World Colonial

On 8/1/2021 at 1:51 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I guess alot of heavy-hitters don't know one another and they think that the proverbial and promised "bidding war" will lead to higher net proceeds even after paying a 12-20% commission. 

I think the auction houses provide great services and I believe in paying-up for quality (access to lots of buyers/sellers, historical archives, write-ups on coins, historical reseaerch, etc.).  I realize all that doesn't cost nothing, so someone has to pay for it.  

But I think commissions can come down a bit with more competition as we are seeing with GC.

If you are selling a really expensive US coin, the commission isn't 10% to 15%.  It's noticeably less from what I have read on coins forums.

If you are selling typical expensive US coins maybe in the $5,000 to $50,000 range, these coins aren't hardly ever even scarce.  I'm not sure there is much incentive for many collectors to buy it in a private transaction.  I don't know what most other collectors think about this option.

With South African Union which used to be my primary interest, I concluded years ago that most of the rarest and hardest to find coins do sell this way.  There are many coins (proportionately) which to my knowledge have never sold publicly or do very infrequently. I'm not referring to just scarce coins based upon grade, but the coins collectors want to buy the most.

Some might have sold through local dealers but on one occasion, I asked one of the more prominent ones how often they had sold the 1931 silver in better grades and their answer was none of them.  This was around 2008 and they have been in business since the late 60's.  Another collector summarized offers from dealer price lists (the better known dealers) over several decades.

Still ZERO for the 3P, 6P, shilling, florin and half crown, except in low or very low grades and even them still almost none.

On 7/30/2021 at 10:15 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Second,  “the aggregate prices realized for U.S. rare coins sold at major public auctions in 2020 totaled nearly $369 million. The aggregate total was $325 million in 2019; $345 million in 2018; and $316 million in 2017.”  I don't know what "major public auctions" indicates and it might not include regular sales, either.   If the Heritage figures are correct, and if you strip out non-U.S. coins, the bulk of their sales must be U.S. rare coins and I would think with Ebay and other online firms that the figures cited above should be HIGHER.  Thoughts ?

 

I read the article.  I was initially thinking he was referring to sales of US coins but you are correct, it's auction coin sales within the US.

I don't consider the above numbers impressive, not for recent history.  If accurate, it's equivalent of two to maybe four high profile paintings.  The trend isn't noticeably increasing either.

The numbers seem somewhat low.  I have not read it recently but Heritage used to provide a press release on their website and elsewhere with an annual breakout of their volume.  My recollection was that their sales alone exceeded the amounts Garett reports.  However, it would also include turnover not attributed to auctioned lots.

My thinking of the article that it's primarily financial promotion.  I get his point that it matters to coin buyers due to future resale.

It's a good thing, but to a point only for those who are primarily buying as a collector, as opposed to "investor".

Ultimately it comes down to personal preference but I have decided to minimize the number and type of coins I buy that will need submitting later to market it properly to recover my money.  Yes, this means I don't like most coins enough to buy it.

Right now, I have two submissions pending with one recently returned.  The one returned was under the "World Standard" tier which cost $38 each (X2), plus a $10 handling fee plus the return shipping by registered mail.  I valued these two at $1150, though one came back in a lower grade than I hoped.  I don't intend to sell either but the one below my expectations, I'll crack it out if I do, as it's now worth more out of the holder than in it.

The second submission is for a regrade due to a spot appearing to develop in the holder.  I intend to file a claim under the grading guarantee if it comes back in a lower grade or as a "details".  I have to pay a $30 conservation fee, $38 grading fee, handling fee, and shipping.  Total is about $100 for a coin I valued at $1200, if it comes back with the original grade.

The third submission has five coins which I valued around $1750.  Two will grade under "Standard" and three as "World Economy" which costs $22.  The combined cost will be about $300.  I would have preferred not to have these coins graded, only conserved so that I can see what the coins look like first.  However, NGC discontinued that option since the last time I submitted.  Yes, it's another annoyance, as it potentially means I will end up with one or more "details" coins which I would never knowingly have graded.  I might have before but the cost is too high now.

I presume the grade is due to the clutter in the fields.  It's a nice looking coin and I would prefer one with darker surfaces over a bright untoned one with less marks.  Good strike too.

On 7/24/2021 at 10:11 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Appears there could be tens of millions of sports cards (mostly baseball) that people want graded and there simply aren't enough graders to handle things.  Backlog is 1 year and growing and they're not even taking new submissions:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31244566/hobby-searches-answers-psa-grading-services-halts-card-submissions

It's the equivalent of the public emptying out their change jars and sending most or all of it to the TPGs.

