Once Red-Hot....Now, They're Not: Fallen Stars 1 1

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 11:26 AM, cladking said:

Of course.  And if someone came up with a couple bags of nice pristine '09-S VDB's today it would crash the market.  

You're comparing apples and oranges.   If someone made a coin dealer buy a couple boxes of 2009 dimes they would probably end up in the till or hauled to the bank. 

Supply is supply.  What I am telling you applies to most coins.

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:44 PM, World Colonial said:

Once again assuming to know what no one can possibly know.

How many 1909 to 1964 cent collections have to come in with no later dates before you admit there are few modern collections?   

Why do you discount experience.   As a rule I don't care as much what people think they know and am far more interested in their experience.   

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:44 PM, cladking said:

This isn't possible.  There were no very high grades left by 1999 when states quarter collectors began removing a few coins. Mostly they got nice F's and a few VF's.  This is why if you could find a statistically significant sample in circulation for '69-D quarters the high end would show significant attenuation.  Without nice F's in circulation there are no coins to create nice VG's.  The nice coins are pretty much gone and what exists are heavily worn culls.   Some common dates can still be found in nice VF.  

Have you never heard of "sampling"?  This is a scientific means of discovering reality and the coinfidence level can even be computed.  I have enough experience to not care about R ^ 2 but your suggestion I can't know is wholly unfounded.  

Remember what I told you in the Swiss "moderns" thread"?

You do not understand statistics.  No one who understands it would ever make the claims you do.

You can't sample anything which is removed from the population.  You assume this hasn't happened or it's not a material factor when you have no basis for it whatsoever.

Obviously, there were no "high quality" coins for the older dates in circulation in 1999 after 34 years.  You have no idea how many coins are in collections or "change jars".  You assume the coinage doesn't exist due to your "hate" claim which is wrong.

 

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:44 PM, World Colonial said:

It's not out of balance, except to someone who projects an unsubstantiated increase in demand and exaggerates the scarcity.

No.

I am saying the demand for moderns circulating clad coinage has been growing since 1980 and accelerated markedly in 1999.  it is still growing and the supply of "retail friendly" mint sets is virtually gone.   

This is most highly unsustainable.  When mint sets are unavailable or overly pricey would-be buyers will turn to singles and old collections.  There are no singles or old collections.  UNSUSTAINABLE!

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:49 PM, cladking said:

How many 1909 to 1964 cent collections have to come in with no later dates before you admit there are few modern collections?   

Why do you discount experience.   As a rule I don't care as much what people think they know and am far more interested in their experience.   

How do you know what comes in outside your local coin shop?  You're in one or a few coin shops regularly (at most) and only in one at a particular point in time.  What do you not understand about that?

Define collector.  Are you telling me hardly any of those who bought Mint sets are collectors?  How would you know that?  

I don't discount experience.  That's not the real question. The real question, why do you disregard independently verifiable evidence in favor of your unrepresentative personal experience? 

You do it, all the time.  Your personal experience is not more representative or accurate than independently verifiable data, like industry sales records (which refute your "hate" claim) and the TPG data.  Why would I believe your experience over independently verifiable evidence?  Why would anyone do that?

Look at the availability of much older coinage (no, not 1933-1964 US coinage or 20th century world coinage) with much lower mintages with a much lower probability of survival.  You have no knowledge of it.

Edited July 24, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:53 PM, cladking said:

There are no singles or old collections.  UNSUSTAINABLE!

You just made this up.  You cannot possibly know it.  Look at the TPG populations.  Many aren't that low.  Given the prices, it's almost certainly a low fraction of the supply, except for the "top pop" and "undergrade" in some instances.

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:50 PM, World Colonial said:

Obviously, there were no "high quality" coins for the older dates in circulation in 1999 after 34 years.  You have no idea how many coins are in collections or "change jars". 

Of course I know.   It is just a bunch of simple proportions.   I watched the coins disappear from circulation over many years.  The very first was the '69-P quarter which approached 0% in AU and better by mid 1981.  The data suggest it is disappearing in F right now but I can't get a statistically significant sample to show it.  Thee are that few left and most are pretty chewed up.  Of course there are always stragglers.  These coins come from childhood piggy banks or mint sets.  They come from old washing machines in laundromats though most of these are badly corroded.  No matter how few coins sit in change jars there is always a finite chance that a coin can just go from one change jar to the next.  

Change jars are simply irrelevant because the number of coins that sit in one place for more than 20 years is insignificant.  I believe most coins that sit so long are in the safes of stores which are intended as emergency change though this is probably less common in the era of credit cards.  Very few quarters sit anywhere ever for more than 3 years.  This is how long it takes the FED warehouses to rotate their stocks of coins.  The Fed usually has around a billion quarters where most of them are brand new and minted in the lasty three years.  These coins can sit for several years but rarely do.  

