World Colonial

Total pass for me.  Another totally uninteresting trinket passing as a coin.  Far better uses for $286.

On 10/12/2021 at 3:38 PM, zadok said:

true....but i still think national championship game could be 'bama vs georgia unless the bracketing doesnt allow it to happen....

I live in ATL but can't stand either team.  I also think both are head and shoulders above all others, unfortunately.

Had a recent discussion last week with a co-worker who is a UGA fan.  I told him I thought UGA would save some surprises for the championship game, assuming both were undefeated.

Now with Alabama losing, I'd go for the "knockout punch" in the SEC title game to eliminate them from the CFP.  Florida is the only team left on the UGA schedule with what I consider a realistic chance to beat them, I don't think they will. and don't believe any other team they will face can match up against them either.

On 10/12/2021 at 2:22 PM, VKurtB said:

Funny that, if I had to collect by shipping, I wouldn’t be collecting. Too many nightmarish outcomes. For my more oddball material, well, I go to 4-5 major shows every year. And that’ll do. 

I presume a few coins I really wanted to buy might have been available at shows I did not attend which was most.  However, most of my primary set has come from auctions supplemented by a few coins from dealers and eBay.

It's come to the point now where my only option will likely be approaching dealers to find it for me.  This year, I have bought one coin and was outbid on two.  Nothing else showed up which I wanted to buy.

The reason I have arrived at my current state is a combination of factors.  Most coins don't interest me anymore.  Even if it did, I'm not paying current prices which I deem excessive for such ordinary material and this applies to both US and non-US. Selling is also less predictable (in my recent experience) than it used to be.

Years ago, I could have put together a high quality decent sized secondary collection on a modest budget (high four figures to maybe slightly over $10k) on coins I used to buy or others I might have bought.

No longer.  In another thread, I gave an example of a coin I bought in 1998 for $45.  More recently, Stacks sold four from slight over $700 to $900.  Not happened to everything but nicer quality (this was MS-64) is more than I am willing to pay.

I'm not paying this type of price for what I describe as undistinguished mediocrity.

On 10/12/2021 at 1:16 PM, VKurtB said:

Beginners in this hobby are being “taken” every day, but not just by fakes. Also by real coins at obscenely marked up prices. To me the MAIN feature of the Internet is as a scam enabling system. 
 

Right now, when seemingly everybody has lost their ability to think rationally, I STILL insist on doing buying in person, eye to eye. 
 

Want to keep it “old school”?  I’m your huckleberry. 

It's partly a result of the financialization of the hobby.

But to your second point, if I insisted on buying my coins in person, I would not be collecting.  I'm never buying the coins most collectors do and those I want to buy aren't available like that.

On 9/2/2021 at 3:36 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

What got my goat was including EF with FDC. The other three did not help matters any. Think about it. Only one coin, a chart of equivalencies, and five widely disparate grades making a mockery of a coin with questionable attributes. I am really feeling sorry for our brethren who fell for this one...

I think of a European FDC as MS-66 or better but have never bought a coin graded as one.

A British or Spanish EF is probably a US (mid) AU but not consistent in my experience either.  In another thread, I mentioned a 1607 or 1683 Spanish coin graded by Calico as EBC+ which NGC graded MS-65.  I bought one from Calico which graded MS-63.  I actually thought it might grade higher but it has a small dark spot.  It also looks to have high point wear ("cabinet friction") which US grading seems to ignore.  It's still much nicer than the vast majority of the MS coins for this type I have seen.  Very good strike and very nice color.  Luster might not be quite good enough for a higher grade though.

Not sure there are grading standards (of any kind) outside of some European countries and UK/Commonwealth countries.

US collectors through the TPG have imposed the Sheldon scale on world coinage, even when it doesn't make any sense.

Where there are grading standards, I don't recall seeing it by series as with US coinage.  The only foreign guide I own (equivalent to the Red Book) is for South Africa.  No grading standards in there.  Those I have seen in auction catalogs describe the grading scale, but not the application.

