GoldFinger1969

OK, great job....so it seems they are short $800,000, at least in 2018. If the collection could be sold, that would really be helpful -- for all we know, the coins or other property is not reflected at true market value. Regardless, $37 MM would provide about $1.6 MM in annual endowment income which would certainly help. As coins, this part of their assets can't generate any annual income as best I can tell. If the Other Investments is the financial assets -- stocks, bonds, other investments -- that should be providing about $1 MM right now. It's possible that non-financial assets (coins) can NOT be sold if they were bequeathed, I don't know. You would also think that the ANA should be in a position to get a nice donation either while living or upon death from a member or wealthy coin collector who would like to bequeath a legacy. But you have to ASK as the ANA and/or coins are not at the top of most people's donation list, even wealthy people with plenty of $$$. Maybe someone at the ANA should spend a few hours working on this.

As an example, Roger, I don't think it matters to much if a common Saint is graded MS62 or MS63 -- it's going to track bullion at either grade Heck, it can go down to MS60 or even AU58 and not suffer a price hit. OTOH, there's a HUGE jump in value from MS66 to MS67 for commons like the 1923-D. The coin jumps from about $3,500 to $12,000. So you just don't see a sloppy misgrade of a coin like the 1923-D at inflection points. Maybe it's just because they naturally tighten up or are more careful or spend more time grading as you approach the mythical 70 grade level or other inflection points. It's at those levels that you are more likely to see a "+" or "*" than at MS62 or MS61.

Roger, and wouldn't you say FOR THE MOST PART...those condition have been met ? Pre-TPGs, who knows how accurate or fair most dealers or coin shows treated buyers. Maybe they were accurate 50% of the time....75%....90%. I have no idea. But I know lots of times coins were not off by numbers but by entire conditions (MS vs. AU vs. EX vs. VF, etc.). But I'd say today the TPGs get it right...what.....95% of the time ? 99% ? 99.9% ? Depends IMO on if you want to give them a 1 or 2 grade increment leeway to gauge the accuracy.

Anybody know what the annual budget for the ANA is and what the endowment provides ? That would clear up some things.

But no 2 coins are exactly alike to the naked eye -- unless they are maybe MS70 or MS69, and in the case of non-modern coins those coins can be counted on 1 or 2 hands (usually ). So go back to my post above. The grading HAS to be subjective because the DATA is not exact. You can agree that 2 Saints-Gaudens DE's are both MS67 but one has more dings on the obverse and the other has them on the reverse. Dings on the devices vs. dings in the fields vs. dings on the rim.....same, worse, better ? No 2 coins get dinged up or scuffed the same way. Major similarities aside, you have to weight the differences. And that is definitely subjective.

Hmmmm.....I wonder if she is available to help me liberate those 1933 Saints held at Fort Knox ?

Regrettably, I think you are right, Kurt. It's possible that thousands or tens of thousands of Liberty's and/or Saints were kept as a store of value but subsequent inheritors of the coins may have parted with them. I don't expect that many people back then were modern-day Silas Marners but you just figured that with banks not having transparency (except maybe major banks in urban areas) that more people would trust gold coins including Double Eagles. But I guess not. And I thought that paper money ("greenbacks") needed decades to recover from the experience of the 1860's.

But even "technical grading" without regard to market conditions can be subjective. Many here don't mind and even pay up for toned coins. Personally, for the most part, I hate toned coins. I'd probably grade a coin 1 or 2 grades lower for toning. Am I wrong ? How about grading 1 or 2 small gouges on a Saint-Gaudens field.....vs......lots of little dings ? How many "dings" equals a gouge ? How about clean fields but dents and dings on the rim ? Would 2 coins each with 5 or 6 dings grade the same if one had them in the fields and the other the rims ? What about on the devices ? Back to Saints....do you equally weight the reverse and obverse ? Does a ding/gouge in the obverse field penalize more than a ding/gouge on the reverse with the Eagle ? And if it's in the fields is it worse than in stray areas like the word LIBERTY ? What about the details in Liberty's face ? I don't think technical grading answers these questions (maybe I'm wrong). But all these are subjective and I think each grader weights them differently, starting with the Obverse vs. Reverse preference.

I think we can all agree that the current grading system has its flaws and the TPG's aren't perfect....that said.....we are definitely better off than we were before the TPGs came into being in the 1980's. Who knows what might have been created or what frauds perpetraded since the Internet came into being the last 20 years without the TPGs ? You see all the fraud with them....without them ? Ugghhh..........................

If I ever get reincarnated and can go back in time....I want to live in the late-1800's and early-1900's. I'll clean up !!

If you are staying multiple days, can always stay in the outer boroughs or suburbs and save $$$.

Interesting....have you seen the % of slabbed stuff increase over time ? We know Europeans aren't into TPGs as much as we are.