Clads were made to circulate and do so very efficiently.  They wear very evenly because the government and mint rotate their stocks.  

Lots of people tell me they've had jars of quarters for decades but when I look at them there are rarely any BU coins more than three years old.  

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:50 PM, World Colonial said:

You assume the coinage doesn't exist due to your "hate" claim which is wrong.

If there are so many of these coins then where are they?  You don't find old US or Swiss in high circ grades.  Most of those you do find come from change hauled home by tourists.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:07 PM, cladking said:

Of course I know.   It is just a bunch of simple proportions.   I watched the coins disappear from circulation over many years.  The very first was the '69-P quarter which approached 0% in AU and better by mid 1981.  The data suggest it is disappearing in F right now but I can't get a statistically significant sample to show it.  Thee are that few left and most are pretty chewed up.  Of course there are always stragglers.  These coins come from childhood piggy banks or mint sets.  They come from old washing machines in laundromats though most of these are badly corroded.  No matter how few coins sit in change jars there is always a finite chance that a coin can just go from one change jar to the next.  

No, you don't know with the accuracy you imply.  No one can possibly know that.  Read up on statistics.  I didn't invent it.

On 7/24/2023 at 2:07 PM, cladking said:

Change jars are simply irrelevant because the number of coins that sit in one place for more than 20 years is insignificant.  I believe most coins that sit so long are in the safes of stores which are intended as emergency change though this is probably less common in the era of credit cards.  Very few quarters sit anywhere ever for more than 3 years.  This is how long it takes the FED warehouses to rotate their stocks of coins.  The Fed usually has around a billion quarters where most of them are brand new and minted in the lasty three years.  These coins can sit for several years but rarely do.  

Like I told you before, "change jar" can be literal, or not.

The SDB vault we're discussing in this thread, it's a "change jar".  Two posters in this thread told you they see this coinage in rolls regularly.  You ask me why I discount personal experience?  Why do you do it?

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:54 PM, World Colonial said:

How do you know what comes in outside your local coin shop?  You're in one or a few coin shops regularly (at most) and only in one at a particular point in time.  What do you not understand about that?

I've been in many dozens of coin shops all over the country.  I've talked to the proprietors and workers.   I've kept close tabs on several shops.  Why would you assume I have no experience after I said I do?  

You know you can also look at the used albums and folders in the shops.  Most of them are for older coins.  There are many ways to get information f you just keep your eyes open and your ear to the ground.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:09 PM, cladking said:

If there are so many of these coins then where are they?  You don't find old US or Swiss in high circ grades.  Most of those you do find come from change hauled home by tourists.  

Same response I received from the South African collectors I know.  They also assumed if they didn't see it, it didn't exist.

Where were all the other (world) coins in the TPG data now before it was graded?  It wasn't in your local coin shop either.

Tourists who can afford to travel internationally don't waste their time selling their FX change to their local dealer in any meaningful number.  Depending upon the coin, it's most likely in the home country or one which borders it.  That's where it was issued and mostly circulated.

Edited July 24, 2023 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:15 PM, cladking said:

 Why would you assume I have no experience after I said I do?  

I never said, not in this thread or in any prior post.

I have told you that your experience isn't representative of the probable supply because it almost certainly isn't.  If you understood statistics, you'd know why I am telling you this.

Why do you disregard independently verifiable evidence?

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:54 PM, World Colonial said:

Define collector.  Are you telling me hardly any of those who bought Mint sets are collectors?  How would you know that?  

I've never really understood the motivation of most mint set buyers.  Of course many sets were sold because people knew if they got early delivery they could sell two sets and keep three as profit.  But thew ones they kept are barely better than the ones they sold.   Sure they kept cameo SMS's but unless there was some striking difference they seemed to just select sets randomly to sell.  Some bought because it was the only game in town.  The biggest reason was that collectors wanted to keep their half dollar collections current but there were also sometimes cents, nickels, or dollars.  You almost never see a mint set with the dime or quarter missing.  

I might never understand how the mint sold two million of these each year but they did tend to be very inexpensive in the old days.  Many people simply had no access to brand new coin unless they bought a set from the mint.  

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:11 PM, World Colonial said:

Two posters in this thread told you they see this coinage in rolls regularly.  You ask me why I discount personal experience?  Why do you do it?

I love anecdotal evidence but this is more akin to hearsay until such time as they provide some sort of corroboration that these are unlikely to be mint set rolls.  

