GoldFinger1969

I think the Original Bubble was a result of overestimating the liquidity of coins as TPGs were brand-new (<3 years old) and you also had people afraid of financial assets because of the October 1987 Stock Market Crash. Then you had the real possibility of Wall Street $$$ buying coins en masse and this drove up the prices like 100% overnight. When the $$$ didn't materialize... KABOOM !!! Absolutely none, I agree. To me, anybody buying into fractional has to do it for any non-financial benefits. Maybe you shrink the pool of investors and the coin(s) can be seen by one and all at a big coin show or something. Fractionals combining their buying power might be able to have influence by going after high-end best-in-class coins that are sought by super-collectors for their registry sets.

I agree, it would only appeal to current U.S. coin collectors.....maybe. It might turn out to be a fad but I can see it materializing with some people who want to give it a 1-time shot. OTOH, it might not have appeal to coin collectors who are used to buying something and then having possession of it.

The baseball card bubble was almost certainly a 1-time event caused by a confluence of 1-time events: baseball being the national pastime for almost a century (not anymore)....kids growing up on baseball (TV, Little League)....kids flipping the cards (me !).....mom throwing out our old baseball cards leading to scarcity. In short, there's hardly any interest today in baseball cards (as the video I posted showed). But there's steady demand for coins via interest in precious metals, gold, silver, specific coin types, etc. Saw some video while looking for the one I posted....it showed like 18 card stores in a 1-hour driving triangle of Orlando that were there 30 years ago and today are all gone.

$10 Eagles ? You know people who got them pre-1933 ? Wow.... Nonetheless, even the 1907 High Relief Saints haven't scored a 70 and many went straight to velvet pouches.

Well...in fairness these Forums are about coins so I guess going off tangent from baseball cards to coins is allowed. I find both interesting so let's keep talking about 'em both.

XOM made some terrible decisions like buying XTO Energy when natgas was $7/mcf. They paid $40 billion for something probably worth $10 billion at most. And they've been pursuing growth instead of worrying about the balance sheet. Your wife is actually pretty smart. No need to double-up with both your job and financial investments in 1 sector. That said, there could be a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity in coming months for the whole sector. Paul Sankey, my old colleague, is now setting up his own shingle and his commentary and thoughts on the sector are free (at least now) if you want to read them. Paul is probably the preeminent energy analyst the last 3 decades: https://www.sankeyresearch.com/2020/10/18/sunday-fall-sankey/

Just a thought....has ANYBODY been talking about or hearing about fractional COIN ownership ? Or did we just segue into it from baseball cards ?

Intermediate Grade School Collectors ?

WC....FWIW....I believe Chevron's dividend is safe. Good balance sheet.

Outstanding post, WC. Ultimately, people have to be willing to HOLD PM's or coins and not based on The Greater Fool Theory of someone coming along to pay more. Stocks and bonds can be held because they participate in the growth of the real economy and/or pay dividends and interest. Coins do neither. That said, I can certainly see a few isolated "blind pools" or SPACs dedicated to coins coming out. But its one thing to simply pool existing $$$ from existing coin collectors. Let's see MORE people become coin collectors and/or more WEALTHY individuals want to spend $$$ holding PMs and coins (maybe some of the Silicon Valley super-rich ). That would expand the coin collecting base...bring in new $$$ for many years or decades (not a 1-2 year bubble)....and maybe enrich people to understand that coins are not just pieces of metal but art, history, and our nation's story all rolled into one.

Stocks and bonds pay dividends and/or participate in the REAL growth of the economy. Precious metals and coins do neither.

I'm not so sure about this. If a "bubble" does develop you may be right. But you also may just develop a new form of competition for high-end coins that wasn't there previously. You could have people creating what we used to call "blind pools" and today are called SPACs (Special Purpose Aquisition Companies) where a large number of people give $$$ to someone to invest. I could see someone raising $1 MM or $2MM or even $5 MM for "The Saints Collective" and only buying high-end Saints and reporting back to his/her hundreds or thousands of investors. Similar to the old Merrill Lynch/Kidder Peabody pooled funds that never materialized but still led to a stampede in 1988-90. This may run into CFTC, SEC, or other state/federal investment or commodity laws.

