World Colonial

3 hours ago, VKurtB said:

Be sure to tell that to Scott Barman over at coinsblog.ws. He's having trouble understanding.

Wouldn't be because he doesn't want to understand , would it?  No, that would never happen.

3 hours ago, FrogHopper said:

I doubt this. Collectors & dealers are a massive money generator for the mint. They just don’t want to deal with “people” in general because...well they’re government. Not too big on the people skills. 

Are US Mint employees compensated on profits and if so, is it meaningful to them?

Never heard that they are and if so, doubt it makes much difference to their compensation.  I don't believe they care about the profitability, except to the extent that it gets someone else off their back.

My guess is that they would rather deal with dealers and wholesalers because there are fewer of them and presumably less of an annoyance.

Reading coin forums and posts in Coin Week, I wouldn't want to deal with the collecting public either.  Mostly complaints where I see no possibility to satisfy most of them.  The buyers want the impossible.  They want low(er) mintage coins which are always available to them (often in multiple for "flipping") and don't lose value in the secondary market.  

7 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

But they probably had smaller denomination gold coins. 

Yes, I'd guess most would have had QE and half eagles at some point but it wouldn't surprise me if a noticeable minority did not and most did not have any most of the time either.

There were a lot of poor people at the time, even as US income and living standards to my knowledge were (among) the highest on earth, on average.

I believe the minimum wage was 25c when first instituted in 1938 (?).  That's $10 a week, or less.  Earlier though do not remember when, typical daily wage was $1, I think late 1800''s or early 20th century.  Second is a vague recollection and might not be fully accurate.

4 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

@World Colonial I frequently run into people my age today who've never seen a Silver Certificate, a two-dollar bill, a new dollar like the Ike, a "roll" of coins, a Kennedy half, or a proof coin.  But, then again, I met a woman younger than me who has never been off the slum block she was born on. Empire State Building or Statue of Liberty? She's seen them, but only in pictures. Unbelievable.

Yes, I would have thought that mostly everyone who is old enough to have used your examples when it was in circulation would have seen it..  

With the $20 gold, not sure how widely it actually circulated.  My assumption is, not much.  It was more than most people (the vast majority) made in a week or however often they were paid.  I'd also guess that at least a noticeable minority didn't even have this much in savings at the time, whether they used banks or not.  It also wasn't practical for most purchases, just as a near $2000 coin wouldn't be now.

Probably my 1770 NGC AU-53 Peru 4R.  It's the coin I would be most interested in owning if it wasn't mine now and I could acquire it from my current collection.

On 5/6/2021 at 1:16 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

And let's face it, in 1931 and 1932 and into 1933....most Americans were probably just worrying about how to survive, not about the release or non-release of gold coins.  I doubt it was even covered extensively in BARRON'S or The Wall Street Journal or NY Times.

I presume there was sufficient coverage of FDR's executive order, leading it up to it and the announcement.  Otherwise, there is no reason to believe that hardly anyone gave a hoot about whether any of these coins where available as a collectible. 

Not actually knowing, my suspicion is that a noticeable proportion (if not majority) of Americans at the time (before and during the Depression) never even saw a DE in their entire life, much less owned one.

I like both but it is a better design than the 1840-1873.

4 hours ago, RWB said:

I was thinking along more casual lines, but the other path is OK, too.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to derail your thread but not sure how to address the topic if it is going to have any practical impact.

57 minutes ago, physics-fan3.14 said:

Honestly, what I would really like to see would be some sort of professional qualification. Kind of like Wine has the "Masters of Wine" program, to both educate and certify that these individuals are top of the game. 

What purpose would this serve and how do you envision this would operate? 

Most professional certifications and designations have the effect of making it more difficult for new entrants to compete against incumbents (the equivalent of a medieval trade guild) and duping an ignorant public with a false sense of confidence. (For the record, I have three for my profession.)

I consider certification and professional designation requirements in the current labor market to be one of if not the worst developments in my adult lifetime. 

It needlessly makes it more difficult to enter or change job fields or start an independent business.  It's a gold mine for those who are sanctioned to grant the designation and the subsequently required CPE (a total scam if there ever was one) but that's a different thing entirely.

My inference from all accounts I read on coin forums and Coin Week is that the Mint's management would rather not bother with collectors and collector coinage. 

Congress passes legislation requiring them to do it but it's not something they actually want to do.  They do not view it as core to the Mint's mission and not being collector's themselves (overwhelmingly), view it as a distraction or nuisance.

If this is a reasonably accurate description, none of it should be a surprise.

1 hour ago, VKurtB said:

And if they made it “mint to order”, meaning no opportunity for “flippers”, it would likely sell LESS.