I've seen thousands of BU rolls of older moderns and they are nearly invariably mint set rolls.  

Even original rolls have little bearing on the market for moderns anyway because original rolls are rarely nice enough to sell as chBU. All buyers want nice choice rolls and most original rolls look pretty awful.  There are more varieties and a few Gems and not all moderns appear in mint sets so original rolls are "important" without having much effect on supply.  There are even some dates with more Gems than mint sets but this is the exception.  Most rolls are awful and most dates don't appear in rolls.  

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:22 PM, cladking said:

I've never really understood the motivation of most mint set buyers.

Well, what can I tell you.  I don't understand how you can possibly come to your conclusions when your belief directly contradicts how collectors behave and the non-collector's perception in so many ways.

The US Mint claims it sold millions of these sets in the past and still sells hundreds of thousands now.  Since the sales volume has collapsed from prior decades, I assume that most buyers are what we'd consider "casual" collectors, but I don't know that definitively.  The fact is, they bought it, so I assume they wanted it.

Regardless, given the numbers previously sold, even with abnormally high attrition, the number and quality surviving by any sensible standard cannot be considered low.  It's only "low" by comingling it with your inflated future demand.  Demand is demand.  i disagree with you on future demand too, b ut that's something else entirely.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:17 PM, World Colonial said:

Same response I received from the South African collectors I know.  They also assumed if they didn't see it, it didn't exist.

At the risk of showing my confusion on all the back-and-forth .....can't we assume with bequests, estate sales, and a rising price that should attract hidden hoards...if we haven't seen it by now, chance are BIG QUANTITIES -- not talking about isolated coins -- are NOT forthcoming ?

Paul Green said as much in Numismatic News a bit over a decade ago.  Not that hoards wouldn't be forthcoming, but the LIKELIHOOD of future 1908 No Motto Wells Fargo or 1983 El Salvadore/MTB Hoards coming out are unlikely.  He also mentioned small denomination hoards over the decades and rumours of folks with tens of thousands of them like the 1909-S VDB cent.

I'd love to post the article but I can't attach PDFs here !!! 

Edited July 25, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:29 PM, cladking said:

I love anecdotal evidence but this is more akin to hearsay until such time as they provide some sort of corroboration that these are unlikely to be mint set rolls.  

Talking about a double standard.

Their claims are hearsay but yours aren't.?

What difference does it make whether it's a mint set or not?  No one claimed it's one of your "gems" or even stated a specific quality.  Not that hardly anyone cares about it aside from you.

The two posters I identified aren't ignorant.  

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:29 PM, World Colonial said:

Demand is demand.  i disagree with you on future demand too, b ut that's something else entirely.

There is insufficient supply for a "mass market.

It is just this simple.  The last of the available supply is disappearing through sale or tarnish and the demand continues to grow year after year.  The current situation is unsustainable.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:29 PM, World Colonial said:

The US Mint claims it sold millions of these sets in the past and still sells hundreds of thousands now.  Since the sales volume has collapsed from prior decades, I assume that most buyers are what we'd consider "casual" collectors, but I don't know that definitively.  The fact is, they bought it, so I assume they wanted it. Regardless, given the numbers previously sold, even with abnormally high attrition, the number and quality surviving by any sensible standard cannot be considered low.  It's only "low" by comingling it with your inflated future demand.  Demand is demand.  i disagree with you on future demand too, b ut that's something else entirely.

40 and 50 and 60 and 70 years ago.....there was NOTHING else to do, besides play baseball or go bowling or whatever. 

No internet...no social media...no video games (!).  Everybody I knew collected baseball cards or coins or stamps.  Or 2 or all 3 of them.  NOBODY I knew didn't collect at least one of them.

Today, most of the youngsters I know don't collect ANY of them. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:32 PM, cladking said:

There is insufficient supply for a "mass market.

It is just this simple.  The last of the available supply is disappearing through sale or tarnish and the demand continues to grow year after year.  The current situation is unsustainable.  

Yes, it's unsustainable because of all your premises which have nothing to do with how virtually anyone collects, right?

In some instances, you don't even collect with this imaginary behavior you attribute to imaginary collectors and fictional dealers.

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

At the risk of showing my confusion on all the back-and-forth.....can't we assume with bequests, estate sales, and a rising price that should attract hidden hoards...if we haven't seen it by now, chance are BIG QUANTITIES -- not talking about isolated coins -- are NOT forthcoming ?

Paul Green said as much in Numismatic News a bit over a decade ago.  Not that hoards wouldn't be forthcoming, but the LIKELIHOOD of future 1908 No Motto Wells Fargo or 1983 El Salvadore/MTB Hoards coming out are unlikely.  He also mentioned small denomination hoards over the decades and rumours of folks with tens of thousands of them like the 1908-S VDB cent.