I have a friend who handed her deceased husband's stash to hold for her.  I have no idea what is in it as I have not looked and would need to research value.  She needs the money but I would have to front her the submission fees, as she hardly has two nickels to rub together.

I wasn't aware the backlog was this large.  By the time everything in the queue gets graded, it's possible the bubble will have burst.  It's going to burst one way or the other because most if not practically all of this stuff is very common and a lot more common than currently evident.  Already 316 GEM-10 Jordan rookie cards selling in the high six figures is common as dirt for a collectible in this price range.  Almost certainly many more out there too.

Not to my knowledge.  Not only is the cert number necessary to verify an NGC ocin, so is the grade. 

What you are describing seems to require the ability to click on the population count and have it expand to display every coin graded at a particular grade.  Nice idea but don't see it ever happening, even assuming every coin was imaged which it isn't.

On 7/19/2021 at 5:05 PM, VKurtB said:

Hrrmph, I thought Walloons were balloons that you rub on your shirt to build up static electricity and then stick them on the wall, hence walloons. Note: I have not tried this in Alabama yet. I suspect too much humidity. 

For those who do not know, one of two nationalities in modern day Belgium.  Flemish is the other.  

On 7/19/2021 at 8:52 PM, VKurtB said:

I’m not anywhere near as troubled by the Fed’s 2% inflation target as you are, because flat or increasing money values (aka deflation) disincentivize current investment and lead to wealth hoarding (THE gold problem), the rest of your analysis is spot on. 

You seem to be referring to the macro economic aspects.  This in and of itself is not that important to me.  If it didn't have such unequal and inequitable effects by picking winners and losers, I would be indifferent. 

My primary objection is how it impacts the individual who is just trying to live their life and plan for their future without being forced to participate in a financial casino to preserve their living standards.

On 7/19/2021 at 8:23 PM, VKurtB said:

Really really SOUND rant, over all.

Thanks, coming from you, I especially appreciate it.

On 7/19/2021 at 3:48 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

 I know I am being out of line here, but would it be bad form, as long as you are in the vicinity, to inquire as to your thoughts on BvN, and whether 🎶 you would be in favor of granting him a pardon based on the information and sources cited, and, yes, responses elicited thus far from fellow members earlier in this thread?  I am curious because you have a curious thought process that encourages independent thinking. ] 🤔

Yes, I think he should be pardoned, based upon what I know.

I don't believe he ever should have been charged, period.  It's not because I support his protest position.  I'm also not a metal fanatic, don't own any gold or silver now other than through my collection, never owned a single liberty dollar or any "coin" like it, and don't ever intend to buy one either.

It's because I consider the case farcical, selective prosecution of a victimless "crime" and hypocrisy at its finest.  It's a penny ante “crime” where I didn't read a single post here even claiming a single person suffered any loss or injury.  This is why I stated the government’s motivation should be obvious (a politically motivated prosecution) to anyone who will look at the situation impartially.

I see it as the government pretending to prosecute a consumer protection case claiming to protect potential “victims” even as it simultaneously intentionally defrauds every USD holder (hundreds of millions of them) indefinitely through institutionalized inflation.

Don’t believe me?  Read the Federal Reserve’s “stable price” mandate where they communicated their 2% inflation target over time.  What they are actually telling everyone is that they are committed to stealing (what else exactly is it?) from anyone who earns their income in USD and holds USD assets, each and every year forever.  

If this case was such a “vital” public policy interest, why didn’t the government do anything about it earlier and why were any liberty dollars returned?  The best explanation is what I wrote in my prior post.  The real purpose of the case was sending a message to anyone who will even think of challenging the government’s money monopoly.  

There is no similarity between a liberty dollar and circulating US coinage.  Designs look nothing alike, the size differs, and there is no (and never has been) $10 or $20 silver circulating coin.

Any public confusion with circulating US coinage is mostly attributable to the continuous design change since inception of the SQ program in 1999.  Whose fault is that?  There is no reason to believe most of the public can recognize most post-1998 quarters and dollar coins which actually do circulate, as opposed to the liberty dollar which does not.  Many if not most collectors can’t do it offhand either. 

To anyone who claims otherwise, there is this tool - the internet - which provides confirmation in minutes.  Using it is not a hardship on anyone who is so clueless to be confused by a liberty dollar, if they have any functioning brain cells.  We are using it now on this forum and most Americans use it, all the time.

As to why this comparison is relevant, the liberty dollar is irrelevant to literally virtually everyone in this country.  Conversely, government intentionally systematically debasing the currency is relevant to practically every American.

This real crime is institutionalized theft, regardless that it is “legal”.  It’s “legal” plundering of the citizenry; hundreds of billions to trillions annually, depending upon how measured.  Anyone else here can call it whatever they want to rationalize their position if they disagree with me. 

