Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[GoldFinger1969]

3 hours ago, olympicsos said:

There were other concerns as well, there was income inequality during the 1920s on levels that are similar to today, even though the economy was good. If people really were putting aside coins for savings the way you think people should be putting them aside, you would have way more Walking Liberty halves before 1934 in MS, way more Barber halves in MS, way more SLQ's in MS, way more Barber Quarters in MS. I mean Quarter Eagles during the 1920s tended to be paid out during the holiday season and then re-deposited back in banks in January, same thing for silver dollars outside the west. 

Going by face value, I don't think that WL's or Barbers or other coins would be saved to any large extent.  I mean, you COULD do that...but it's much easier to have $100 in emergency savings with 5 double eagles than a bunch of nickles, dimes, quarters, and half-dollars, right ?

You also have the immigrant communities at that time who you would think would be partial to gold.

Again, many people -- including my family ancestors -- turned in their gold/coins in 1933.

I go back to the 1932 Saint request list that Roger reproduced in his book....only about 120 coins or so were requested.  That's in a nation of 115 million.  Would be very interested to see what retail/household demand was for saints 8-10 years earlier when times were good.

[RWB]

RE: "You also have the immigrant communities at that time who you would think would be partial to gold."

In 1900 Director Roberts asked steamship lines how much gold passengers carried in and out of the US. Here are a couple of replies. There are many more, but all are similar: Immigrants carried little gold in or out, First Class passengers used letters of credit, gold exchange was often done on board ship.

Edited October 15, 2020 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

34 minutes ago, RWB said:

RE: "You also have the immigrant communities at that time who you would think would be partial to gold."

In 1900 Director Roberts asked steamship lines how much gold passengers carried in and out of the US. Here are a couple of replies. There are many more, but all are similar: Immigrants carried little gold in or out, First Class passengers used letters of credit, gold exchange was often done on board ship.

That doesn't surprise me, most of the immigrants at that time were very poor and probably had very little money (esp. after paying for transit) when they first arrived in America.  Conversely, many Jewish refugees in the 1930's and 1940's did bring gold, including Saints hidden in clothes, suitcases, etc.

Very interesting letters, BTW, thanks Roger. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

Diamonds.

[GoldFinger1969]

10 minutes ago, RWB said:

Diamonds.

Them too !! 

[Cat Bath]

The IRS reports an average annual income of $3,269.00 per person or about $63/week in 1920.

I routinely carry 1/3 of a weeks pay in 2020 dollars & I'm not what I'd consider wealthy.

It still seems odd that saints weren't used more.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Cat Bath

[GoldFinger1969]

11 minutes ago, Cat Bath said:

The IRS reports an average annual income of $3,269.00 per person or about $63/week in 1920. I routinely carry 1/3 of a weeks pay in 2020 dollars & I'm not what I'd consider wealthy.It still seems odd that saints weren't used more.

I think that figure is inflated, a Google quirk.  When you look at more specific averages (or medians) you come up with about $1,000 - $2,500 per year depending on hourly wage and city/region where worked.

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/union-scale-wages-hours-labor-3912/union-scale-wages-hours-labor-may-15-1921-492986?start_page=68

 

[Cat Bath]

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think that figure is inflated, a Google quirk. 

I got my information here (page 2) but I didn't research it much.

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/20soirepar.pdf

Edited October 17, 2020 by Cat Bath

[RWB]

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think that figure is inflated, a Google quirk.  When you look at more specific averages (or medians) you come up with about $1,000 - $2,500 per year depending on hourly wage and city/region where worked.

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/union-scale-wages-hours-labor-3912/union-scale-wages-hours-labor-may-15-1921-492986?start_page=68

 

 

2 hours ago, Cat Bath said:

The IRS reports an average annual income of $3,269.00 per person or about $63/week in 1920.

I routinely carry 1/3 of a weeks pay in 2020 dollars & I'm not what I'd consider wealthy.

It still seems odd that saints weren't used more.

The IRS numbers are for persons paying income tax.

