GoldFinger1969

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GUESS THE PRICE:  I've never been a creator of those "Guess The Grades" threads....but following a bunch of MS-67 1908 No Motto Saint-Gaudens recently I thought where they priced out on GC was really fascinating.

Can you guess the approximate prices on these 4 coins...or even tell which ones went for the most and least ?   They're pretty well-spaced price-wise so you might be able to get it right. 

Don't cheat...I'll post the actual prices they went for in a day or so, unless more people are participating and going back-and-forth.

Wow.....MS-67 Saints (1908 NM's) for $5,500 and less.   

More to come later in the Saint Pricing Thread.

On 12/17/2023 at 11:37 PM, VKurtB said:

And abandoning their previous partners.

They were not really partners, they were sort of vendors in the same general area.

Don't forget JA did have a role early in the start-ups for PCGS and NGC.

On 12/17/2023 at 10:27 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Triopoly, with CACG at the top and everybody wondering if all the U.S. coins in PCGS and NGC holders weren't good enough to cross. 

I think that was beginning to happen anyway, FM. 

I noticed the asking prices from sellers being too high and lots of CAC coins not getting bids.  Buyers are (correctly ?) assuming that if a CAC coin hasn't upgraded by now, it's NOT going to get the higher grade, with the higher price that would command particularly at inflection points (i.e., Saints at MS-67 vs. 66).

On 12/17/2023 at 10:27 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

I wonder if this possibility has anything to do with the number of world coins in brand new PCGS holders hitting the market the past 6 months. I've never seen so many PCGS world coins, they don't pull in premiums like PCGS U.S. coins do over NGC U.S. typically 

Interesting, wasn't aware of that.  Any reason why PCGS has this huge amount of world coins of late ?  Any hoards found ?  Could NGC maybe not handle the load and wait times too long (I know NGC commands a premium in foreign/world coins) ?

deleted dupe

Liquidity and number of transactions matter to FMV, too.

I can tell you price points for the 1908 NM Saint very easily because there are so many that you have sales quite often.  Ditto the 1924 and 1927 Saints in most grades up to MS-66.  But when you get to MS-67 and MS-68, transactions there are every few weeks or months.

On 12/16/2023 at 8:14 AM, Greenstang said:

eBay policy states that you can ask up to $2500.00 for an uncertified coin as long as it is not misrepresented.

Really ?  Anything above that they won't allow ? 

As long as the item had a return policy I would be OK with going above that.  

I always wondered why, like their auto website, there wasn't a separate "Experts Only" Ebay or something like that for more pricey coins where maybe you had to be certified or put up a bond or something like that.  Place that could more easily compete with HA or GC, etc.

On 12/15/2023 at 10:40 AM, Coinbuf said:

Your scenario is not part of GAAP (generally accepted accounting practices) as I leaned them.   No sale has occurred nor can there be any reasonable expectation of a sale just because a listing has been created.   Yes companies are allowed under GAAP to accrue sales, but those are sales that have actually happened but payments will be delayed into a future reporting period.   Creating a listing is not a sale, it is a potential sale but not an actual sale, the reason a company can accrue sales is to properly match sales and inventory in the period that they happen.   Accruing sales that have not occurred would not be in line with GAAP accounting, at least not as I learned it, and this is especially true of a company like ebay where there is no matching of inventory to sales.  Now I received my accounting degree in the late eighties and have not been a practicing accountant for over 25 years, so I am not up on any changes to GAAP so I do admit that it is possible this has been changed as a way to make the income statements look better than they really are and keep the stock price inflated.   But I sure hope that is not the case as it would be wrong in my opinion and could be used by management to overstate sales, mislead investors, and lead to unwarranted bonuses for management.

Last time I checked an analyst report on Ebay (it's been a while), but I am sure that listings per se did not accrue any revenue.  Treated like inventory....you can't recognize it as a sale.

If we need to, I can dig up a report.

It's not just Ebay sellers....I see the coin infomercials all the time using artificially high prices from years ago.....and/or....using an ASK price on Ebay (item unsold) as the true market value when it's 1/2 or 1/4th that level or less.

Amazon has passed both UPS and FedX in total packages delivered.  Wonder if they will branch out, like they did with AWS from Amazon.com's servers.

On 12/17/2023 at 11:45 PM, Coinbuf said:

I would say that my experience is the polar opposite of yours when it comes to CAC.   Almost every CAC graded or stickered coin I have and the vast majority of those I have viewed are superior to a high percentage of those of the same grade in other brands or without stickers.    And so far, a high percentage of CAC stickered and graded coins have asking prices or realized auction prices that are in excess of standard guide prices.   Certainly, anyone can find a few examples of stickered or graded CAC coins that have not outperformed the guides but as an overall those are the outliers not the norm.

