GoldFinger1969

On 2/23/2023 at 4:48 PM, VKurtB said:

Now I HAVE BEEN a pro se plaintiff against governments 16 times. I argued the cases myself. I went 14-2. Good enough for a #1 seed in the playoffs. 

#1 seeds get bounced all the time.....

PALLADIUM PRICING:  Figured I'd give some thoughts on palladium prices. 

I am EXTREMELY bearish on the price for palladium and that entire white metals group.  They took off on speculative frenzy and cutbacks in Russian supplies. Palladium is basically a 1-trick pony that is used mostly in autos for catalytic converters.  That is about 80-90% of annual demand, about 10 million ounces annually.

However, with the switch to EVs, that source of global demand is going to decline every year out to 2030 and then beyond.  Plus, in the short term, U.S. and global auto production is being cut as automakers cut down to save $$$ and throw it into EV CAPX.  The U.S. used to produce 17 MM autos each year; now it is 13 MM.  Similar cutbacks globally.

Palladium rose from $500 in 2016 to $3,000 a few years ago.  I can see it going back to half the price of gold in the next few years, maybe sooner.

All PMs are speculations, but palladium doesn't face headwinds going forward...it faces a hurricane. 

On 2/23/2023 at 8:28 PM, RWB said:

Did anyone find out?

Someone tried to order it, because they PM'd me.  I emailed HA twice and got nothing.  I'll try one more time.

Look on the bright side, Roger....your book might soon be rivaling "Charlie And The Chocolate Factory" for resale on Ebay !! 

Congrats to the registry winners and participants....it's not my cup of tea but I know it requires dedication and lots of work.

Mazel Tov !!!  

On 2/23/2023 at 1:52 PM, VKurtB said:

I don’t believe reliable updated populations exist or are even possible any more. They are based on a fallacy; that resubmissions can be accurately accounted for. They cannot. This is especially so when the price “delta” between grades is significant. WHENEVER there is a “hockey stick” inflection point, I guarantee you nearly every coin at the grade below has been resubmitted, many several times. People act on incentives. 

That's a good point on the "hockey stick inflection point" but I would think feedback from the TPGs might let you narrow it down somewhat.  Even a WRONG guestimate is better than NO guestimate.

I believe way back in this thread Roger indicated he used an algorithim/adjustment factor to eliminate inflated TPG counts.

On 2/23/2023 at 7:27 PM, RWB said:

A next edition has been part of the plan from the beginning. But there have to be enough meaningful updates/corrections/additions (AKA "CRUDs") to make the edition worthwhile -- not just minor changes in populations or prices

Maybe I can make a suggestion for a new section between the annual Saint reviews.  I'll give it some thought when I re-read the book again cover-to-cover.  Those sections were outstanding and really made the book and I kind of rushed through them to get to the year-by-year Saint commentaries.  I'm actually re-reading them now since I don't have the time to do the complete readthrough at this time. 

If the 1st Edition is no longer available (?), then that makes the 2nd Edition that much more worthy even with minor changes, though I commend you for not wanting to re-do it unless it has material changes.

Nice coin, since I'm not familiar with this series I won't venture a guess.

Ah, screw it....WTF....I'm gonna say it's definitely circulated....question is does it go down to the EF category (I'm not even sure I know the difference between EF vs. AU like I do with AU vs. MS ....let's call it EF-45.  I don't think this is an AU coin even in the low-50's.

If I'm wrong, I probably graded it too high and it's even lower than EF like those G or VG or F ratings I see every now and then which I never deal with with commemoratives, moderns, Morgans, or Saints. 

On 2/23/2023 at 2:03 PM, olympicsos said:

At best gold dollars for jewelry or quarter/half eagles for gifts I would assume. 

My (great) grandparents on my mother's side did NOT keep their savings in banks until the 1950's.  I know that for a fact.  And they lived in the NYC area where they had big banks, not the rinky-dinks in Oklahoma and the Midwest.

They kept it in their house and/or in gold/silver/jewelry.

You had 4,000 banks alone fail in 1933.  Who would have trusted even Chase Manhattan or whatever it was called, or Manufacturers Hanover or Irving Trust.  MAYBE JP Morgan but I'm not sure they did retail banking back then.

On 2/22/2023 at 9:47 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Of course me and my peeps are a generation behind most here, with my grandparents (both sides) being immigrants as children in the '30's.

Yeah, you would have needed great-grandparents in the U.S. since your grandparents came here as kids (but didn't they come with your great-grandparents ?).

Whether you saw or used or saved gold coins (or even silver coins) probably was based on what you did for a living....previous experience with banking failures/economic distress...where you or your ancestors came from...and how much discretionary income you had (esp. if you had kids).

On 2/23/2023 at 12:44 PM, VKurtB said:

There was too much emphasis on populations at the time of publication. Waaaaaay out of date. It’s a very common mistake authors make. They assume that all the “good stuff” is already in the population reports. 🐂💩. Nowhere NEAR all the good stuff has been to Sarasota or Southern California. 

Then really all you need is a new edition with UPDATED populations.  That's been my beef with the Whitman Double Eagles Red Book -- pricing and populations are from 2004.  Would the book "age" better without them ?  Yeah, but it wouldn't have been as useful either when it first came out.