Average annual income was $1,200 to $1,500 and most families had one income, not two as is common today. In the Great Depression incomes slipped to $800 per year - if a worker was employed. My parents were fortunate to have two incomes during the depression. My Mother was a teacher and took a pay cut from $100 per month to $80 so that jobs could be retained. My Father managed highway construction and earned over $225 per month plus overtime. State government jobs like these were highly coveted.

Edited October 17, 2020 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, RWB said:

The IRS numbers are for persons paying income tax.Average annual income was $1,200 to $1,500 and most families had one income, not two as is common today. In the Great Depression incomes slipped to $800 per year - if a worker was employed. My parents were fortunate to have two incomes during the depression. My Mother was a teacher and took a pay cut from $100 per month to $80 so that jobs could be retained. My Father managed highway construction and earned over $225 per month plus overtime. State government jobs like these were highly coveted.

My grandmother worked in the garment district in NY and my grandfather dug ditches.  Not sure about what they were paid, I'll ask my aunt.

I didn't know until a few years ago -- long after both had passed -- that my grandfather actually moved and worked in Virginia for 2 years (1933-35) while my grandmother stayed in NY with my aunt and waited for my father to be born in 1935.

Amazing what you can learn about your family that you were never told.  My aunt actually told me that, she's the keeper of the family secrets and history, not my dad.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/21/2020 at 5:12 PM, RWB said:

I wonder if this lengthy thread has readers from other message boards? I ask because members have asked some excellent, thoughtful questions and those questions might be a lot of help to other collectors. Maybe GoldFinger1969 should assemble a PDF "booklet" he can send out?

Roger, this is why I asked about saving entire threads because based on Dena (the NGC's moderator) recent posts, I got a bit scared that we could come here one day and find the Forums shut down permanently or even temporarily.  Or maybe someone posts OT garbage in the Saints Book thread and just that thread alone gets deleted. 

I have lots of valuable information here, and you contributed a TON of valuable posts and information (along with other posters).  No way I could recreate your answers or remember which questions I got resolved and which still need work or more research.

No matter, I saved every page as a PDF even though I had to do it 20 times.  Feel sorry for anybody who is going to save a thread that has 150 pages. 

Edited October 17, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

One possible thread saving approach is to copy the page 1 URL and paste into a list, then copy it on the next row and change the page number to " 2 " and so forth. Once you have your list of URLs, open Acrobat and have it make a PDF of each page in order. You should get a PDF for each page which can then be combined into one file. OCR will capture all the text.

[comicdonna]

Do the price of Saint Gaudens coins fluctuate when gold prices substantially rise or fall?

[GoldFinger1969]

36 minutes ago, comicdonna said:

Do the price of Saint Gaudens coins fluctuate when gold prices substantially rise or fall?

Sure, but it depends on what kind of Saint you have.

Many common, lower-graded (< MS63) Saints track bullion with the slightest of premium, sometimes a slight discount (remember, a Saint is just under 1 ounce).  But higher gradeds will trade at a premium that rises and falls over time.

Premium Saints -- like the 1907 High Relief -- trade at such a premium that unless the price of gold moves like 50% or so, you may not see it reflected in the price.  If gold moved up a few hundred dollars (let's say 20%), commons would certainly move about that amount whereas 1907 HR Saints might be unchanged to up slightly. 

Depends on how big the move into Saints is relative to bullion.

Edited October 18, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[Cat Bath]

12 hours ago, comicdonna said:

Do the price of Saint Gaudens coins fluctuate when gold prices substantially rise or fall?

Prices on lower grade coins tend to rise fast and reduce the premium on mid-grade coins (on paper)

NOW...ATS, the price listed for a MS65 1910-D is $2775 & for a 1924 in MS65 it is $2750 or only $25 less.

The pop for the 1910-D @MS65 is 1201 w/ 198 better. the pop for the 1924 @MS65 is 50,513 w/ 11,499 better.

Clearly there is something wrong with the chart. This tends to happen when the price of gold fluctuates wildly.

