given the same numerical grades as circulation strikes, with the "PF" prefix given by NGC and "PR" by PCGS.  I own a slightly abraded proof-only 1877 copper nickel three cent piece that PCGS graded "PR 58". I've seen coins given the proof prefix with much lower numerical grades than that.

One of the MCMVII Ultra High Relief Saints is graded PR-58.

On 12/11/2023 at 6:13 PM, Olympicon said:

The news about SBF's arrest has certainly raised eyebrows in the crypto community. It's a stark reminder of the unexpected twists and turns that can occur in the crypto world. We'll have to keep a close watch on how this situation unfolds.

Big news isn't his conviction, it's BitCoin going up almost triple since the late-2022 bottom. 

Back to the MCMVII HR's.......

On 12/10/2023 at 12:09 PM, NickNY said:

Coin Talk also banned me for no reason. I bought my first ancient coin at an auction last April. It had a small black spot, but it looked great otherwise. I wanted to know how to remove the spot and restore the coin. I couldn't find the answer online, so I joined Coin Talk to ask. I was polite and said I was new. Someone replied that the spot made the coin more genuine because it showed its age. I thanked them politely, but the next time I logged in, I was banned.  If I violated some rule by asking this as a new collector, then screw them. They should be more understanding of people who are not old collectors who complain about paying more than $80 for a mint coin like they did in the 60s.

As for the Coin Talk owner/moderator, he will get what he deserves. I hope he gets banned from a forum when he asks a question he doesn't know: like why his wife's boyfriend disrespects him. Stay away from Coin Talk.

It's possible their software or a Mod inadvertently assumed you were someone trying to evade a ban.  Nothing in your post indicates anything close to a TOS violation.

If you write to the webmaster or other email address that the site has, I am sure you would be reinstated if you did nothing wrong.

Roger, your 12,367 estimate for MCMVII High Reliefs......is that before or after the 1,246 were melted ? 

I presume those melted HRs were not up to spec.

BARRON'S article in "Up & Down Wall Street" the lead section of the weekly.

The author notes:

• Gold has lagged over all kinds of time periods since 1800 vs. stocks or bonds.
• Gold is only 15% above the inflation-adjusted high from American Civil War during the 1860's.
• Gold has returned only 0.3% since 1800 in real terms.....3% for 10-year government bonds....7% for stocks.
• Gold returned 56% annually from 1976-80 and 20.6% a year from 2001-11.
• Gold @ 8.3% annually last 20 years vs. 9.7% for S&P 500. Gold @ 4.1% vs. S&P 500 at 11% last 40 years. 5.6% since Dec 1975 vs. 12% for stocks.
• $2,400 is doable according to technical analysis
• Global CBs on target for record buying: 1,180 metric tons for 2023.
• $2,400 feasible on the charts.
• $3,000 feasible if we can close above $2,100 on the monthly chart by end-December.
• Inflation-adjusted high is $3,333 in early-1980.

The entire piece is worth reading. Mentions Indian buying of oil from OPEC, global conflicts, gold vs. Treasury yields, and other tidbits.

BTW, BARRON'S is must-reading for me each weekend and has been since the 1980's. 

Looks like a small short had to cover on that day, Power....$2,152 intraday (intra-night  ).  A short-term blow-off top apparently.

Still....holding above $2,000 should keep the trend going.

Henri, how specifically did you find out about and decide to collect Roosters....considering there had to be much less reading material about them (and other foreign gold coins) compared to Saints and Liberty's...Eagles, Half Eagles, etc.?

Even today, I can't find much stuff on Roosters on the internet, had to be tons less back in the 1950's and 1960's, no ?

On 12/10/2023 at 8:42 AM, ldhair said:

Only 25 days to go. It's going to be a great show. If you have a table number, please post it. 

I have personal and family obligations which prevent me from going , but I am going to try and hit FUN 2025.

I will miss not re-establishing my friendships with LDhair and others whom I met at FUN 2020.  But have a great time, enjoy the show, and report back ! 

Fairmont Hoard:    It's the gift that keeps on giving ....it's lasted YEARS now....most of the coins and Double Eagles are from 1850 through the 1920's according to Doug Winter.  Can't remember if there have been many or any Saints (will check) but most of the coins are from the 1800's and most of the DEs are Liberty Heads including lots of CC's.

One of the articles by Winter said it was originally tens of thousands of pieces...whether it is really one big hoard or whether it's the accumulated assets from lots of banks and individuals, I can't say.  But apparently I'm not the only person asking how big this hoard is and how long it will go on for.

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2023/11/17/five-random-observations-about-the-most-recent-fairmont-sale-november-2023

On 12/4/2023 at 2:55 PM, RWB said:

No. The closest U.S. coin was a half eagle - $5

Yeah, I confused "half ounce" with "half Eagle" ......half eagle is 1/4 ounce of gold, 0.25 ounces of gold.

On 12/4/2023 at 11:51 AM, RWB said:

Double eagles and eagles were not consistent with European trade and commerce. European gold coins usually approximated the sovereign in size and weight. It is those pieces that heavily dominate bank "hoards," the Nazi thefts, etc.

You mean 1/2 ounce and 1/4 ounce gold coins, right Roger ?

But DEs and Eagles HAD to be used with European trade/commerce -- there were millions of coins over there.  Granted, the $$$ value still probably much less than gold bars but still a decent amount going back-and-forth, right ?  Plus the coins sent to Canada, Asia, South/Central America.

On 12/3/2023 at 1:52 PM, Henri Charriere said:

When bank robberies, larcenies and burglaries became problematic years later, the FBI advised banking association [and presumably the mass media to refrain from providing specific figures on the losses expropriation. Wise move.