In the example from the OP, I'd never consider an MS-63 equivalent to FDC.

On 8/25/2021 at 3:20 PM, 124Spider said:

Yeah, I have long understood that for non-common coins.  But it surprised me to see that happening even for quite plebeian coins at the top of the grading scale. 

The price variances are actually much bigger for common coins.

Look at the coins with the highest collector preference.  You'll see that the price spreads are much lower or the lowest.

Examples of really common coins with inflated prices are recent sales of "top pop" Mercury dimes and that Franklin half.  I can't remember the dates but someone else here might.

Conversely, coins like the 1796 quarter have narrow spreads because it's in high demand even in the lowest grades or a "details" holder.  It's a coin that's always had strong demand.  It didn't require marketing to get there.

On 8/22/2021 at 11:37 AM, 124Spider said:

I don't have many uncirculated certified coins, but among the ones I do have are four GSA Morgan dollars, graded MS64, MS63, MS64+ and MS63.  For the life of me, I cannot tell the difference among them.

You can improve with experience.

As stated above, the most important thing is to like what you buy, regardless of the label.

On 8/22/2021 at 2:40 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Learning how to grade is very difficult and subjective, IMO....and can be a bit tedious if not boring.  

Looking at a dozen variations of a coin with different markings in different locations and then seeing how they all grade out can be a bit boring to all but the most committed collectors and/or graders.

Yes, except that what you describe here has little to do with actual collecting.  It's the financial side. 

It's not interesting to the collector who predominantly collects for recreation because it isn't recreational. It certainly has zero appeal to the non-collector.

It's more like work but has become more necessary to avoid losing your shirt.  Some knowledge of grading was always necessary for anyone spending "noticeable" money but the inflated price level and pricing structure makes errors potentially a lot more expensive.

Unless it's treated predominantly as a consumption expense, there should no mystery why more aren't eager to spend a lot of money buying (US) coins.  First, you've got to learn the grading minutia between one point MS increments, + grades, and CAC stickers.   Second, try to understand and keep current with the pricing environment.

Reminds me of one comment on the PCGS forum where the contributor discussed their lunch conversation with a specialist dealer about CAC.  Can you imagine that conversation?  It's about as interesting to most collectors and non-collectors both as watching paint dry or traffic lights change.  It's a financial planning session, not collecting.

On 8/22/2021 at 2:40 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

OTOH, I love absorbing good books on coins and reading about the personalities and dealings of decades ago during the Golden Age of Coin Collecting.  

Reading books by Bowers, reading Akers commentaries on Saint-Gaudens DEs, and now Roger's updated magnus opus....it's easy and fun reading. 

Exactly

If this isn't enough to attract people to collecting, then the hobby ultimately isn't competitive for the public's time and money.  Otherwise, marketing and financial promotion will only maintain interest as long as the buyer at minimum gets most of their money back.

On 8/21/2021 at 11:55 AM, Dark Chameleon said:

I beg to differ, there are hobbies and hobbies, people have different intensity, its nice to have information to cover those intensity levels but don't expect everyone to be die hard in whatever they collect, I don't read books on funko pops but I collect them, same with metal detecting, silver coins in general, im allowed to be a collector and just advance my knowledge organically rather then drag my rear to every library or drop thousands of dollars on reading material before buying my first Indian head.

Your description is how most collectors approach collecting.

The whole purpose of a hobby is recreational.  This is what those who are taking the opposite position here forget or ignore.  With most US collectors who spend "meaningful" amounts of money, it's my inference that their primary motive isn't knowledge for it's own sake, but to protect their "investment" so that they can obtain value for what they pay and have a higher probability of getting their money back at resale.

Why would anyone expect or believe anything else? 

To insist on anything more is to turn collecting into work.  If a prospective collector had to learn what's being implied in these sentiments, there would be far fewer coin buyers and the price level would be much lower.   They would find something else to do with their time and money.  There are more options than ever and it's not like there aren't any alternatives.

As one example, the problem isn't that most collectors can't grade to TPG standards.  It's that US "collecting" has become so financialized and the Sheldon scale is one of the primary reasons for it.

