GoldFinger1969

Central Bank buying is increasing.  Many smaller-to-medium sized CBs know they can sell it for more to their domestic populace as per-capita gold consumption increases as I have outlined here before.

Central Bank Gold Binge Is Even Bigger Than Previously Thought

• World Gold Council raises its estimate for purchases
• Expansion of bullion reserves has underpinned prices this year

New ATH intraday for the COMEX contract, not sure about spot but it's either there or short by a few bucks.

On 12/1/2023 at 8:19 AM, zadok said:

...not sure i can go along with this assessment, there was n still is an expectation of collateral backed currency in this country, gov't maintained bookkeeping not a big assurance in the mind of the general populace n as for the gov't being predictable? just look at FED policies for the past several years...if u stopped 100 people on the street anywhere in the US, ala jay leno, n asked them bout the backing of US currency i bet u 97% would tell u its still backed by gold in ft knox....

FDR even said only 3-4% of the currency could be redeemed all at once for gold.  Again, it's why it was a gold EXCHANGE standard and not a true, classical gold standard.

The Gold Clause plaintiffs didn't even want gold, just more dollars in the higher valued face value for their bonds.

From the Bowers book, the ships in the 1850's apparently weighted mostly about 1,000 tons (give-or-take) and would hold 1-3 tons of gold upon return.

Some ships may have been larger and a few decades later, I am sure the ships on average were bigger.

On 11/30/2023 at 10:11 PM, dcarr said:

The FED had liabilities of at least 20,000 metric tons of gold but had no gold to cover that. FDR relieved the FED of its gold obligations and also assigned the title to our gold to the FED. That was a classic "bailout".

"Gold cover ratios" have nothing to do with currency in circulation vs. gold reserves.  It's about maintaining a liquid, functioning market with predictable FIXED exchange rates.  That's what the gold exchange standard was predicated on.

How much gold backed our currency is not important.  Predictable monetary policy AND exchange rates are what mattered.

Dcarr, the Fed "printing money" or engaging in Open Market Operations is not the actions of a bailout or interest-free loan.

It's what every central bank does. 

On 11/29/2023 at 11:08 PM, dcarr said:

FED officials obviously make a lot of money on the side. Why else would they take such an "underpaid" job ?

Same reason Donald Trump and Joe Biden and others do:  they enjoy and value public service.  They enjoy the responsibility.  It's an ego trip.  Whatever....

There are fewer Fed Chairman in our history than presidents.  They have alot of power and responsibility.  It's the one job in government I would eagerly accept. 

Yes, these were covered in David Bowers' Liberty Head DE book.  He gives examples of how much and how long it took to get to California through various means (land, thru Panama, etc.).  Also the costs...and how much you actually made once you got there.

On 11/29/2023 at 8:40 AM, Henri Charriere said:

Here's my prediction for the new year as regarding silver and gold:  I believe a new support level has been reached and precious metals, with but a few corrections now and again, will begin their slow inexorable climb to higher ground has begun.

I've said it for years:  I didn't know where the next $300 move in gold was, up or down....but the next $1,000 is UP !!! 

On 11/29/2023 at 7:53 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

$2,055 this morning, close to the all time high set back in 2020.

It's a triple top we are trying to breach....about $2,075 (intraday and closing different levels)....right on the door. 

On 11/28/2023 at 2:20 PM, dcarr said:

(1) Assigning title and transferring possession of gold are two different things. You apparently didn't read what I wrote. The US Treasury maintained physical possession of the gold, but title to that gold was assigned to the Federal Reserve.

The Fed didn't control the gold anymore and didn't control monetary policy.  That's the key.  That is why Eugene Meyer, Fed Chairman, objected and resigned.   

BTW, his daughter was Katherine Graham who would run The Washington Post for decades after her father bought it in the 1930's when he left the Fed. 

On 11/28/2023 at 2:20 PM, dcarr said:

I stand by what I wrote. Why go to all the trouble to issue Federal Reserve Notes ? It would have been easier for the FED to just order United States Notes from the US Treasury. But then the FED wouldn't be, in effect, receiving a huge interest-free loan that way.