I'd love to post the article but I can't attach PDFs here !!! 

You're referring to a specific coin or series, and one that isn't even representative of (US) collecting.

Most collectors or non-collectors will never own a (US) gold coin in their entire life.  It's above their budget level.

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:34 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

40 and 50 and 60 and 70 years ago.....there was NOTHING else to do, besides play baseball or go bowling or whatever. 

No internet...no social media...no video games (!).  Everybody I knew collected baseball cards or coins or stamps.  Or 2 or all 3 of them.  NOBODY I knew didn't collect at least one of them.

Today, most of the youngsters I know don't collect ANY of them. 

Yes, I agree.

This has been one my primary arguments against the claims in this thread.

[cladking]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

At the risk of showing my confusion on all the back-and-forth.....can't we assume with bequests, estate sales, and a rising price that should attract hidden hoards...if we haven't seen it by now, chance are BIG QUANTITIES -- not talking about isolated coins -- are NOT forthcoming ?

Paul Green said as much in Numismatic News a bit over a decade ago.  Not that hoards wouldn't be forthcoming, but the LIKELIHOOD of future 1908 No Motto Wells Fargo or 1983 El Salvadore/MTB Hoards coming out are unlikely.  He also mentioned small denomination hoards over the decades and rumours of folks with tens of thousands of them like the 1908-S VDB cent.

Paul Green reported on a great number of world moderns that are highly elusive.  He didn't report as much on countries where the demand could soar as the economy created more and more middle class with the finances to build collections.  So far most of the explosive growth has been in countries with lots of new collectors but in the longer term there will be countries where the coins are just that scarce.  

People have always assumed all moderns are common but the reality is some moderns are excruciatingly common and most others are scarce or rare.  Most of the '50's era Greek coins have ended up in poundage but try finding these in XF.  They are not at all common in grades higher than F.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:36 PM, World Colonial said:

You're referring to a specific coin or series, and one that isn't even representative of (US) collecting.  Most collectors or non-collectors will never own a (US) gold coin in their entire life.  It's above their budget level.

He was also talking about small denomination U.S. coins, including 1950's and 1960's coins.  If you can find it, it's Numismatic News....January 13, 2010 by Paul Green.  I'll try and find the link.

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:40 PM, cladking said:

Paul Green reported on a great number of world moderns that are highly elusive.  He didn't report as much on countries where the demand could soar as the economy created more and more middle class with the finances to build collections.  So far most of the explosive growth has been in countries with lots of new collectors but in the longer term there will be countries where the coins are just that scarce.  

Once again, limited collecting isn't caused by a lack of affluence.  It's irrelevant whether this person said it as it's factually false.

This is so obvious it's hard to believe it even needs to be stated.  On one occasion, I estimated the market value of the "better" South African Union and ZAR coinage.  These are their "classics".  This was five years ago or somewhat earlier, at most.

The result?

My guess is $30MM to $50MM.  At the 2011 peak, maybe $200M.  Yes, for all of it, except patterns which are mostly apparently unavailable.  That's a rounding error in the context of the financial market, real estate, and liquid "wealth".

With the Bolivian Republic decimals I collect, one moderately affluent collector could buy up the entire supply by themself.  yes, one person.   That's how small these "markets" are.

The biggest mystery is why so many believe this logical fallacy.

[RWB]

Pioneer gold imitations made using copy dies.

1908 DE from the "Wells Fargone" hoard.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 4:58 PM, RWB said:

Pioneer gold imitations made using copy dies. 1908 DE from the "Wells Fargone" hoard.

What about ?

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2023 at 2:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

He was also talking about small denomination U.S. coins, including 1950's and 1960's coins.  If you can find it, it's Numismatic News....January 13, 2010 by Paul Green.  I'll try and find the link.

I can't prove most 1933-1964 US coins exist in very large supply in one place, but it's not meaningful.

Take the 1964 or any slightly older quarter.  This coin presumably didn't circulate hardly at all, so unless it was mass melted, most of it should exist in "high" quality.

Yes, practically all of it, whether it is visible to the market or not.  It has to be somewhere.

[RWB]

On 7/24/2023 at 5:52 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What about ?

Heavily promoted. Now duds...as in your thread title.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2023 at 6:44 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, practically all of it, whether it is visible to the market or not.  It has to be somewhere.

You're saying that ALL or VIRTUALLY ALL small legal coinage in the last 60 years still exists ?  Wasn't some taken out and destroyed over time ?