Probably

Per our prior post exchange, it's unlikely  there are (anywhere near) enough actual collectors to absorb the supply as a collectible, substantially or mostly as a substitute "investment".  175,000 for each of the five is not low. It's extremely common.  

Comparing this mintage to the supply of real Morgan dollars, the two just sold are already as or more expensive than numerous date/MM combinations in grades up to MS-66.

Are these two (soon to be five) really more interesting to collectors than Morgan dollars actually struck for circulation?  How many individual date/MM Morgan dollars are owned by anywhere near 175,000 collectors?  

Same line of reasoning for the "low" mintage ASE.  The mintage is low but the number of survivors in this quality concurrently make all of it more common than over 99% of all coins ever struck.

21 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

And the current prices, or HIGHER, maybe even much higher, are what we are going to see from now on. The old days of affordable U.S. numismatic products are gone forever. 

Shorter term, your sentiments seem to be accurate and I do not disagree.  This is why I chose not to collect US coinage when I resumed collecting in 1998.  I had a more limited budget back then but even with a bigger one now, it's not like I can afford much more that I will actually want to buy which I like much less than what I buy now anyway.  It also isn't mostly due to quality since I don't care much about hair splitting differences which I consider trivial but are an obsession in US collecting.

Just checked eBay sold listings.  Up to $325 for the "CC".

33 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

“There’s a sucker born every minute.” Countless products ran way up after issue and eventually crashed below issue price. The first was the White House commem Dollar of 1992, was it? It went above $200 shortly after issue and now it’s a bullion cost item.

If this becomes a continuing series, expect the same gimmicks currently used for the ASE to extract as much revenue as possible from the buyer (notice I did not state collector) base.

I also expect it to take "share of wallet" at the expense of the ASE.  How much will depend upon the product mix, issue price and mintage. 

There may or will be sufficient increased demand for both, but not with the current mintage for the 2021.  I consider it unlikely that any single classic Morgan or Peace dollar date/MM is owned by anywhere near 175,000 collectors.

7 minutes ago, gmarguli said:

Fall below the issue price? Now that is crazy talk. Other than practically every product it sells, when was the last time a US Mint product fell below its issue price? 

I expect these will hold up a little better than average. Look at the Buffalo dollar. It still sells for a premium and there are a lot more Morgan collectors than Buffalo collectors. 

I don't know whether it will fall below issue price but there is no direct substitute for the Buffalo dollar.  It's the only crown sized coin with this design.  Circulating Morgan dollars are an alternative to the 2021's and the novelty will be substantially diluted if it becomes a continuing series.

28 minutes ago, VKurtB said:

With virtually tens of thousands of MS70 examples that are going to be available, this will never be a tough registry coin.

I expect @Conder101 is spot on. In not all that long, these privy marked Morgan’s will sell below issue price. 
 

Coin people have great mass. Mass hysteria and mass self-delusion. 

Totally correct.

The coin is a relative novelty but not that interesting to more than a low proportion of the collector base except at a nominal price.

If the reasoning in the prior post reflected actual behavior, then the price level across the board would be much higher, since practically every coin will be "scarce" under this reasoning.

The only reason any US NCLT above a nominal price sells for current premiums is due to a substantial speculative component.  There are unlikely anywhere near enough collectors who can both afford to pay current prices and actually want it as a collectible.

With these Morgan dollars, most will want one coin where the supply is at least 175,000 for each mint mark.  Many real Morgan dollars sell for the same or less in grades of MS-64 and maybe MS-65, especially if I read correctly that these are selling for $200 (or more) on eBay right now.

57 minutes ago, Revenant said:

Yeah... that's the rub, isn't it?

It would not surprise me if in the vicinity of 50% of the collector base doesn't own a coin at or above $85.  This may seem odd to those who post here or the PCGS forum but shouldn't be to those who treat coin collecting as an alternate consumption expense, not an "investment".

I didn't have a chance to respond earlier, but to the point of the OP, these two will be somewhat interesting to a noticeable minority of the collector base, but not as a continuing series and likely only near the issue price. 

As other posts have pointed out, you can buy a Morgan or Peace dollar which actually did or was at least made for circulation, for the same or less.  This as opposed to a bullion round (that's what a .999 fine "coin" actually is) selling for a big premium to spot.

On 5/19/2021 at 8:19 PM, MsMorrisine said:

at $85 each, is it in everyone's budget?

By my definition of collector, a noticeable proportion do not and likely never will own a coin at this price point, adjusted for future purchasing power/inflation.  

On 5/19/2021 at 5:22 PM, Revenant said:

Because that's what the world and the US needs... another annual NCLT issue.