The one fly in the ointment....at least for the series that I track heavily (Saints, Morgans)....it appears that the premiums have begun to dissipate possibly because of the start-up of CACG...but also because most people feel that if a coin has CAC and has NOT upgraded by now...that it won't be going up in grade.

Where "inflection point" prices and grades are involved, I see the sellers simply being too greedy...too high....in their asking price.  This is using mostly GC and some HA as my references.

On 12/17/2023 at 11:28 PM, VKurtB said:

So far, the actual plastic slab at CACG is a piece of junk, relative to PCGS or NGC. They’ll need to improve it, and not just a little. The service is fine. The product is not. 

You mean the appearance or the composition ?

On 12/17/2023 at 9:58 PM, Sandon said:

Historically, large submitters (dealers) have been perceived as at least tacitly pressuring grading services toward looser, not tighter, grading standards. If such large submitters believe that coins that they submit will regularly grade lower at CAC than at NGC or PCGS, will they still submit them to CAC?   

Do you think that the volume of non-modern coinage submitted yearly has increased in recent years vs. 10 or 20 or 30 years ago ?  You would think that most of the coins have already been submitted, right ?  Once the TPGs were established in 1986-87, I would think the initial rush was the highpoint.

For instance, I would think that yearly the number of Double Eagles submitted now vs. then -- and also for Wheat Pennies, Franklins, and other classic coins -- probably dropped off, right ?  I think PCGS used to put out a Population Report every year but I believe they stopped a while back. 

If PCGS and NGC have the total of graded coins online now....then a snapshot on December 31st of each year would show how the trend is going. 

On 12/17/2023 at 9:58 PM, Sandon said:

I doubt that most experienced collectors would be willing to pay a premium over retail list prices for a CAC graded coin in a given grade merely because of the holder it is in. They will only do so if they actually perceive the coin as pleasing for the grade.  I haven't found most of the CAC stickered coins I've seen to be appreciably nicer than non-stickered examples certified by the same services in the same grades, and I'd rather find a coin I find accurately graded and attractive that isn't stickered or holdered by CAC than pay a premium for a CAC stickered or holdered coin in the same grade.

I agree this is the LOGICAL position to take, Sandon....but I am not sure it will hold up when you have PERCEPTION and PRICING at stake.  That is why PCGS coins command a premium on domestic coins even when a discerning eye can't tell the difference between 2 similar coins (PCGS vs. NGC) and NGC has the same on foreign.

When was the last trophy coin you saw that did NOT come in a PCGS holder ?  

When was the last time that the top coin in a series, or at least a few of the Top 5 coins, did NOT have a CAC sticker on it/them (aside from the 1908 NM Saints) ?

Perception is strange, Sandon.  You had a famous collector who ASKED that a 1927-D Saint get a lower grade -- so it could CAC sticker there as opposed to the higher grade.  Weird...... 

On 12/17/2023 at 6:37 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

Beyond PCGS Gold Shield beyond CAC beans beyond NGC MAC or PCGS MAC certified coins are the new CACG certified coins that are bringing big premiums due to the company's reputation for very accurately grading coins. Do you think these other companies will design a line of services to match or rival this relative newcomer? Tell me what you think below do they need to counter CACG or should they just stay business as usual?

I think it's too early...we need to see how long any premium persists and if it allows CACG to grab significatnt market share.

Suppose someone submits a coin.  They are sure it's MS-65 and MAYBE MS-66.  They send it to CACG.  It gets an MS-64.  Great, they have a premium 64 but even with a premium price on it it's at a DISCOUNT to the same coin in an NGC or PCGS holder at MS-65.

Now...if they are a good grader and they think their coin is a 65 and it comes back CACG MS-65, they're ahead of the game because in the past unless you got a 66 from PCGS or NGC....or if you got a 65 from them you would then have to submit to CAC and hope for/get a CAC bean....now you're ahead of the game.

The Big Boys with trophy coins will have a big say in how the 3 TPGs are perceived.

On 12/17/2023 at 11:37 PM, VKurtB said:

And abandoning their previous partners. I can only hope that all the CAC sticker bootlickers will have enough remaining saliva to lick all the new CACG slab boots too.

It will be fascinating to see what The Big Boys do in terms of valuing CACG vs. PCGS (with or without a CAC) or NGC (ditto). 

This is where a trade organization would be helpful in determining or caluclating market shares for the 4 or 5 active TPGs.