On 8/20/2021 at 8:04 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

One thing that I don't read that much about:  the use of Saint-Gaudens commons as bullion subsitutes beginning in the 1970's and later by telemarketers.  Would be interested to know if folks preferred the classic coins over new ones....how the distributors obtained the coins in bulk...any pricing discounts....etc.

Since there are more of the AGE and the spreads have usually been lower, I presume the AGE.  To the non-collector, bullion is bullion.  I'm not sure if both are eligible for self directed retirement accounts but I understand no and that's probably a factor too

I don't think you will find a book covering this, maybe prior articles partly.

For my collecting, the #1 thing I want to know is survival rates and quality distribution.  I want to know what's potentially available to add to my collection.  The survey data in one of my references is useful but insufficient.

On 8/20/2021 at 3:13 PM, gmarguli said:

Most collectors can't be bothered to learn how to grade / authenticate / detect problems/alterations with the coins they collect. They've given that job to the TPG. Why would they bother to read up on the history of the coins? 

I agree with you but it should be no surprise.  Most collectors are filling holes or accumulators, not aspiring scholars or numismatists.  It's too much work.

On 8/20/2021 at 2:52 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Sometimes even wrong information can be overlooked or even prove useful, as with that apparently false story of the 1984 English Hoard of 1929 Saints which is still in the HA archives.

How relevant is this to you as a collector of Saints? 

I just read the Coin Facts entry and it estimates 943 exist, 900 as an MS-60 or better, and 45 as a MS-65 or better.  I think any collector of the series is aware the coins might be in Europe in volume and more might show up.

Let me give you an example from my primary series.  I have two references which conflict on the legitimacy of certain dates.  One book claims these are genuine and the other says not. Other books which I do not own purportedly are on both sides, at least silently..

This matters because no one wants to pay four, five or six figures for a fake coin.  Aside from the money, I would care if I  thought I had a major rarity and then found out it's a fake.  It would be a huge disappointment.

I don't really care if some anecdotal story is or isn't true, as it has no bearing on my collecting choices or experience..

On 8/20/2021 at 1:08 PM, RWB said:

Even thought its second/third hand, incomplete, out of date, false or simply a lie.....?

Yes, I am aware of it and you seem to be taking my statement out of context.  In this quote, I was specifically referring to common and widely collected US series.

What's going to be incorrect in a source like Coin Facts or an auction description for this coinage which will make any practical difference to hardly anyone who collects it?

More generally, the possibility or even likelihood that it's wrong isn't particularly relevant if it's not an area someone doesn't collect.  It doesn't mean they will want to spend even one cent for accuracy or make any effort to verify it if it has nothing to do with their collecting interest.

On 8/20/2021 at 10:32 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Would be very interesting to see how many of the Red Whitman GUIDE books they sell with each subsequent edition.

I'd like to know this data too.  It's another data point on the state of collecting.

I have never looked at any of these books.  I infer if it's your area of interest, it's quite useful.  Informs you on things like the strike characteristics, availability in different quality, major varieties and maybe the price history for each coin in the series..

If it's not your area of interest, not really.  Too much minutia.

I have a few of Bowers' books in storage I bought in the 80's.  One is for the 2C, 3CN and 3CS.  I have not read it in a long time but my recollection is that it's useful for entertainment and beginners, but not much else.  I don't recall anything in it that isn't available in Coin Facts, auction descriptions, or probably on the internet.

On 8/20/2021 at 10:24 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

For the average collector to have any book beyond the standard reference that pertains to their collecting interest/s is rare in my experience, < 20%.

I agree. 

I also don't see why anyone thinks it should ever be any different.  Why would anyone expect more than a very low proportion to spend money for reference material that has nothing to do with their collecting?  A higher proportion will read it for free but  just because someone is an avid collector for their area of interest doesn't mean they have much if any interest in another they don't collect.

Myself, there are a few books I would like to read but have not seen it for sale.  Two examples include Bowers 1822 half eagle and another author for the Getz patterns.  I also considered buying Amato's for the 1796-1797 half dollar but did not.

