Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[RWB]

"Skipping around" is permitted.

[GoldFinger1969]

4 minutes ago, RWB said:

"Skipping around" is permitted. 

Thanks..... 

The 1st time, I read every single paragraph of every page.  Hitting specific sections is a nice change-of-pace.

[RWB]

14 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

I think it safe to say these comments made on your original post followed by an ongoing spirited exchange with the author, as well as other curious and/or knowledgeable types/collectors over the following twenty-plus pages, has made it virtually impossible for me to resist the urge to go out, get a copy of this book and read about a coin I have always admired but never had the opportunity to acquire. Very stimulating thread!

This is something that most coin book authors would like to have with readers - meaningful dialog. Everyone benefits from the back-and-forth discussion, clarification and focus, plus on a message board it is in a fairly compact and accessible format. Frankly, I've learned a lot about the book and had to re-examine content and language in response to questions and observations. It is an author's luxury to have readers such as GoldFinger69, take the time and interest to dig into any coin book - and especially rare for a book as numismatically new and complex as this one.

I must also give a lot of credit to Heritage leadership in trusting my approach. I know it was a little overwhelming and not something they initially expected.

[GoldFinger1969]

And thanks to you for your contributions above and beyond the book itself, Roger !

You and HA are to be commended because not only is the information and the book invaluable, but the LAYOUT itself and the topics covered for every year/mintmark make the book very user-friendly.  Then there are the extra chapters on everything from The Gold Standared to Copper Spotting and their location in the book which really adds to the reader experience.

As you know, I am re-reading certain sections based on my heightened interest in those parts as well as the back-and-forth discussion in this thred where I or others raised questions.  I've also saved all the threads to make sure this thread survives any internet debacle. 

If HA is smart, they'll consider giving away a few copies of this book (and maybe other books they have published) as an enticement to new sign-ups and bidders in their auctions and also presence at coin shows (when that starts again).  Net cost to them (way below retail) is a small price to pay for new and loyal customers.  If they have a special Saint-Gaudens auction or a special Saints coin or just a lot of Saints going off on a particular auction, giving away the book as a free door prize or raffle rmakes sense (as opposed to an auction of a collection of Franklins or Barbers ).

Edited October 31, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[RAJ on COINS]

On 10/31/2020 at 12:13 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If HA is smart, they'll consider giving away a few copies of this book (and maybe other books they have published) as an enticement to new sign-ups and bidders in their auctions...

That is actually how I got my first copy.  Heritage sent it to me free and unsolicited because they had seen my participation in a couple of double eagle auctions.  They also send me free catalogs of relevant material.

[GoldFinger1969]

51 minutes ago, Ross J said:

That is actually how I got my first copy.  Heritage sent it to me free and unsolicited because they had seen my participation in a couple of double eagle auctions.  They also send me free catalogs of relevant material.

Wow, that's great Ross !  Happy readings !

Have you been an active buyer of Saints and/or other coins/stuff @ Heritage ?  I've been an active bidder but haven't won any Saints via HA (won currency + other coins). 

The HA catalogs themselves are great resources, filled with information and great pictures.  Got a few of them down at FUN though HA hasn't sent me any (yet) as I guess I am not considered a "heavy hitter" in their online rankings. 

[Henri Charriere]

Not knowing much about the Gaudens gold DE series (1907-1933) I was curious as to whether you, the author or anyone else had any observations to make regarding today's release of NGC's five top and bottom performers.

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Not knowing much about the Gaudens gold DE series (1907-1933) I was curious as to whether you, the author or anyone else had any observations to make regarding today's release of NGC's five top and bottom performers.

Can you provide a link ?  Not sure what you are referring to. 

[Henri Charriere]

13 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Can you provide a link ?  Not sure what you are referring to. 

Terribly sorry, I don't know how.   NGC provides a Weekly Market Report (this one is Nov 5, 2020, Vol. 10 Issue 45.)  It's a free news letter I always thought was sent to all members covering the entire U.S. spectrum indicating by how much percentagewise coins have appreciated or depreciated in value, unless you choose to unsubscribe. This week's installment focuses on Morgans and your Double Eagles. If you use the CLNTACT US feature, I am sure someone will be able to help you.