I hope Roger does a 2nd Edition of his Saints book down the line if new information or population changes merit it.  Even the same book with no changes except to the price matrix would be worth re-buying, IMO, if you are a Saints collector/fan.

On 2/23/2023 at 12:13 PM, VKurtB said:

Under what legal theory would a random guy be owed ANY finder’s fee? This is not the U.K. where finders are due 50% of found treasure. We are talking about state (not federal) land with federally owned goods found. He had ONE opportunity - get it first and shut up about it forever. 

I haven't tracked the case but I believe there was an oral or written agreement to share the proceeds.

Again...if the government was in the right, they wouldn't be digging up whatever they found at 2 AM in the stealth of night.  

On 2/23/2023 at 11:12 AM, VKurtB said:

And even MENTALLY relitigating those cases is an example mental mastur… well, you know. 

I found the review itself interesting in that it explained the basic legal reasoning; the review itself is very good reading as it sits in the Historical Section of the Federal Reserve Board (the reviewer is an historian there). 

The Liberty Bond holders thought they had protected themselves by demanding gold coin and protecing their 1918 purchasing power -- and they still got burned.

The book pretty much agrees with the POV's of you, Kurt, and RWB.  But it goes into detail to discuss the politics, legal reasoning, and personalities behind the gold decisions.

Came out in 2018 so it's pretty recent.  If/when I get it, I'll review.  I still have to finish the Liberty DE book, the 1921 Depression book, and Roger's FMTM re-read and RoAC.  

I need the markets to go to sleep and be flat for about 2 months to catch up on all that reading ! 

On 2/23/2023 at 10:56 AM, VKurtB said:

I knew Rick before he was on TV. He wrote what was once the definitive guide to 1950-1970 cameo proofs. It hasn’t aged particularly well, in retrospect. Lots of pretty pictures though. 

In what way hasn't it aged well ?  I believe he authored a Whitman Red Book or two....still in print, still in use.

A really good book on the entire gold abrogation cases and the politics behind it is in this book:

https://eh.net/book_reviews/american-default-the-untold-story-of-fdr-the-supreme-court-and-the-battle-over-gold/

I'll probably get it when I have time to read.  The review above gives some information that is useful on how the SCOTUS was able to rule for the government and yet claim that the gold clauses were not really violated.

On 2/1/2023 at 2:41 PM, Greenstang said:

The blob could be either a die chip or a plating bubble. Would need a photo to confirm. 
In either case, there is no added value.

Unless it's a valuable coin by itself a defect like we get asked about means nothing 99.9% of the time.

Getting the Whitman Red Book (A Guide Book To United States Coins) and other primers will explain what defects are valuable and which (most) are just distractions worth nothing.

If you want to spend more time collecting coins and learning about them, please buy the latest edition of Whitman's A Guide Book To United States Coins, also known as The Red Book which covers all American coinage to the present. 

"Depends on what the "T" stands for." - RWB

Rick Tomaska, I assumed that was the guy hosting the infomercial. 

Every show I have seen involves Double Eagles, Eagles, Morgans, or modern Morgans.

On 2/22/2023 at 8:50 PM, Sandon said:

My maternal grandparents and my grandfather's parents, then recent immigrants, operated a corner grocery store in an Eastern city during the mid to late 1920s. My grandmother told me that it was not uncommon for the neighborhood people, also mostly immigrants of the same ethnicity, to spend $5 and $10 gold pieces in that store, as well as the occasional $2.50 gold piece.  (She related that someone once spent as a cent what initially appeared to be "a little shiny penny" but turned out to be a quarter eagle.) 

We here in this country think that high inflation was 12% during the 1970's.   That meant your money lost 12% purchasing power in a year. Imagine your money losing 12% purchasing power EACH MONTH....EVERY DAY.....EACH HOUR !!   

Our grandparents and great-grandparents probably experienced this or knew of family or friends who did.  Certainly, European wars and/or Panics were the main cause of economic and financial/banking destruction.  Kleptocracies and just lousy fiscal and monetary mismangement were others.

On 2/22/2023 at 8:50 PM, Sandon said:

My grandmother claimed to be unaware of the existence of $20 gold pieces.

Not surprising....$20 was ALOT of money in the 1920's. 

An average/median workweek in the 1920's probably earned someone $30-$40.  Not many people would have $20 gold coins (as Roger has correctly stated here numerous times), anymore than most people today if you check their wallet or billfold will have it filled with $100 bills. 

On 2/22/2023 at 8:50 PM, Sandon said:

In 1933 my grandparents saved the $75 in $5s and $10s that they had accumulated. This was entirely legal, as each person was allowed to keep up to $100 in face value.  This was a lot of money to them, but they had learned in the "old country" not to trust paper currency.    I now own several of these coins, with the others having been distributed to family members. I saw and catalogued them when they were all together.  They are dated between 1881 and 1911, a mixture of relatively common dates of Liberty and Indian types of each denomination.  They all grade between XF 40 and perhaps AU 55 by today's standards, one with rim damage. They have considerably fewer bag marks than the uncirculated coins that have returned from overseas.  