Some of these books are also quite expensive.  It's either out of print or the print run wasn't sufficient for demand.  I bought one of mine (one of 500) for $65 back in 2002 and purportedly it now sells for $400.  If I did not own it now, I would consider buying it anyway but never at this price (or near it) for something I don't and never will collect.

Low to very low is my assumption

Much lower outside of their areas of interest

It also partly depends upon definition of "active collector".  If it's like mine, I still say that most (over half) have very limited budgets and don't or won't spend much or any of it on anything but buying coins.

On 8/19/2021 at 12:24 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

With @RWB's indulgence, as this is off-topic, buying foreign coins directly, at higher prices, with no iron-clad guarantee the item will arrive without incident or complication, is not a risk your average collector is willing to assume.

I don't see this as much of a problem for most US collectors but I agree with you. Coin forums indicate that most spending "noticeable" amounts either prefer or insist direction inspection first too.

Most everything seems to be available for sale within the US.  I recall not receiving a coin from a foreign seller once, Noble numismatics in Australia.  They ignored me so I filed a chargeback.  The coin arrived about six months later, so I sent it back to them.

On 8/19/2021 at 10:57 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

In the 1960's, the only information we would get on coins would be from calling fellow collectors....going to the LCS and chewing the ear off the owner.....going to a local coin club or coin show.

The internet has some bad actors, but by and large it keeps many of us engaged.  I doubt I would be a serious collector without what I have learned about numismatics and gold coins and Saints/Liberty's/etc. from the internet and more seasoned pros. 

Analyzing myself, the internet seems to have accentuated my cynicism.  When I first moved back to the US in 1975 at age 10, I was always trying to go to my favorite local coin shop, even though I mostly didn't have any money to buy anything most of the time.

Now, I have little to no interest in the coins I used to like or want to buy, which were US 19th century mid circulated type (like bust halves and liberty seated).  A few yes but find it too expensive for what it is as a collectible.  It isn't interesting to me because I can buy any of it any day of the week, I'd never pay current prices for it as a collectible and with limited exceptions, don't buy coins for "investment".  The only exception I ever made was when the South Africa Union series was my primary interest.  I'd buy the ZAR series ungraded and "flip it" but that's because I knew I could make multiples of my money off of it right then.  It was virtually "guaranteed" money while it lasted.

The one thing I dislike most is how the higher price level reduces what I can buy for my budget.  My financial resources have increased noticeably since 1998, but I have not and I'm not about to increase my budget equivalently.  Reading coin forums, most others who observe the same thing seem to think it's "fantastic".  I think it totally "sucks".

As a few examples, I own a PCGS MS-64 1894 MO Mexico 8R.  It was one of the first coins I bought when I resumed collecting in 1998 for $45 from a World Coin Universe auction.  It's quite nice but common and don't believe it should be worth what Stacks will get for the four they have up for auction right now which is going to be $300 to $400+ for MS-63 and MS-64s.

Heritage also has an 1870 Boliviano NGC MS-66 selling tonight with a current bid of $2160 with BP.  That's totally nuts.  It's not common but not rare either, except for the holder label.  I have an MS-64 which cost me $120 in 2005.  It's untoned and not as nice but maybe it's worth $300 to $500 which I think is too much also.

The explanation for these prices?  The plastic, plain and simple, even for a Bolivian coin.  Both are crowns but what I'd describe as "collector" coins.

On 8/19/2021 at 10:06 AM, Numismatic, A.A.S. said:

I could just as easily find 24 positive comments compiled the same way. PMA = Positive Mind Attitude

Many of the items in the OP are duplicative, not really different.

I can think of three major positives since I first started collecting in 1975:

One: The internet makes it much easier for any (prospective) collector to find what they want, regardless of their specialty.  

Two:  More information available than ever before, much of it good but not all of it accurate.

Three: For coins which are actually scarce which is a low to very low minority, the higher price level provides more incentive for whoever owns it to offer it for sale, making it more available than it otherwise likely would be.