[GoldFinger1969]

22 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Not knowing much about the Gaudens gold DE series (1907-1933) I was curious as to whether you, the author or anyone else had any observations to make regarding today's release of NGC's five top and bottom performers.

I'm awaiting someone at NGC send me the newsletter you reference, but maybe you can tell me what the Top 5 and Bottom 5 and any commentary was referencing ?

[GoldFinger1969]

More interesting tidbits from the book:

• "Copper Spots, Red Spots, Gold Corrosion and Stains" is a fascinating chapter on those things that drive us nuts but for which information (aside from the web and specialty numismatic periodicals) is very rare.  The metallic chemistry and other chemical reactions are a bit in-depth, but very interesting.
• "Luster" was really informative.  Luster is light reflecting off thouasands of tiny ridges and grooves of metal in the smooth areas of the coin (fields).  The crystals in the die face minutely change as 120 tons of force struck the metal.  Smooth die fields then became microscopic ridges and grooves.
• "Striking Quality" gives you a few areas of the Saint-Gaudens DEs to focus on for quality striking detail.
• South American DEs tended to be of higher quality than those coming from Europe (more bank-handled).

[Henri Charriere]

16 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm awaiting someone at NGC send me the newsletter you reference, but maybe you can tell me what the Top 5 and Bottom 5 and any commentary was referencing ?

I tried several times to get this information to you yesterday quoting a free NGC newsletter, to no avail.  Every attempt was either deleted en masse or blacked out under the all-inclusive "error."  I am going to try one more time:  the top five performers (minus dollar amounts) were:  1. 1915-S MS63, up 35%; 2. 1922 MS63, up 31%; 3.  1928 MS64, up 29%;  4. 1911-D MS63, up 27%,;  5.  1925 MS65, up 21%.

The bottom five performers were:  86.  1913 MS63, -7%;  87.  1907 HIGH RELIEF WIRE RIM, -9%;  88.  1911-D MS66, -14%;  89. 1926 MS66, -14%; and 90.  1924-S MS65, -25%

I don't know what upset the censors or why my reply to you was blocked,  but I do hope this is helpful (minus the prices.)

 

[GoldFinger1969]

Thanks QA....must have been a PC glitch, can't believe NGC didn't want NGC info posted here.

Wow, I actually bought a 1915-S earlier this year !

Are those performances YTD ?  Last year, going back 12 months ?

 

[Henri Charriere]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Thanks QA....must have been a PC glitch, can't believe NGC didn't want NGC info posted here.

Wow, I actually bought a 1915-S earlier this year !

Are those performances YTD ?  Last year, going back 12 months ?

 

Yes.  Nov. 2019 - Nov. 2020.  If you can manage to access a copy you will find the actual dollar figures.  It seems to me the higher grades suffered a worse fate.  

***

As long as you mentioned the 1915-S, the one in MS63 rose 35% to $2300 from $1700.

Perhaps you can direct a reply to: ngcemails@ngccoin.com

Finally, the "Market Commentary" features Jeff Garrett:  Zoom Sa es the Day. (COVID-19 has forced the ANA to adapt to our new, virtual world) a lengthy piece you are sure to find interesting.

Edited November 7, 2020 by Quintus Arrius
Additional infofmation

[GoldFinger1969]

Not surprised to see the 1907 HR among worst performers (no grade given).  But the AU's I followed earlier in the year were pretty weak.  Only high-end 1907 High Reliefs (> MS 65) seemed to be doing well on HA and GC.

[GoldFinger1969]

55 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Yes.  Nov. 2019 - Nov. 2020.  If you can manage to access a copy you will find the actual dollar figures.  It seems to me the higher grades suffered a worse fate.  ***As long as you mentioned the 1915-S, the one in MS63 rose 35% to $2300 from $1700.Perhaps you can direct a reply to: ngcemails@ngccoin.comFinally, the "Market Commentary" features Jeff Garrett:  Zoom Sa es the Day. (COVID-19 has forced the ANA to adapt to our new, virtual world) a lengthy piece you are sure to find interesting.

I see the Commentary from JG available on this website; it's the price guide that isn't listed.

