World Colonial

On 11/10/2021 at 9:02 PM, Conder101 said:

If you were to use Registered mail you MUST use private insurance.  Because while Registered mail is extremely safe for shipping within the US, once it leaves the country you can't guarantee the security measures and the MAXIMUM pay out by the post office if the package does get lost is $49.  Doesn't matter what the declared value and postage fee paid was, $49 is it.

Correct, this is my prior experience.

I prefer the coin to look the way it is "supposed" to look which varies by series.  For my primary series, I prefer toned though I do own some that are not.

On 11/7/2021 at 3:28 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I have a great research piece on Gold pricing and factors affecting supply/demand, but we can't post PDFs here for som reason.  

Like every other asset, it's ultimately psychological.  No one can support the current market price of any asset based upon the so-called "fundamentals" because the outcome isn't based upon a formula.

We can only compare relative prices over time versus other assets.  This tells us whether the asset is relatively cheap or expensive but nothing more.  This should be evident given current valuations which should make it obvious that today's environment is the biggest aggregate bubble in the history of civilization.

For gold, any attempt to measure valuation by its utility is also destined to fail.  The psychological component comes from it's role as a monetary substitute.

Concurrently, this doesn't mean that just because of unprecedented "printing", that gold is currently "cheap" or destined to head "to the moon" either.  The ultimate purpose of money isn't to acquire other forms of money (gold for fiat currency) but tangible goods and services that people need and want.

By this standard, gold isn't cheap but on balance, expensive.

On 11/7/2021 at 6:14 AM, TonerGuy said:

And how does it work with raw coins that are submitted ? Can you send raw coins, get them graded and put them on a reserve price? Do you pay a restocking fee and their grading fee if they dont sell ? Or do you have to keep them on GC until they sell ?

Raw coins - my understanding is that they will submit it for the consignor to NGC or PCGS at a reduced rate but have not done it myself.

I have sold through them twice.  I sold with no reserve so everything sold.  However, my recollection is that if you place a reserve, those that do not sell are included in subsequent sales though don't remember the number of times.  I don't recall if there is a fee for unsold lots.  There was a $3 fee to list each coin.

On 11/6/2021 at 7:29 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Honestly, I never even considered if the move would make economic sense. I thought this was simply a logistical matter of shipping valuables, irrespective of reason, from Point A to Point B and an open solicitation for advice.

However, the above excerpt from your comment was an eye-opener. I no longer collect U.S. coins and was unaware a). there was less demand for them  overseas, and b). the prices overseas run lower! 

I personally don't see any advantage in moving a collection there is little demand for, but this is a call the OP will have to make.

I appreciate the clarification.  🐓 

Yes, I was assuming OP only meant shipping the coins but covered both anyway.

More generally, for the US based collector with any collection of "meaningful" value,. I don't think it makes much sense to sell it outside the US either.  There may be exceptions but I do not know any.  Most coins are as or more liquid and easier to sell in the US than anywhere else.

Personally, unless I was going to die with it elsewhere, I'd leave it in the US or sell it.

One other point, if I did move my collection, I'd consider hand carrying the coins I liked most.  Drawback is that it would probably increase the likelihood of paying import duty.

With the OP coins though (since I now remember what he collects), this might be to his advantage.by declaring the sheet value for untoned coins if he chooses.  Can't do that if shipping unless you want to take the risk if the coins are lost or stolen.

Do you have to pay an import duty?  You might want to confirm first.

I don't collect US coins (at all) but if leaving the US, would not bother with a US collection.  (Not sure I would even move mine.)  You'll just have the trouble of shipping it back if you move again to the US.

In Europe, you could also consign to a European auction firm but you should assume you will realize a lower price, maybe a noticeably lower price because very few aside from Americans  collect US coinage above a nominal value,

Since they do not, there is no market for US coinage at anywhere near US prices outside the US.

The other reason I wouldn't bother is because there are very few US coins which are actually hard to buy back, outside of arbitrary criteria.  There is usually going to be "slippage" in selling and then buying back, so I would consider this first before any prospective sale.

If you do decide to ship, I would use USPS Registered Mail and ship it to yourself, using private insurance if necessary.

On 10/30/2021 at 5:13 PM, Alex in PA. said:

I just got these off EBay.  Lowest price and up:   I really expected much higher.

Morgan S & D    =  $119.00

Morgan P            =  $125.00

Morgan CC         =   $174.95

Peace                  =   $159.99

Not to me.

I did read prices were higher earlier before the coins shipped but each has a (minimum) mintage of 175,000, which is comparable to the TPG counts for the most common real Morgan and Peace dollars.  Slightly scarcer but the difference isn't meaningful and presumably (as I have not checked) comparably priced up to MS-65.

The above prices aren't cheap for what is actually being bought.