If dealers are following the chart, which many do, I'd recommend buying the much rarer coin.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Cat Bath

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, Cat Bath said:

Prices on lower grade coins tend to rise fast and reduce the premium on mid-grade coins (on paper) NOW...ATS, the price listed for a MS65 1910-D is $2775 & for a 1924 in MS65 it is $2750 or only $25 less.  The pop for the 1910-D @MS65 is 1201 w/ 198 better. the pop for the 1924 @MS65 is 50,513 w/ 11,499 better. Clearly there is something wrong with the chart. This tends to happen when the price of gold fluctuates wildly. If dealers are following the chart, which many do, I'd recommend buying the much rarer coin.

1924's in MS65 at 2,750 ? That's a 44% premium to spot gold, I think it's way too high and I see plenty of MS65's asking LESS than that on Ebay which tends to be high on price.

I see active Ebay bidding at about $2,300 for an MS65.  That's about a 20% premium which is where they have been on average the last 8-10 years or so.

So....the overall and relative (to the 1010-D) price is definitely lower for the MS65 1924.  As it should be, given the populations you cited.

Edited October 19, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Saint-Gaudens Premiums vs. Gold Price:  I thought I had posted this in this thread, but I guess not.

 

[Henri Charriere]

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Saint-Gaudens Premiums vs. Gold Price:  I thought I had posted this in this thread, but I guess not.

 

The watermark on the charts suggest reliance on an authority I am unacquainted with but -- no offense intended -- the information it imparts is nebulous.  What those interested in these artifacts want to know is a lot simpler: What was the price of gold in just the past hundred years?  And what was the corresponding value of Double Eagles at each interval in MS-63 condition.  We all know an number of variables skew the results.

[GoldFinger1969]

32 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

The watermark on the charts suggest reliance on an authority I am unacquainted with but -- no offense intended -- the information it imparts is nebulous.  What those interested in these artifacts want to know is a lot simpler: What was the price of gold in just the past hundred years?  And what was the corresponding value of Double Eagles at each interval in MS-63 condition.  We all know an number of variables skew the results.

FYI, you can delete the graphs if you just wanted to respond to my text.  Just makes the thread easier to follow if big klunky graphs aren't recreated and quoted.

I don't know who put the data together but it's a simple chart with 3 data points with no timing or data bias.

I detect a couple of trends from the chart, which aren't 100% hard-and-fast but generally apply (maybe with a lag):

• Premiums jump in anticipation of a rise in gold prices and/or Saints (late-1990's, 2008-11)
• If the gold price rise stalls....then the price of Saints flatlines (obviously) and the premium tends to fall much much harder and faster.
• You have a 3rd Derivative of volatility at work:  gold is a volatile commodity.....Saints trade on gold plus the numismatic premium....and the premium can rise or fall faster than both.
• Premiums are sticky to the downside (folks want to believe gold will rise again and/or buyers/dealers in Saints don't want to lose $$$).

[Henri Charriere]

10 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

FYI, you can delete the graphs if you just wanted to respond to my text.  Just makes the thread easier to follow if big klunky graphs aren't recreated and quoted.

I don't know who put the data together but it's a simple chart with 3 data points with no timing or data bias.

I detect a couple of trends from the chart, which aren't 100% hard-and-fast but generally apply (maybe with a lag):

• Premiums jump in anticipation of a rise in gold prices and/or Saints (late-1990's, 2008-11)
• If the gold price rise stalls....then the price of Saints flatlines (obviously) and the premium tends to fall much much harder and faster.
• You have a 3rd Derivative of volatility at work:  gold is a volatile commodity.....Saints trade on gold plus the numismatic premium....and the premium can rise or fall faster than both.
• Premiums are sticky to the downside (folks want to believe gold will rise again and/or buyers/dealers in Saints don't want to lose $$$).

Thanks for the clarification.  We live in volatile times with a great deal of uncertainty.  I forsee a correction for profit-taking, already in progress... with a bull market to follow.  But we've both heard talk like that for years.

[RWB]

The graphs are cute but rendered almost meaningless - the "grades" are just  letters and numbers not associated with any defined standard.