There is no "loan."  The government's balance sheet is the same whether the Fed or the Treasury record an asset or a libaility.  The Fed and Treasury each have different functions.  

Where is this "loan" ?  When was it paid back ?  Again, the Treasury controlled the Fed until 1951, telling the Fed to peg interest rates during WW II.

The U.S. Mint (coins) and the Bureau of Engraving and Printing (currency) each operate under the Treasury.

On 11/28/2023 at 2:20 PM, dcarr said:

(3) We are discussing the end of the Gold-Standard era, not modern FED operations. The FED realized huge profits for their member/owner banks during the time that they were allowed to keep 100% of the FED's profits.

Define "huge profits."  I gave you the numbers in recent years...anywhere from $50 - $125 billion per year.  Not that large on a balance sheet averaging $7 trillion dollars.  JP Morgan alone makes $30 billion a year in a good year.  You want us to believe a sum 2-4x larger...distributed among  HUNDREDS of banks....is material to the banks ??   Sorry, it is not. 

On 11/28/2023 at 2:20 PM, dcarr said:

(4) The FED typically has owned a quantity of US Treasury Bonds. They earn positive interest on those bonds. But they could buy those bonds using funds from what was essentially a zero-percent interest-free loan. FED profits went to the member/owner banks. Those records are not generally public information for the earlier years of the FED.  The official salary of the FED Chairman is of little importance. Their salary is supplemented by "investment" income. I'd like to see the official income tax returns for recent FED chairpersons.

They are LOSING money right now on many of their bonds. 

They don't need to get any bogus "zero-percent interest free loan" since they create money, that is high-powered reserves, through the NY Fed's System Open Market Account and open market operations.

The Fed made about $35 MM - $75 MM in annual profits in the 1920's through the 1930's.  Hardly large profits.  The Fed paid $10 MM in "dividends" to member banks in 1930, par for the years before and after.  They split that money with 8,000 banks.  Do the math and tell me again what a racket the Fed and the banks are !!  

The Fed chairman and others are underpaid.  They could each command salaries that are 10-50x what they earn at The Fed.

I wonder if this Bazor gold coin was designed to compete with American Double Eagles or other larger/1-ounce coins from other countries ?

Clearly, the French people preferred smaller gold coins for hoarding/commerce, just like Americans.  Who knows, maybe the French government and central bank figured a 1 ounce gold coin would be hoarded less ? 

On 11/28/2023 at 6:14 AM, Henri Charriere said:

For the benefit of members, like me, who had never heard of the French 100-Francs Gold Bazor, it may be of interest to know there are 5 set registrants who are owners, all whom had managed to acquire at least one example, all. dated 1935 and certified MS,-64. One member owns 3 of the sets, the same gentleman who currently owns (and will soon own) 5 of the top 10 sets on NGC'S Set Registry for the 20-Francs gold roosters.  (Note:  It is possible to start a set with a single coin and if the majority of F100GF Bazors were never released or melted down, the only  option for set registrants who collect this brief line of coins is to either upgrade or acquire the only other generally available example dated 1936.)

So while millions were minted, none were released, right ?

Most were melted, but some were NOT, right ?

If both of those are right....I would wonder why they were released at all and/or why they all weren't melted down.  Seems like some snuck out ala the 1933 Double Eagles but clearly the French government has not assigned Inspector Clouseau to track them down unlike what happened here ! 

Hey, he got back the Pink Panther, he can certainly find those 100 Franc gold coins ! 

On 11/28/2023 at 5:36 AM, dcarr said:

Title to most of the 6,000 metric tons of gold owned by the US Treasury was assigned to the Federal Reserve in 1933. This was done by exchanging US Treasury Gold Certificates for Federal Reserve Notes.  ed-seal United States notes were issued in quantity from the early 1900s up until series 1966-A. These notes were widely used, but did not have any gold-clause printed on them. Why did the Federal Reserve issue Federal Reserve Notes worth 56,000 metric tons of gold ? And why did they put "Redeemable in Gold on Demand" on them when they had no significant quantity of gold ? For that matter, why did the Federal Reserve issue any notes at all ? If nobody had the gold, why not just issue more red-seal United States Notes (via the US Treasury) instead of Federal Reserve Notes (via the Federal Reserve) ? That is what JFK wanted to do. The reason is that the Federal Reserve profited handsomely by being able to issue Federal Reserve Notes. It was basically a zero-percent interest loan to the Federal Reserve in the amount of the total face value of the Federal Reserve Notes issued (36 billion dollars total, from 1913 to 1933). I'd sure like to be able to borrow several billion dollars at zero percent interest, invest that money and keep all the proceeds, and have the government bail me out if those investments go sour. Note that prior to (I think) 1951, the Federal Reserve member/owner banks were allowed to keep 100% of the FED profits. It was only later that the FED was required to remit at least 94% of their profits to the US Treasury.