But then, the next thing I am going to hear is that two different acceptable standards of conduct makes complete sense, one for the private citizen and another for the government official, right?  This Bizarro world contradiction is totally justified in the name of "public policy" as in these matters, the responsible government agencies and their lackeys in the economics profession are infallible.

OK, rant over.

On 7/18/2021 at 8:27 PM, VKurtB said:

Even more than monetary policy, there is a great deal of evidence that the thing that debases currencies the most is war.

It is both and one compliments the other.  I don't believe it is mostly war now because US military spending is a much smaller component of government spending and economic output than it was elsewhere in the past. Credit also plays a much larger role now too, by enabling the population to afford things and pay prices they otherwise could not.

What you state has been true historically elsewhere in the past.

On 7/18/2021 at 9:48 PM, VKurtB said:

Largely, yes. The pursuit of “guns and butter”, as economists put it. Or as one I studied under put it, “we pay half the people to create garbage, and the other half to haul it away.”

This is my explanation for it today, though those who favor these programs will often deny it.  There is a lot more "butter" today in the government budget than "guns".  It's become so extreme now that even if the entire defense budget were eliminated, budget deficits would still be at unprecedented levels outside of a few time periods (Civil War, WWII).

Another factor is that much of the defense budget is spent outside the US and doesn't directly contribute to inflation in the US.

On 7/18/2021 at 3:06 PM, coinman_23885 said:

The government didn’t need an excuse. While one of the theories was based on him attempting  to circulate his currency, another was based purely on similarity in motifs, legends, inscriptions, etc., to U.S. coins.  Whether the similarity was sufficient to violate the statute is a question for a jury or judge sitting as a fact finder. (Ironically I would have ruled against the government with respect to the similarity argument.) He had his due process and lost  that issue. That is the risk various individuals take when they attempt to play coin god and strike their own coinage.

As for the law, the Constitution plainly grants Congress the power to establish weights and measures, coin money, regulate value thereof, regulate commerce, punish counterfeiting, and all implied powers necessary to effect those enumerated powers. Even the states are barred from producing their own coins/currency. Most of these provisions are reactions to problems that arose under the Articles of Confederation where multiple states/entities performing governmental functions created chaos and arguably instability. The federal government has used its powers to establish a monopoly (logical given that coining money has historically been a governmental function) to provide stability to one national currency to facilitate commerce. The government has enacted laws using these powers which Von Nothaus violated. He was very much convicted of a “real” crime.

I have a general idea of what you are telling me.

Interesting that all governments debase the currency to steal the value of the citizenry's labor and property yet it is perfectly "legal".  That's my definition of a real crime which is a huge order of magnitude compared to the issue discussed in this thread.

No, you don't need to tell me you disagree with me.  I can infer it from your reply my post.

Anyone who confuses a liberty dollar for USD is a insufficiently_thoughtful_person.  @VKurtB stated it above I believe and I agree with him.  It's not anyone else's obligation to protect a insufficiently_thoughtful_person from their own ignorance or stupidity and this has nothing to do with me being a collector, as even non-collectors should be able to notice such an obvious difference.

The best explanation for why he was charged is that the US government won't tolerate any challenge to their monopoly and used that woman attempting to deposit her "coins" as an excuse to do it.

In other words, my explanation is that he was charged with a political crime, not a real one.

On 7/14/2021 at 9:23 PM, VKurtB said:

Make no mistake!!!!! The banking system believes (correctly IMO) that enabling coin roll hunting is NOT THEIR JOB, or certainly not their responsibility. 

Exactly

It's a nuisance accommodation to customers who are usually barely profitable or likely cost them money.  It's my inference that most bank customers either cost banks money or make them very little.

18 hours ago, VKurtB said:

I wonder how ol’ Bern decided an ounce of silver was going to be 10 Liberty Dollars. No matter how, it had to be arbitrary. That’s my quarrel with Bernie. He got caught up in an ideological mess that he hadn’t thought all the way through. Being knee jerk ant-fiat very quickly entraps you in arbitrary decisions. But ol’ Bern is STILL a hard currency true believer. I give him points for consistency. 

Unless value is referenced to itself as it is with all fiat currency, it has to be arbitrary.  

The "historical" gold silver ratio of about 16-1 was arbitrary.  So were the exchange rates under the Bretton Woods system.

Relative values change, all the time.

12 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wonder how much of this was a need for a more liquid currency (BX stock) for CCG higher-ups 

I can see this for both CCG and CU.

12 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

BX's wide moat globally helps expand their business lines (though I'm not sure how).  

I can see this as part of the strategy too but predominantly outside of coins.