I have an actual MS-63 1915-S I bought at FUN in January.  I paid just over $1,600 as I recall and it was a slight premium to the actual gold price at the time (I can check later) and then a bit more when you account for the 3% discount to 1 ounce found in Saints.  Not sure why it sells for $2,300 now -- that is a HUGE 15%-plus premium to spot without taking into account the sub-1oz. size !!!

[Fenntucky Mike]

If you go to your email settings in your NGC account you can have them email you their Weekly Market Report.

Here's the Saint's info for what it's worth

You can also use the NGC Price Guides they keep them pretty up to date for U.S. coins, but can be on the high side. People tend to knock 10 - 20% off those prices and use that number as a gage.

Here's a link to the price guide for the Saint's https://www.ngccoin.com/price-guide/united-states/gold-double-eagles/70/ 

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm still waiting to see an actual newsletter to see more detail....but it's pretty easy to come up with multiple coins that represent bullion, quasi-numismatics, premium numismatics, and ultra-rares.

Unless a bunch of one year or mintmark come out for sale or at once...or the population data changes...declines for one kind of coin should be pretty much mirrored for others of the same type (over time).  In other words, focusing on the SPECIFIC coins is a bit too specific as there might not be many liquid buys/sales to establish a true FMV or price.

I think an MS63 grade for the 1907 HR is a pretty popular combination....but why an MS64 for the 1928 ?  Why not MS65, the first level of Gem Quality ?  Or go down to MS63 or 62 to better approximate generic bullion ?

I appreciate all the sales data from NGC, PCGS, HA, etc...but what might be really great is an index comprising multiple Saints...or better yet, an index for generics, quasi-numismatics, premiums, etc.

JMHO.....

 

Edited November 10, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

8 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm still waiting to see an actual newsletter to see more detail....but it's pretty easy to come up with multiple coins that represent bullion, quasi-numismatics, premium numismatics, and ultra-rares.

Unless a bunch of one year or mintmark come out for sale or at once...or the population data changes...declines for one kind of coin should be pretty much mirrored for others of the same type (over time).  In other words, focusing on the SPECIFIC coins is a bit too specific as there might not be many liquid buys/sales to establish a true FMV or price.

I think an MS63 grade for the 1907 HR is a pretty popular combination....but why an MS64 for the 1928 ?  Why not MS65, the first level of Gem Quality ?  Or go down to MS63 or 62 to better approximate generic bullion ?

I appreciate all the sales data from NGC, PCGS, HA, etc...but what might be really great is an index comprising multiple Saints...or better yet, an index for generics, quasi-numismatics, premiums, etc.

JMHO.....

 

Valid concerns.

[GoldFinger1969]

7 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

Valid concerns.

Not really "concerns" so much as recognizing that ideally a price or FMV represents a large number of transparent sales continuously.  With our coins, no 2 are exactly alike but even those given the same numerical grade can often have minute differences, sell at different times, meet different levels of demand, etc.

Still....it's better than nothing !  

[GoldFinger1969]

FYI...the 1907 High Relief Saint drop cited above....you go back 2 years and it's down about 20-25% for an MS63 grade even though gold bullion is up nicely.

Edited November 10, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

FYI....some Saint-Gaudens, nice grades, on auction tonight @ Heritage.

[GoldFinger1969]

More book tidbits:

• 70,290,930 = total number of Saint-Gaudens coins minted, 1907-33.
• 26,951,006 = known melted coins
• 3,707,975 = total known survivors
• 43,339,924 = theoretical survivors not known to have been definitively melted or destroyed

Nearly 40% of all known Saint-Gaudens survivors are 1924-P's (which don't have a mint mark, btw).

I myself was surprised that the total of confirmed melted coins is that low (thus leaving open the possibility that 43 MM escaped destruction). It stands to reason that actual survivors is a fraction of that 43 MM (where the heck could they be? ).  We certainly haven't seen any hoards of late (I guess the last major hoard was the 1908 No Mottos).

[RWB]

The "total minted" and  "known melted" are well-documented quantities from US Treasury/Mint records and limited foreign bank records.

"Total known survivors" comes from post-WW II physical counts of looted gold and coins restored to rightful owners; plus estimated extant collectible pieces. 