Wherever you are getting your information from is wrong:

(1)  All gold resided with the Treasury after the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.  Ours was the only Central Bank NOT in charge of the country's gold.

(2)  The different verbiage on our currency is beyond the scope of this particular thread and not particularly relevant.  But the Fed is our central bank so of course they printed currency (in partnership with the Treasury Dept.).

(3)  The Fed doesn't "profit" -- any profits from open market operations, check clearing, etc...are all swept to the Treasury on an annual basis.  This has been the big talk in the bond market with the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks reversing years of "profits" swept to the Treasury being replaced with losses that won't reverse until 2024 or 2025.

(4)  "....the shareholder rights of the System’s member banks are limited and tightly regulated."  "Dividends" are at the discretion of the FRB and are normally credited against member capital accounts and required reserves.  You imply that there is free money being given to the banks.  There is not.  Show us the disclosure where even a large money center bank tied to the NY Federal Reserve Bank (the largest and most profitable of the 12 banks) got substantial dividends.  They aren't.  They're not even paid for the most part -- they are de minimus.   Profits were minimal or nonexistent in the 1930's and 1940's.  If there are all these "profits" at the time, where did they go ?  They didn't stay with the Fed, they didn't get swept to the Treasury, and no large banks reported them, either.

The "profits" from the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, etc.) are much larger historically than the Fed's but some people seem to think the Fed is making tons of money.  They aren't.  If they were, the Chairman of the Fed -- maybe the most powerful person in the world on economic matters -- would be paid more than $225,000 a year. 

The cleaning marks are clearly visible on Liberty's cheeks and in the fields.

As for the Fed being bailed out.....the Treasury got the gold, not the Fed; it was the predecessor of the Exchange Stabilization Fund.  I don't know why you are fixated on the Fed unless you are just restating those anti-Fed websites.

You keep focusing on the amount of gold reserves vs. printed currency and whether ALL gold obligations could be honored with the given gold stock.  Nobody disputed that it could NOT. 

But it doesn't matter about being able to meet all gold obligations in gold any more than banks can't meet every deposit liability when the money is in mortgages of your neighbors, as George Bailey once opined.   The Gold Clauses plaintiffs didn't want gold, but they wanted the change in the dollar value of gold to be reflected in the amount they received (in U.S dollars).  It was the fixed ratio that mattered, not actual gold.

Dcarr, thanks for posting the info from your website.  Yes, you have an expired certificate.... whatever that means. 

I'm not sure what listing all the currency in circulation amounts to.  It's not really relevant to explain what happened in the 1920's and The Great Depression.  "Cover ratios" were low in some of the countries and relative to years earlier but not significantly so.  And the gold exchange standard means nothing for the solvency of the Federal Reserve System.

As for the French Franc.....

On 11/27/2023 at 2:15 AM, dcarr said:

The last 20-Francs gold coins were minted in 1914, and they contained about the same gold content as the rare 100-Francs gold coins of 1929-1936. So at some point between 1914 and 1929 the French Franc was devalued in terms of gold to 1/5th of what it was.

WW I and the aftermath up to 1926 you had the devaluation.  France bled gold....but then, as I noted above, they tightened a ton and more so than the U.S. they overtightened and helped wreck the gold exchange standard.

Welcome....do alot of reading of the threads here. 

Decide WHAT you want to collect....and also decide if it matters to you if you put $$$ into coins that don't have much investment appeal.  This is not a hobby to "invest" in -- you are speculating, if anything -- as your love for coins and the hobby itself are the reason to buy coins.  But if you buy coins that appeal to you or are of interest to you...you should know how much future volatility you could see in their future price.