On 12/17/2023 at 12:47 PM, Thomas Little said:

Before they started their new grading company in VA they were offering to buy coins they sticker but have now discontinued that which takes away a significant part of sending coins into them.

Right, they said they'd sort of be a "market maker" in the coins they sticker....but did anybody ever really take advantage of that, outside of maybe approaching them at coin shows with stuff to sell ?    Doubt people would mail them coins, right ?

I'm not sure how they could also be a BUYER without also doing SELLING -- right ? 

All CACG is doing -- correct me if I am wrong -- is putting pressure on PCGS and NGC (and the others) to make sure that the numerical grade assigned is STRONG for the coin.  Doesn't mean it will or should upgrade 1 increment higher....just that it's not a "crappy" coin for the grade or overgraded.

The abscence of a CAC sticker didn't imply that the coin was overgraded...just that it might not be strong for the grade.  When CAC began, the purpose was to designate those coins that were "A" (strong for the grade) and not worry about "B" (fair for the grade) or "C" (weak for the grade or overgraded).

Right ? 

On 10/1/2023 at 5:37 PM, zadok said:

…her too 😉,10+ in my book…im big favorite of casandra peterson too….

Met her during a bomb scare at CHILLER convention in Parsippany, NJ a few years ago ! 

Seems like the price for coins graded by CACG are at a big premium to other coins maybe because there's scarcity and lots of demand...while with the traditional CAC sticker, there's a shortage going forward since they'll eventually stop.  Personally, I'd be more willing to pay up for a sticker than the grading service because I am not sure they'll turn the PCGS-NGC duopoly into a triopoly.

This article had some good stuff:

https://www.coinagemag.com/cac-coins-bring-premiums-in-november-2023/

On 12/14/2023 at 12:06 PM, VonZilla9 said:

Or the buyer is not so honest and will give me grief.  Say they did not get it or some BS like that.

In the immortal words of Oscar Madison when he was on "Let's Make a Deal".......take the money and run !!  

On 12/12/2023 at 8:34 PM, Sandon said:

    I also had a FedEx delivery of coins submitted to NGC last week.  The package was supposed to be delivered on Wednesday by 3 p.m., and after that time had passed by "the end of the day". Then the delivery date changed to "unknown".  It apparently got on the delivery truck the next day at noon and was scheduled to be delivered by 4 p.m., which around that time changed to "by the end of the day." This was literally correct, as the deliveryman rang my doorbell at 11:29 p.m.!  He told me that they were "backed up."

   The Postal Service has also been unreliable, especially since the pandemic started. Last year a package sent registered mail tracked to my local post office and disappeared for several days. It was only found and delivered after I made inquiries.

I have a USPS Priority Mail delivery "In Transit" in Newark to Maryland.  It's been that way since Memorial Day, 2021 !!!  

Doesn't FedX take pics now of deliveries ?  Or is that Amazon ?  That should be standard so if they misdeliver, their photos are proof they screwed up.

In my complex, we have 3 streets and they often misdeliver to the same number but wrong street.

On 12/12/2023 at 9:23 PM, Henri Charriere said:

You are, essentially, advocating for someone with whom you are unacquainted. 

No, I don't think so.  He says he can't even reach someone there.  All I'm doing is letting someone at CT know that someone is not able to login or even contact Help at CT.  Of course, from what I have been told, he's not on any banned list and didn't commit any TOS violation from his descriptions of posts.

Others had this problem some time ago.  If they are lying about avoiding a ban or suspension, I suspect CT will know and also let me know, too. 

Right now, if they are innocent, they can't even reach someone to tell them.  That's all I'm facilitating. 

On 12/12/2023 at 2:00 PM, World_banknote_collector said:

That's how fascist dicktators are born...ConTalk ban is a blessing.

Different people have different experiences.  Even here, some of us have friction with some posters, others don't.

What I think is best is that each of the 4 main coin sites -- PCGS, NGC, CT, and CAC -- each have their specific strengths in certain niches.  For instance, for me, NGC is probably the most useful because of the RWB Saint-Gaudens Book Thread (with tons of comments by Roger and other great posters). 

No way I could re-create that thread elsewhere -- it's invaluable (which is why I back it up on my PC every 5 pages in PDF format )

On 12/11/2023 at 12:27 PM, NickNY said:

I tried contacting multiple times. There was never a response, so I gave up. I tried opening a fake account, but their application is broken. So i just gave up. Thanks for the suggestion

If you PM me your CT name, I can contact someone there (or try to) and see if that expedites matters.  Your choice.