Wow, fascinating !!  I'd personally value a lower-graded coin that my ancestors had saved over a more valuable one that I bought online or at a coin show.  You're a lucky person to have them ! 

On 2/22/2023 at 8:50 PM, Sandon said:

It is questionable whether my grandparents could have been classified as "middle class" at that time.  Most of their customers certainly could not have been. I've encountered a number of other people whose immigrant ancestors left U.S. or foreign gold coins that they had obtained during the early twentieth century. Gold has long been coveted by people in most parts of the world, from all walks of life. The rich might have more, but even the poor often have some.

Very true.  In my grandparents and great-grandparents case, they feared the government not being English-speaking.  But it's possible this is a generalization that isn't 100% true....I would really need to have talked to my grandmother (more so than my mother) to find out exactly what my great-grandparents (who were well-into their working years) thought about when confronted by the EO on gold. 

My grandfather and grandmother (my mother's parents) were 30 and 20, respectively, when the gold recall/confiscation hit in 1933....so they were just starting out in their careers (though my grandfather had already been at sea for years).  My grandmother's parents (not sure about my grandfather's) would have been in their 40's and 50's and in prime-working age when FDR's EO hit.  They would have had the savings/gold accumulation more so than their daughter and son-in-law, I would think.

As for my father's parents (no grandparents in this country).....well, my father tells me nothing about The Old Days , but his older sister (my aunt) is the keeper of the family lore so maybe she has something to tell me next time I see her.  Ironically, she was born in 1933. 

On 2/22/2023 at 2:23 PM, World Colonial said:

Heritage and the few other larger auction firms represent a minority of annual coin sales because the vast majority of collectors are low budget collectors buying cheaper coins.  On the PCGS forum, a coin dealer has claimed that 80% of collectors won't pay more than $300 for a single coin which is consistent with the "budget section" at national shows, last time I went anyway.  Nothing new in that.

I'm not sure I get what you are saying....you think the bulk of coin sales are not done by the auction companies ?  On a dollar basis, I'd probably disagree.  Heritage sells hundreds/thousands of items each week alone.  Maybe if you include ANY coin sale then the vast majority of Americans buying stuff from the Mint or their local bank might dwarf what I consider "true" numimsatics via sale online.

I wonder if those people sticking to < $300 coins think they are making investments in stuff that will appreciate, like the State Quarters programs ?

On 2/22/2023 at 11:44 AM, RWB said:

The open market price of gold exceeded $20.67 by 1914. There was notable agitation to raise the official price. It fluctuated over time and by 1932 was consistently above $20.67 - mostly pushed by growing commercial demand and speculators.  Would you have a similar "problem" if a few months later gold was worth $16.00 per ounce? People who turned in gold or gold equivalents got exactly the same as if they had deposited it in a bank, or bought a barrel of gherkins with it. No American lost money.

But you still were FORCED to give up something you wanted -- even if at FMV or above.

My grandparents and great-grandparents did have gold coins (not sure if DEs or what denomination) and they did give them up.  They didn't want to; my mother distinctly recalls her mother and grandmother bemoaning it all the time in the 1950's.  They knew/thought they'd be worth alot more $$$ down the line.  But they were immigrants, scared of not complying, so they did.

I wish I had been into gold and coins when my maternal grandfather was still alive.  He was born in 1903 and travelled the world with the Merchant Marines.  He probably used gold coins on and off in his travels in the 1920's and 1930's.  He was also very well-read (used to get The New York Times every single day by walking to the newstand ).  He probably had lots of stories about gold coins and maybe even Saint-Gaudens DEs. 

Sure wish I had known 30 years ago what I know today about gold, coins, and Saints.  

Roger, have you ever met Rick T ?

On 2/22/2023 at 6:05 AM, olympicsos said:

This gold confiscation is also used to hype products and induce fear to sell gold coins to this day. 

Well, you WERE forced to turn it in and sell it for $20.67 an ounce -- and then a few months later it was worth $35/oz.   I have a problem with that. 

In retrospect, I'm surprised the GOP didn't make more of a stink.  Probably still licking their wounds from getting killed in the '32 elections.

On 2/21/2023 at 11:31 PM, VKurtB said:

“A Treasure Hunter Wants To Know…”??? Who the heck cares what some treasure hunter wants? It is and always was federal (union) gold. If the FBI got it, good for them. A rare moment of doing the right thing. 

Why the lying and stealing in the dead of night ? 

Pay the guy his finders fee.  I'm not saying the gold isn't the governments.  But don't cheat The Little Guy who found it. 

Somewhat related to the OP.......the premiums on ASEs are still elevated.  If the Mint allowed more dealers to have Most Favored Nation status with the Mint and sell them....or better yet, dealt directly with the American people, the premiums would collapse.

The Mint benefits indirectly from these premiums as they can charge the dealers more and also mandate they buy other stuff/ from them.

Looks like the government/FBI is back to stealing gold from Americans once again:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-civil-war-gold-pennsylvania-dents-run/

Kurt was right, there IS lots of good gold and coin stuff in Central PA !!