12 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I know lots of foreign countries could use standardized certifications and authentication services, but it's not their most pressing needs (financial stability, property rights, etc. all higher-up for most countries).

Well, actually they do not.  TPG is a necessity for financialization of any mass produced hobby segment but has very little to do with actual collecting.  Even with counterfeits, this is predominantly a problem due to the inflated price level caused by financialization. 

Prior to TPG, the price spreads between grades for most world coins weren't financially meaningful and still aren't now.  While US collectors will pay meaningful spreads for one point increments on the Sheldon scale, collectors elsewhere mostly don't and will not.  It's my inference (an obvious one) that most of the increase in price spreads between grades is caused by US collectors, not anyone else.

US coinage had problems with counterfeiting pre-financialization (before the 70's) but that's because the price level was always an outlier versus other markets and it was profitable to counterfeit common but still (relatively) expensive coins, such as 20th century US key dates.

Outside of US coinage, it's an increasing problem but once again, t's only worthwhile to counterfeit anything if being a counterfeiter produces an acceptable ROI or you can make a living at it.  Most world coins aren't worth the bother of counterfeiting, due to the low price and also being too scarce.

11 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

The 1849 was a regularly-issued coin I believe, but J-1776 (the Liberty Head $20 DE) is a true pattern.

1849 DE is included in the Red Book.  That's how most collectors know it.  It's also listed as Judd-117 in Judd and Kosoff's "US Patterns, Trials, and Experimental Pieces".  Or is in the copy I own.

I don't know if J-1776 is in the Red Book.  It wasn't to my recollection in earlier editions, 1998 and earlier but might be wrong about that.

There are numerous patterns listed in the Red Book which in the past at least were not clearly identified as such.  This creates the false impression it's a rare or at least scarce regular mint issue which in the past affluent collectors did or might have included in their definition of a complete set.  The best example is the 1879 Flowing Hair Stella included in type sets.  It's actually a relatively common pattern with a mintage of 400.

28 minutes ago, RWB said:

No, only that is a decreasing segment of the total information consumer market have routine USB or CD/DVD access.  I would have preferred to include a CD with the book but it appeared that would have limited access of book buyers who wanted to search subjects.

Notebooks I use at work have not had a CD drive for years.  The PC tower I bought for myself recently has both.

2 minutes ago, Alex in PA. said:

Then who will have access to ALL your information??????????

Exactly, that's the point.  Not like there will never be any breach or unauthorized disclosure.  Or "channel surfing" sys admins.  No, of course that would never happen.

Maybe a minor negative for numismatics. 

I'm waiting for the day when the only consumer option will be storing data in the cloud and computers won't come with hard drives  or USB ports anymore.

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

.99.9% of every year's production was used to settle trade and commerce dealings.  So you would expect there to be a greater familiarity with American gold coins among some foreigners (at least the propertied and wealthy or upper classes) than even among Americans -- with their bankruptcies and financial panics and currency debasements, they were more likely to hold U.S. gold coins than Americans themselves.

That was then and this is now.  I don't know how much familiarity those living outside the US have with classic gold coinage but I would infer "not much".  It seems to have ended up mostly in bank reserves from what I know, or maybe a few safe deposit boxes among the wealthy.

22 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's also got a great backstory which adds to the allure, IMO.

These other coins, you have to be a numismatist or close follower to understand the appeal, rarity, etc......with the 1933 Saint, everybody kind of knows the story about how most were melted and the "theft" and subsequent legalizing of the 1 coin.

It's accurate that more recently, US collectors became more familiar with the circumstances surrounding these coins (some of it probably fiction but that's even better).  More recently being around 2002 when it last sold.  Prior to that, I'd rate it as predominantly just another entry in the Red Book to most US collectors, though not to those who could have bought it.

With the world coinage, it's predominantly only known by collectors where it originates, by relatively few collectors in the US, and on occasion, elsewhere. 

As an example, probably just about every South African coin collector is familiar with the origin of the Veld pond (a low mintage but available coin) or the 1898 "Single 9" pond (a unique "pattern" and their equivalent to any coin like the US 1933 DE).  Almost no one else has ever heard of either, just as coin collectors outside the US have mostly never heard of the 1933 DE, contrary to the sentiments you'll read in the US numismatic press and US coin forums.

The difference is that the US is the largest coin market (larger than all others combined by "market value"), is more financialized than any coin market, and has an outsized number of highly affluent buyers (relative to elsewhere) who have a history of paying higher prices.  Concurrently, since most collectors have a demonstrated preference for coins from their own country, that's why US collectors will pay current prices for US coinage but almost never from anywhere else.

2 hours ago, RWB said:

Ahhhh...you've never seen a Chinese merchant in full form.

I would like to take credit for the above quote but cannot