On 10/31/2021 at 11:09 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

He can always split a table -- lots did it at the last FUN I attended.  Cuts your costs down alot, especially if you can drive there.

If you want your best shot at getting inventory, a place with 600 other dealers certainly stands out ! 

That might work if travel costs are limited or minimal.

My understanding is that most dealers make their money off bullion sales and buying cheap from walk-in traffic in their local store.

When I was a YN in the late 70's, local B&M supposedly paid 60% of Red Book with one noticeably lower.

Economics differ for on-line sellers and very with type of material.

Last year at the Atlanta ANA, I had dealers ask for the first time, though I hadn't been to a show in seven years, since the last Atlanta ANA.  I did bring some coins but asked too much and received no counteroffers.  (None of it is US.)

In today's market, I don't think I'd have much trouble selling what I want to get rid of, except for South Africa which I wouldn't sell to a dealer anyway.

I'd rather try to sell to another collector and avoid the intermediary.

On 10/26/2021 at 10:58 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What about going to bigger shows ?  FUN ?  Big regionals ??

Sounds rather expensive for someone new and part time.  Partly depends upon location for travel costs but table fees are presumably (noticeably) higher.

On 10/25/2021 at 10:48 PM, VKurtB said:

This is SLIGHTLY related to the current controversy in competitive exhibiting. (Not registry sets - that’s unrelated) The current standards use the R scale to determine a rarity score (1-10). It is almost IMPOSSIBLE for a U.S. Coins exhibit to EVER score above a 2 or 3 on a scale of 1-10. The guy who made his reputation exhibiting Lincoln Cent Matte Proofs by die state (!!!!!) (complete) was getting 2’s and 3’s for rarity and he was losing his mind. He was confusing rarity with affordability. His stuff was ridiculously expensive, but in the R scale, not really rare per se. The guy had well over half a million dollars invested, most of them finest known grades, or one away, but technically they are not rare. His “condition” scores were top notch, but not “rarity”.

What you are describing is a function of the outlier price level.  By traditional criteria (such as Red Book rarity), there are a large number but low proportion of rare or scarce US coinage but most or all are hopelessly beyond the financial reach of practically all collectors.

This thread has gone off topic (again) but by any sensible standard, no coin which can be bought any day of the week is even close to being rare.  Any coin which can be bought near "market value" (not at a "stupid money" price) on "relatively short notice" is at most modestly scarce.

This is to be expected since coins are mass produced objects and those which are somewhat less so are almost always made for collectors (proofs, NCLT).  The coins I collect which are a lot more difficult to buy than practically any US (partly due to price) aren't absolutely rare either. 

DUPLICATE

On 10/25/2021 at 10:19 PM, zadok said:

...reinforced my previous comments on modern (20th-21st cent) coins re not being "rare"...not exactly sure if u meant to say morgan branch mint proofs? perhaps u meant branch mint proof like morgans?...

yes, that's the one.  PL not proof.

On 10/25/2021 at 2:26 PM, zadok said:

..."scarce" or diff to find mite be a better choice of word(s) to use in this regard....

The only Morgan dollars which are actually rare as a date/MM are branch mint proofs.  Otherwise, as VAMs, in grade or PL/DPL/DMPL.  Without even looking, I know I can literally complete the entire proof series by date tomorrow or even on eBay right now.  Probably buy each one up to a PR-65. 

I don't remember the mintages for all offhand but recall from about 600 to slightly over 1000.  Probably between 300 to 500 for each date (at minimum) remain.  When I have looked in the Heritage archives, seems each one sells about 10/year and I'd guess at least 10% of the survivors (around 30-50) of each date sell every year somewhere.

The 93-S in MS, yes it's somewhat harder to buy.  Not sure I can find one all the time but it still can almost certainly be bought in a "few" months or slightly longer at most.  (Sooner with the right dealer connections.)  The rest in MS would only be "difficult" when applying very narrow criteria, like the 86-O in 65 or 66 (three or four combined last I checked) while over 300 are recorded in the combined pop to my recollection (some duplicates) in MS-64.

On 10/25/2021 at 7:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Wow, 20% spread between bid-ask ?

That would be like gold trading $500 higher to buy than to sell.  It's normally $20-$50 or so. 

Yes, and that was "low", the lowest I remember for 1oz back to March 2020.  It's somewhat better for larger bars.

Gold has been in the $100 range for 1oz to my recollection, somewhat more per the prior post.  Definitely not less.

Let's face it, physical metal liquidity has declined substantially since COVID hit.  It's the best explanation fitting the data.

The metals are supposed to be liquid but aren't, relatively.  And to anticipate any reply, any one of us can sell plenty of other assets (including many coins owned by member here and PCGS) for a comparable spread to "market value".  It's easy enough to do - fast - if the price is reduced enough.