Derivation of the red line is not evident from the other two lines. The relationship should be Coin Price : Gold Price. (I assume the "gold content" really means "gold spot value of gold content.")

[GoldFinger1969]

7 hours ago, RWB said:

The graphs are cute but rendered almost meaningless - the "grades" are just  letters and numbers not associated with any defined standard.

MS65 is the lowest of Gem Mint State.  It's usually the level that most want in premium coins because it is halfway to the mythical 70 grade along Mint Way.  

7 hours ago, RWB said:

Derivation of the red line is not evident from the other two lines. The relationship should be Coin Price : Gold Price. (I assume the "gold content" really means "gold spot value of gold content.")

It's the difference between the gold price and the Saint-Gaudens coin.  Then it's expressed as a % of the coin price.

Edited October 23, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

"MS65 is the lowest of Gem Mint State."

I understand what is meant; however, "MS65" is not objectively defined. Ergo, nothing based on that term can be independently verified.

[GoldFinger1969]

42 minutes ago, RWB said:

"MS65 is the lowest of Gem Mint State."  I understand what is meant; however, "MS65" is not objectively defined. Ergo, nothing based on that term can be independently verified.

Well, we know it's Mint State (never circulated).....65 means (to me) no major gouges on either side, and no more than 4-5 dings or scuffs in each of the fields.

If by "objectively defined" you mean have the TPGs or even ANA ever said that you can only have so many of this or that marks before you grade lower....no, they have never done that.  I think they've only "objectively defined" MS70 -- perfect, no marks of ANY kind.

We can probably quantify how many marks are allowed on each side by sampling a few and then maybe count them up.  Won't be exact, but you should have a range.

[RWB]

RE: " I think they've only "objectively defined" MS70 -- perfect, no marks of ANY kind."

I recall reading that the major TPGs don't even agree on that definition. Mark can clarify that.

[GoldFinger1969]

4 minutes ago, RWB said:

RE: " I think they've only "objectively defined" MS70 -- perfect, no marks of ANY kind."

I recall reading that the major TPGs don't even agree on that definition. Mark can clarify that.

Maybe, but I think it's pretty close.  You might be right about the definitional difference....if a coin is struck and has a blemish from the striking process (which admittedly is extremely rare today)....I think it can grade an MS70 as opposed to a perfectly struck coin which is bagged or handled such that it gets 1 or 2 dings.

[RWB]

Just now, GoldFinger1969 said:

Maybe, but I think it's pretty close.  You might be right about the definitional difference....if a coin is struck and has a blemish from the striking process (which admittedly is extremely rare today)....I think it can grade an MS70 as opposed to a perfectly struck coin which is bagged or handled such that it gets 1 or 2 dings.

Yeah, something like that. Personally, I accept only the "perfect as it comes from the dies" definition.

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, RWB said:

Yeah, something like that. Personally, I accept only the "perfect as it comes from the dies" definition.

With regard to objective standards and quantifying each grade level (or at least providing a range).....as most of the coins I collect are either large moderns, Saints, or Morgans....it's easier for me to visualize grading (even though I am still a novice, IMO) than if I were looking at dimes and pennies and other small coins.  Don't need to use magnifiying lens to see stuff on the fields and devices.

Which is nice. 

[Henri Charriere]

Speaking strictly for myself, I do not believe I was able to fully appreciate the Mint State spectrum until I obtained several MS-67 examples (none have been graded higher in my particular series) and examined them at length with a vintage high-power loupe to familiarize myself with near-perfection which enabled me to have some inkling as to the intricate challenges faced by graders in rendering their respective opinions.  The only way I can reconcile my own feelings about the opinions rendered is to accept that an obverse can differ, sometimes significantly, from the reverse but in the end the entire matter is one of a degree of scientific objectivity over artistic subjectivity.  And if a representative of the Sultan of Brunei is the apparent owner of the merchandise under study, I can only hope a soft-spoken gentleman like Just Bob will be available to present a plausible explanation at a private consultation that will achieve the desired result acceptable to all parties.

[GoldFinger1969]

Quintus, what coins do you largely collect ?