On 8/17/2021 at 9:00 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Some of those trends are inevitable.  We can't simply go back to the days of the 1960's when you could buy Double Eagles for $75 at your LCS and coin shows were the only way to see rare coins pre-internet.

These examples are external factors which impact the hobby.  It's an example but I don't think the price of DE really makes much difference to most collectors since the price has always been high for the collectible merits. The internet is a good thing for collecting but I concurrently infer the reduced physical footprint makes it less visible to the non-collector.  This is an inference, not "fact".

I see an inflated price level (the one we have now) which I don't believe is supported by anywhere near as much interest in actual collecting as the consensus claims or wants everyone to believe.  That's where I know many (probably most) disagree with me.  The reason they do is because to question this premise is to concurrently bring into question the future viability of current industry business model and with it, the sustainability of the "investment" collectors have in their collection.  

On 8/17/2021 at 10:52 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

There are certain segments of the hobby that are thriving and flourishing, but it would not be inaccurate to say the hobby, as a whole, is in decline. 

I don't believe anyone actually knows one way or the other. 

I believe it's declining for the coins most US collectors predominantly collected half a century ago.  The prices of Lincoln cent key dates are anecdotal evidence of that.  Concurrently, I believe interest in previously limited access segments (mostly world, ancient, and exonumia) is greater than ever, in the US.

One of the primary points I have made which is very unpopular is that the inflated prices of what are frequently actually common coins aren't representative of increased interest in collecting.  Same thing for NCLT.  It's predominantly financialization and marketing.

When a coin sells for high prices that has always sold for high prices, we can reasonably infer it's mostly about collecting.

When a coin which used to sell for relatively nominal prices (opinions will vary on the amount) sells for four figures or more, I call it mostly or entirely financialization and marketing.  It's a culture change but collectors didn't collective wake up one day and miraculously experience an epiphany where they suddenly realized the supposed merits while their predecessors in the past operated in ignorance.

Collectors outside the US overwhelmingly view collecting more closely to 60's US culture.  It isn't that they are less "sophisticated".  It's that their collecting has not been financialized.

On 8/17/2021 at 10:52 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Unfortunately, in the near total absence of brick-and-morters, there is very little in the way of circulating coins to pique the interest of your average younger person. 

The reduced physical footprint (which includes B&M) is definitely a factor.  

On 8/17/2021 at 7:19 PM, zadok said:

im truly sorry that my train of thoughts present a challenge to be understood...bit late in my life to change my manner of expressing myself...i wasnt trying to participate in a debate...my brief assertions of numbers were all obtained just by referencing simple requests for info from surveys online from the sources mentioned, i.e. the govt conducted such an economical survey a few years back, heritage, gc, stacks bowers, et al...ebay stated such a number, a few financial surveys likewise....i really dont wish to consume extreme amounts of forum space nor waking hours to dispute an assumption that neither of us can prove nor disprove, my basic point is that i take exception to ur premise that the hobby is diminishing when i observe the contrary...there is little to be gained from the two of us going back n forth on n issue no one cares about anyway, so ill just lv it at we agree to disagree n avoid this subjective issue in the future...n the thread op was upset that we were not talking bout whatever his point was anyway...

I didn't take exception to your reply.

Debates are fine.  That's the purpose of this forum, as far as I am concerned.

It doesn't bother me either than we went off topic.

I'm also ok if you disagree with me.  No problem.