As one example, right now, unless you own a complete dump or it's in a place no one wants to live, housing has a better spread than silver.  If discounted, won't take long to sell either  About the only reason it takes longer to sell now is presumably title insurance.  You can waive the inspection and pay cash.

On 10/25/2021 at 12:51 PM, VKurtB said:

I read that Rosland Capital has a 30% buy/sell spread IF you leave your metals with them!!! They charge extra “fees”, in addition to shipping, if you want to hold the metals. Yeah, I gotzta get me summa dat action, mmm, mmm, mmm. Bullion “investing” is a scam.

In the past at least, to my recollection the Perth Mint (parent company, not the marketing arm which most know) did not charge a mark-up for unfabricated metal which had to be stored with them.  It wasn't stated, but my assumption was/is that the buyer is actually providing inventory financing.  So the buyer owns it but since it's stored with them and unallocated, they use it until sold or delivery in coin form.

This was years before COVID but back then, the premiums were still stupidly high.

On 10/25/2021 at 12:49 PM, 124Spider said:

I'm not sure about "All Morgan dollars are common."  There were only 880 1895 Morgans released by the Philadelphia mint, all proofs.  They are rare by any standard.  Add to that the fact that Morgans are a very popular series to collect, and that coin is included in all albums, and I think you end up with "rare by any standard."  And the 1893-S certainly is rare in mint state.

The 1895 is a proof but it's not rare either.  It's not rare compared to other contemporary proofs and anyone can buy it any day of the week.  Popularity is independent of rarity.  That's demand.  I believe Coin Facts estimates between 50-60 MS 93-S.  It's rare by US standards but not otherwise.  There are a huge number of coins with similar or lower number, including probably most US dated earlier than this coin.

On 10/25/2021 at 12:49 PM, 124Spider said:

And I question (only on general principles) the statement "Comparing it [1942/41] to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison."  It seems to me that a reasonable definition of "rare" for coins involves some combination of number made, survival rate and demand, independent of whether it is a "standard issue" or not.

There must be over 250,000 coins ever made, at minimum: date, denomination, mint mark, design, origin.  Practically all have varieties.  I'd guess that a Judd R-5 with 31-75 survivors is the norm with predominantly US and European coinage as outliers, mostly from 1850's onward.  So at least several million die varieties where the vast majority are probably rare by most US collectors' definition.

Demand may explain why a coin is more or less available and easier or more difficult to buy given the same approximate survival, but that's almost always due to price.

The reason I provided my prior comments is that you seem somewhat mystified by the current market value of this coin.  Is it really underpriced given what it actually is as a collectible and what I am telling you?  It's not scarce, anyone can buy it except in the (near) highest grades at any time, and there are plenty of other coins which most collectors consider a lot more interesting. 

I'd call it one of the most overpriced coins on the planet and not relatively cheap even compared to other comparably priced US coins either.  I hold the same opinion for every single one of the common most widely collected US key dates.

I expect most if not every single one of these coins to be (big) proportional financial losers in the coming decades.  Outlier prices due to prior communication limitations which remain completely detached from the collectible merits. 

It won't matter to most reading my post (absent "unexpected" economic changes) but take a look at the long term price history of Lincoln key date cents.  That's what happened to every one I checked except the 55DDO, adjusted for price changes.

On 10/25/2021 at 12:36 PM, Alex in PA. said:

Now on KitCo   Gold = $1808.40    Silver = $24.61

At Pinehurst Coin:   AGE BU = $1,916.85

                                         ASE = Type 1  $40.34

                                                    Type 2  $36.34

 

I mostly check golddealer.com.  Lowest spread I saw was about $4.50 between "bid" and "ask", but wasn't 2021 ASE.

Last time I checked, silver spreads were still awful.  Not as bad as earlier post-COVID but still higher than I recall previously for a long time.  By a long time, probably excluding when spot was below $5 or near it.

Someone has got to be a die hard bull to be willing to immediately accept a 20%+ "paper" loss out of the gate.

On 10/23/2021 at 3:36 PM, 124Spider said:

But I am a bit mystified as to why some very expensive coins aren't rare (e.g., semi-key date Morgan dollars), and some fairly rare coins aren't so very expensive (fairly high-grade 1942/41 Mercury dimes).

None of the coins you have listed are rare, though US collecting uses qualifiers such as TPG label, CAC sticker, and specialization in its definition of "rarity" and "scarcity".

All Morgan dollars are common because the coins did not circulate as widely as lower denominations ($1 was a lot of money for most people at the time), the mintages were not low (no, 100,000 for the 1893-S is not "low"), and a large number were stored for decades by the government. 