"Theoretical survivors" are just that: theoretical. It is not known what happened to these coins. Most were probably melted and recoined after export from the US as part of business and international loan transactions. During WW II Germany and Sweden melted coins and bars so they could be reassayed and freshly stamped - this avoided questions when the new bars were offered in payment for war materials to Portugal, Switzerland, Spain and others. Small hoards remain in France, Belgium, Netherlands, and elsewhere in Europe, but they do not constitute a significant quantity. (These will "pop-up" with generational changes.)

The situation is better documented than for Liberty DE, but the unknowns are large and probably undiscoverable.

[GoldFinger1969]

6 hours ago, RWB said:

"Theoretical survivors" are just that: theoretical. It is not known what happened to these coins. Most were probably melted and recoined after export from the US as part of business and international loan transactions. During WW II Germany and Sweden melted coins and bars so they could be reassayed and freshly stamped - this avoided questions when the new bars were offered in payment for war materials to Portugal, Switzerland, Spain and others. Small hoards remain in France, Belgium, Netherlands, and elsewhere in Europe, but they do not constitute a significant quantity. (These will "pop-up" with generational changes.)  The situation is better documented than for Liberty DE, but the unknowns are large and probably undiscoverable.

Roger, so you are saying that a large portion of those Saints (and earlier Liberty's) were melted OVERSEAS.... in addition to lots of DE's overseas staying in Mint bags (the hoards we found over the decades) ?

If it's the majority of that 43 MM in Saints, it's not a small number, it's damn big !!

Also, I guess everytime a hoard is found that 43 MM number goes down and the 3.7 MM number goes up a bit.

Edited November 16, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

18 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Roger, so you are saying that a large portion of those Saints (and earlier Liberty's) were melted OVERSEAS.... in addition to lots of DE's overseas staying in Mint bags (the hoards we found over the decades) ?

Yes. That was normal.

The coins of individual countries were/are for internal use. Once outside their country of issuance, they are merely metal bits. A double eagle was just a little chunk of gold and copper. In the USA it was a legal tender for exactly $20 - including when slightly worn. Outside of the USA it was valued only for its weight in pure gold. DE were routinely melted and made into local legal tender coins. If some of these made their way to the USA, they were just weights of gold-copper alloy and melted. (Until development of the southern gold fields, all US gold coins were made from melted foreign coins.)

[GoldFinger1969]

Still seems like alot of coins to have been melted down unless they did it CONTINUALLY over the 1907-1960 period.  It seemed like melting coins here in the States was a big operation when we started in 1933 and it took a few years to knock off 26 MM coins.  You had multiple countries and mints over a longer period of time in Europe....but unless they had an organized melting operation that was continually melting DEs....you would think more coins MIGHT (?) be out there in bags or SDB's.

[RWB]

The quantity likely melted per year was small when compared to total trade balances and the value of gold bars moving back and forth. The quick profit on non-USA holdings after January 1934 likely stimulated coin melting. After all, having boxes and bags of gold coins siting around was a waste of money....bankers did not like to waste money. The US accepted coin gold from foreign countries at the full $35/oz rate. If your bank or business had US trade connections, you could get a fast 87% profit.

[GoldFinger1969]

4 hours ago, RWB said:

If your bank or business had US trade connections, you could get a fast 87% profit.

You didn't have to melt it or send it back to the U.S. though, did you Roger ? 

DE's were $20 face value....if you SPENT it, yeah, $20 U.S.....but if you sold it to another bank or a licensed dealer or another government (not sure of overseas restrictions compared to 1933 FDR EO's) you could get the full $35 that 1 ounce of gold was worth.

[RWB]

Treasury accepted for import coin bars or US coins at full bullion value. The Gold Act of 1934 eliminated all domestic legal tender provisions of gold in ALL forms. If your company in London paid for US goods in dollars and the company held US gold DE, you could get an instant 87% profit. (Domestic coin was still redeemed at face value, but the coin collection exemption could often be invoked for small sums. Large sums could be laundered by smuggling into Mexico, then importing, or "high grading" -- adding scrap to melted coin, or mixing coin gold with native gold. )