People who are not serious collectors have to KNOW about the coin....know it's available...know the story behind it. The 1933 Saint-Gaudens that went to auction in 2002 was well-known to many wealthy non-collectors because Saint-Gaudens was a sculptor...the coin's pedigree was well-known....many wealthy people owned a premium Saint or their parents or grandparents did and told them about it.

But 2 guys who know one another partnering on a coin is one thing. They know each other...trust one another...can split ownership of the coin. Big difference when you have 1,000 guys each with a $10,000 share on a million-dollar coin. Can't be passed around, nobody knows anybody in the group.

I think his theme was that you want to get the collectors as kids or 1-time collectors to take a greater interest and get into Morgans, Saints, or other coins that entails bigger time or dollar commitments. Think of the folks whose only NFL football interest is watching the Super Bowl. How do you get those people to watch football more regularly....play fantasy football....go to a football game...watch every Sunday ? Same thing with coin collectors....just deepen and increase their involvement.

No, coins are NOT financial assets. They are speculations....commodities.

I agree that for those who want to play the PRICE APPRECIATION GAME, the fractional method makes kind of sense. Hell, you might see the pooled resources of 100 or 1,000 coin collectors giving the heavyweights a run for their money the next time a million-dollar coin is up for sale. However..... folks buy coins because they want to own them....hold them....show them off. This fractional thing makes that an impossibility.

I'm using the main SEARCH function to look for older threads that might have useful information on popular coins, i.e., Saints. Not seeing anything really come up....it might be because of the layout change a few years ago. Maybe the older threads are gone ? Mostly I get the recent threads which I already see or coins that were/are for sale. Comments ? NGC Moderators, feel free to chime in here, I thought about asking this in one of the other NGC Forum Sections.

You probably had lots of people into art and wealthy people who heard of the 1907 HR from their friends and they all wanted the coin. Seems like 90% of the demand was probably from non-collectors. The GSA Morgans were relatively less so more people could own them but you probably had many people who didn't own any other coins who sent in for a GSA. Many I suspect knew about the 1904-O riches a decade earlier.

I was there during the Baseball Card Bubble of 1986-1992. It was fun....it was packed full of exciting kids. Now...... This is a great retrospective. It's at the same location that houses the monthly Parsippany Coin Show:

Roger, how many of these sub-Treasury clerks were there back then ? Are we talking hundreds or thousands....or just a few who each bought hundreds of coins each ? I'm trying to make the numbers work, since you said that "almost all" of the 12,367 got out that way.

I should have gotten a few, but I was busy watching John McGraw and the NY Giants. Christy Mathewson was pitching.

Nice job, Cat ! You can read this book straight through from Page 1.....skip chapters and bounce around....or just use it like a reference book for the years you have interest in (reading the non-Saint Year/Mintmark chapters some time). I liked when Roger included Akers comments (I have the 2nd Edition of his book so the stuff from what appears to be the 1st Edition was particularly interesting to me) and comments from dealers from the 1930's - 1970's. Fantastic book. If Heritage is smart, they'll sell it at future coin shows and also give some away as a door prize to folks who stop by their tables and/or attend (register for) their auctions at the shows.

I've gotten better on Saints as my research and ownership and studies have increased. But I can't ever envision spending only seconds to judge the coin. I would feel I rushed things, like recommending a stock or bond based on looking at the financials for 30 seconds only.

I would think that auctions among club members are not as important as 30 or 50 years ago. You have coin shows and online for that. Maybe better would be -- since you have multiple collectors of different types ("no 2 members are into the same material") -- to have veterans/experts in their area of expertise say what is happening in their sector price-wise....noted sales or auctions....TPG and supply trends....etc. I would rather get a 5-10 minute update on pricing and other trends on coins I am not familiar with that brings me up to speed rather than have unnecessary auctions.