Here's one reason why I'm surprised the holding rates for gold coin ownership from 1870-1930 aren't higher: If you assume that today we have a few million serious coin collectors and folks who like to hold (some) gold....out of a nation of 330 million....that's about 1% of the population, conservatively. Could be a higher number but let's work with 1% which I think you will all agree isn't an aggressive estimate. If you assume average populations of 55 million in the late 1800's and 100 million in and around WW I....that would imply at least several hundred thousand people collecting or holding gold during those times. Fewer, for sure, given reduced standards of living and other variables of the day. But you could certainly make a case that gold coin collecting (in various denominations) should not have been all blue-bloods in NYC, Boston, and Philly.

1924's in MS65 at 2,750 ? That's a 44% premium to spot gold, I think it's way too high and I see plenty of MS65's asking LESS than that on Ebay which tends to be high on price. I see active Ebay bidding at about $2,300 for an MS65. That's about a 20% premium which is where they have been on average the last 8-10 years or so. So....the overall and relative (to the 1010-D) price is definitely lower for the MS65 1924. As it should be, given the populations you cited.

Seems like you are saying that the NYINC dealers are like mini-Stacks, Heritages, and other high-end sellers, right ?

Wow...if that story is on some thread somewhere, I'd be interested in seeing it. I think I posted here and on CT the story of the Franklin that went from MS65 to MS67 CAC or something like that. $500 coin to $12,000 coin.

I have seen the Threads and coins that mysteriously went up 2 grades. I don't like it, and if I had sold a coin for $600 that a few years later got 2 upgrades and sold for $6,000 I'd be pissed, too. But BY AND LARGE...in the vast majority of cases....within 1-2 numerical grades....the TPGs and the community get it right. Look, there's (thankfully !!) a limit to how high "grade inflation" can go. There's no way that an MS63 Saint can be passed off as an MS67. Maybe an MS64, maybe with luck it makes it to Gem State MS65. But that's about it. Maybe more numbers can be bypassed when you go from AU to MS but most of the time the $$$ there are not as large so there's no incentive to gradeflate. There are problems with the TPGs and gradeflation, nobody can deny it. But today's hobby IMO would be much much worse had the TPGs never come into existence.

Is there a fee paid if a coin is submitted but does NOT get re-slabbed and graded (higher) ?

Sure, but it depends on what kind of Saint you have. Many common, lower-graded (< MS63) Saints track bullion with the slightest of premium, sometimes a slight discount (remember, a Saint is just under 1 ounce). But higher gradeds will trade at a premium that rises and falls over time. Premium Saints -- like the 1907 High Relief -- trade at such a premium that unless the price of gold moves like 50% or so, you may not see it reflected in the price. If gold moved up a few hundred dollars (let's say 20%), commons would certainly move about that amount whereas 1907 HR Saints might be unchanged to up slightly. Depends on how big the move into Saints is relative to bullion.

Yup, although most of the inventory seems to repeat. You wonder if, for instance, the Parsippany Show should be bi-monthly or quarterly. But I guess the economics work to do it monthly or they would have changed the frequency.

Near me, the quarterly Westchester Show has been fading but it's still alive. But the newer Mt. Kisco Show which I attended late last year before the virus hit seemted to have a few newer dealers (even though it's in the same general area) and a much nicer location. Also, the Parsippany Show in NJ has held up very nicely since it can draw from NY, NY, PA, DE, and MD even though it's a 1-day Sunday monthly. Again, how these shows bounce back I don't know since I haven't attended any shows since February. I doubt ANY of the local shows have taken place since then, too.

I saw it advertised at FUN -- February or March, right ?

I DID take the train. Train down, flew back. But with the seminars starting before the show and the train needing parts of 2 days to get to Florida, it means I have to leave even earlier to take the train and take the courses in the future. I kinda wish the courses ran concurrent with the show. I've been meaning to do the Baltimore Whitman Show as I could check it out in 1 day with driving. It's probably 3 hours away, less if I leave from my parents home in NJ. Ditto the Bay Head Show which I understand has increased in popularity in MA (again, for me probably 3-4 hours driving 1-way if I want to make it a 1-day event). NYINC show is easy to attend if I want to since I live in the NY suburbs. Larger regional shows near lots of collectors seem to be doing OK in recent years. The "cheapo" monthly or quarterly shows are losing attendees and dealers but the larger regionals along the East Coast especially seem to be doing OK.

1st time at FUN 9 months ago....met some of the posters here and at CT....had a GREAT time, only thing different would be to book the same hotel as the guys and also not schedule my dinner with a friend on the same night as the dinner with forum folks.

I get you. For me, FUN was part vacation...part see an old college friend....part coins...and part "Get Out Of New York in January." For me at least, FUN makes tons of sense and the timing is good (January tends to be a slow month).