However, if you put $500 or $10,000 into certain coins, if their going down in value 25% or 50% or 65% would cause you agita, then look before you leap and ASK QUESTIONS from the vets here.   

Probably a few hundred dollars for a non-PM coin or a silver coin....for a more expensive coin, it would have to be bullion (gold) value.

Would love to get an MCMVII Hight Relief at some point but unless I am light-years better as a grader with tons more familiarity with all the ins-and-outs of the HR's....and can trace the provenance of the coin and/or know the seller/dealer/collector....I'd rather pay MORE via a certified/TPG coin to make sure I am buying legit.

If I were to buy a common or semi-scarce RAW Saint and pay 25-50% over gold bullion for it...and I guess wrong on the grade or it's been altered/cleaned....bullion is my floor value (BTW, I've never bought one raw).  But on a condition rarity or MCMVII Hight Relief coin where I am paying MULTIPLES of the gold price.....my downside could be thousands or even high-4 or low-5 figures.  Unless I have recently won MegaMillions, something I would probably not want to risk. 

For silver coins (moderns or Morgan SDs) I have less downside in absolute dollars unless I buy a very valuable MSD.  I've paid a huge multiple of silver's price for MSDs but all were TPG graded/certified.  Silver was $20-$30 and I paid $400-$750 for a few of my pricier MSDs.  For modern's, mostly $125-$250 for 1, 2, or 5-ounce silver coins.  

So with silver, unless you buy a really pricey MSD, your absolute $$$ at risk (if not the % downside) is more limited than I am likely to see with gold coins (Saints or Liberty's).

Of course, small denomination coins with minimal or no PM value can sell for a huge premium to their FV and could present a huge risk if you buy raw.... unless you really know the series.  I could be wrong, but I see fewer people saying they bought a pricey small denomination post-1932 coin raw than classic gold or silver coins.

Good topic, lengthy subject title. 

On 11/26/2023 at 7:44 PM, Coin Awed said:

Would you say all gold coins should be authenticated through grading?  With the price of gold the way it is…seems like the cost might be worth it…

Welcome !! 

A personal choice on common coins like Double Eagles that are worth spot gold at worst, but with any coins that have some date scarcity or condition scarcity value....it could be worth it. 

A holder also is a good way to protect the coin, make it easy to handle, and ease in the ability to facilitate a future transaction.

FYI, there are a number of Double Eagle and Gold Coin threads here if that is something you'll be pursuing either collection-wise or interest-wise.  

The Rooster Crows:  Interesting fact I came across while reading about gold and foreign/domestic policies in the 1920's and 1930's:

"...On June 25, 1928, when the franc was legally stabilized, the gold reserve of the Bank of France was 29 billions of francs. On October 28, 1932, the gold reserve of the Bank was 83 billion." 

Seems like it wasn't the French citizenry hoarding gold, but the BoF !!! 

On 11/25/2023 at 11:05 PM, VKurtB said:

I bought a coin at Chard’s of Blackpool, England in December of 2019 that was marked “XF”. NGC graded it MS65. I was surprised it made it to 65, but I could see it was MS something. I’ve now been to the U.K. twice on coin hunts, and it is EASY to cherry pick on condition/grade there. 

But MARKED XF by someone who could be very knowledgeable or a novice or anything in between, especially overseas, is one thing.  I presume we're talking about TPG graded from EF to TPG high-AU or low-MS.

I'm sure it happens -- probably on more obscure or rare coins -- but it certainly isn't the norm.

Older and inactive threads here should definitely be saved by anybody interested in the content and saved in Word or PDF format. 

I save the RWB Saint-Gaudens Book thread every 5 pages.  You never know if a thread gets some cyberattack...the entire site.....etc.  The more obscure and rare your personal interest -- Roosters, anybody ?  -- the more particular threads may have useful information even if you are an expert on the subject. Forget the "GTG" and "What do you think of this coin" threads -- interesting but nothing irreplaceable.  

Look at the back-and-forth on the Mafia and the MCMVII High Relief Omegas....lost apparently for all time. 

All the more reason to save 'em.