Could you keep something like that secret ?  The police and insurance companies -- and regulators and politicians -- would need to know if $500 or $500,000 was stolen.

On 12/3/2023 at 12:26 PM, RWB said:

Could the daughter-in-law have collection info, etc.?

The surviving widow is his 2nd wife, she's still alive.  He and his 1st wife divorced in 1971.  3 children, not sure with which lady.

I swear....I've seen more people ask about errors and other valuable anomalies in the last 6 months than I did the last 10 years.

What's going on ?  Is some influence saying he or she is getting rich with pocket change ?

On 12/2/2023 at 11:35 PM, RWB said:

His diary provides few details and contemporary newspaper articles don't add much. I never found an inventory of the theft.

Wow, I didn't know his SON was John Ashbrook, a favorite of William F. Buckley and NATIONAL REVIEW who challenged Nixon in the 1972 GOP primaries !!  The father was a Dem, but John was a GOP'er who represented the same district/area.

Tragically, John died in 1982 at age 53 from a gastrointestinal hemmorage while running for the Senate. His widow filled out his congressional term; she is still alive.

On 12/2/2023 at 8:14 PM, RWB said:

His diary also includes a little about the theft of his main coin collection from the vault of a Savings & Loan he owned. He never really collected coins again.

Wow, sounds interesting.  Those vaults even back then were tough to get into, assuming it was a walk-in.  Most thieves would just rob the bank, it was easier and quicker than spending an hour or two trying to get through 6" of steel after-hours.

On 12/2/2023 at 8:15 PM, RWB said:

Nice! Now you owe all of us a set of authentic Morgan dollars.

Yes, like the ones I saw advertised last night at 4 AM...."Only 340,000 minted, not millions.....with only several thousand in the valuable Mint State, your About Uncirculateds are the next best thing.....here you can see being offered for sale for $3,000 on Ebay.....yours here for only 2 payments of $199.99.  Limit 10 per household.  Order now, operators are STANDING* by."

*This is total BS...everybody knows they are not standing by, they are sitting down. 

I'm not opposed to "talking ones book" as we say in my trade....but the reason these forums exist are NOT to indulge commerce or facilitate sales...it's to learn about coins and the hobby and related items.

Ebay, Craigslist, Etsy, etc....all do sales and I think have their own forums, too.

I certainly give a wide berth on what is appropriate here -- I like to go off-tangent every now-and-then, too  -- but certainly when someone comes across this place for the 1st time we want them to see helpful, engaging, though-provoking discussions, threads, etc.  I'm doing my part to participate in others and also have created a couple of active threads myself.

That is all....

That's helpful, maybe I'll do a little work on Ashbrook.  If anybody would have thought this through, a coin collector would have. 

Roger, what documents or discussions have you seen that talked about the decision to melt down all the Double Eagles into gold bars ? 

There had to be a debate, no ?  I get that 400-oz. bars are easier to facilitate trade...but if they went through all the time and expense of striking all these coins (including the smaller denominations) over DECADES....didn't someone...somewhere....say "Hey, maybe we just want to BAG and STORE these things and wait until things settle down....before definitively and irreversibly melting them all down ?"  I get that they waited about 3 years until 1937...why not just send (most of) the bags to Fort Knox instead of doing all this work to melt down tens of millions of coins ?  Where's the necessity ?

The big decision was to take us off the gold exchange standard.  Why the rush to melt down coins into bars, aside from just making it a bit easier to store and since bars were better to facilitate trade (which wasn't a priority since everyone was leaving the gold exchange standard anyway ?).

Maybe you footnoted 1 or 2 key sources in the book, if so, I'd like to scour them more in-depth.  Or maybe there really wasn't a debate.....they just figured gold coins were for people and those are the ones who will no longer be allowed to hold gold so ditch the coins ?

This entire melting of the coins -- seems like nobody at the White House, Treasury, Mint, or collectors of the day....Assay Commission folks...or advisors....even talked about it and said "Stop the rush."  

I get that there was a Depression and 25% unemployment....they certainly had more pressing things to do with their time...but somewhere...someone....you would think...had to spend a few minutes pondering this decision and listing the pros and cons. 

At least I would hope so.

On 2/23/2023 at 9:31 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

PALLADIUM PRICING:  Figured I'd give some thoughts on palladium prices.  I am EXTREMELY bearish on the price for palladium and that entire white metals group.  They took off on speculative frenzy and cutbacks in Russian supplies. Palladium is basically a 1-trick pony that is used mostly in autos for catalytic converters.  That is about 80-90% of annual demand, about 10 million ounces annually.  However, with the switch to EVs, that source of global demand is going to decline every year out to 2030 and then beyond.  Plus, in the short term, U.S. and global auto production is being cut as automakers cut down to save $$$ and throw it into EV CAPX.  The U.S. used to produce 17 MM autos each year; now it is 13 MM.  Similar cutbacks globally.  Palladium rose from $500 in 2016 to $3,000 a few years ago.  I can see it going back to half the price of gold in the next few years, maybe sooner. All PMs are speculations, but palladium doesn't face headwinds going forward...it faces a hurricane. 

So far, palladium and platinum have gotten hit since I wrote this, relative to gold.

Platinum has done OK, probably since it was substituted for pricier palladium and this kept up demand.  But palladium is off 30% as it was much pricier than platinum and it was cheaper to use that in the face of falling ICE demand.

Now that they are both about the same price per ounce, it will be interesting to see where they go price-wise.  90% of underlying ICE demand is at risk and I would not be shocked to see either or both at $500 an ounce within a few years.

This was in production from 1927-1957 ?