A coin like the 42/41 dime isn't really "fairly rare".  It's a die variety which happens to have high demand due to inclusion in price guides, TPG registry sets, and albums.  Compared to other die varieties generally even from comparably dated US coinage, it isn't scarce.  Comparing it to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison.

Generically, coins are relatively rare or scarce due to the mintage and the number of (roughly) contemporary collectors who saved it.  There are (and were) a large number of US and European collectors, so these coins tend to be more common.  Quality of survival is more of a random event as in the past, what passes as one or multiple point increments in TPG labels wasn't usually (if at all) important.  Similar idea at one point for mint marks and specialization.

On 10/20/2021 at 4:12 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

True, but you would need two strong men and a pole with a sufficient diameter to lift and move it.  I don't remember the museum I saw it in,  but have never forgotten it -- and have never known anyone to have one.  I'd bet half the people on the Forum never saw one and the other half never even heard of them.    

Only in pictures but never directly.

On 10/20/2021 at 2:55 PM, zadok said:

...i think it was 19 sept 1999 when i sold all my old wheaties boxes, that must have started it n snowballed from there...but seriously u r totally correct, even as far back as 1981 when one carat D color IF diamonds got up to $65-70K per carat the speculation/investment market has never restabilized n reset to normal, seems all the get-quick-rich-over-night guys just move from one bubble to the next, sort of like fishing on a big pond n they just move from one place to nother looking for next school of suckers...was only a matter of time before it got to numismatics n the un-learned coin "collector" to provide them their new fish....

The 1966-1982 bear market in US stocks (measured by prices changes) ended at or around August 13, 1982 at 777.  This was also the approximate start of current financialization era.

I date the start of the current mania to either April 20, 1994 or November, 1994 when the Dow hit 3570 and (around) 3675.  This was the start of the 90's mania which initially peaked in January/March 2000 and has yet to end.  A total detachment from financial and economic reality where all major asset classes rotated through over valuation leading to where we are now with the greatest worldwide asset mania of all time and the loosest global aggregate lending conditions, ever.

The hangover from this excess is yet to come.  Recently, I had the "audacity" to write similar comments to those I have previously written here on the PCGS forum.  I haven't checked back since my last post but it wasn't favorably received. 

As for diamonds, I have a "how to investment guide" from the early 80's, somewhere.  My recollection on the price of blue DD flawless is similar to yours, if it's the same stone.

On 10/18/2021 at 6:26 PM, VKurtB said:

Crypto is utterly dependent on the “greater fool” theory. What it has going for it is that EVERYTHING digital is awash in excess quantities of fools, both greater and lesser. Anyone remember the first dot-com bubble?

The dot.com bubble effectively never ended.  The 2000-2003 bear market never even came close to correcting the excesses of the time which were still the greatest in history even then.

Then it got bigger leading up to the GFC where these excesses were never even close to being corrected either.

Now, here we are about 14 years later with an even greater mania.  It's all the same mania dating at minimum to 1999.

On 10/16/2021 at 4:10 PM, gmarguli said:

I'm not a fan of crypto. It's a scam where the only value it has comes from the bigger fool.

The money supply is controlled by the governments. Why would they allow real competition? Right now it's kids playing with small amounts, but if it ever became a threat, the governments would stamp it out quickly. 

Besides, why do I need another digital currency? I have US dollars. I can pay anyone electronically in a matter of seconds. Crypto just adds unnecessary risks. 

Late to this thread and didn't read all the posts but yours is as good as any to add my thoughts.

There is no practical difference between a national currency cashless society and crypto currency.  Only in the issuer.  So if anyone thinks a cashless society is so great, they might be for it.  I'll pass on that once in a lifetime opportunity.

The obsession with crypto currency (exactly what it is) is simply another aspect of the existing asset, credit and debt mania.  The one we are in now and have been since at least 1999.  It's lasted so long, many or most people think it's "normal".  That's where ridiculous ideas such as "new normal" and that there really is something for nothing originate.

I am in favor of currency competition but underestimated how volatile it will be.  No currency which fluctuates so radically as of any of the most widely (and presumably all) traded crypto currencies will ever be used as a payment method at any meaningful scale.

I also agree that all governments with any incentive to protect their currency monopoly (all of the largest economies) won't allow any serious challengers. 

The only way any crypto currency not issued by the US government is going to replace the USD is if the government loses it's power of compulsion over money.

The only way I can see that happening is if the US as we know it ceases to exist.

On 8/20/2019 at 7:21 PM, Conder101 said:

And if it didn't, then everyone who wants one has it.  No aftermarket and price falls until it gets low enough that a few more people are willing to shell out that lower price.  The cycle continues until the price drops low enough that the number of people willing to pay that price exceeds the number available.

A mintage of 999 or anywhere near it isn't remotely low for something like that.