I reads it may become an annual on-going series.  If it happens, I expect it to take "share of wallet" from the ASE.

I certainly don’t trust eBay sellers asking stupid money prices

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I myself never did anything other than Ebay up to about 2 years ago.  I suspect many are learning about HA and GC and maybe even other sites.  It's fun...it's easy....saves time....you can easily justify the higher prices/commissions if you find the exact coin that in the past would have required half a dozen trips to the LCS's or Coin Shows.

I don't buy many coins anymore and seldom sell.  I used to do both a lot more but both what I see and read about eBay indicates that it's not nearly as good of an auction venue anymore.  I see mostly fixed price listings.

It's not the primary reason I changed what I collect but even if I collected something else, it's noticeable enough to change my buying behavior.  I'm not interested in buying a larger number of predominantly lower priced coins I don't even like that much and then taking a noticeable "haircut" at resale.  

This is my description of most collectors, though they may not admit it or aren't aware of it until they (try to) sell.

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Thanks WC, very informative.   I was under the impression that the actual cost per coin was much lower -- basically, around $15-$20 for the slab itself and maybe the same amount to grade.  Clearly, it's alot more.  Maybe dealers sending in hundreds weekly get a volume discount but that wouldn't apply to individuals.

Yes, volume discounts for bulk submitters.

My costs would be lower if not for the conservation but postage both ways has also increased a lot.  It can be reduced somewhat with higher volume submissions but I don't buy enough coins to do that anymore.  When the coins come back from conservation, I'll some or all back with an additional group for grading.

11 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

It might be a good sign that NGC is raising prices, just like the private equity investment in CU/PCGS.

It means that demand for grading services is increasing.  I know that those of you who actively submit are not happy, but it's a potential inflection point that we might look back on in a few years and say "Hey, in retrospect, it was a bullish sign for gold and/or coin prices."

Time will tell...........

 

What you are describing is part of the financialization of "collecting".

Since I infer you have never submitted, let me give you an indication of the cost.  This afternoon, I'm sending my first submission to NGC in several years.  Two coins under the World "Standard" tier @ $38 each and six coins for conservation, one which I have requested to be regraded.  (It appears to have developed a spot in the holder.) 

For these eight coins, about $400 to grade three and conserve five.  I want to see the conserved coins first before I have it graded because any "details" coins are possibly worth less in the holder.  But if I had the five graded now to avoid duplicate postage, add another $110 @ $22 each under the World "economy" tier.  So basically, in the vicinity of $600 when the coins are worth $4000 to $5000.  Without conservation, still around $400.

In 2005 when I first submitted, World "economy" was $15 with a 10% discount for Collectors Society members.  That's a 60%+ increase.  Somewhat less for World "standard".  Yes, I know TPG expenses have gone up but most coin prices have increased a lot less (if at all) during this time.  I don't submit as many coins as I did partly due to this reason and I don't think I am an outlier either.

The point I am making is that it's a noticeable proportion of the value of the  coins most collectors buy.  The coins they own aren't going to be appreciating substantially either anyway.  Very few collectors proportionately own Saints (or coins in that price range) as a collectible.

10 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Is that "Maximum Value" per coin or to each group of coins you submit in total ?

It's per coin.

12 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

have heard many different figures cited to discourage the routine submission of plainly common coins.  

Can you elaborate on this extract from your last post?

A PNG dealer where I live (ATL Metro) told me Heritage changed their fee structure to discourage consigning lower value coins; his claim below $250.  I don't know if this is true but this makes some sense if the margin on it is much lower.

12 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

I guess we will all just have to see how this plays out. The sad sorry truth is on the continuum of all coins ever minted, encapsulation does not make financial sense.

The second sentence is exactly my prior point in discussing this subject.  The problem for the TPG business model when comparing it to auctions is that, a coin can and needs to be sold repeatedly.  Conversely, resubmitting the same coin over and over again is a complete waste of money.  With the some coins since the "hobby" has been financialized, it's become necessary to do it due to changing grading standards, "+" grades and maybe some other factor but this is purely financial.

I already know that NCLT represents a noticeable percentage of volume but that's low margin. 

Volume of potential US classics of any meaningful value?  I read conflicting accounts.  Going by PCGS Coin Facts, it's still noticeable but doesn't seem material for TPG revenue.  Lower priced US classics it's mostly a complete waste, especially if dated prior to 1955 with the higher fee.  Same for US moderns.

World coinage?  The volume doesn't exist and most collectors outside the US don't like it, at least yet.  The overwhelming percentage isn't worth enough to make it worthwhile and the overwhelming probability is it's going to stay that way.  Ancients is even less volume than world.