On 8/17/2021 at 3:51 PM, zadok said:

u consistently under estimate the number of collectors (either intentionally to support ur assumptions or because u simply r not exposed to the population base)....most recent (last 10 years) surveys both govt n commercial, estimate that the active collector base in the US is between 10-15 million...ebay alone estimates that they have close to 1 million buyers of all levels...the major auction houses (more higher dollar buyers) report buyers in the 100-500,000 range...the various numis clubs n organizations have membership totals in the one hundred thousand range, n most membership rolls r stable or increasing as r subscriptions to the various coin publications both in print n online...true, these numbers include what i might consider investors as opposed to pure collectors, but the basic trend is increasing interest...some investment diversification, some nostalgia, historical interest, legacy/prestige etc....as i attend various auctions, conventions n associations i do not see any of the minimization of the hobby that u report, on the contrary i see increased interest n expenditures...i do not believe that a smaller number of collectors r buying a larger amount of the coins, actually i am personally observing the exact opposite...collectors i know who used to spend a few hundred dollars per year r now spending a few thousand n considering to expand their collections both in scope n grades...i dont see collectors losing money unless they r totally uninformed n not taking advantage of all of the collecting info that is out there...the global numis expenditures last year was in excess of $18 billion....i dont see this as a downward trend...

If I am going to properly respond to your posts, it would help if you would separate your replies into discrete thoughts.  I have difficulty reading what you write.

What's your definition of collector?

You're telling me there are 10MM to 15MM collectors but in your last post told me I am including those completing folders out of pocket change?  Where is the evidence there are anywhere near this number ("active") paying any premium?  If there were, the prices of most 20th century US coinage would be much higher, proportionately.  

I have estimated 2MM in my posts.  It's a guess but see no basis to believe there are anywhere near 10MM, unless it includes casual collectors who almost exclusively or entirely collect out of pocket change.  The US Mint only sells about 1MM proof and mint sets annually now.

The last time I checked, eBay didn't even have 1MM coin listings, worldwide.  I see no basis to believe 1MM US based coin collectors are buying from them with any frequency, if at all.

Heritage's website claims 1MM registered users.  It doesn't break out number of coin buyers.  Volume isn't clear to me either.  2019 report states $181MM for US auctions, $59MM for world and ancients (not clear if only auctions), and no breakout of direct US coin sales.  Market share is claimed at 55%.  Those buying at least one coin from an auction firm each year (my proxy for "regular") could be 100K but don't believe anywhere near 500K.

Have no idea about club members.  I checked a few states in the ANA directory: PA, CA and GA (where I live).  Not sure all clubs are listed but if it's close to being comprehensive and accurate, doesn't seem to approach anywhere near 100K either.  I live in ATL which has a population of 6MM and the ANA data indicates in the hundreds at most.  Sure, some may consider it a numismatic wasteland but not compared to most of the country.

Total expenditures of $18B sounds reasonable but much of it is metal substitutes: NCLT, common pre-1933 US gold, common Morgan and Peace dollars, and world gold.  Anecdotally, I conclude that those who mostly buy this coinage aren't spending much of their budget on other coins.

Lastly, if you have read my posts in the past, my comments on here haven't ever claimed US collecting is "in trouble" or the collector base is shrinking.  I have stated it's disproportionately financially motivated because that's the evidence I see, everywhere.

On 8/17/2021 at 12:36 PM, zadok said:

there is no real basis to substantiate that ur "general collector population" represents the true average collector either in scope or financial outlay per annum....just supposition, my supposition believes ur estimates of the financial expenditures of the true average collector r much higher than what u r assuming....the pocket change put in a whitman folder collector meets ur definition but the average subscribe to publications belong to clubs bids in auction collectors exceed ur definition....

The conclusion from what you are telling me is that the collector base is a lot smaller than I believe which if you are correct, collecting is even less competitive than I believe.

I have never asked your definition of "collector".  My assumption is that there must be a noticeable number (the majority) between those who (primarily) collect from pocket change and what you imply.  Most coins are low priced and the type of collector you seem to be implying isn't buying it as their primary interest.

The number of collectors who subscribe to coin publications or belong to a coin club is relatively low.  Roughly 25,000 ANA members last I heard which I presume is representative of those who are coin club members.  Maybe a small multiple subscribe to coin publications.

I've seen Heritage's registered user numbers if that's a data point you use.  I have never seen any break out for coins versus other areas.  If most registered users are coin collectors, their annual auction volume makes it evident that most are buying very little from them.  A small % (the collector you seem to have in mind along with dealers) buy a disproportionate % of the total.